[Arctic Security Dialogue] ① Arctic Shipping Routes Driven by Climate Change: Competition Among the US, China, and Russia, and Korea's Challenges

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11r10vmD80I

Introduction to the Arctic Security Dialogue Series

The East Asia Institute (EAI) is launching an interview series on the Arctic, an area of growing importance. Due to climate change, new Arctic shipping routes are emerging, and the region has become a focal point for major powers in terms of economy, resources, environmental protection, and military security. Through this series, we will invite experts to discuss various aspects of the Arctic, including what strategies South Korea should pursue and what preparations are necessary.

Climate Change and Arctic Shipping Routes

Jeon Jae-seong, President of EAI

I would like to ask the first question. The first question concerns climate change and the Arctic. Climate change has become so severe recently that I understand it is particularly pronounced in the Arctic region, not just globally. Could you please summarize and explain how these characteristics of climate change are affecting maritime transport in the Arctic?

Jeong Seong-yeop, Senior Research Fellow

According to research from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, temperatures in the Arctic region are increasing significantly. Last year, the average increase was about 1.4 degrees Celsius. As temperatures rise in the Arctic Ocean, a considerable amount of ice is shrinking, allowing ships to access areas that were previously inaccessible due to ice. Looking at the numbers, from 2013 to the past decade, the number of ship voyages has increased by approximately 37%. This indicates that as ships increasingly enter the Arctic Ocean, they are overcoming previous limitations, enabling significant maritime transport activities.

Major Powers' Arctic Development Policies

Jeon Jae-seong, President of EAI

I see. There was the recent incident involving President Trump and Greenland, and various countries seem to be showing significant interest and implementing policies for Arctic development. I have also heard that South Korea is making new efforts in Arctic development. Could you provide a general overview of the objectives and policies that major countries are pursuing for Arctic development?

Jeong Seong-yeop, Senior Research Fellow

Looking at the major countries, the United States, Russia, and China wield the most influence. First, regarding the United States, with the second Trump administration, the OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) was passed. This legislation primarily aims to enhance US capabilities in the Arctic concerning maritime activities, resource and security aspects, and route development. To this end, the US Coast Guard is operating icebreakers, with the PSC (Polar Security Cutter) and ASC (Arctic Security Cutter) programs aiming to build a diverse fleet of icebreakers. The PSC is primarily a large-class cutter program, while the ASC refers to a medium-class cutter program. The establishment of a substantial icebreaker fleet will strengthen US capabilities in the Arctic region, serving as a significant tool to counter the influence of China and Russia in the Arctic. Regarding US Arctic policy, it has historically aimed to maintain a leading role within the Arctic region. Recently, Russia and China have formed an alliance, increasing maritime and military activities in the Arctic Ocean, prompting significant moves by the US to counter them.

Next is Russia. Russia holds the most significant influence in shaping the Northern Sea Route. The Northern Sea Route was first presented on the international stage by General Secretary Gorbachev in 1987, drawing international attention. As mentioned earlier, the Arctic region's low temperatures and geographical characteristics historically posed significant challenges for maritime access due to ice cover. However, recent climate change has led to a substantial reduction in ice extent, enabling commercial shipping activities. Consequently, Russia has set the Northern Sea Route as a new national strategic objective and is actively working to expand related projects under this strategy.

Among Asian countries, China is playing the most leading role. Notably, China has a national policy, having published an Arctic White Paper in 2018. This white paper designates China as a 'near-Arctic state,' granting it a voice in decision-making on various Arctic issues. This effort aims to enhance China's influence in Arctic affairs. Furthermore, China is conducting trial voyages along the Northern Sea Route through various shipping companies. In October of last year, China successfully completed the world's first trial voyage of a container ship from China to the UK. This demonstrated the feasibility of regular liner services, significantly strengthening China's position in dominating the market for Arctic shipping routes among Asian nations.

In this context, various cooperative activities are underway among the three major powers (US, Russia, and China). Recently, South Korea has also been formulating government policies to promote Arctic shipping route initiatives. The development of Arctic shipping routes is set as a national objective, with plans for a new trial voyage in the latter half of this year, between September and October. South Korea's first trial voyage for an Arctic shipping route took place in 2013, transporting naphtha, which is currently a topic of discussion. This voyage demonstrated the commercial viability of the Arctic shipping route. Through a total of five trial voyages until 2016, South Korea accumulated experience regarding potential challenges and necessary procedures for operating ships on the Arctic route. Building on this experience, if the government successfully conducts a trial voyage this year, South Korea can play a significant role in the race to secure a position on the Arctic shipping route.

South Korea's Arctic Development Status and Outlook

Jeon Jae-seong, President of EAI

Yes, listening to your explanation, I realize we don't know much about the starting and ending points, or the route of South Korea's Arctic shipping initiatives. Could you please provide more details about the planned route for the trial voyage?

