Commentary: Evaluating the Yoon Suk Yeol Administration's First Year in Foreign Policy and Strategies for the Next Four Years

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxwLD9Qapvk

The US-China relationship, marked by competition over the past five years, is now entering a phase of strategic adjustment, acknowledging the limits of 'decoupling' and pursuing 'de-risking' and 'diversifying.' Jeon Jae-sung, Director of EAI's Center for National Security Studies (Professor at Seoul National University), presents five foreign policy objectives for South Korea amidst a rapidly changing world order and outlines the foreign policy strategies the South Korean government should pursue. Director Jeon emphasizes that South Korea must strengthen the ROK-US alliance, a crucial strategic asset, while appropriately combining multilateral cooperation within ROK-China-Japan and ROK-US-Japan frameworks to expand areas of cooperation not only with like-minded nations but also with non-like-minded countries, thereby maximizing national interests. Furthermore, he urges the government to embark on a long-term endeavor to concretize the abstract regional strategies and inter-Korean proposals put forth by the Yoon Suk Yeol administration over the past year.

■ Jeon Jae-sung, Director of EAI's Center for National Security Studies. Professor of Diplomacy, Seoul National University.

■ Responsible Editor: Park Ji-soo, EAI Research Fellow

Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

The East Asia Institute has prepared a research report on the foreign policy strategies and directions our government should pursue, marking the first anniversary of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration. The report, a collaborative effort by EAI scholars, outlines policy tasks for the coming year. I will briefly summarize the key points on behalf of the authors. The main foreign policy objectives our government should pursue can be summarized into about five categories.

The first objective is the security of value-based diplomacy oriented towards the future. The current administration has expressed strong aspirations for value-based diplomacy and is pursuing it, but this needs to be further substantiated. The second objective is the pursuit of Korean-style integrated security. In rapidly changing circumstances, South Korea must pursue a more advanced security posture in line with the development of new technologies and international dynamics. The third objective is the globalization of inclusive economic cooperation. While many countries have tended to pursue trends like decoupling or de-risking amidst global headwinds, the premise is that economic interdependence between nations will become increasingly close again over time. Therefore, 'reglobalization' has been set as a goal for our government. The fourth objective is the strengthening of advanced technology innovation diplomacy. The importance of technology in this era cannot be overstated.

South Korea must strive to pursue innovative technologies not only domestically but also internationally; this has been set as a primary goal for our government. The fifth objective is the leading pursuit of emerging diplomacy. As we are all experiencing, there are many tasks ahead of us in emerging issues such as climate change and environmental problems, nuclear proliferation, and the regulation of new technologies. As an emerging advanced nation, achieving significant results in these diplomatic areas is a crucial future task. The report's main content discusses how to pursue these five objectives for each country and outlines directions for economic security and North Korea diplomacy. I will briefly explain each point.

Regarding diplomacy with like-minded countries, as demonstrated in the recent ROK-US summit, our president is pursuing a strong value-based diplomacy as a liberal democracy. The value-based diplomacy we pursue is closely linked to our national interests. While one might initially think that value-based diplomacy and national interest diplomacy are contradictory, national interest is, in fact, the most important value in contemporary international politics. Furthermore, values such as liberal democracy, market capitalism, freedom, human rights, peace, and prosperity, which embody South Korea's identity and values, are ones we have successfully realized and can advocate globally, reflecting our own identity. When pursuing policy, we must consider that these values cannot be applied abstractly and uniformly to each issue.

There must be concrete mid-range or detailed policy guidelines for each issue. While our government has presented the highly important and ambitious goal of becoming a 'global pivotal state,' more discussion and policy guidelines are needed on how to realize this in the face of critical diplomatic challenges. Second, these values must not be exclusionary or serve to alienate other countries. The United States is currently dividing the global political landscape into democracies versus authoritarian regimes. While there are certainly aspects that support this view, and our government must pursue complex policies towards authoritarian regimes, it is important to recognize that, from the perspective of the overall historical trend, even authoritarian governments must uphold values such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and peace. Therefore, our government's objective should be to find common ground in the overall direction and specify areas of cooperation.

