[North Korea and the World] Background and Meaning of North Korea's Dispersal of Trash Balloons Towards South Korea

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IHcy9NHwuo

Video Script

North Korea's New Provocation: Scattering Trash Balloons and Their Background

Starting on the night of May 28th, North Korea began launching trash balloons, and some expressed concern that they might contain biochemical weapons. However, if biochemical agents are placed in balloons and detonated in the air, they are ineffective. Hello, I am Park Won-gon. Thank you sincerely to everyone watching North Korea and the World. Last week, we discussed the US presidential election, and today, we return to the Korean Peninsula issue, the North Korea issue, to discuss a very peculiar provocation shown by North Korea in May. The trash balloons are a type of provocation that North Korea has never engaged in before. Therefore, today, I will take this time to explain the intentions behind this action and offer my analysis. First, on May 25th, North Korea's Vice Minister of Defense, Kim Kwang, who is equivalent to a vice minister in our country, and North Korea has several vice ministers, issued a statement. The statement warned of three things, and as it was issued by the Ministry of Defense, it includes military content. There are three points. First, it raises issues related to the air power and surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities that South Korea and the United States have recently been strengthening. It also raises general issues regarding the ROK-US combined air training. North Korea claims this is a key provocative act that creates military tension. This was discussed as the first point. The second point concerns leaflets, or propaganda flyers. It again raised issues regarding the leaflets being sent into North Korea by North Korean human rights organizations in South Korea. The following expression appears.

“South Korea's despicable psychological warfare tactics are now emerging.” It is no longer strange to see the term 'South Korea' in North Korean media. Previously, they considered the term 'Republic of Korea' very strange and typically used 'Namjoson' (South Korea), never using the term 'Republic of Korea.' However, as you all know, since Kim Jong Un declared the inter-Korean relationship as one between 'warring states' at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the concept of 'one people' has been abolished, and they refer to it as 'South Korea.' Therefore, when discussing bilateral relations or inter-Korean relations, expressions like 'relations between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and South Korea' or 'ROK-ROK relations' are emerging. Regardless, the important point is that it raised issues regarding the leaflets sent by South Korea. The third point is that 'the number of times the enemy has violated our maritime border has also been revealed.' This means they have again raised issues regarding our legitimate reconnaissance activities near the NLL or the movement of vessels within our territorial waters. While raising these three issues, they issued a warning: North Korea always refers to what we send as

It refers to them as 'trash' and 'filth.' It warned that 'we will retaliate in kind against the act of scattering filth.' Specifically, it stated, 'Numerous pieces of toilet paper and filth will soon be scattered across the border areas and rear areas of South Korea, and you will directly experience how much manpower and effort it takes to collect them.' This is what Vice Minister of Defense Kim Kwang said on May 25th. And then, as you are all aware, they actually launched the trash. Trash balloons flew over. We were very taken aback. When the balloons were flying over, our initial assessment could not accurately determine what was inside, so the government issued warnings and proceeded with collection. However, upon opening them, we found literal trash inside. It is embarrassing to say, but there was feces, worn-out shoes, and truly garbage attached to the balloons. These are latex balloons, large double balloons made of a material that does not tear easily. Attached to the balloons

It does not seem to be the case, but they are equipped with a timer to automatically detonate after a certain period and fall at a specific location. The balloons themselves are not equipped with navigation devices. Those we send from South Korea have navigation devices that allow for GPS location confirmation, but those sent from North Korea do not appear to have GPS. Nevertheless, it is true that they travel via wind. For example, if these balloons are sent from western North Korea, they spread and descend across the entire southern Korean Peninsula. In response to the question of whether North Korea sent these trash balloons, since these balloons move with the wind, South Korean civic groups began sending balloons to the North starting in April.

North Korea's Sensitivity to 'Leaflets' and Regime Threat

This is because the wind in winter blows from south to north, making it impossible to send balloons effectively. Therefore, it is a known fact that some groups began sending them from April onwards, and North Korea has started to retaliate against this. Thus, it can be seen that they have indeed sent these trash balloons. You might have questions here. Why is North Korea so sensitive to balloons sent from South Korea to North Korea? This is one of the important questions. From North Korea's perspective, this poses a significant threat to their regime. Firstly, although there are several groups sending them from within South Korea, the contents vary slightly. However, contrary to North Korea's claims, they are not filled with contaminated waste at all; rather, they contain many daily necessities. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, they contained painkillers like Tylenol, as North Korea lacks medicine.