Jeong Seong-yeop, Senior Research Fellow

Previous trial voyages departed from Ulsan and proceeded to Ust-Luga in Russia. Geographically, this route passes through the Bering Strait from Asia and follows the Russian coast southward. Most Arctic shipping routes from Asia to Europe follow a similar path. However, the specific direction may vary depending on the cargo and destination.

Jeon Jae-seong, President of EAI

I see. My final question concerns the crucial role of science and technology in pioneering Arctic shipping routes. As you are directly involved in this research, could you elaborate on the current level of scientific and technological capabilities for our Arctic route development, and the direction that science and technology diplomacy should take, including cooperation with other countries? This is a topic we are not very familiar with.

Jeong Seong-yeop, Senior Research Fellow

The Arctic region comprises eight countries: the United States, Russia, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland. The Arctic Council, established in 1996 through the Ottawa Declaration, serves as the primary intergovernmental forum for addressing Arctic issues. Within the Council, discussions are held on Arctic priorities and how to address them, covering issues such as maritime transport, resource development, and environmental protection. South Korea has been actively engaged in technological diplomacy, conducting research across various fields including scientific, industrial, and policy aspects of the Arctic. Sharing Korea's technological advancements with the international community based on these research outcomes is a key issue. As mentioned, discussions within the Arctic Council primarily involve the eight Arctic states. South Korea has been an observer state in the Arctic Council since 2013. Observer states are limited to providing information and support during decision-making processes rather than direct intervention in agenda items. Recently, international cooperation between Arctic and non-Arctic states has gained significant importance. From this perspective, consolidating South Korea's expertise in science, technology, and policy can enable us to provide our technological capabilities to Arctic nations. This information can serve as a foundational basis for Arctic countries in formulating their policy directions and addressing societal issues. Therefore, establishing diverse cooperative frameworks with Arctic nations is paramount, enabling South Korea to play a significant role in resolving Arctic challenges.

The eight Arctic states lead the discussions on major Arctic issues. South Korea joined the Arctic Council as an observer in 2013. The role of an observer state is limited to providing information and supporting decision-making processes, rather than direct intervention in agenda items. Recently, international cooperation between Arctic and non-Arctic states has become increasingly important. In this context, consolidating South Korea's capabilities in science, technology, and policy can enable us to offer our technological expertise to Arctic nations. This information can serve as a foundational basis for Arctic countries in formulating their policy directions and addressing societal issues. Therefore, establishing diverse cooperative frameworks with Arctic nations is crucial, allowing South Korea to play a significant role in resolving Arctic challenges.

Jeon Jae-seong, President of EAI

Today, we have had the privilege of hearing from Dr. Jeong Seong-yeop of the Korea Research Institute of Ships and Ocean Engineering. We have delved deeply into various topics, including the environmental changes in Arctic shipping routes due to climate change, the Arctic strategies of major powers, the opportunities for South Korea within these strategies, the direction of our science and technology diplomacy, and our relationship with the Arctic Council member states. Thank you, Dr. Jeong.■

■ Host: Jeon Jae-seong_President of EAI; Professor at Seoul National University.

■ Dialogue: Jeong Seong-yeop_Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Research Institute of Ships and Ocean Engineering.

■ Planning and Editing: Lim Jae-hyun_Research Fellow at EAI

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) | jhlim@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

The first question concerns climate change and the Arctic. As climate change has become very severe recently, I understand that it is particularly severe in the Arctic region, not just globally. I will first explain how the characteristics of this climate change are affecting maritime transport in the Arctic. According to the results announced by the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, temperatures in the Arctic region are increasing significantly. Last year, the average temperature was around 9.4℃. As the temperature in the Arctic region rises so rapidly,

many ice masses are shrinking, and areas that were previously inaccessible due to ice are now accessible to ships. Looking at the numbers, ship traffic has increased by about 37% over the past decade, starting from 2013. This indicates that as more ships enter Arctic waters, maritime transport is taking place by overcoming the previous limitations that prevented conventional vessels from entering. There was also the recent incident involving Greenland under President Trump, and it seems that various countries are showing great interest in Arctic development and pursuing their own policies. I have heard that South Korea is also making new efforts in Arctic development, and I would be grateful if you could provide an overview of the objectives and policies that major countries are pursuing in Arctic development.

Competition Dynamics of Arctic Policies among the US, China, and Russia

Looking at the current state of the Arctic, the countries that can exert the greatest influence are the United States, Russia, and China. First, let's examine the case of the United States. With the advent of the Trump administration, the OBBA Act was passed. This act aims primarily to strengthen the capabilities of ships operating in the Arctic, enhance U.S. influence in terms of resources and security, and facilitate the opening of new shipping routes. Through this, the U.S. Coast Guard operates icebreakers, aiming to build a fleet of icebreakers through various programs such as the TSC and ASC programs. PSC primarily refers to large-class patrol vessels, while ASC refers to medium-class maintenance vessels. By building a significant fleet of icebreakers through these initiatives, the U.S. can enhance its influence in the Arctic. This is largely utilized to counter the influence of China and Russia in the Arctic. The U.S. has its existing

Arctic policies, which are aimed at securing leadership within the Arctic region. Recently, Russia and China have formed an alliance and are increasing not only ship traffic but also military activities in the Arctic Ocean. Consequently, many policy movements are underway to check Russia and China. The next country to consider is Russia. Russia is the country with the greatest influence in establishing Arctic shipping routes. In fact, regarding Arctic shipping routes, General Secretary Gorbachev first announced the Arctic shipping route on the international stage in 1987, and since then, the Arctic shipping route has gained international attention.

As mentioned earlier, the Arctic region is characterized by low temperatures and geographical features that historically posed significant limitations to ship access due to ice. However, due to recent climate change, the ice cover has considerably reduced, and ships are now operating. Therefore, Russia has set the Arctic shipping route as a new national strategic objective and is making efforts to expand Arctic shipping route projects under this national strategy. Next, among Asian countries, China is playing the leading role. In particular, China has a national policy, and in 2018, it published a white paper. In this white paper, China refers to itself as a 'Near-Arctic State.' This designation allows China to participate in decision-making on various Arctic issues and aims to strengthen its influence on Arctic matters. Furthermore, China is conducting pilot operations of Arctic shipping routes through various routes.

South Korea's Efforts and Challenges in Pioneering Arctic Shipping Routes

We are proceeding. Last October, we successfully completed the world's first pilot operation of a container ship sailing from China to the UK. This demonstrated the feasibility of electric vessel services, and through this, China is playing a significant role in strengthening its market dominance in the Arctic route competition as the most leading country among Asian nations. In this context, various cooperative activities are taking place among the three countries, and recently, South Korea has also been formulating government policies to promote Arctic route initiatives. The goal of pioneering the Arctic route has been set as a national agenda item, and through this, a new pilot operation project for the Arctic route is planned for the period between September and October of the latter half of this year. South Korea's first Arctic route pilot operation project took place in 2013, and the cargo transported at that time was naphtha, which is currently a topic of discussion. Through this naphtha transport, we proved that commercial operations are possible on the Arctic route.

Through this, a total of five pilot operations were conducted by 2016, accumulating experience regarding potential issues during actual Arctic route navigation and the necessary procedures for ship operations. Based on these stages, if the government successfully carries out a pilot operation this year, South Korea's government is expected to play a significant role in the competition for selecting Arctic routes based on the results. Listening to your explanation,

it would be great if you could provide more details about the starting and ending points of our country's Arctic route and the route targeted for the pilot operation. Examining previous pilot operation cases, the route departed from Ulsan and arrived at Ust-Luga, Russia. Geographically, it is a route that passes through the Bering Strait from Asia and proceeds down along the Russian coast. Most Arctic routes from Asia to Europe use the same path; however, from a logistics perspective, the direction may vary depending on which cargo is being transported to which destination.

Scientific and Technological Diplomacy and International Cooperation for Arctic Route Pioneering

This is the final question. As we pioneer the Arctic route, science and technology will be crucial. Since you are directly involved in research in this field, could you please elaborate on the current level of scientific and technological capabilities required for our Arctic route pioneering, and outline the direction for international cooperation and science and technology diplomacy? The Arctic Council is composed of eight member states. The Ottawa Declaration in 1996 led to the establishment of the Arctic Council, an official body for addressing Arctic issues.

The Council serves as an intergovernmental forum for reviewing Arctic affairs and discussing future directions for addressing Arctic issues. Through this, a considerable number of issues related to Arctic maritime transport, resource development, and environmental protection are being addressed. Looking at South Korea's case, it possesses significant technological diplomacy capabilities. Research is being conducted in various fields concerning scientific aspects, carbon-related aspects, and how to approach Arctic policy issues. Based on these research outcomes, a key issue will be how to share South Korea's technologies with the international community. As mentioned earlier, discussions in the Arctic primarily revolve around the eight Arctic Council member states; however, South Korea has been an observer state to the Arctic Council since 2013. The role of an observer state is limited to providing information and supporting decision-making processes rather than directly intervening in current issues.

Recently, international cooperation between Arctic and non-Arctic countries, as mentioned, has been gaining significant importance. From this perspective, if South Korea consolidates its scientific and technological capabilities and policy expertise, it can play a crucial role in providing its technologies to Arctic countries and offering foundational data based on that information, which can serve as a basis for Arctic countries in determining their policy directions and resolving social issues. Establishing diverse cooperative frameworks with Arctic countries is paramount, and through this, South Korea can play a significant role in addressing challenges within the Arctic region.

Today, we have had the privilege of hearing from Dr. Jeong Seong-yeop from the Korea Research Institute of Ships and Ocean Engineering. We have delved deeply into various topics, including environmental changes in Arctic routes due to climate change, the Arctic strategies of different nations, the opportunities for South Korea within these strategies, the nature of science and technology diplomacy we should pursue, and our relations with Arctic Council member states. We express our gratitude to Dr. Jeong.