South Korea's security situation remains in a state of grave crisis, due to North Korea's escalating nuclear and missile threats and the fact that East Asia is a core region for US-China strategic competition. The future environment will likely be characterized by new technologies and evolving geopolitical dynamics. In such circumstances, for South Korea to receive sufficient security guarantees from other nations and possess indispensable military capabilities, it must lay the foundation for rapid development in line with evolving military technology trends. In this regard, the ROK-US alliance is undoubtedly a crucial asset for advancing our future security. President Yoon Suk Yeol has also stated that the ROK-US alliance is a vital strategic asset not only as a value-based alliance but also in terms of economy, industry, technology, information, and culture. In this context, the United States is pursuing the comprehensive concept of 'integrated deterrence,' which, as is well known, aims to comprehensively strengthen military security across land, sea, and air, as well as in cyberspace, space, electromagnetic, and cognitive domains. It also strives to share the benefits and technologies of this integrated security across all domains with its allies.

For South Korea, leveraging the US's trend towards integrated deterrence or integrated security to become a leader in military security is a very important future task for our government. US-China strategic competition is also a critical policy challenge facing South Korea. In November 2017, when President Trump visited the APEC summit in Hanoi, he presented the Indo-Pacific Strategy, and for a long time thereafter, US-China relations have been characterized by competition. Given the significant possibility that this competition could escalate into confrontation and catastrophe, how South Korea pursues its strategy for US-China relations has been a major challenge. It is crucial for us to discern the subtle shifts in the evolving US-China relationship and proactively leverage them. A significant change occurred on November 15 last year at the US-China summit in Bali, Indonesia. As is well known, the US and Chinese presidents implicitly concluded that US-China relations could be cooperative, pursuing strategic stability or crisis stability, and aiming for win-win outcomes and mutual benefit. They also acknowledged that high-level exchanges and diplomatic communication are crucial frameworks for US-China relations. However, tensions have risen again this year due to the Chinese spy balloon incident, and Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Beijing could not proceed as scheduled.

Nevertheless, since US-China relations are not solely important to the US and China, European countries and nations like South Korea, which have significant stakes in US-China relations, are actively engaging with them. For instance, the European Union has actively advocated that US-China relations should not lead to a complete severance or decoupling, but rather should be managed through de-risking and diversification while maintaining overall relations. The US government appears to have actively accepted these European views. Speeches by US National Security Advisor Sullivan and Treasury Secretary Yellen in April indicated that the US also views a complete severance of US-China relations as not an option. Instead, they emphasized that de-risking and diversification are crucial objectives for US-China relations, and that they will lead US-China relations towards healthy and responsible competition. Furthermore, a lengthy meeting between National Security Advisor Sullivan and former Foreign Minister Wang Yi took place in Vienna on May 10.

Therefore, it is a critical issue for South Korea to keenly perceive the subtle changes in US-China relations and devise strategies to identify areas of cooperation and maximize national interests through such cooperation. We have presented an Indo-Pacific Strategy. While the Indo-Pacific Strategy generally pursues freedom, cooperation, peace, and prosperity, the abstract principles presented last year need to be translated into concrete policies this year. To this end, it is necessary to actively cooperate not only with advanced East Asian countries such as Japan and Australia but also with countries like Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. Specific areas of cooperation, particularly in maritime security and economic collaboration, need to be pursued. Economic security also presents several important issues. Within the broader trend of US-China relations mentioned earlier, economic security that maximizes cooperation between South Korea, the US, and China is crucial. Previously, South Korea's economic policy primarily focused on China, but with measures like the Inflation Reduction Act last year and numerous economic issues between South Korea and the US, while basic policy alignment exists between the two countries, there are many economic security challenges that need to be resolved between South Korea and the US. These issues must be wisely overcome in the coming year, according to the policy proposals.

