[EAI 21st Presidential Election Poll Analysis] ① Reorganization of the Conservative Camp in the 21st Presidential Election: What Divided the Yoon Suk-yeol Support Coalition?

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5KqVZKwRfk

Video Script

Reorganization of the Conservative Camp in the 21st Presidential Election and the Possibility of Division in the Pro-Yoon Seok-youl Alliance

This is Professor Shin Jeong-seop from Soongsil University, whom I was just introduced to. In this presentation, I will discuss the reorganization of the conservative camp in the 21st presidential election and whether the pro-Yoon Seok-youl alliance was divided. In fact, these were somewhat anticipated before the election began, and the results that have emerged are as expected. In the 20th presidential election, Yoon Seok-youl received 48.56% of the vote, and Lee Jae-myung received 47.83%. However, in the election held just three years later, the results were drastically reversed.

With 49.42% versus 41.15%, the gap widened by 15 percentage points. Considering that voters do not change their minds or voting choices in such a short period, this represents a significant shift. Notably, the People Power Party's vote share decreased by approximately 13% compared to the 20th presidential election. The fact that the vote share decreased despite an increase in voter turnout suggests that many People Power Party supporters who previously voted for Yoon Seok-youl changed their minds. Let's examine who exactly changed their minds. As anticipated and supported by the data, the most significant event that divided Yoon Seok-youl's supporters was ultimately the martial law and impeachment issues. It is necessary to examine how previous voters viewed these martial law and impeachment matters.

Patterns of Division among Conservative Supporters Regarding Impeachment and Martial Law Issues

Regarding opinions on the emergency martial law that occurred on December 3rd last year, the left side shows the opinions of those who voted for Lee Jae-myung in the 20th presidential election, and the right side shows the opinions of those who voted for Yoon Seok-youl. Among those who voted for Lee Jae-myung, there was almost no division in opinion. All responded that it was 'a highly unconstitutional and illegal act.' In contrast, among those who voted for Yoon Seok-youl, opinions were highly divided. Approximately 40% of those who voted for Yoon Seok-youl stated that the martial law was wrong.

Opinions on impeachment show a similar pattern. Those who voted for Lee Jae-myung largely stated it was 'a very good decision,' while opinions were divided among those who voted for Yoon Seok-youl. Approximately 40% of those who voted for Yoon Seok-youl stated that the impeachment was a very good decision. Regarding the ruling party's actions during the impeachment process, among those who voted for Yoon Seok-youl, 26.9% stated that they 'should have reflected and accepted the impeachment' or 'should have acted very proactively,' and 15.3% agreed to some extent. This indicates a highly critical view of the ruling party's actions.

Looking at the stances on impeachment and martial law, it is clear that opinions are divided and a split is occurring among voters who previously supported Yoon Seok-youl. We were curious to see if this actually translated into voting choices. It is necessary to examine how opinions on martial law or impeachment were reflected in voting choices. Before that, let's first look at how many Yoon Seok-youl supporters defected, as mentioned earlier.

Analysis of the Scale of Defection and Voting Choices among Yoon Seok-youl Supporters

We examined who those who responded that they voted for Yoon Seok-youl in the 20th presidential election voted for in this election. Of these, 76.8% answered they voted for Kim Moon-soo, followed by Lee Jae-myung at 11.9%, Lee Jun-seok at 8.3%, did not vote at 2.4%, and Kwon Young-guk at 0.6%. The proportion of those who did not vote tends to be underestimated in surveys. The combined percentage of those who voted for Lee Jae-myung or Lee Jun-seok is approximately 20%. This means that about 20% switched their support from Yoon Seok-youl to other candidates. In contrast, 92% of those who voted for Lee Jae-myung voted for him again, indicating that defections occurred among People Power Party supporters.

How to interpret the fact that 11.9% voted for candidate Lee Jae-myung can be viewed differently by individuals. In the impeachment or martial law phase, approximately 40% stated that martial law was wrong and supported impeachment, but only 7.9% actually shifted their vote to candidate Lee Jae-myung. This suggests that strong political polarization played a significant role in voting choices. In other words, while people criticized the act itself as wrong, a considerable number still voted for the People Power Party. From another perspective, voting choices are not often changed completely in a short period. The shift of about 12% to another camp within three years can be considered a somewhat significant event in altering election outcomes.

