[Global NK Interview] Kim Yo Jong and North Korea's Fourth-Generation Succession

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFA-xCiV3yk&si=bD13Wi4DX8cv-yka

Lee Seong-yoon, a Fellow at the Wilson Center, forecasts the future of North Korea's fourth-generation succession based on his book, "The Sister." Lee analyzes that the North Korean regime will likely put forward Kim Yo Jong to engage in a "charm offensive" towards the international community in the near future, and advises that the U.S. and the international community must take Kim Yo Jong's presence seriously to avoid being swayed. He also emphasizes that the North Korean regime's recent public appearances of Kim Ju Ae are a plan orchestrated by Kim Yo Jong to refresh the image of the Kim Jong Un regime. Considering Kim Ju Ae's young age, Lee stresses that Kim Yo Jong will remain the sole "Paektu Bloodline" successor candidate for at least the next 15 years.

■ Lee Seong-yoon, Wilson Center Fellow.

■ Editor: Park Ji-soo, EAI Research Fellow

Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

Hello everyone, today we have a uh Global North Korea interview with Professor Seong-yoon Lee uh at the Wilson Center. He recently published a great book, uh this one, "The Sister," which is an in-depth, very meticulous analysis of Kim Yo Jong, the sister who has a lot of policy impact on North Korea. So today, we'll have Professor Lee Seong-yoon here and ask uh about the book, book, and also the policy issues that's coming for next year for South Korea and the United States. Thank you very much for having me. I'm honored to be here. Thank

you. I'd like to start off with a broader question about your excellent book. Uh, who did you have in mind as a primary readership while writing this book? Are there any specific themes or messages that you aim to convey, especially concerning the international community's North Korea policies? Well, thank you very much. Initially, I had in mind North Korea watchers, that is, people who take interest in North Korea, people in the U.S. government, perhaps, or NGOs, and so on. But by and by, I entertained this fanciful notion that

perhaps even the people not really well-informed about North Korea might come to take some interest because the emergence of a powerful, preeminent woman, a princess-like figure in the North Korean government, is an anomaly. When Kim Yo Jong made her splashy debut by visiting South Korea for the Winter Olympics in 2018, uh, much of the South Korean nation seemed to fall in love with her, although she didn't really do all that much. She never spoke to the press or to the public; she just showed up and smiled. Um,

So this kind of photogenic, pretty, mysterious, young, powerful woman from North Korea is innately an interesting subject. So I harbored this fanciful notion that a female villain, a sister to the North Korean dictator, in itself might be an interesting subject. In writing the book, I had a lot of help along the way. I had several excellent graduate students who scoured through every reference to Kim Yo Jong and Kim Jong Un in Chinese on the mainland and in Taiwan. And fortunately, I read uh Korean, so I looked up every single North

Korean reference to Kim Yo Jong that I could find. And with slight exaggeration, I probably watched hundreds of hours of North Korean video footage, which were very helpful because, um, even during official events like a summit meeting between Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon in at Pyongyang on April 27th, 2018, and Kim's meetings with Donald Trump later on, the two siblings, the brother and sister, often look at each other for a split second, they steal glimpses of each other and smile as if to communicate something. I don't know

what, but they look pleased. And the body language when the two are together, um, suggests to me that there's genuine brother-sisterly affection and trust between the two. And to give you one more example that I mentioned in the book, um, at the Pyeongyang Summit, there was a banquet in the evening, and there were some additional new guests from the South Korean side, former officials and academics and so on. So the four principals, President and Mrs. Moon, and Kim Jong Un and his wife Ri Sol Ju, stood and received everyone, even those who had

been in attendance throughout the day. Like Kim Yo Jong shook hands with everyone. And when Kim Yo Jong was to shake her brother's hand, the two were trying to contain their giggle. You can see them smiling and trying not to laugh. And the sister does not look at her brother in the eye. Um, at the end of the banquet, there was an outdoor musical concert, and everyone, including Kim Jong Un and President Moon, all other officials, are already seated at the outdoor bench. And the last person to exit the building is Kim Yo Jong.

