[Korea's North Korea Strategy] IV. Mid- to Long-Term Possibilities for Inter-Korean AI Cooperation and Korea's Strategy

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxqyN7vmM88&si=KCOLwZJX-3DoXpwZ

Video Transcript

Possibilities for Inter-Korean Cooperation in the Field of AI and New Approaches

Hello, I am Choi In-ho. Today, I would like to discuss what the medium- to long-term directions for cooperation between North and South Korea in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) might be. As many have already pointed out, the current situation has made immediate cooperation quite difficult due to the adversarial nature of the two Koreas, leading to constitutional amendments and new corrections. Therefore, I understand that we have organized this forum, but one might wonder what this has to do with AI. AI is bringing revolutionary changes across all economic, technological, political, and security fields, not only in Korea but globally. However, one of the aspects that is not easily understood is how North Korea views AI and what activities it is undertaking in relation to AI.

I would like to point out that there are more interesting changes and possibilities in the medium- to long-term context than one might expect. The terms I would like to propose conceptually are 'preemptive engagement' and 'symbiotic establishment.' Preemptive engagement means that it is difficult to do something with North Korea immediately. No matter how much we want to engage, it is challenging as long as North Korea maintains its stance as an adversarial state. However, we cannot just sit back and do nothing. If there are observable medium- to long-term trends in the field of AI and potential opportunities to engage with North Korea, we should prepare for engagement in advance. Secondly, symbiotic establishment means that since North Korea has adopted an adversarial stance, South Korea also needs to undergo a certain shift in thinking.

Until now, our long-term goal has been unification, and while the direction is changing, there has been much thought about creating a peaceful relationship through dialogue with North Korea. South Korea has continuously shown efforts to actively bring North Korea to the negotiating table. Given that the adversarial relationship between the two states has just begun, such efforts may yield limited results compared to the costs involved and could even backfire. Rather, it is essential to understand the unique situation that necessitates a certain degree of unavoidable separation and distance, and to build a minimal level of trust that does not take an adversarial form, allowing for mutual coexistence.

North Korea's Perception and Policy Trends Regarding AI

It is necessary to establish a strategy based on this. I thought about how to view the issue of AI cooperation with North Korea through these two keywords. Looking at the level of AI discourse in North Korea, while it is difficult to know their specific AI policies immediately, we can find through sources like the Rodong Sinmun that their discourse is not significantly different from that of other countries around the world. North Korea also recognizes that AI is bringing revolutionary changes across all fields and that falling behind in this competition could lead to serious long-term problems. This awareness seems to have been present since the late 2000s. In terms of foreign policy, the issue has already emerged as a realistic problem rather than a distant future concern.

In the 7th Congress of the Workers' Party in 2019, it was stated in the five-year plan for scientific and technological development that artificial intelligence, big data, information technology, and space industry are very important tasks. In a speech at the Supreme People's Assembly in March this year, Kim Jong-un emphasized that national efforts should be directed towards developing scientific and technological capabilities with global competitiveness, recognizing the AI industry as a national development task. Kim Il Sung University is restructuring its Department of Information Science into a Department of Artificial Intelligence and is actively planning to utilize data in fields such as medical AI and unmanned attack systems.

Structural Limitations of North Korea's AI Development and International Cooperation

However, the problem lies in the structural conditions that North Korea currently possesses. As Mr. Lee Jong-min just explained, there are many vulnerabilities in the adversarial aspects, and in this context, North Korea lacks the conditions to keep pace with the AI revolution. Moreover, due to the nature of the North Korean regime, securing the capabilities required for AI is structurally difficult. The most significant issue is that the closed system exacerbates this challenge. Since it is already publicly closed, AI can only develop through data accumulation, training, and the use of advanced models, but all such channels are blocked.

They have blocked themselves, and the sanctions led by the UN have further restricted them. They are attempting to loosen these restrictions somewhat by cooperating with Russia and China in the economic sector, but even that is very limited. For example, North Korea recognizes the need for generative AI models like GPT and has conducted AI experiments with 50,000 Korean materials. However, this is a very small amount of data compared to global model standards, and the reference materials are also limited to reports from OpenAI's GPT.

Additionally, one of the technical achievements obtained through AI is a paper on fine dust prediction, but due to a lack of data, they reportedly used Beijing data indirectly. The translation tool 'Nongma 1.0' also operates only in a limited manner through North Korea's internal internet network. In terms of indicators, North Korea is significantly lagging behind. The critical issue in hardware for AI development is the supply of electricity, and North Korea has only about 4.4% of South Korea's electricity generation capacity, making it difficult to establish proper data centers. Looking at the UN's e-Government

Index (including AI), North Korea ranks almost at the bottom. Compared to South Korea, the United States, and Russia, North Korea's AI cooperation is at a level that is almost non-existent. In most indicators, North Korea ranks nearly last or is not even measured. To overcome these difficulties, they have no choice but to rely on cooperation with China and Russia, and there are some aspects that can be achieved to a certain extent. Through cooperation with Russia, AI utilization technologies in the military sector have been somewhat disseminated, and in a recent statement, AI was specified as an area of cooperation.