There are also items like rice, goods that North Korea needs, and USB drives containing South Korean culture. There is no trash at all. When you interview these organizations, they state that these are humanitarian aid items sent to North Korea. That is one aspect. Another aspect is that some organizations include leaflets, which discuss problems within North Korea, or simply content about the outside world. The content North Korea is most sensitive to is 'the secret of Kim Jong-un's birth.' While the North Korean populace may be aware, the process of the 'Baekdu bloodline,' North Korea's ruling lineage, follows the tradition of primogeniture. This is a Confucian concept. Therefore, Kim Jong-il was the eldest son, but Kim Jong-un is not the eldest son. It is a known fact that Kim Jong-nam was effectively poisoned by Kim Jong-un. Kim Jong-un is the second son of Kim Jong-il's third wife.

stated that they would resolve the issue. Resolving the issue meant preventing the sending of leaflets from South Korea to North Korea. This eventually led to what we commonly refer to as the 'Leaflet Ban Act,' and despite the South Korean government's active efforts to resolve this issue, North Korea disregarded all of it and created extreme tension. At the time, a statement was issued on June 16th by the North Korean General Staff announcing four military actions. These included redeploying regimental-level units to the Mount Kumgang and Kaesong areas, which are symbolic sites of inter-Korean joint ventures, effectively militarizing them again. Second, they announced the restoration of guard posts (GPs) in the demilitarized zone (DMZ) in accordance with the inter-Korean military agreement. Although they were indeed restored after North Korea declared them nullified last year following the September 19th military agreement, they spoke of this in 2020. Third, as a military action, they stated they would raise the border security alert level along the entire front line between South and North Korea to Level 1, signifying a very high level of risk. Fourth, and finally, they stated:

emerged and stated they would resolve the issue. Resolving the issue meant preventing South Korean civic groups from sending leaflets to North Korea. Later, this led to what we commonly refer to as the 'Anti-Leaflet Law,' and despite the South Korean government's active efforts to resolve the issue, North Korea disregarded all of this and created extreme tension. At the time, around June 16th, the North Korean General Staff announced four military actions, which included redeploying regimental-level units to Geumgangsan and Kaesong areas. These were symbolic locations of inter-Korean cooperative projects, and they intended to remilitarize them. Secondly, in accordance with the inter-Korean military agreement, they stated they would restore guard posts (GPs) in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Indeed, after North Korea declared them nullified last year following the September 19th Military Agreement, they were restored. In any case, these were the statements made in 2020. As a third military action, they announced they would raise the border security alert level along the entire front line between South and North Korea to Level 1, signifying a very high level of risk, the highest possible. Fourthly, they stated the following.

Connection Between 2020 Military Actions and Current Trash Balloon Provocation

“We will open areas favorable for scattering anti-South Korea leaflets and provide military guarantees for the North Korean people to engage in this struggle of scattering anti-South Korea leaflets.” In other words, they stated they would send leaflets to South Korea. However, the four military actions in 2020 were ultimately suspended by Kim Jong Un at a preliminary meeting of the Central Military Commission six days later, and the plan for anti-South Korea military actions proposed by the General Staff was not implemented. While the GP restoration, as mentioned earlier, was later implemented, the leaflets were sent this time.

Kim Yo-jong's Statement and Criticism of 'North Korean Style Freedom of Expression'

As mentioned earlier, this was a response to what we sent in April, and it indicates how sensitive North Korea is to the issue. Leaflets began to descend from the night of May 28th, and on May 29th, Vice Director Kim Yo Jong issued another statement. This statement is quite baffling: she justified their actions as 'North Korean-style freedom of expression.' Our government did not initiate the sending of leaflets. As a liberal democracy, freedom of expression is guaranteed, making it difficult for our government to prevent organizations in South Korea from sending them. In principle, it is a situation where they cannot be stopped. However, North Korea reverses this narrative, claiming they are also exercising freedom of expression. There are several problems with this, which are common sense. First, freedom of expression is not exercised by the state as the main actor. Freedom of expression guarantees the freedom of expression of the citizens. Therefore, South Korea, which considers North Korean human rights

and is concerned about helping North Korea from a humanitarian perspective, is compelled to guarantee the inflow of various information through the freedom of expression of its citizens. However, the literal filth and trash that North Korea sends to South Korea is an act initiated by the North Korean government. It is an act initiated by the General Reconnaissance Bureau of North Korea, which oversees North Korea's anti-South Korea military operations and other activities. Therefore, it is naturally government-led. Is Vice Director Kim Yo Jong not also acting in her capacity as a government official? This statement was made by the government. As mentioned earlier, Vice Minister Kim Kang of the Ministry of National Defense is also a government official. The claim that the government is exercising freedom of expression is nonsensical. Therefore, while there are various concerns from the perspective of preventing this, overall, I believe North Korea is employing a strategy of self-inflicted harm through re-evaluation. The leaflets pose a significant threat, but since they cannot be effectively blocked, they are resorting to sending filth. North Korea's objectives are thought to be one or two. One is to harass South Korea by sending filth. The aim is to amplify criticism against organizations sending leaflets within South Korea, thereby halting the distribution of leaflets and potentially causing internal conflict within South Korea, or seeking to achieve such an outcome. Another objective is that this is highly emotional. Since the leaflet distribution is something that would infuriate Kim Jong Un, it is plausible that key North Korean leaders, including Kim Yo Jong, are trying to curry favor with Kim Jong Un. They might have said something like, 'Leader Comrade, we have also sent actual filth to South Korea.'

