[EAI-SBS Foundation] ③ Fragmentation of World Order and US-China Competition

YouTube Link : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJthHOeUVcc

Video Script

Fragmentation of the World Order and Changes in Security Alliances

Hello. This is Kwon Boram from the Institute for National Defense Studies. Professor Jeon Bong-seon has already provided a broad overview of security, so you can understand my part as delving into the specifics. When I first encountered this research project, there was much discussion about the recent transition to a multipolar system, system collapse, or regime fragmentation, and I found the emergence of new boundaries particularly intriguing. Therefore, it was beneficial to examine not only fragmentation but also the process of new boundaries being formed. Specifically, under the title 'US-China Strategic Competition and Polarization,' I looked at the nature of strategic competition, US-China interactions, the patterns of security polarization, and the re-examination of Korea and the ROK-US alliance within this context. Currently, new forms of polarization are emerging, and our research team has used the term 'clubification.' In my section, rather than using specific data, I utilized existing literature to explore how US-China strategic competition is unfolding, what indicators are being used, and how

US-China Strategic Competition and Networking Approaches

a comprehensive set of indicators are being employed. The intense competition between the US and China is occurring across multiple dimensions that cannot be explained linearly. While the US holds superiority in military power, China has significantly caught up, and even surpassed, in economic and diplomatic capabilities, reaffirming that the US possesses considerable initiative. Personally, I proceeded with the research believing that the networking of great powers has played a significant role in shaping the current structure. The US and China have distinct networking styles. The US has historically operated its global system around alliances, thus building networks within its alliance bloc centered on strong relationships. China, not forming alliances, adeptly cultivates soft relationships based on mutual economic reciprocity, among other factors. An interesting observation was that as these two styles compete, their perceptions of each other differ slightly. The US perceives China as having betrayed its efforts to engage and coexist, viewing the relationship as a zero-sum competitive one. China, while rejecting this US framework, is significantly enhancing its technological and military capabilities to win in actual competition. We could see the difference in styles, and what was particularly interesting was the dual nature of the Trump administration's approach. In diplomacy and economics, it was clearly centered on 'America First,' exhibiting strong protectionism and a self-centered stance. However, in the military domain, it did not abandon alliances. Despite expressing dissatisfaction with allies free-riding and referring to them as unwelcome guests, the US has continued security cooperation and expanded alliance relationships, showing a tendency to maintain good relations with its allies. This is related to the US pressure to advance its allies through concepts such as alliance modernization and rebalancing, as previously mentioned. This pressure creates a centripetal force while simultaneously generating a centrifugal force

Security Polarization and the Re-examination of Alliances

as China expands its influence through its own networking efforts. The second aspect of security polarization can be characterized as 'clubification,' which is more exclusive than trade or economic relations. For countries like ours, caught in the middle, managing these commitment regimes and maintaining relationships has become generalized as a strategy of 'unraveling' (解症), leading to the conclusion that constant fine-tuning is inevitable. Finally, there is the re-examination of alliances, with the US heavily emphasizing alliance rebalancing and realignment.

Consequently, the risks associated with various alliances seem to have become compounded. Whereas in the past we worried about being abandoned, now, with discussions emerging about the effectiveness of the US Forces Korea not only in deterring North Korea but also China, risks of being drawn into conflicts are emerging in a complex manner. An interesting development is the US's recent approval of South Korea's submarine construction, as seen in recent summit meetings. This suggests that the US recognizes South Korea's value not only in security but also economically, technologically, and industrially, and perceives the need to cooperate with South Korea to win the competition against China. This has provided an opportunity to observe the functions of our alliance within the context of these broader systemic shifts.

This has provided an opportunity to observe the functions of our alliance within the context of these broader systemic shifts.

Kwon Boram, Senior Researcher, Institute for National Defense Studies.

Managed and Edited by: Lim Jaehyun, EAI Research Fellow
Inquiries: 02-2277-0746 (ext. 209) jhim@eai.or.kr