Advanced Technologies and US-China Strategic Competition: Integrated Deterrence and Intelligent Warfare

Sasebo Naval Base · Choi Jeong-hwan · Graduate School, Korea University

Introduction

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and the emergence of autonomous systems (AS) based on it herald another dramatic shift in the military domain. In the past, such changes have typically altered the landscape of warfare. The Industrial Revolution, which began in 19th-century Britain, transformed warfare into machine-centric combat, and the 20th-century Information Technology (IT) revolution connected individual battlefield platforms into networks, evolving warfare into system-centric information warfare. Now, the battlefield is poised to transition from information warfare to intelligent warfare based on AI and autonomous systems. 4. Advanced Technologies and US-China Strategic Competition: Integrated Deterrence and Intelligent Warfare

However, new technologies may hold no meaning in themselves. No matter how innovative a technology is, it cannot be effectively utilized if the appropriate operational concepts are not established and supported. It was only after the concept of strategic bombing emerged that aircraft became a major force during World War I, and it was only after the concept of Blitzkrieg was established that German tanks shone during World War II. Therefore, in the age of AI, corresponding operational concepts must be considered.

<Figure 1> The Relationship Between Technological Advancement and the Evolution of Warfare

Source: Yatsuzuka Masaaki et al. 2021. NIDS China Security Report 2021. NIDS: National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan. In Northeast Asia, intense strategic competition is currently underway between the United States and China, extending beyond traditional military and economic spheres into various other domains. The technology sector is one such area receiving new attention, and it is necessary to examine what the future battlefield looks like to these two superpowers based on advanced technologies and what operational concepts they aim to establish for it.

The United States' Integrated Deterrence Strategy

The US National Security Strategy (NSS), originally scheduled for release in February 2022, was postponed and eventually published in late autumn, in October. The new National Security Strategy developed by the Joe Biden administration had a distinct difference from the Trump administration's strategy five years prior. The previous Trump administration had characterized China as a revisionist state attempting to alter the status quo of the US-led liberal world order. However, this new US National Security Strategy designated China as the sole country posing a serious challenge to the United States.

The PRC is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it (National Security Strategy 2022). 4. Advanced Technologies and US-China Strategic Competition: Integrated Deterrence and Intelligent Warfare

If the National Security Strategy of the Trump administration five years ago shifted the focus of security strategy from the war on terror to great power competition, the National Security Strategy of the Biden administration acknowledges China as a country with the power and intent to threaten the United States' position, thus focusing security strategy on a hegemonic struggle with China.

Under this security perception, the White House stated that to counter China, it would strengthen US domestic capabilities and enhance networks with allies and partner nations. It also emphasized that the next decade would be a decisive period for advancing US core interests and building a United States capable of winning against geopolitical competitors.

The US National Defense Strategy, released concurrently, contained more detailed information on this matter. The National Defense Strategy outlined four key objectives: 1. Homeland Defense, 2. Deterring Strategic Attacks Against the United States and its Allies and Partners, 3. Deterring Aggression and Projecting Power in the Event of Conflict, and 4. Building a Resilient Joint Force and Defense Ecosystem. To achieve these, it proposed three lines of effort: 1. Integrated Deterrence, 2. Campaigning, and 3. Building Enduring Advantage.

Integrated deterrence, a new US security strategy concept, was documented for the first time in this document, but it had previously appeared as a core principle of the Indo-Pacific strategy through numerous speeches and mentions.

First, it was officially mentioned for the first time in the speech by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin during the change of command ceremony at the Indo-Pacific Command in 2021. Secretary Austin stated that the nature of future warfare would change from the past, requiring the ability to understand, decide, and act more quickly, and that to achieve this, networks must be built within systems based on technology sharing with allies and partner nations.

Integrated deterrence fundamentally aims to achieve national security by strengthening networks across various domains, emphasizing integration in three key areas. First, it emphasizes integration across multiple conventional domains: nuclear, cyber, space, and information. The goal is to build deterrence and enhance effectiveness through integration across diverse battlefields and domains. Second, it emphasizes integration across different levels of conflict, from strategic competition and potential conflict with China to high-intensity gray zone conflicts. The mechanism for implementing integrated deterrence is to integrate all of the US's available capabilities and apply them across all domains, including military conflict and non-military hybrid warfare. Finally, it emphasizes the integration of all regions, meaning the integration of US allies and partners. Through cooperation with allies and partners, the aim is to create synergy in the new battlefield environment. This involves emphasizing cooperation and linkage among allies, network building, enhancing interoperability, and integrating logistics, intelligence, and technology, ultimately aiming to maximize flexibility in power projection by unifying the entire globe into a single integrated theater. 4. Advanced Technologies and US-China Strategic Competition: Integrated Deterrence and Intelligent Warfare

Ultimately, the emergence of integrated deterrence as a new security strategy concept stems from changes in the strategic environment surrounding the Indo-Pacific, particularly the expansion of influence by competitor nations in the gray zone, which is difficult to define as armed-military conflict. As it becomes increasingly difficult to dichotomously distinguish between war and peace, the need to prepare for and respond to conflicts occurring across multiple dimensions and domains has grown. Thus, it can be seen as an attempt to emphasize the integration of military and non-military means and to build this together with allies and partners.