With China, there have been introductions through surveillance technology cooperation, and since the deep learning technology developed in China is open source, North Korea can adopt it if they wish. However, there are rational limitations. They cannot bring in advanced AI foundation models through Russia, and even China's deep learning technology is difficult for North Korea to use freely due to their lack of openness compared to China. There is still no evidence of widespread adoption.

Moreover, the structural gap in AI that will inevitably widen in the long term is a significant issue. Globally, the investment levels in AI are overwhelmingly led by the United States and China, and assistance from China is also very limited. As AI models have entered a stage where they can self-correct, the gap will widen even if they remain passive. This is especially true as AI enhances its capabilities to produce knowledge necessary for the entire industry.

Ultimately, it is difficult to keep pace with the AI revolution structurally. However, this does not mean that North Korea will collapse as it did when attempts were made to induce regime collapse in the past. Rather, the inability to keep up with the AI revolution will lead to a continuous decline in state functions. Problems may accumulate, such as the resurgence of tuberculosis. Tuberculosis is a field where diagnostic capabilities can be enhanced using AI, but North Korea lacks the capacity to strengthen its health capabilities through AI, leading to such issues piling up.

Realizing Inter-Korean AI Cooperation and the Role of South Korea

Of course, this does not mean that they will disclose everything immediately, and they are showing a path towards becoming a non-hostile state through government control and dependence on China and Russia, so immediate problems may not arise. However, structurally, the situation is difficult. If we prepare well and provide incentives to North Korea, their difficulties may surpass a certain threshold, allowing for limited forms of AI cooperation from the South. Although they refused to introduce vaccines during COVID-19, there were instances of direct vaccinations through indirect channels. In this way, if cooperation can be pursued through multilateral channels without undermining North Korea's autonomy, possibilities for cooperation may open up. South Korea has four main tasks. As I suggested, 'establishment' means that we need to have units that can operate separately.

Primarily, especially in the field of AI, it is necessary to develop an AI ecosystem that blocks threats from North Korea while also ensuring that South Korea does not pose a threat to North Korea. An important question is what preparatory work needs to be done. Currently, cooperation with North Korea is heavily constrained by sanctions, but there are exceptions to these sanctions.

Potential Areas for Cooperation and Utilizing Multilateral Channels

The South Korean government needs to verify in advance and explore ways to cooperate through multilateral organizations if direct cooperation is difficult through exceptional channels. Within the sanctions, there are pathways that can circumvent them, such as humanitarian assistance, scientific and technological cooperation, and social joint ventures. North Korea itself has indirectly shown a desire to lift or circumvent sanctions in the field of science and technology. During the inter-Korean talks in 2018, North Korea demanded the lifting of several resolutions, including those related to scientific and technological cooperation and computer education support. As North Korea feels difficulties regarding AI, such desires will likely grow stronger. The question is where to start, and I think four areas are possible: education, health, disaster,

statistics, and those four areas. Statistical data shows that there are many indications that they want to utilize AI in those areas. It can be seen that they intend to use AI for disaster preparedness, in the medical construction system, and in education. Recently, North Korea met with the UN to discuss the exchange of statistical data and methods of data processing.

Providing Incentives to North Korea and Preparing South Korea

Such multilateral channels are somewhat open. They are not completely closed. We need to prepare those multilateral channels in advance, and next, we must provide incentives to North Korea. This can be done in a discursive dimension, as North Korea speaks of self-reliance, but there are ways to maintain North Korea's autonomy without deploying the self-reliance discourse. One method is to reframe it as 'coexistence' and provide incentives. Teaching North Korea about verified low-resource AI cases is also a method. Even if it is not implemented immediately in North Korea, there are achievements made through low-resource AI in countries with similar environments. There are possibilities, as seen in the educational cases of Cambodia or Nigeria. Another point is,

Finally, South Korea itself must also exert a positive influence on AI. This is already being actively pursued at various budgetary and governmental levels. Particularly, considering that South Korea is linked with about nine global AI initiative organizations related to the UN, if we expand the scope of multilateral cooperation through international organizations, it may enable future AI cooperation with North Korea.

Furthermore, it is worth considering viewing North Korean AI cooperation as a global governance issue and setting it as a sub-issue within the ROK-U.S. alliance. Since the United States may not currently have significant interest in North Korean AI governance, while the U.S. maintains military superiority within the ROK-U.S. alliance, South Korea could take a more proactive role in negotiating North Korean AI governance, thereby promoting initiatives for improving inter-Korean relations and the peaceful existence of North Korea. Yes, I will conclude with that.