And she's not in any great rush. She casually, rather slowly walks over and takes her seat at the edge in the front row. And of course, in Korean culture, if you're late and you're not the top person in the gathering, you, uh, at least hurry up or you pretend to be in a rush. But no, she very casually walked over. And I don't think anyone else in North Korea, uh, is in a position to project that kind of attitude at such an important meeting. So I think, uh, that speaks to her unique position. When her brother speaks, you know, all the other

officials applaud, clap hands rapturously with exaggeration and scream as if they're at a football game. Oftentimes, Kim Yo Jong is just doing this. And you'll remember one of the formal charges made against their uncle, Jang Song Thaek, back in 2013, was half-heartedly clapping. Sometimes Kim Yo Jong doesn't clap at all. Sometimes, when her brother makes an entrance, as it did with his cute-looking daughter, uh, in February at for the, um, Army Day Foundation Day, February 8th, um, parade, and the, uh, preceding the parade, the banquet, everyone in the room,

including Jang and all the top officials, are clapping like this. There's one person standing there, arms down, with a smile, wearing a white jacket. It's Kim Yo Jong. North Korea shows such photos to the outside world, and Kim Yo Jong is in charge of the powerful Propaganda and Agitation Department, so I think she would have approved that kind of release, uh, herself. So she's an innately interesting figure to me. But I thought maybe, uh, the elevation of this female co-star since the onset of COVID, and she's issued about 40 written statements

under her own name, is a subject that might have some broader appeal to the general public. With respect to any policy implications that I had in mind, one of my goals is to argue against the popular view out there that North Korea is merely reactive to what the bigger powers do or say. For example, when the former U.S. President George W. Bush, in his State of the Union Address in 2002, referred to North Korea along with Iraq and Iran as an "axis of evil," uh, there was a lot of, um, mocking, mockery of President Bush in the United

States alone at the time. But and then North Korea goes berserk and shoots missiles and makes threats. Contrary to that kind of dynamic, my view is, going back to the 1940s, North Korea has been the more proactive player. Kim Il Sung persuaded Stalin and Mao to give him the the green light to invade South Korea. Mao and, um, Stalin were only reluctant supporters. And during the Cold War, we know North Korea has launched thousands of small-scale, sometimes lethal attacks on South Korea, against American troops as well. And over

the course of the past 30 years, it's really North Korea that's called the shots. North Korea doesn't merely react to what others say or do. And North Korea knows when to revert to a post-provocation peace ploy, a charm offensive. And I believe the next charm offensive will be led by Kim Yo Jong. She will be the face of North Korea's next pleasant charm offensive. And this is what I try to underscore in my narrative: watch out, just because she's a photogenic, pretty, powerful young woman, it doesn't mean that she's telling the truth entirely.

Let's remember that she is the number two official in this arguably uniquely cruel dictatorship. They have their own interests in mind and will talk about pleasant things like reconciliation, unification, denuclearization. But the pervasive tendency to patronize a young, intelligent woman will work to North Korea's Advantage because whoever is Kim Yo Jong's interlocutor, the U.S. President or whoever it may be, may be prone to thinking, perhaps it's my own innate intelligence and charisma and charm that's working magic here. Uh, maybe

she's malleable; I can teach her something. That kind of patronizing view of the other will only work in North Korea's favor. So let's take her very seriously. Unlimited knowledge, uh, coming from North Korea, from an academic point of view, developed a very good methodology to read behind-the-scenes power relations, uh, in North Korea. Also, uh, you said we have to interpret very tactical, strategic behavior. Kim Yo Jong, from a longer strategic background or context. I think that's very important for South Korea and American policy, uh

point of view. Uh, in South Korea, there is a rising concern about the, uh, successor issue. So these days, as you know, uh, Kim Jong Un's young daughter, Kim Ju Ae, is referred to as the so-called "Morning Star General." So, uh, we are very curious about the next leader if anything happens in North Korea. And you said in the book, uh, Kim Yo Jong's role was anything but subservient to Kim Jong Un, as we interpret the Hanoi meeting. And also, at the very last page of your book, you have a very interesting statement that a female

leader emerging in a male-dominated country like North Korea is an anomaly in itself. So, once mentioned again, in 15 years, Kim Yo Jong will be the only option after Kim Jong Un. So how do you interpret, uh, the post-Kim Jong Un period, or in the longer context, how leadership in North Korea will change? Thank you. On a trivial note, if I may, first, I don't believe her real name is Kim Yo Jong for a couple of reasons. Uh, "Yo" (여) is the Chinese character for love, and I can't find any other North Korean women's name that has that character in it except for Kim Song Ju, and certainly no

one in the younger generation, although this character "a" (애) is used quite frequently in South Korea to name a daughter. Uh, in North Korea, it's out of fashion. The more pertinent reason for my skepticism is that Kim Jong Suk, Kim Jong Un's stepmother, and Kim Yo Jong had a very, um, contentious relationship. So Kim Jong Suk hated his stepmother, and I can't imagine Kim Jong Un would actually use that character to name his own beloved girl. Um, I may come to regret saying this, but I think probably the little girl's name is Ju Ae or Ju Un, but Ju Ae sounds too

South Korean. So my guess is Ju Un, that is, one character from each parent, Ju from, and Un from her father. Um, so what is her role? She's cute, she's prepubescent, she's just a child. Maybe Kim Jong Un has in mind one day to hand power down to his beloved daughter, who knows? But again, she's only 11 or so, maybe 12. What can a 12-year-old girl do? Receive a foreign delegation? Shake hands with the president? She gets on a stool and in front of a podium, gives a public speech to thousands of people? She can't do any of that, right?

