[Global NK 인터뷰] 김여정과 북한 4대 세습

YouTube 링크 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFA-xCiV3yk&si=bD13Wi4DX8cv-yka

이성윤 윌슨 센터(Wilson Center) 펠로우는 본인의 저서 『더 시스터(The Sister)』를 토대로 북한의 4대 세습 향방에 대해 전망합니다. 이 펠로우는 북한 정권이 가까운 미래에 국제사회를 상대로 ‘매력 공세(charm offensive)’를 펼치기 위해 김여정을 내세울 것이라고 분석하고, 이에 휘둘리지 않도록 미국과 국제사회는 김여정의 존재를 진지하게 받아들여야 한다고 제언합니다. 아울러 북한정권이 최근 김주애를 공식 석상에 등장시키는 것은 김정은 정권의 이미지 쇄신을 위해 김여정이 기획한 것이라고 강조합니다. 김주애의 어린 나이를 고려할 때 앞으로 최소 15년 간은 김여정이 유일한 '백두혈통' 권력승계 후보라고 강조합니다

■ 이성윤_윌슨센터(Wilson Center) 펠로우.

■ 담당 및 편집: 박지수 , EAI 연구원

    문의: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

영상 스크립트

hello everyone today we have a uh Global North Korea interview with Professor sunun Lee uh in Wilson Center he recently published a great book uh this one the sister which is a indepth very meticulous analysis of Kim jungan a sister who has a lot of Pol policy impact on North Korea so today we'll have Professor isun here and ask uh about the book book and also the policy issues that's coming for next year for South Kore and the United States thank you very much for having me I'm honored to be here thank

you I'd like to start off with a broader question about your excellent book uh who did you have in mind as a primary readership while writing this book are there any specific themes or messages that you aim to con especially concerning the international community's North Korea policies well thank you very much initially I had in mind North Korea Watchers that is people who take interest in North Korea people in the US government perhaps or Nos and so on but by and by I entertained this fanciful notion that

perhaps even the people not really well informed about North Korea might come to take some interest because the emergence of a powerful preeminent woman a princess like figure in the North Korean government is an anomaly when Kima Jong made her splashy debut by visiting South Korea for the Winter Olympics in 2018 uh much of the South Korean Nation seemed to fall in love with her although she didn't really do all that much she never spoke to the press or to the public she just showed up and smiled um

so this kind of photogenic pretty mysterious young powerful woman from North Korea innately is an interesting subject so I harbored this fanciful notion that a female villin sister to the North Korean dictator in itself might be an interesting subject in writing the book I had a lot of help along the way I had several excellent graduate students who scoured through every reference to Kim Jong and kimjongun in Chinese on the mainland and in Taiwan and fortunately I read uh Korean so I looked up every single North

Korean reference to Kim Jang that I could find and with slight exaggeration I probably watched hundreds of hours of North Korean video footage which were very helpful because um even during official events like a summit meeting between kimjongun and South K Korean president m in at p on April 27th 2018 and Kim's meetings with Donald Trump later on the two siblings the brother and sister often look at each other for a split second they steal glimpses of each other and smile as if to communicate something I don't know

what but they look pleased and the body language when the two are together um suggests to me that there's genuine brother sisterly affection and trust between the two and to give you one more example that I mentioned in the book um at the pom Jam Summit there was a banquet in the evening and there were some additional new guests from the South Korean side former officials and academics and so on so the four principls president and Mrs Moon and Kim jongan and his wife Ru stood and received everyone even those who had

been in attendance throughout the day like Kim Jong shook hands with everyone and when Kim Jong was to shake her brother's hand the two were trying to contain their giggle you can see them smiling and trying not to laugh and the sister does not look at her brother in the eye um at the end of the banquet there was an outdoor musical concert and everyone including Kim Jong-un and president Moon all other officials are already seated at the outdoor bench and the last person to exit the building is Kima Jong