We will examine how opinions on martial law in the 20th presidential election were reflected in voting choices.

This was measured on a 5-point scale. Among those who said it was 'a highly legitimate exercise of authority,' 98.4% voted for Kim Moon-soo. This is not surprising. Only among those who held the position that it was 'a highly unconstitutional and illegal act' (approximately 26%) did voting choices diverge significantly. Less than half of these individuals, 46%, supported Kim Moon-soo. This indicates that opinions on emergency martial law were partially reflected in voting choices.

Opinions on impeachment show a similar pattern. Those who considered it a 'wrong decision' were more likely to vote for Kim Moon-soo, while those who considered it a 'very good decision' showed weaker support for Kim Moon-soo. In conclusion, it can be seen that the martial law and impeachment issues effectively caused a division among Yoon Seok-youl voters. Examining those who defected from Yoon Seok-youl's support base for reasons other than martial law and impeachment, we first looked at regions. There were no significant differences except in the Gwangju-Jeolla region. Regionally, excluding Honam, it is difficult to say that a particularly large number of people defected.

Analysis of Defection Factors: Region, Ideology, Generation, Election Fraud, Gender Issues

By ideology, the more individuals identified as progressive, the more likely they were to shift away from Yoon Seok-youl. Those who identified as conservative largely remained and voted for the People Power Party. In terms of generation, there was a significant defection among those in their 20s. One of the reasons Yoon Seok-youl won the last presidential election was his ability to capture the votes of those in their 20s and early to mid-30s, but this time there was a substantial defection among those in their 20s. The defections among the 20s, in particular, largely went to Lee Jun-seok. As age increased, the defection rate decreased, which is consistent with the theory that party identification generally solidifies with age.

Looking at whether defectors voted for Lee Jun-seok or Lee Jae-myung, younger individuals were more likely to shift to Lee Jun-seok, while older individuals were more likely to vote for Lee Jae-myung rather than Lee Jun-seok. This suggests that despite Lee Jun-seok being conservative, older conservative voters may perceive Lee Jun-seok and the Reform Party negatively. Regarding attitudes towards election fraud, the conservative camp frequently discusses election fraud. In response to the question of whether there was election fraud or manipulation in this election, those who answered 'very likely' voted largely for Kim Moon-soo. These were people who did not trust the election process itself. Conversely, among those who thought 'not likely,' meaning those who did not believe in the election fraud issue, there were more defections from the original Yoon Seok-youl supporter base.

There are differing opinions within the conservative camp regarding election fraud, and there were differences in voting choices between those who continued to emphasize it and those who did not.

Finally, let's examine attitudes towards gender issues. Regarding the statement that the government should make efforts to resolve disadvantages and discrimination faced by women in society, those who answered 'do not agree at all' were more likely to have supported Lee Jun-seok. This indicates that those within the conservative base who held negative views on gender issues were more likely to have shifted to Lee Jun-seok. There was no significant difference between Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo in this regard.

Analysis of Voting Choice Variables using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model

We examined a multinomial logistic regression model including the variables discussed so far. The variables that distinguished voting choices between Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jae-myung were stances on martial law, ideology, region of residence (Seoul was negative compared to Daegu-Gyeongbuk, but interpretation is needed regarding its significance), and stance on election fraud. The generation variable did not appear.

In contrast, comparing Lee Jun-seok and Kim Moon-soo, the stance on martial law remained a distinguishing factor, but ideology did not. In other words, those who identified as progressive shifted to Lee Jae-myung, not Lee Jun-seok. In terms of generation, there was a generational split within the conservative camp, with the younger generation shifting to Lee Jun-seok. Stances on election fraud were present for both, but differences in gender views distinguished Kim Moon-soo from Lee Jae-myung within the conservative base.

These factors ultimately led to defections from the Yoon Seok-youl camp.

Thank you for the interesting question. Our Seoul National University student newspaper conducted a survey of 1,000 Seoul National University students, and the results were very typical of young men and women in their 20s. We need to observe the future policy direction of Lee Jun-seok and whether the gender issue, which targets support from men in their 20s and 30s, can be sustained.

Shin Jeong-seop, Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Soongsil University.

Managed and Edited by Song Chae-rin, EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 211) | crsong@eai.or.kr