[Commentary] South Korea's Public Policy After the Xing Haiming Incident

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VobWzC5h7_s

Lee Dong-ryul, Director of the EAI Center for Chinese Studies and Professor at Dongdeok Women's University, assesses that the recent controversial 'betting' remarks by Chinese Ambassador to Korea Xing Haiming reflect the Chinese government's dissatisfaction with the strengthening of the ROK-US alliance and were inappropriate speech. However, he points out that by becoming bogged down in such non-essential controversies, we are missing the opportunity to discuss and find solutions to serious structural problems facing South Korea and China, such as strategic divergence, the advancement of China's industrial structure, intensifying US-China supply chain competition, and the widening gap between democratic and authoritarian systems. Furthermore, Director Lee Dong-ryul suggests that while South Korea and China should promote mutual understanding through communication regarding their respective concerns and dissatisfactions and seek mutually beneficial cooperation based on pragmatism, academia, the media, and political circles must be vigilant and manage public sentiment to prevent further deterioration and entrenchment.

■ Lee Dong-ryul_Director of the EAI Center for Chinese Studies. Professor of Chinese Language and Literature at Dongdeok Women's University.

■ Responsible Editor: Park Ji-soo, EAI Researcher

Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

Recently, the remarks by Xing Haiming, the Chinese Ambassador to Korea, have caused considerable repercussions in ROK-China relations. The remarks were not only inappropriate in content but also problematic in the place and audience. It can be seen as a significant departure from the normal practices of a diplomat. He publicly criticized the host country's foreign policy, and the language used was indeed harsh and unrefined. Furthermore, the fact that he invited the opposition party leader to the venue and made such remarks is sufficient to raise suspicions about his intentions.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded appropriately. The First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs immediately summoned Ambassador Xing and issued a stern warning and strong protest against his abnormal and provocative behavior, which violated diplomatic norms. I believe this was an appropriate response. It seems that the Chinese government expressed strong dissatisfaction and concern about South Korea's strengthening alliance with the United States through these harsh words. In the current context of escalating US-China competition, China is likely harboring significant suspicion and dissatisfaction, viewing South Korea's strengthening alliance with the US as actively participating in the containment of China.

This can be seen as a clear manifestation of that sentiment. The Chinese government made efforts to manage relations with South Korea to some extent until the early days of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. However, there was an ROK-China summit in Bali in November last year, and in April, President Xi Jinping made an unusually abrupt visit to an LG Display plant in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province. Around that time, China's Xinhua News Agency also published very favorable remarks about Korean companies in an interview with the head of the China headquarters of the CJ Group.

However, China's attitude appears to have begun to change when our government expressed a more active stance on the Taiwan issue and strengthened security cooperation with the US. The current escalation of the controversy is further fueled by the political sphere's expansion of this issue into a subject of political warfare, and by some media outlets responding by capitalizing on domestic anti-China sentiment, making ROK-China relations more complex. In particular, I believe we are missing the opportunity to discuss the fundamental and essential issues facing ROK-China relations.

I would like to focus on what the fundamental and essential issues facing ROK-China relations are and what solutions we should seek for these issues. First, most of what is said about the dramatic development of ROK-China relations over the past 30 years is based on two pillars: economic cooperation and people-to-people exchanges between neighboring countries. Based on the achievements of this development, both countries have come to harbor strategic divergences. South Korea, in particular, has fostered expectations that China will play a cooperative role in addressing North Korea's nuclear issue, given the dramatic development of relations. Meanwhile, China, with the escalation of US-China competition, has expected South Korea to maintain a balanced stance in the US-China competition or at least not actively participate in the US-led economic order targeting China. However, as you may recall, the 2016 THAAD dispute