and she's not in any great Rush she casually rather slowly walks over and takes her seat at the edge in the front front row and of course in Korean culture if you're late and you're not the top person in the Gathering you uh at least hurry up or you pretend to be in a rush but no she very casually walked over and I don't think anyone else in North Korea uh is in a position to project that kind of attitude at such an important meeting so I think uh that speaks to her unique position when her brother speaks you know all the other

officials applaud clap hands rapturously with exaggeration and scream as if they're at a football game oftentimes Kim Jong is just doing this and you'll remember one of the formal charges made against their Uncle Chang back in 2013 was half-heartedly clapping sometimes Kim Jong doesn't clap at all sometimes when her brother makes an entrance as it did with his cute looking daughter uh in February at for the um army Day Foundation day February 8th um parade and the uh preceding the parade the banquet everyone in the room

including Chan and all the top officials are clapping like this there's one person standing there arms down with a smile wearing a white jacket it's Kim Jong North Korea shows such photos to the outside world and Kima Jong is in charge of the powerful propaganda and agitation department so I think she would have approved that kind of release uh herself so she's an innately interesting figure to me but I thought maybe uh the elevation of this female codesp since the onset of covid and she's issued about 40 written statements

under her own name is a subject that might have some broader appeal to the general public with respect to any policy implications that I had in mind one of my goals is to to argue do the popular view out there that North Korea is merely reactives to what the bigger powers do or say for example when and the former US President George W bush in his State of the Union Address in 2002 referred to North Korea along with Iraq and Iran as aess of evil U there was a lot of um mocking mockery of President Bush in the United

States alone at the time but and then North Korea goes berserk and shoots missiles and makes threats contrary to that kind of dynamic my view is going back to the 1940 North Korea has been the more proactive player Kim Kim persuaded Stalin and Ma to give him the the green light to invade South Korea Ma and um Stalin were only reluctant supporters and during the Cold War we know North Korea has launched thousands of small scale sometimes lethal attacks on South Korea against American troops as well and over

the course of the past 30 years it's really North Korea that's called the shots North Korea doesn't merely React to what others say or do and North Korea knows when to revert to a post provocation peace Ploy a charm offensive and I believe the next charm offensive will be led by Kim Jong she will be the face of North Korea's next Pleasant charm offensive and this is what I try to underscore in my m artive watch out just because she's a photogenic pretty powerful young woman it doesn't mean that she's telling the truth entirely

let's remember that she is the number two official in this arguably uniquely cruel dictatorship they have their own interests in mind and will'll talk about Pleasant things like reconciliation Ron unification denuclearization but the pervasive tendency to patronize a young intelligent woman will work to North Korea's Advantage because whoever is Kim jong's interlocutor the US president or whoever it may be may be prone to thinking perhaps it's my own innate intelligence and Charisma and charm that's working magic here uh maybe

she's malleable I can teach her something that kind of patronizing view of the other will only work in North Korea's favor so let's take her very seriously un limited knowledge uh coming from North Korea from a academic point of view developed a very good methodology to read behind the scene power relations uh in North Korea also uh you said we have to interpret very tactical strategic Behavior kimya J from a longer strategic background or context I think that's very important for South Korea and Americans policy uh

uh point of view uh in South Korea there is a rising concern about the uh successor issue so these days as you know uh Kim jun's young daughter Kim as referred as So-Cal morning Star General so uh we are very curious about the next leader if anything happens in North Korea and you said in the book uh Kim jong's role was anything but subservient to Kim Jong-un as we interpret the Hanoi meeting and also at the same time at the very last page of your book you have a very interesting statement that a female

leader emerging in a male dominated country like North Korea is an a in itself so once mentioned again in 15 years Kim will be the only option after Kim Jun so how do you interpret uh the post schim Jing period or in the longer context how leadership in North K will change thank you on a trivial note if I may first I don't believe her real name is Chu for a couple of reasons uh CH a is the Chinese character for love and I can't find any other North Korean women's name that has that character in it except for Kim song and certainly no

one in the younger generation although this character a is used quite frequently in South Korea to name a daughter uh in North Korea it's out of fashion the more pertinent reason for my skepticism is that Kim Kim jong's stepmother and Kim Jong had a very um contentious relationship so Kim Jong hated his stepmother and I can't imagine kimjongun would actually use that character to name his own beloved girl um I may come to regret saying this but I think probably the little girl's name is chuun or unu but unju sounds too

