[Korea's North Korea Strategy] IV. Mid- to Long-Term Possibilities for Inter-Korean AI Cooperation and Korea's Strategy

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxqyN7vmM88&si=KCOLwZJX-3DoXpwZ

Video Transcript

Hello, I am Choi In-ho. Today, I would like to discuss the potential directions for long-term cooperation between South Korea and North Korea in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). As many have already pointed out, the current situation has made immediate cooperation quite difficult, as constitutional amendments and new corrections have been introduced due to the adversarial nature of the two countries. Therefore, I understand that we have arranged this forum to explore the relationship between this situation and AI. One might wonder how AI is related to this context. AI is bringing revolutionary changes to all economic, technological, political, and security fields, not only in Korea but globally. However, one of the aspects that is difficult for us to understand is how North Korea perceives AI and what activities it is undertaking in relation to AI.

A New Concept of AI Cooperation: Preemptive Engagement and Symbiotic Establishment

I would like to point out that there are more interesting changes and possibilities than one might think in the long-term context. The two key concepts I want to emphasize are 'preemptive engagement' and 'symbiotic establishment.' Preemptive engagement means that it is difficult to do anything with North Korea at the moment. No matter how much we want to engage, as long as North Korea maintains its adversarial stance, it is challenging for us to take any action. However, we cannot simply remain idle; if long-term trends in the AI field are observed and there are feasible possibilities for collaboration with North Korea, we should prepare for engagement in advance. Secondly, the concept of symbiotic establishment implies that since North Korea has adopted an adversarial stance, South Korea also needs to undergo a certain shift in thinking.

Until now, our long-term goal has been unification, and while the direction is changing, there has been much thought about establishing a peaceful relationship through dialogue with North Korea. South Korea has consistently shown efforts to actively bring North Korea to the negotiating table. However, given that the adversarial relationship between the two countries has just begun, such efforts are unlikely to yield significant results relative to their costs and may even backfire. Rather, it is essential to understand the special circumstances that necessitate a certain degree of unavoidable separation and distance, and to build a minimum level of trust that does not take an adversarial form, allowing for a foundation for mutual coexistence.

North Korea's Perception and Policy Trends Regarding AI

I believe it is necessary to establish a foundation for this. I considered how to view the issue of AI cooperation with North Korea through these two keywords. Looking at the level of AI discourse in North Korea, it is challenging to know their specific AI policies immediately, but we can find through sources such as the Rodong Sinmun that their discourse is not significantly different from that of other countries. North Korea recognizes that AI is bringing revolutionary changes across all fields and that falling behind in this competition could lead to serious long-term problems. This awareness seems to have been present since the late 2000s. In terms of foreign policy, AI has emerged as a realistic issue rather than a distant future concern.

In 2015, the Rodong Sinmun mentioned that AI projects are among the most important initiatives, and in March of this year, Kim Jong-un stated in a speech at the Supreme People's Assembly that the country must invest national strength in AI and space technology to keep pace with global scientific and technological advancements, indicating that the AI industry is recognized as a national development task. Kim Il-sung University has restructured its Department of Information Science into a Department of Artificial Intelligence and is actively planning to utilize data in fields such as medical AI and unmanned attack systems.

Structural Limitations of North Korea's AI Development and International Cooperation

The issue lies in the structural conditions that North Korea currently faces. As pointed out by Professor Lee Jong-min earlier, North Korea not only lacks the conditions to keep up with the AI revolution, but the nature of the North Korean regime also presents structural difficulties in acquiring the capabilities required for AI. The most significant problem is that the closed system exacerbates the challenges posed by sanctions and cooperation. Since it is already closed off, AI ultimately requires data accumulation, training, and the use of advanced models, but all such channels are blocked.

North Korea has effectively shut itself off, and many limitations have been imposed due to UN sanctions. Although there have been attempts to loosen restrictions through economic cooperation with Russia and China, these efforts are also very limited. For example, North Korea recognizes the need for generative AI models like GPT and has reportedly conducted AI experiments with 50,000 pieces of Korean data, which is a very small amount compared to global model standards. Additionally, the reference materials they consult are limited to reports from OpenAI's GPT and other restricted sources.

One of the technical achievements obtained through AI is a paper on fine dust prediction, but due to a lack of data, they used Beijing data indirectly. The translation tool 'Nongma 1.0' also operates only in a limited manner through North Korea's internal internet network. In terms of indicators, North Korea is significantly lagging behind. From a hardware perspective, the smooth supply of electricity, which is crucial for AI development, is lacking. North Korea's power generation capacity is at 4.4% of that of South Korea, making it difficult to establish a proper data center. According to the UN's e-Government index,

North Korea ranks nearly at the bottom. Excluding South Korea, the United States, and Russia, there is almost no AI cooperation between South Korea and the United States. In most indicators, North Korea is either at the bottom or not measured at all. To overcome these difficulties, North Korea has no choice but to rely on cooperation with China and Russia, although there are some areas where this is somewhat feasible. Through cooperation with Russia, AI technology in the military field has been somewhat disseminated, and recent statements have explicitly mentioned AI as a field of cooperation.