Multifaceted Intentions Behind Scattering Trash Balloons and Potential for Inter-Korean Social Division

It could be considered an action akin to that. I will not offer an evaluation. I will leave the evaluation to you, our viewers. It is a deeply regrettable situation, I feel. Furthermore, some are questioning whether our security is being undermined by these trash balloons. In my judgment, they do not pose a direct and significant threat to our security. Of course, there is a possibility of property or human damage if these descending trash balloons explode and fall, but currently, it does not appear to be the case. North Korea sent approximately 1,000 balloons each in 2016 and 2017. At that time, some heavy items were included, causing damage to some South Korean vehicles and property losses, but it is judged that the current situation is not at that level. However, the possibility of them continuing to send them in the future remains open, and preparations are necessary. It is somewhat challenging to prepare for this. These types of balloons are not easily detected by radar, and

Assessing the Security Threat of Trash Balloon Provocations and Response Challenges

there are not many military options available to us to shoot them down. Therefore, while you should not worry excessively, it is important to recognize that they do cause us inconvenience. Some speculate whether they might contain biochemical weapons, but the possibility of North Korea deploying biochemical weapons via balloons is considered extremely low. This is because if biochemical agents are placed in balloons and detonated in the air, they lose their effectiveness by the time they reach the ground. That is to say,

Possibility of Biochemical Weapon Deployment and Lack of Strategic Significance

Furthermore, there are not many military options available for us to shoot down these balloons. Therefore, while there is no need for excessive worry, it is important to acknowledge to some extent that this causes us inconvenience. Some speculate whether these balloons might be carrying biochemical weapons, but the possibility of North Korea deploying biochemical weapons via balloons is considered very low. This is because if biochemical agents are contained in a balloon and detonated in the air, they lose their effectiveness by the time they reach the ground. That is,

they have no practical effect as weapons. Another point is that biochemical weapons are weapons of mass destruction. If they were to be dispersed across the entire Korean Peninsula, it would constitute total war. Furthermore, the moment North Korea's weapons of mass destruction are deployed to South Korea, all of the ROK-US military options would be activated. Because they are weapons of mass destruction, the likelihood of North Korea doing so is low. If they were truly intending to use biochemical weapons for an invasion of the South, they would utilize their other delivery systems to strike strategic targets precisely. As mentioned, these balloons simply drift with the wind, making precise targeting of strategic objectives impossible. Today, I have explained the differentiated nature of North Korea's provocations in May. Viewers, your likes and subscriptions are of great help.

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Park Won-gon, Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies (and Professor at Ewha Womans University), explains that North Korea launched the garbage balloons in response to South Korean 'leaflets' that resumed in earnest in April, posing a threat to the legitimacy of Chairman Kim Jong Un's Paektu bloodline. Furthermore, he criticizes the justification of this provocation by Vice Department Director Kim Yo Jong, who frames it as 'North Korean-style freedom of expression,' arguing it lacks credibility because it is an act initiated by the North Korean regime, irrespective of guaranteeing the freedom of its citizens. Director Park explains that through the distribution of garbage balloons, North Korea seeks to amplify criticism against domestic organizations that distribute leaflets into North Korea, thereby inciting internal conflict within South Korean society. However, he asserts that this will not pose a direct security threat to the Korean Peninsula.

■ Park Won-gon_Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies. Professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University.

Park Won-gon, Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies (and Professor at Ewha Womans University), explains that North Korea launched the garbage balloons in response to South Korean 'leaflets' that resumed in earnest in April, posing a threat to the legitimacy of Chairman Kim Jong Un's Paektu bloodline. Furthermore, he criticizes the justification of this provocation by Vice Department Director Kim Yo Jong, who frames it as 'North Korean-style freedom of expression,' arguing it lacks credibility because it is an act initiated by the North Korean regime, irrespective of guaranteeing the freedom of its citizens. Director Park explains that through the distribution of garbage balloons, North Korea seeks to amplify criticism against domestic organizations that distribute leaflets into North Korea, thereby inciting internal conflict within South Korean society. However, he asserts that this will not pose a direct security threat to the Korean Peninsula.

■ Park Won-gon_Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies. Professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University.

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Ji-soo, EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr