[EAI 21st Presidential Election Opinion Analysis] V. Men and Women in their 20s in the 21st Presidential Election: Voting Choices, Ideological Tendencies, and Political Participation

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bJ_dCWh9x0

Video Script

2022 Presidential Election: Divergent Voting Choices of Male and Female Voters in their 20s

Professor Kim Hanna, who has a very important prior engagement today, was unable to attend. Instead, she prepared a presentation, and I trust Professor Gu Se-jin will continue this session and deliver an excellent presentation. One of the notable phenomena in the 20th presidential election held in 2022 was the divergent political candidate choices based on gender among the youth in their 20s and 30s. At the time, a majority of men in their 20s supported the People Power Party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, while a majority of women in their 20s supported the progressive Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung, showing a clear difference in voting choices between genders. What about the 21st presidential election this time?

As widely reported in the media, the voting choices of voters in their 20s again showed a clear divergence based on gender. As seen in the charts and tables, among voters in their 20s, men divided their support between conservative candidates Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok, while women in their 20s overwhelmingly supported the progressive candidate Lee Jae-myung with an impressive 66%. When these differences are reconstructed in terms of support for pro-progressive and pro-conservative candidates, they become even clearer. 78% of men in their 20s supported either Kim Moon-soo or Lee Jun-seok, and 70% of women in their 20s supported Lee Jae-myung or Kwon Young-guk. This distinct divergence in voting choices based on gender within the same age group is a phenomenon not commonly observed in other age groups. As this graph shows, the gender difference in voting choices diminishes in the 30s and disappears in the 40s. Regardless of gender, individuals in their 40s and 50s support progressive candidates, while those in their 60s and 70s jointly support conservative candidates.

Ideological Orientation and Party Affiliation of Male and Female Voters in their 20s

The pattern was repeated in this presidential election. So, why do these differences in voting choices occur? Political science identifies voters' political ideology and party affiliation as major factors influencing their voting choices. First, let's examine ideological orientation. The graph on this slide shows the results of asking respondents how progressive or conservative they consider themselves to be, broken down by generation and gender. More than half of male respondents in their 20s identified as conservative, while approximately 42% of women in their 20s identified as progressive. Compared to other groups, the highest proportion of men identifying as conservative were in their 70s, and the highest proportion of individuals identifying as progressive were men in their 40s. These two groups show similar ideological orientations to the groups of men and women in their 20s, respectively.

The next graph shows party affiliation. Among men in their 20s, the Reform Party was the most frequently cited party they supported or felt close to, at about 45%. This was followed by the People Power Party and the Democratic Party. For women in their 20s, the Democratic Party was overwhelmingly chosen, with approximately 67% responding that they were affiliated with it, far surpassing other parties. Synthesizing these two slides reveals the following: First, within the 20s age group, different ideological orientations and party affiliations appear by gender, but these differences are not prominent in age groups 30 and above. Second, the characteristics of voting choices by generation and gender group, which we first examined, closely overlap with the patterns of ideological orientation and party affiliation of each demographic group.

Areas of Deepening Gender Gap among Men and Women in their 20s

While these findings, sketched based on descriptive statistics, warrant caution, it is clear that the distinct political behavior differences between men and women in their 20s, which have been repeatedly reproduced, are ongoing. So, in what specific areas is this gender gap within the 20s manifesting? If we defined ideology in terms of a single word, progressive or conservative, this time we will examine it more concretely through six statements. These six statements are questions that measure where respondents' ideological attitudes lean across various aspects. Statements 1 through 5 were considered to indicate strong conservative attitudes, and the first, third, and sixth statements, being progressive statements, were calculated in reverse.

The table you see compares the attitude scores for the six statements across different demographic groups. First, the most significant difference between men and women in their 20s is in their attitude towards the last statement: that the government should strive to resolve issues of gender discrimination. The first row, or rather the last row, shows the largest gap between men and women in their 20s. A substantial difference of 1.71 occurs between them, a gap that is not observed when compared to gender differences in any other age group. I will now visualize this for easier understanding. The circular symbols in this graph represent women, and the triangles represent men. The attitudes towards the six statements are visualized on a 5-point scale from 1 to 5 for each generation.

The further right, towards 5, the more conservative the attitude. The points where men and women in their 20s diverge the most are in the last graph, related to attitudes towards gender discrimination. This is followed by the first and second graphs. The fourth and fifth graphs are particularly interesting. The pro-business attitude that corporate competitiveness and market flexibility are more important than improving labor rights and working conditions, and the meritocratic attitude that it is important to be rewarded based on individual performance and ability, and that the resulting gaps and inequalities should be accepted. In these two items, there is almost no difference in attitude between men and women in their 20s. This means that, unlike socio-cultural issues, there is not a large difference of opinion between generations and genders on economic and meritocracy items, and there is room for consensus. This might be a starting point for political parties if they wish to mobilize the support of both men and women in their 20s. Finally, regarding non-institutional forms of participation such as rallies and protests, rather than voting,

Non-institutional Political Participation and Efficacy of Men and Women in their 20s

Let's examine the behavioral differences between men and women in their 20s. The results show how actively they participated in protests calling for or opposing the impeachment of Yoon Suk-yeol following the December 3rd state affairs incident. As you can see, women in their 20s were the most active in participating in protests calling for Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment among all demographic groups. Interestingly, women in their 20s showed more active participation even in anti-impeachment rallies than men of the same age. Now, let's look at the differences in political efficacy. First, regarding self-belief, 'I can understand and effectively carry out political tasks or participation activities,' women in their 20s showed slightly higher results than men. However, regarding belief in the environment, 'The political establishment will respond to my opinions and demands and bring about change,' women in their 20s showed higher levels than men of the same age.

Repetition of the Gender Gap in the 20s and Policy Implications

In the case of the second graph, lower scores indicate that politicians care about me. Compared to other demographic groups, women in their 20s show a particularly strong belief that politicians will respond to them. On the other hand, when compared to the low participation rate in rallies, it can be inferred that men in their 20s may feel a sense of alienation, believing that their voices are unlikely to be reflected in politics. To summarize the results so far: The gender gap observed in the 20s during the 20th presidential election was repeated in the 21st presidential election. A pattern was found where conservative men in their 20s supported conservative party candidates, and progressive women in their 20s supported progressive party candidates. However, it is noteworthy that ideological attitudes of men and women in their 20s diverged most sharply on gender policies, such as government corrective measures for gender discrimination, while a degree of consensus was formed on pro-business policies and meritocratic attitudes. Subsequent

research needs to more specifically identify the ideological attitudes by measuring them from various angles when individuals in their 20s define themselves as progressive or conservative. Thank you. These are my observations and reflections so far. Yesterday, I attended a conference at the Democracy Movement Memorial Hall, and 90% of the attendees were MZ세대 women. Overwhelmingly. It was the same at Yeouido, and during the martial law period. Looking at EAI these days, I recall that in the past, very few MZ세대 women attended events related to democracy or election analysis, but today, it is difficult to find men in their 20s. There are a few.

Overall, I feel that we are observing very noticeable phenomena in specific issue areas. That's what I thought.

Kim Hanna, Professor of Moral Education, Jinju National University of Education.

Managed and Edited by Song Chae-rin, EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02-2277-1683 (ext. 211) | crsong@eai.or.kr