With China, there are aspects that have been introduced through surveillance technology cooperation, and since the deep learning technology developed in China is open source, North Korea can adopt it if desired. However, there are rational limitations. North Korea cannot import cutting-edge AI foundation models through Russia, and even China's deep learning technology is difficult for North Korea to use freely due to its lack of openness compared to China. There is still no data indicating that such technologies have been widely adopted.

The bigger problem is the structural issues of AI that will inevitably intensify in the long term. Globally, the investment levels in AI are overwhelmingly led by the United States and China, and assistance from China is also very limited. As AI models enter a stage where they can self-correct, if left unattended, the gap will widen significantly. AI is rapidly enhancing its capacity to produce knowledge necessary for the entire industry, further exacerbating the disparity.

Ultimately, it is difficult to keep up with the AI revolution structurally. However, this does not mean that a collapse of the regime is imminent. Rather, the inability to keep pace with the AI revolution will lead to a continuous decline in national functions. Problems may accumulate, such as the resurgence of tuberculosis. Tuberculosis is a field where diagnostic capabilities can be enhanced using AI, but North Korea lacks the capacity to utilize such tools. Issues of this nature will continue to accumulate.

Concrete Measures for Inter-Korean AI Cooperation and South Korea's Role

Of course, this does not mean that we will disclose everything immediately. North Korea itself is showing a path toward becoming a non-hostile state through government control and dependence on China and Russia, so immediate problems may not arise, but structurally, the situation is challenging. If we prepare well and provide incentives to North Korea, there may be a point where North Korea's difficulties surpass a certain threshold, allowing for limited forms of AI cooperation with South Korea. Although North Korea rejected vaccine imports during the COVID-19 pandemic, there were instances of direct vaccinations through indirect channels. In this way, if we bypass the situation without undermining North Korea's autonomy, cooperation possibilities can open up through multilateral channels. South Korea has about four tasks to undertake. As I suggested, 'establishment' means that we need to organize ourselves in a way that allows us to operate separately.

Primarily, in the field of AI, it is necessary to develop a defensive system to block threats from North Korea while simultaneously advancing the AI ecosystem in a manner that does not pose a threat to North Korea. An important question is what preparatory work needs to be done. Cooperation with North Korea is heavily constrained by sanctions, but there are exceptions to these sanctions.

The South Korean government should verify exceptions to sanctions in advance, and if direct cooperation is difficult, it is necessary to explore cooperation plans through third-party organizations. Within the sanctions framework, there are pathways to bypass sanctions, such as humanitarianism, scientific and technological cooperation, and joint organizations. North Korea itself has indirectly shown a desire for the lifting or circumvention of scientific and technological sanctions. During the 2019 inter-Korean talks, North Korea demanded the lifting of sanctions related to scientific and technological cooperation and support for computer education. As North Korea increasingly feels difficulties regarding AI issues, such desires will grow stronger. The question is where to start, but I believe that areas such as education, health, and disaster management statistics are feasible.

Statistics indicate that there is a strong desire to utilize AI in these areas. There is a call for the use of AI for disaster preparedness, in the medical construction system, and in education. Recently, North Korea met with the UN to discuss the exchange of statistical data and methods for data processing.

This indicates that such multilateral channels are somewhat open. They are not completely closed. We need to prepare such multilateral channels in advance and provide incentives to North Korea. This means that while North Korea speaks of self-reliance, there are ways to maintain its autonomy without deploying the self-reliance discourse, allowing for coexistence. This could involve rephrasing it as 'symbiosis.' There are methods to provide incentives by presenting new concepts in this manner. Teaching North Korea about low-resource AI cases that have already been validated is also a strategy. There have been achievements through low-resource AI in countries with environments similar to North Korea, such as Cambodia and Nigeria.

Global Governance and AI Cooperation within the ROK-U.S. Alliance

Finally, South Korea must also exert a positive influence on AI. The government is already actively working on various budgets and initiatives. Notably, it appears that South Korea is linked to about nine organizations related to global AI initiatives under the UN. If South Korea can cultivate the image of multilateral cooperation through international organizations, even if it does not directly involve North Korea at the moment, it could facilitate future AI cooperation with North Korea.

Furthermore, it is worth considering framing North Korean AI cooperation as a global governance issue and establishing it as a sub-issue within the ROK-U.S. alliance. Since the United States may not currently have significant interest in North Korean AI governance, it seems feasible for South Korea to take a more proactive role in negotiating North Korean AI governance within the ROK-U.S. alliance, leading initiatives that improve inter-Korean relations and allow North Korea to exist peacefully in the global context. Yes, I will conclude my remarks here.