[EAI-SBS Foundation] ① Fragmentation and New Boundary-Setting

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mm1VAUYqOL4

Video Script

Structural Background of the Fragmentation of the World Order

I will conclude my presentation by briefly discussing the background and focus of this research. As you can see, the background of the research begins with the fragmentation of the world order. Over the past six months, I have extensively contemplated the nature and causes of this fragmentation. These have been broadly condensed into three main points. First, global challenges, as we commonly refer to them, are increasing exponentially in scale and frequency. This has created phenomena or systemic effects that are difficult to resolve with existing frameworks.

On the other hand, amidst discussions about the necessity of a global response to these global challenges, we face a situation where the leadership required for such a response is missing or weakened. This is the first factor promoting the fragmentation of the world order. The second factor is the expansion of so-called hyper-globalization. While globalization has been progressing, there were traditionally international political frameworks that encompassed it. As we transition to hyper-globalization, these international political frameworks have weakened, leading to a widening gap between the existing frameworks and hyper-globalization. Furthermore, the weakening of democracy at the domestic level is also at play. Simply put, as globalization transforms into hyper-globalization, beneficiaries and victims emerge domestically, and the victims strongly resist. This tends to create social divisions beyond economic inequality, leading to political polarization. Political polarization has acted as a domestic factor systematically opposing the existing global economic integration and free trade system.

These factors have domestically weakened the ideological and institutional foundations of the world order as it has existed thus far, and can be considered the second factor promoting the fragmentation of the world order. The third factor is the deepening or expansion of strategic competition between the United States and China, which everyone here is well aware of. This ultimately tends to create a leadership vacuum for responding to global challenges.

On the other hand, systemic outcomes have emerged that promote or spread nationalism. Within this process, the world order has rapidly fragmented, which is the problem awareness and initial diagnosis of our research team. Therefore, we have also considered what the new form of the world order might be, which is currently unfolding or can be expected in the future, within this context.

Dynamics and Characteristics of New Boundary-Drawing

One of these is a dual dynamic at play: the securitization of the economy or the economization of security. Economic security is no longer an unfamiliar term, and the approach to the economy from a security perspective is intensifying. On the other hand, security is also being economized. A recent example is the Trump administration's demand that allies and partners bear not only defense cost-sharing but also other economic burdens, which can be seen as the economization of security. This is one of the important characteristics of the world order we will face in the future, and through this, the world appears to be entering a new process of boundary-drawing. Another characteristic of this new boundary-drawing is the simultaneous operation of centripetal and centrifugal forces. Centripetal force refers to a world where a logic of blocs operates more strongly as the competition and conflict between the United States and China intensify. A force will act to demand strong policy alignment from countries within the US-centric world.

On the other hand, this is like two sides of the same coin: as the forces pulling strongly and demanding cost-sharing increase, centrifugal forces, or pushing-away forces, also operate simultaneously. This is expected to be the second dynamic of new boundary-drawing. Finally, when considering what form this world will concretely take, I do not believe it will be a bloc formation like during the Cold War, nor a world of complete division into two camps.

Therefore, what we have defined as the main characteristic of new boundary-drawing is what can be called 'clubization.' This implies a state of being partially separated and partially connected. The United States and China have continuously worked to reduce their mutual dependency to lower their vulnerabilities, and this can be considered an area where certain physical forces are at play. However, from the perspective of the United States, for example, China remains an important market, and certain forces to maintain connectivity with China also operate simultaneously. Therefore, it is neither a completely separated world as in the past, nor a world of complete division, but a dual state where boundaries exist yet some connections remain; this is a sign of new boundary-drawing, which we have defined as clubization. Furthermore, the important force driving this clubization is the behavior of connecting countries. The United States and China will enter the aforementioned dual dynamic.

Research Areas and Future Discussions

Additionally, indirect connections through connecting countries between the United States and China will continue to be maintained or expanded. Through these dynamics, it appears that a new process of boundary-drawing centered around the United States and China will commence. I have spoken about the research background in this regard. Regarding specific areas, we have conducted detailed research divided into the military and security sectors. We have also conducted research divided into trade, technology, and industrial supply chains, and the three professors who participated in the research will provide more specific details on these areas.

Lee Seung-ju, Dean of the College of Social Sciences, Chung-Ang University.

Managed and Edited by: Jaehyun Lim, EAI Research Fellow Inquiries: 02 2277 0746 (ext. 209) jhim@eai.or.kr