China's Intelligent Warfare (Intelligence Warfare)

The concept of China's intelligent warfare emerged earlier than the US concept of integrated deterrence. First mentioned in China's 2019 defense white paper, this military concept is an innovative military concept focused on human cognition, embodying the will to subdue opponents without engaging in conventional warfare.

In July 2019, the Chinese People's Liberation Army acknowledged the emergence of new forms of warfare in its defense white paper, stating that warfare is evolving into information warfare and that intelligent warfare is imminent. Although the Chinese government has not provided an official definition of intelligent warfare, many Chinese researchers describe it as integrated warfare conducted in land, sea, air, space, electronic warfare, cyber, and cognitive domains using intelligent weapons and equipment based on the Internet of Things (IoT).

Chinese researchers characterize intelligent warfare as particularly encompassing the concept of cognitive warfare. However, a significant difference lies in US analyses, which tend to focus on technology, interpreting it primarily as an expanded application of advanced technologies like AI across various stages, rather than explicitly mentioning the cognitive domain.

In the sense that it uses AI technology in warfare, intelligent warfare may not be a new concept. The United States has been pursuing operational decision-making centered on AI and autonomous systems, rapid decision-making, and enhanced information processing capabilities through its Third Offset Strategy since 2014, and hopes to realize integrated deterrence based on these advancements. In this regard, China's intelligent warfare shares many similarities with the US approach.

However, the key difference is that Chinese researchers perceive the cognitive domain as the next crucial battlefield, following the physical and information domains. Rather than viewing AI technology in relation to traditional concepts of warfare, as the US does, they intend to use AI technology for entirely new purposes that directly influence the enemy's cognition. 4. Advanced Technologies and US-China Strategic Competition: Integrated Deterrence and Intelligent Warfare

China emphasizes that the core operational concept of intelligent warfare is the direct control of the enemy's will. It aims to directly control top decision-makers such as presidents, members of congress, and combat commanders, as well as the general populace, using AI technology. The intelligence superiority or command of intelligence sought to achieve victory in such a battlefield is used for purposes very different from how the US utilizes AI technology on the battlefield, implying warfare in new domains.

<Figure 2> Information Environment

Source: Yamaguchi Shinji et al. 2023. NIDS China Security Report 2023. NIDS: National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan. Cognitive warfare includes public opinion warfare, which influences domestic and international public opinion; psychological warfare, which demoralizes enemy troops and civilians; and legal warfare, which seeks international support through international and domestic law. This occurs simultaneously in physical domains such as land, sea, air, and space, as well as information domains like cyber and electronic warfare, and the human cognitive domain composed of leaders' will and public opinion. Chinese researchers believe the importance of the cognitive domain will continue to increase over time.

<Figure 3> Tactics by Type of Cognitive Warfare

Source: Yamaguchi Shinji et al. 2023. NIDS China Security Report 2023. NIDS: National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan. 4. Advanced Technologies and US-China Strategic Competition: Integrated Deterrence and Intelligent Warfare

The three types of cognitive warfare are expected to employ the tactics shown in Figure 3. Notably, China emphasizes the execution of these three types of warfare in conjunction with the use and threat of military means. While the three types of cognitive warfare are essential elements of intelligent warfare, they cannot be executed independently of military means. Cognitive warfare is considered a central element of political operations in informationized warfare and is effective when combined with joint operations. Therefore, cognitive warfare is not considered a substitute for military force; military force is always used in conjunction with it.

Conclusion

With the advent of AI technology and autonomous systems, the battlefield is poised to transition from information warfare to intelligent warfare based on these advancements. In step with technological progress, the United States and China are envisioning the future battlefield and seeking to establish new operational concepts for their strategies.

While both recognize the importance of AI technology, the US presents a vision of global campaigning utilizing its allies and partners, whereas China aims to control the enemy's will to fight in the new cognitive domain. The US vision, by seeking applications for new technologies within the traditional domain of information warfare, might seem more pragmatic and achievable than China's concept of intelligent warfare. However, China's idea can be considered revolutionary in that it begins to define the human cognitive realm as a new battlefield domain.

On the other hand, the traditional concept of deterrence also aims to dissuade the opponent's will, preventing them from taking intended actions. In this sense, both integrated deterrence and intelligent warfare ironically and optimistically seem to desire the absence of conventional warfare at the end of competition. With this thought, I have summarized brief reflections on the visions of both countries.

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