Now, for the foreseeable future, until she reaches adulthood. So for the next 15 years, the only viable candidate for the position of the supreme leader, that is, of the direct line descendants, uh, from Kim Il Sung, this Mount Paektu bloodline myth, is Kim Yo Jong. There is no other person being a direct descendant of the founder of the DPRK other than Kim. So, um, then what's going on? Is Ri Sol Ju worried about this powerful position that her sister-in-law, Kim Yo Jong, occupies? As we know, in many cultures, the relationship between two sisters-in-law

is fraught with tension. So there might be some dynamic there. At the same time, when you look at Kim Jong Suk's many wives and consorts, they were powerful in themselves, but I don't see any evidence that they were able to reign in their sister-in-law, Kim Yo Jong. Kim Kyong Hui, of course, was very powerful within the hierarchy, but she was not as publicly influential like Kim Yo Jong. And I see Kim Yo Jong's mark all over the showcasing of Kim Jong Un's daughter because it's in the regime's interest. By parading around this little

girl, Kim Jong Un is playing a psychological game visa the United States. Think in this way, for example, Americans observing this might think, well, Kim Jong Un is a cruel dictator, but he obviously loves his daughter, his family. He's a family man. So he can't be crazy. He wouldn't start a nuclear war, would he? So maybe we'll have to one day accept North Korea as a nuclear state. I think that's one main objective in frequently parading around a cute daughter. Maybe another, uh, objective might be to send a message to Washington: Hello, Mr. Biden,

hello, Mr. Trump. Five, six years from now, neither of you will be around, whereas I'm here to stay and hand down power in time to my daughter or to the next generation. Our nukes are here to stay. Good luck. So this wholesome, happy family image works in North Korea's favor in creating tension and long-term concern in the adversary, and also projecting a very softer image to the, uh, brutish, male-dominated image that is North Korea. And the reason that I say this is perhaps the work of Kim Yo Jong rather than Ri Sol Ju,

although she would be happy with this too, is that I think Kim Yo Jong is very smart. According to various U.S. officials, um, Kim Yo Jong studied hard when she was in Switzerland. She's intelligent. I see a sparkle, signs of intelligence in her eyes, in her gaze, as I did, unfortunately, with her father too. If she were smart, she would realize it's in her own interest to be the guardian, the teacher of her little niece. Her brother would be very pleased by it. It would allay any concerns that Ri Sol Ju might have visa Kim

Yo Jong and her standing, which already is very powerful and would only grow stronger for the next 10, 15 years. Kim is recognized by everyone as the faithful guardian, teacher of, uh, the little daughter. So, um, I don't think this kind of frequent showcasing of the daughter is a reaction to Ri Sol Ju's misgivings or jealousy visa her sister-in-law, uh, about the gender issue. Do you think the, uh, Paektu lineage will overrule the problem of female dictatorship in the future North Korea? Even thinking about the emergence of the first ever female

supreme leader in a male-dominated culture like North Korea is jarring. But what supersedes those cultural political biases is the need to maintain power, power within the royal family, within the Mount Paektu bloodline, the trunk, as North Koreans say, of the bloodline, not the side branches, the stepbrothers and sisters and so on, or even Ri Sol Ju herself. So within that narrow pool of candidates, Kim Yo Jong is the only viable candidate for the next 15 years until the daughter or another child that Kim Jong Un may have becomes an adult. And

at that point, if Kim Yo Jong feels she is being relegated to the role of the cumbersome, unwelcome guardian or steward, as she and her brother purged Jang Song Thaek and had him killed in 2013, who's to say who might strike first? It's, it's a bit silly to speculate, um, 15 years into the future. But, um, I don't think it is a done deal that either Kim Yo Jong or her niece will emerge to be the first female supreme leader. It remains to be seen. But the dynamics create a lot of drama, um, interest, uh, this, uh, aunt-niece relationship, and the fact that Kim

Jong Un does surround himself with a handful of powerful women, that is also an anomaly. It's a recent development in the Kim Jong Un era, so certainly worthy of note. Yeah, I think that's very logical, very good conclusion that you can draw based on your very meticulous analysis of North Korea these days.