exposed the strategic divergences and excessive expectations between the two countries. In the process, economic cooperation, which had driven the development of ROK-China relations, has weakened, and people-to-people exchanges have also rapidly contracted as negative sentiments between the peoples of both countries have expanded and been reproduced. The weakening of economic cooperation seems to be due to various complex factors. First, China's industrial structure has advanced more rapidly than expected, and the US and China have engaged in global supply chain competition. During this process, with the war in Ukraine, international sentiment has become highly unstable and uncertain, and volatility has increased, leading to a structural contraction and weakening of economic cooperation between South Korea and China. In this context, the driving forces for maintaining and cooperating in ROK-China relations have significantly weakened, and without securing new driving forces, the relationship is facing a situation where it could move towards a structure of conflict, confirming strategic divergences between the two countries. Within South Korea, the candlelight protests have significantly raised citizens' expectations for democracy and justice, while China, conversely, has strengthened its authoritarian system as the Communist Party's legitimacy is challenged and a third term is established under Xi Jinping's long-term rule, widening the gap in systems and values between the two countries. These structural issues are difficult to resolve through cooperation or discussion solely between South Korea and China, making ROK-China relations face a critical historical juncture.

Therefore, while the repercussions of the remarks are undeniable, what is more important is that both South Korea and China are facing very serious structural challenges and tasks. Thus, it is time to contemplate fundamental solutions and developmental directions for these issues. The vulnerability of ROK-China relations to structural changes in the international community can also be confirmed by the heightened negative sentiment between the peoples of both countries. The reasons for this high negative sentiment can be broadly categorized into three main areas.

The repercussions of the statement are clear, but what is more important is that both China and South Korea are facing very serious structural challenges and tasks. Therefore, it is time to consider fundamental solutions or directions for these issues. The vulnerability of South Korea-China relations to structural changes in the international community can also be confirmed by the fact that negative public sentiment is high in both countries. The negative sentiment among the publics of both countries is very high, and tracing the causes reveals three main reasons.

First, since the early 2000s, when China's rise began in earnest, negative sentiment towards China in South Korea has been expressed gradually and continuously. Ultimately, China's rapid rise, the intensification of US-China competition that followed, and the resulting domestic disparities between South Korea and China have been reflected in negative sentiment. When asked, people in both countries commonly express dissatisfaction that the other country does not mutually respect them. South Korea is dissatisfied that the rising China overlooks or ignores South Korea's importance, while China perceives that South Korea is not accepting the reality of China's rise. Second, the recent widening gap in systems and values between the two countries has been reflected in the public sentiment. Originally, both South Korea and China shared similar systems and values, which led to the establishment of diplomatic relations. However, the recent convergence of the candlelight protests and the strengthening of authoritarianism in China has highlighted the perception of differences in systems and values. These differences in perception have exacerbated issues related to history, traditional culture, and sovereignty, and the resulting conflicts have been amplified and reproduced as negative public sentiment. Third, particularly among South Korea's youth, negative sentiment towards China is very high. This is because concerns about daily safety, such as environmental issues and infectious diseases, which are inherent in relations between neighboring countries, have become more sensitive, leading to a significant increase in antipathy and negative sentiment towards China. In summary, the increase in negative sentiment in both countries can be attributed to the realignment of power dynamics, China's rapid rise and US-China competition, the fundamental differences in systems and values between the two countries, and third, the issue of managing geopolitical risks in relations between neighboring countries. These are, in fact, very structural problems for both countries.

These are problems that are difficult to solve easily, and therefore, the persistent negative public sentiment should by no means be dismissed as a mere trend in public opinion. Attempts by the media to capitalize on the negative sentiment between the two countries or by the political sphere to exploit it for political gain are likely to further worsen the already negative public sentiment, making it more structurally entrenched and leading to the deterioration of bilateral relations. Therefore, it is more important than ever for intellectuals, the media, and political circles in both countries to recognize this seriously and make efforts to manage the relationship so that public sentiment does not deteriorate to a point of no return.

Let us discuss how to approach the fundamental issues in ROK-China relations. First and foremost, I believe we need to face the reality of ROK-China relations more coolly. It is time for policymakers, expert groups, and the media to frankly assess the reality regarding the fundamental issues and how to address them. As you know, ROK-China relations are between neighboring countries that share a border. Therefore, ROK-China relations are also characterized by the most active material and human exchanges in the international community. It is necessary to start all discussions by coolly recognizing that these bilateral relations are currently facing the risk of falling into a structure of chronic tension and conflict. Second, both South Korea and China need to make efforts to understand and resolve each other's concerns and dissatisfactions. For example, China needs to actively express its willingness to cooperate with South Korea in alleviating or resolving instability on the Korean Peninsula, understanding and empathizing with South Korea's concerns about the advancement of North Korea's nuclear program.