Finally, regarding North Korea, the recent ROK-US summit resulted in strengthened extended deterrence against North Korea's escalating nuclear and missile threats and enhanced mutual assurances between South Korea and the US. The Washington Declaration can be seen as a conclusion that the US's extended deterrence assurance to South Korea has been reinforced. In addition, it was declared that the US would employ all means to strongly deter and respond to North Korea in the event of a nuclear provocation. The issue now is how to pursue dialogue and negotiations with North Korea for denuclearization based on this robust extended deterrence.

It is true that the North Korean nuclear issue has not been a high priority in the foreign policy agendas of the US and China, as evidenced by the recent ROK-US summit and the ongoing shifts in US-China relations. While the US is steadfastly reinforcing extended deterrence for South Korea, the sheer volume and gravity of pressing diplomatic issues facing the US mean that the North Korean nuclear issue is not a top priority. The same can be said for China. Therefore, it is proposed that South Korea must further emphasize the importance of the North Korean nuclear issue and inter-Korean relations over the next year and proactively pursue diplomatic initiatives towards North Korea, both domestically and internationally. To this end, while our government proposed the 'Audacious Initiative' last year to encourage North Korea to engage in denuclearization talks, the political and military aspects of North Korea's demands for security guarantees remain insufficiently addressed. In this regard, the idea of an upgraded version, such as 'Audacious Initiative 2.0,' is also being raised.

Most importantly, South Korea needs to present a more long-term and engaging roadmap to convince North Korea that abandoning nuclear weapons and pursuing denuclearization leadership will ultimately benefit not only North Korea's development but also inter-Korean relations. While past approaches have primarily focused on economic sanctions and military deterrence, the proposal is to build upon this foundation by developing a clearer and more concrete vision for engagement with North Korea, international diplomatic efforts, and the prospects for North Korean denuclearization leadership. This is what our report proposes.

In particular, if North Korea abandons its nuclear weapons and pursues denuclearization leadership, it will be beneficial for North Korea's long-term development as well as for inter-Korean relations. South Korea needs a more long-term roadmap for engagement with North Korea to ensure this. While previous efforts have focused mainly on economic sanctions and military deterrence, the proposal is to build upon this foundation by developing a clearer and more concrete vision for engagement with North Korea, international diplomatic efforts, and the prospects for North Korean denuclearization leadership. This is what our report proposes.

Most importantly, if North Korea abandons its nuclear weapons and pursues denuclearization leadership, it will be beneficial for North Korea's long-term development as well as for inter-Korean relations. South Korea needs a more long-term roadmap for engagement with North Korea to ensure this. While previous efforts have focused mainly on economic sanctions and military deterrence, the proposal is to build upon this foundation by developing a clearer and more concrete vision for engagement with North Korea, international diplomatic efforts, and the prospects for North Korean denuclearization leadership. This is what our report proposes.

Most importantly, if North Korea abandons its nuclear weapons and pursues denuclearization leadership, it will be beneficial for North Korea's long-term development as well as for inter-Korean relations. South Korea needs a more long-term roadmap for engagement with North Korea to ensure this. While previous efforts have focused mainly on economic sanctions and military deterrence, the proposal is to build upon this foundation by developing a clearer and more concrete vision for engagement with North Korea, international diplomatic efforts, and the prospects for North Korean denuclearization leadership. This is what our report proposes.

Therefore, South Korea needs to take the initiative in North Korea diplomacy and international efforts, recognizing the importance of the North Korean nuclear issue and inter-Korean relations over the next year. To this end, while our government proposed the 'Audacious Initiative' last year to encourage North Korea to engage in denuclearization talks, the political and military aspects of North Korea's demands for security guarantees remain insufficiently addressed. In this regard, the idea of an upgraded version, such as 'Audacious Initiative 2.0,' is also being raised.

Most importantly, if North Korea abandons its nuclear weapons and pursues denuclearization leadership, it will be beneficial for North Korea's long-term development as well as for inter-Korean relations. South Korea needs a more long-term roadmap for engagement with North Korea to ensure this. While previous efforts have focused mainly on economic sanctions and military deterrence, the proposal is to build upon this foundation by developing a clearer and more concrete vision for engagement with North Korea, international diplomatic efforts, and the prospects for North Korean denuclearization leadership. This is what our report proposes.