South Korean so my guess is chuun that is one character from each parent CH from and un from her father um so what is her role she's cute she's prepubescent she's just child maybe Kim jongan has in mind one day to hand power down to his beloved daughter who knows but again she's only 11 or so maybe 12 what can a 12-year-old girl do receive a foreign delegation shake hands with President she get on a stool and in front of a Podium give public speech to thousands of people she can't do any of that right

now for the foreseeable future until she reaches adult so for the next 15 years the only viable candidate for the position of the supreme leader that is of the direct line descendants uh from kimyong this Mount petu bloodline myth is Kim Jong there is no other person being a direct descendant of the founder of the dprk other than Kim so um then what's going on ISU Kim jong's wife worried about this powerful position that her sister-in-law Kim Jong occupies as we know in many cultures the relationship between two sisters-in-law

is brought with tension so there might be some Dynamic there at the same time when you look at Kim jong's many wives and consorts they were powerful in themselves but I don't see any evidence that they were able to reign in their sister-in-law Kim Gangi of course was very powerful within the hierarchy but she was not as publicly influential like kimya Jong and I see kimya jong's Mark all over the showcasing of Kim jong-un's daughter because it's in the regime's interest by parading around this little

girl Kim jongan is playing a psychological game Visa the United States think in this way for example Americans observing this might think well Kim Jan is a cruel dictator but he obviously loves his daughter his family he's a family man so he can't be crazy he wouldn't start a nuclear war would he so maybe we'll have to one day accept North Korea as a nuclear State I think that's one main objective in frequently parading around a cute daughter maybe another uh objective might be to send a message to Washington hello Mr Biden

hello Mr Trump five six years from now on neither of you will be around whereas I'm here to stay and hand down power in time to my daughter or to the next generation Our nukes are here to stay good luck so this wholesome Happy Family Image Works in North Korea's favor in creating tension and long-term concern in the adversary and also reting a very softer image to the maab brutish male dominated image that is North Korea and the reason that I say this is perhaps the work of kimya Jong rather than lisu

although she would be happy with this too is that I think kimya Jong is very smart according to various us officials um kimya Jong studied hard when she was in Switzerland she's intelligent I see a sparkle signs of intelligence In Her Eyes in her gaze as I did unfortunately with her father too if she were smart she it she would realize it's in her own interest to be the guardian the teacher of her little niece her brother would be very pleased by it it would allay any concerns that lelu might have Vis Kim

Jong and her standing which already is very powerful and would only grow stronger for the next 10 15 years Kim is recognized by everyone as the faithful Guardian teacher of uh the little daughter so um I don't think this kind of frequent showcasing of the daughter is a reaction to L misgivings or jealousy Visa her sister-in-law uh about the gender issue do you think the uh P to lineage will overrule the problem of female dictatorship in the future North Korea even thinking about the emergence of the first ever female

supreme leader in a male dominated culture like North Korea is jarring it but what supersedes those cultural political biases is the need to maintain power power within the royal family within the mount petu bloodline the trunk as North Koreans say Of The Bloodline not the side branches the step brothers and sisters and so on or even lisu herself so within that narrow pool of candidates Kim Jong is the only viable candidate for the next 15 years until the daughter or another child that Kim jongan may have becomes an adult and

at that point ifim Jong feels she is being relegated to the role of the cumbersome unwelcome guardian or Steward as she and her brother painted Chang him and had him killed in 2013 who's to say who might strike first it's it's a bit silly to speculate um 15 years into the future but um I don't think it is a done deal that either Kim Jang or her nie will emerge to be the first female supreme leader it remains to be seen But the Dynamics creates a lot of drama um interest uh this uh Aunt niece relationship and the fact that Kim

jongan does surround himself with a handful of powerful women that is also an anomaly it's recent development in the kimjongun era so certainly worthy of note yeah I think that's very logical very good concl clusion that you can draw based on your very meticulous analysis of North Korea these days