Conversely, South Korea needs to continuously communicate its intentions and messages to China, clarifying that the strengthening of the ROK-US alliance is not intended to create a hostile relationship with China or to lead efforts to contain China. Through such efforts, it is crucial to manage the relationship to avoid falling into a cycle of mutual concern. Furthermore, regarding public sentiment, both South Korea and China possess strong nationalistic characteristics, with a high sense of pride in East Asia. In this context, they emphasize mutual respect. However, beneath the emphasis on mutual respect lies a strong perception that the other party should unilaterally respect them, which deepens the emotional divide. Therefore, we have reached a point where we need to explore ways to cooperate within the scope of acknowledging and accepting the reality that both countries have different values and systems, primarily among intellectuals. Another point is the clear difference between ROK-China relations and US-China relations. While ROK-China relations are influenced by and vulnerable to the intensification of US-China competition, there are concerns about the phenomenon of synchronizing ROK-China relations with US-China relations. US-China relations are fundamentally a great power relationship with characteristics of hegemonic competition, whereas ROK-China relations have not traditionally been characterized by adversarial power relations or competition. Rather, as inseparable neighboring countries, both nations should be concerned about and guard against falling into a state of chronic conflict. In this regard, the annual survey on unification consciousness conducted by the Seoul National University Institute for Peace and Unification Studies shows that despite very high negative public opinion towards China, the response that ROK-China cooperation should be strengthened for North Korean denuclearization is the highest at 51.9%, an increase of 6.4% from the 2021 survey. Similarly, in a question asking whether South Korea should remain neutral in the event of escalating US-China conflict, the response was 54%, an increase of 5.3% from 2021.

As you know, negative sentiment towards China in South Korea is very high. And when asked about choosing between the US and China, the response overwhelmingly favors the US. Nevertheless, the response advocating for maintaining balance is also very high, which is noteworthy.

This can be seen as the public coolly recognizing our policy direction. Therefore, rather than 전망ing ROK-China relations solely in a negative direction, there is ample room for them to develop into a stable and cooperative relationship. I believe we need to more actively and positively explore ways to achieve this, as mentioned earlier. First, it is necessary to start with basic dialogues aimed at seeking a mutually beneficial cooperative relationship based on pragmatism.

Currently, many countries in the international community hold negative perceptions of China, but on the other hand, they are seeking cooperation based on pragmatism. China, facing various domestic challenges and difficulties, is also responding to the demands for cooperation from European and other countries. South Korea, as reflected in public opinion, needs to actively seek new constructive strategies for diplomacy with China to maintain cooperative relations with both the US and China, and based on this, create close dialogue channels with China.

It is crucial to recognize that the public, in a sense, has a cool-headed understanding of our policy direction. Therefore, rather than viewing ROK-China relations solely through a negative lens, there remains sufficient potential for them to develop into a stable and cooperative relationship. I believe we need to more actively and positively explore ways to achieve this, as mentioned earlier. First, it is necessary to begin with basic dialogues aimed at seeking a mutually beneficial cooperative relationship based on pragmatism.

Currently, many countries in the international community hold negative perceptions of China, but on the other hand, they are seeking cooperation based on pragmatism. China, facing various domestic challenges and difficulties, is also responding to the demands for cooperation from European and other countries. South Korea, as reflected in public opinion, needs to actively seek new constructive strategies for diplomacy with China to maintain cooperative relations with both the US and China, and based on this, create close dialogue channels with China.

Currently, many countries in the international community hold negative perceptions of China, but on the other hand, they are seeking cooperation based on pragmatism. China, facing various domestic challenges and difficulties, is also responding to the demands for cooperation from European and other countries. South Korea, as reflected in public opinion, needs to actively seek new constructive strategies for diplomacy with China to maintain cooperative relations with both the US and China, and based on this, create close dialogue channels with China.