[North Korea and the World] 'Kim Ju-ae as Likely Successor'…What is the Truth?

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ntIgtzzIaM

Video Script

Possibility of Kim Ju-ae's Designation as Successor and NIS Analysis

North Korea still holds large-scale mass games. Thank you sincerely to everyone watching North Korea and the world. What I would like to discuss with you today concerns Kim Ju Ae. We have covered Kim Ju Ae once before, and I intend to cover her again. The primary reason is that the National Intelligence Service (NIS) provided a comprehensive report on Kim Jong Un, including Kim Ju Ae, to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee last July. As you know, the NIS is an intelligence agency, so I believe their report warrants considerable attention. According to the NIS report, North Korea is hinting that Kim Ju Ae is a likely successor at this time and is undergoing succession training. To my recollection, this is the first time the NIS has referred to Kim Ju Ae as a successor. Previously, they maintained a cautious stance, suggesting she might be a successor, but the mention of succession training warrants particular attention. Today, I will provide a more in-depth explanation of the basis for the NIS's assessment and then discuss the difficulties and challenges North Korea would face if Kim Ju Ae were appointed successor.

The NIS's report to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee indicates that she is being hinted at as a successor from two perspectives. First, Kim Ju Ae's recent activities have increasingly focused on military aspects. Kim Ju Ae first appeared in November 2022. Since then, many of the events she has attended with Kim Jong Un have been related to the military. This is understandable, as a significant portion of Kim Jong Un's on-site guidance and key events are centered around military affairs. While economic achievements should be promoted, North Korea has little to boast about in that regard. Therefore, the domain in which Kim Ju Ae accompanies him is the military. The NIS analysis shows that while military-related activities initially accounted for about 60%, they have recently risen to over 70%. The importance of these military activities lies in the fact that the military remains crucial in the North Korean regime. It is still a system that prioritizes the military. Consequently, Kim Ju Ae's weaknesses are being young and lacking military experience as a woman. In this regard, Kim Jong Un is providing her with experience. Furthermore, it can be interpreted that North Korea is involving her in its symbolic struggle against imperialism.

Second, and I believe this is somewhat more important, North Korea is a nation where symbolism is paramount. I refer to North Korea as a 'theater state' because it heavily relies on bestowing symbolism in various aspects to maintain its regime, and the recipients of this symbolism are its leaders. Recently, terms typically used for successors or supreme leaders have been attached to Kim Ju Ae. Specifically, the term 'hyangdo' (향도).

In North Korea, the term 'hyangdo' is defined in the Korean Language Dictionary as 'to illuminate the path forward in the revolutionary struggle.' The term 'hyangdoja' (향도자) is also used, meaning literally 'one who guides the revolutionary path.' To reiterate, this term has only been applied to North Korea's supreme leaders, Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung. In March 2024, Kim Jong Un took Kim Ju Ae to the completion ceremony of a greenhouse farm. This was widely reported in North Korea, with articles stating, 'The great figures of hyangdo' (향도의 위대한 분들), using the plural form. This can reasonably be interpreted as including Kim Ju Ae among those referred to as 'hyangdo.' The NIS suggests that the use of such terms effectively implies a successor. I concur. As mentioned, North Korea places significant emphasis on such symbolism, and the application of epithets typically reserved for supreme leaders suggests an increased likelihood of Kim Ju Ae being a successor compared to previous indications.

Of course, it should not end here. It is important to continue observing what kind of modifiers are attached to the title 'Kim Ju Ae' going forward. You may or may not be aware, but her official name, 'Kim Ju Ae,' has never been officially used in North Korean state media. Instead, she has been referred to as 'the beloved child,' 'the honorable child,' or 'the respected child.' Her name, 'Kim Ju Ae,' has not yet appeared. Incidentally, Kim Ju Ae's name first became known to the world when Dennis Rodman met Kim Jong Un and Ri Sol Ju, and Ri Sol Ju mentioned having a daughter named 'Ju Ae.' This was later reported by Dennis Rodman in an interview with The Guardian.

Challenges in Designating Kim Ju-ae as Successor

As you know, Dennis Rodman is American and does not speak Korean, so it is uncertain whether he heard it precisely. What is crucial here is that if Kim Ju Ae were definitively established as the successor, her name 'Kim Ju Ae' would eventually be used precisely, accompanied by titles referring to the supreme leader. However, thus far, it is still an ongoing process, and it is appropriate to discuss it in terms of possibility. This brings us back to the initial question: If Kim Ju Ae is appointed successor, what challenges must North Korea overcome? The first and most critical question is: 'Is a female supreme leader possible?' North Korea remains a male-dominated society with strong Confucian traditions. There are no women in high-ranking positions in North Korea. The most prominent female figure in recent times is Choi Son Hui, the current Minister of Foreign Affairs, but even she is an exception, and historically, few women have held high positions.

North Korea is called a guerrilla state. Professor Wada Haruki of the University of Tokyo first referred to North Korea as a guerrilla state. It is as follows. In the 1930s, Kim Il-sung engaged in partisan warfare. It is true that Kim Il-sung fought against Japanese imperialism. Although cases like the 'Cheonbu Battle' were absurdly exaggerated, it is true that he fought. North Korea has utilized Kim Il-sung's partisan struggle in the 1930s as a narrative to this day. The core of this narrative is that Kim Il-sung, facing extremely difficult circumstances, fought partisan warfare, defeated the Japanese imperialists, liberated Korea, and then, inheriting the partisan tradition, fought against the US imperialists and won the Korean War.

