[EAI 21st Presidential Election Opinion Analysis] ② Politicization of Election Integrity and False Election Discourse: The Politics of Distrust Revealed in the 21st Presidential Election

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWPmaodzpJU

Video Script

Research Background and Methodology

This is Professor Lim Sung-hak from the University of Seoul. The topic I will present today is how this election, for which the results were largely anticipated at the project's inception, might impact Korean democracy. Therefore, I will discuss the politics of gender, wave theory, and election fraud discourse, as well as the politics of distrust revealed in the 21st presidential election. I will explain the background and research methodology, and then present the core findings and policy implications. The background for this presentation is that the election followed the declaration of martial law and impeachment, which ultimately led to an early presidential election in December 2012. At that time, allegations of election fraud were raised along with martial law, and the issue of election fraud became a significant point of contention, to the extent that the public witnessed soldiers entering the National Election Commission to collect data. These narratives spread through platforms like YouTube and online communities.

Allegations of manipulation of early voting, server hacking, and Chinese interference were raised, and we had somewhat anticipated these. In particular, the perception that early voting was fraudulent spread, especially among conservatives, and we sought to investigate the impact of this phenomenon through the current survey. The theoretical background is that everyone recognizes the paramount importance of elections in a democracy, and scholars of democracy universally argue that the loss of electoral legitimacy inevitably leads to the collapse of democracy.

Recently, the term 'electoral integrity' has been used in relation to election fraud. I never imagined that such research would be conducted in Korea. You would likely find it difficult to find academic papers on electoral integrity concerning Korea. Korea has managed its elections freely and fairly, thus avoiding such issues. However, new problems have now emerged, necessitating research on this topic.

Empirical research is also being conducted in the United States, demonstrating that Trump's claims of election fraud led to a decrease in voter turnout among his supporters. Recent election strategies have shifted from mobilizing past supporters to demobilizing the opposition. We examined this election with the hypothesis that conservatives might be demobilizing themselves by amplifying the narrative of election fraud. The research questions are: What factors influence voters' perceptions of fraud? What is the impact of perceptions of election fraud on voter turnout? What is the impact of perceptions of election fraud and electoral integrity on the evaluation of democracy?

The Relationship Between Perceptions of Electoral Integrity and Perceptions of Election Fraud

The data for this analysis comes from the 2022 Korean National Election Survey. The regression analysis for perceptions of election fraud was conducted using a three-stage model. The first stage involved perceptions of electoral integrity, assessed through three items: fairness of party nominations, fairness of election management by the National Election Commission, and fairness of judicial handling of election-related matters. The second stage included demographic control variables. The third stage examined the impact of political orientation, ideology, and party affiliation on perceptions of fraud.

The analysis revealed that perceptions of fairness in election management by the National Election Commission were highly significant. When perceptions of the National Election Commission improved by one level—from 'very unfair' to 'unfair,' or from 'unfair' to 'fair'—the reduction in perceptions of election fraud was 82.2%. This indicates that the direct cause of perceptions of election fraud is the general public's perception of the National Election Commission. The impact of the judiciary was not statistically significant, and the results for party nominations were the opposite, requiring further analysis. No significant demographic results were found, leading to the conclusion that demographic factors did not influence perceptions of fraud. Finally, regarding political orientation, conservative leaning

The Association Between Perceptions of Election Fraud and Voter Turnout

Perceptions of election fraud were higher among supporters of the People Power Party. This was an expected result, suggesting political polarization, the importance of electoral integrity, and a crisis in the current electoral system, leading to the issue of perceptions of election fraud. Secondly, regarding perceptions of election fraud and voter turnout: Surveys on voter turnout have limitations, as the reported turnout is often higher than the actual turnout. However, looking at the trends, the early voting participation rate among those with perceptions of fraud was only 6.6%, while it was 82.6% among those without such perceptions. This indicates a tendency for individuals with perceptions of fraud to participate only in the main election, not in early voting.

The Impact of Perceptions of Electoral Integrity on the Evaluation of Democracy

Ultimately, these individuals may avoid early voting and prefer the main election, potentially leading to abstention. This could have a negative effect, similar to the decrease in voter turnout due to Trump's claims of election fraud. Finally, concerning electoral integrity, perceptions of fraud, and the evaluation of democracy: Those who evaluate electoral integrity negatively or perceive allegations of election fraud tend to believe that democracy is not functioning well. Therefore, the politics of distrust, particularly distrust related to elections, has a significant ripple effect on voter perceptions, and electoral integrity is central to democratic trust. Without measures to restore institutional trust, there is a possibility of declining voter turnout and a lower evaluation of democracy. Consequently, institutional improvements that guarantee electoral integrity are necessary.

I will conclude my presentation by stating that this is necessary. In Korea, the expression 'Stop the Steal' is sometimes used to protest election fraud, an expression that appeared in a speech by Trump before the US Capitol riot. There are currently many areas of cooperation between South Korea and the United States.

Lim Sung-hak, Professor of International Relations, University of Seoul.

Managed and Edited by: Song Chae-rin, EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 211) | crsong@eai.or.kr