Furthermore, they continuously reproduce and re-educate the populace with the narrative that they are still fighting against American imperialism and the South Korean puppets, even after more than two generations have passed. You might think, 'Does this really make sense?' But it does. On February 8, 2023, North Korea held a military parade, and the unit symbolizing the anti-Japanese guerrillas stood at the very front. They constantly reiterate: 'Through the anti-Japanese guerrilla struggle of the 1930s, we have lived with pride as a legitimate state. The Republic of Korea is more prosperous than us, but they live well under the patronage of American imperialists, while we, though perhaps economically challenged, live a more self-reliant life.' This is how they continuously educate and indoctrinate the North Korean populace. Therefore, the narrative from the 1930s is immensely important to North Korea, and a concept derived from this is that of the guerrilla family. While engaged in military activities, guerrilla families lived together, supported by women and other family members. Their military weakness allowed for hit-and-run tactics and mobility, requiring them to relocate frequently. In this context, the leader played a crucial role in protecting the guerrillas. This is where the concept of the 'Benevolent Leader' (어버이 수령) originates. The idea that the 'father' loves, protects, and guides the entire populace remains a valid concept in this familial state. What is another key characteristic of Confucianism? Confucianism traditionally emphasizes loyalty and filial piety. Loyalty and filial piety are extremely important in the North Korean regime.

Loyalty signifies allegiance to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and filial piety implies devotion to the leader, who is equated with the DPRK. Another characteristic of Confucianism is its conservatism, emphasis on abstract principles, and rejection of material pragmatism. Does this description not perfectly fit North Korea? Thus, when North Korea holds large-scale mass games, expressions like 'Do not expect any change from me' emerge. This reflects their adherence to Confucian traditions and their determination to follow their own path regardless of external changes. In this context, while inheriting the traditions of the guerrilla state and the familial state, one of the enduring characteristics of the North Korean regime is the necessity of demonstrating personal achievements.

This is, in a way, the fate of a one-man rule system, particularly a hereditary regime, that has been passed down. Although the legitimacy of the regime originates from Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un have needed to demonstrate their own achievements. Without them, it is very difficult to maintain the regime. Kim Jong Il, at least, did something. While it is true that he designated Kim Il Sung as the founding father, during Kim Jong Il's era, the Cold War ended, and socialist countries collapsed, posing a significant threat to North Korea's regime. At that time, Kim Jong Il overcame these challenges through 'Juche-oriented socialism' and 'military-first politics.' This allowed the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to survive to this day.

These are Kim Jong Il's achievements, and Kim Jong Un's achievements have been evident over the past decade: the nuclear weapons. In their own terms, nuclear armament. By possessing nuclear weapons, they claim to have achieved a monumental feat, not only protecting the DPRK but also ensuring its preservation for future generations, without the need for the arduous and precarious struggle of their grandfather, who had to fight and flee. They propagate this as an immense accomplishment. But is this feasible for Kim Ju Ae? Can she, as a woman, truly embody the symbolism of this military struggle? Another aspect is the 'fatherly leader' image, represented by the familial state. This is somewhat gender-neutral. In a situation where the concept of 'father' has expanded to 'parent,' can a woman sufficiently embody this symbolism? Combined with the aforementioned Confucian traditions and a male-dominated society, can this be possible? Therefore, if Kim Jong Un truly intends to make Kim Ju Ae his successor, a reinterpretation of all these elements will be necessary. The role of women must be incorporated into the guerrilla tradition, the image of women must be integrated into the 'fatherly leader' concept, and significant aspects of the Confucian tradition must be abandoned. If the very narrative that has formed the foundation of the North Korean regime for over 70 years is altered, the future of the North Korean regime presents a formidable challenge for Kim Jong Un.

Conclusion: Fundamental Challenges to the North Korean Regime

To conclude, as I mentioned at the beginning, North Korea declared the abandonment of unification. Even after eight months, they have failed to provide any explanation for the legitimacy or justification of this declaration. Typically, key North Korean media outlets like the Rodong Sinmun and the Korean Central News Agency would provide detailed accounts following such a policy shift, both for external propaganda and for educating their own citizens. However, there is a complete absence of such content.

In the same vein, if Kim Ju Ae is truly to be made successor, it would involve overturning the traditions of the guerrilla struggle, the symbolism of the 'fatherly leader,' and the traditions of a Confucian state. How will this be explained? I believe that if he makes that choice, Kim Jong Un will inevitably face immense challenges, and fundamental questions will arise as to whether North Korea, as a 'theater state,' can continue to stage its performance effectively. Thank you for watching.

■ Park Won-gon, Director of the North Korea Research Center at the East Asia Institute (EAI) and Professor at the Department of North Korean Studies, Ewha Womans University.

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Han-soo, EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | hspark@eai.or.kr

■ Responsible for and edited by: Park Han-soo, EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | hspark@eai.or.kr