Opening Remarks by Son Yeol, President of EAI, at the 3rd EAI Academy Inauguration Ceremony

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrFXpVSGK90

- Date and Time: August 2, 2022, 6:30 PM

- Opening Remarks: Son Yeol, President of EAI, Professor at Yonsei University's Graduate School of International Studies

Speaker Introduction:

■ Son Yeol_President of EAI, Professor at Yonsei University's Graduate School of International Studies. Dr. Son holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago. He has served as President of Yonsei University's Graduate School of International Studies, Dean of the Underwood International College, Director of the Institute for Sustainable Development, and Director of the Institute for International Studies. He was also a specially appointed visiting professor at the University of Tokyo and a visiting scholar at the University of North Carolina (Chapel Hill) and the University of California (Berkeley). He served as President of the Korean Political Science Association (2019) and President of the Association for Japanese Studies (2012). He has been a Senior Fellow at Fulbright, MacArthur, Japan Foundation, and Waseda University's Advanced Research Center. He has served as a consultant for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, the Northeast Asian History Foundation, and the Korea Foundation, and as a specialist committee member for the Presidential Committee for the North Korean Development, and is currently a member of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Self-Evaluation Committee. His areas of expertise include Japanese foreign policy, international political economy, East Asian international politics, and public diplomacy. His recent publications include Japan and Asia's Contested Order (2019, with T. J. Pempel), Understanding Public Diplomacy in East Asia (2016, with Jan Melissen), “South Korea under US-China Rivalry: the Dynamics of the Economic-Security Nexus in the Trade Policymaking,” The Pacific Review (2019), 32, 6, and 『한국의 중견국외교』 (Middle Power Diplomacy of Korea) (2017, co-edited).

Video Transcript

It seems like you all came despite the inclement weather, and I thank you for coming. I had hoped that the peak of COVID-19 would have passed by the start of our program, but it doesn't seem to be the case, which is a concern. Nevertheless, I am very grateful that you have come, and I feel a sense of responsibility, perhaps because you consider this a significant event. I am Son Yeol, President of the East Asia Institute.

This year marks the third year of the Academy. We started in 2020, and after a few sessions, we had to switch to online due to the pandemic. The second year was also conducted online. This is the third year, and we have returned to in-person sessions. I hope we can continue this way until the end. There was a reason why we planned this program in 2020. It was because we named it "Future World Politics and Future Diplomacy for the Future Generation," or more specifically, "Future Korean Diplomacy."

Why did we focus so much on the future? Around two years ago, we were contemplating the next government and what level of expectation we could have for it. Is this being recorded? We had low expectations. In the year of the presidential election, we have published a series titled "Conditions for Presidential Success" every five years. Around the same time, we also worked on projects such as "Diplomatic Policy of the Next Administration." We couldn't have high expectations.

You all know the reasons very well. Therefore, while looking towards 2022, we thought it was necessary to discuss issues with a minimum outlook of 10 years, perhaps until 2032. That is why we started this program, thinking we couldn't avoid discussing issues with at least a 10-year perspective. At that time, there was much talk about the "MZ generation." Our institute also published articles related to the MZ generation. However, I was thinking about 30 years from now, which would be the generation of our children. If you are in your 20s now, then in 30 years, you will be in your 50s, which was the generation of my parents when I was in college. Therefore, a program for the generation that will be leading in 30 years was necessary. The reason, as you well know, is that there were many discussions about the future of the "three major parties" and other political parties, but they have all disappeared now. At that time, the concern was that the future envisioned for the next generation was too narrow, focusing only on job opportunities.

Even in universities, the biggest concerns for students are jobs and fairness related to jobs. I wondered if we could navigate through South Korea with such a mindset. One thing we discussed then, and still do, is about the Baby Boomer generation in Korea. You know the Baby Boomers, born between 1955 and 1974, or more narrowly, between 1955 and 1963. The peak was between 1958 and 1964, when the birth rate exploded. During that period, about 200,000 people were born each year, and 600,000 entered university. This is an unprecedented number, and such a birth rate is no longer possible.

The problem with the Baby Boomer generation, which spans 20 years, is that between 700,000 and 900,000 people were born each year. Those born in 1955 started to turn 65 in 2020, entering the elderly population and becoming eligible for pensions. I just checked the numbers: 900,000 people were born in 1964, and 500,000 in 1955. The number of 60-year-olds is 900,000.

So, the problem with the baby boomers is that every year, 700,000 to 900,000 of them are born. In 2020, the first of the baby boomer generation started to turn 55. Those born in 1955 are now turning 65 and transitioning into the elderly population, requiring pensions and so forth. I briefly looked at this earlier. It's 960,000 for those born in '64 and 550,000 for those born in '74. For those turning 60, it's 900,000.

In 2030, there are 500,000 people turning 55, and 900,000 people turning 55. There are 500,000 people turning 55, and 450,000 turning 55, and 270,000 turning 55. They generally survive these ages. Then, in 20 years, there will be 270,000. So, over 20 years, from 550,000 to 100,000, the number of elderly people will decrease from 550,000 to 270,000. This means your generation will have to support us. The next generation, including myself and my seniors who have transitioned into the elderly population, will have to support them.

This is not just about a simple disability; they also hold political power. In a democratic system, votes are important. Those turning 60, numbering 900,000, have votes. As mentioned earlier, those turning 20, numbering 500,000, do not. I believe this is a fundamental issue that needs to be addressed in politics, more so than labor unions or job creation. Therefore, you will have to work diligently for pensions and welfare, for your parents' generation, and for future generations. What are the specific political and social challenges that Korea will face over the next 10 to 30 years, which you will have to address?

Domestically, the population is not posing as much of a burden as you might think. Therefore, when discussing Korean diplomacy, we must be interested in how international politics will unfold. The North Korean nuclear issue, which is so important right now, and whether we should continue relations with China are all important issues. However, we need to look further ahead and consider the major international issues. You need to start setting the stage now and recognize that a shift in perspective is needed to view current issues through that lens. The older generation thinks the same way now.

What should be included in the sanctions against North Korea's nuclear test? What should be included? When discussing the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), should we include it or not? I believe that if you approach these issues with a perspective of 10 to 30 years into the future, you will gain a new outlook. This is why the East Asia Institute is holding a special lecture on Korean diplomacy for future generations.

Therefore, we need to broaden the time horizon and the spatial horizon, and cultivate a habit of thinking about issues by looking 10 to 30 years ahead, towards 2030 and 2050. For me, 2050 might not be a significant number; I may or may not be alive. However, for you, who are in your 20s to 50s, or 30s, and under 60, it is problematic to live in the present without considering the peak of your lives. A few points: two years ago, the East Asia Institute published a special report on US-China competition.

It did not take an original stance. It analyzed the GDP of the US and China. However, by synthesizing existing authoritative works, it projected that China would surpass the US economically around 2030 and militarily around 2050. This suggests that the intervening 20 years could be a period of significant crisis. If we view the world in this way, we can more easily prioritize the current issues.

Indeed. For example, regarding the current serious issue of the forced labor compensation solution, it is not that it is unimportant, but rather, from the perspective of looking ahead to the future, is it desirable to expend domestic political energy on this issue and resolve it in a way that is acceptable to Japan? You will have to make such judgments. Therefore, with the hope that you will consider Korean diplomacy by looking 10 to 30 years ahead, we launched this lecture series, which is now in its third installment. As I mentioned earlier, there have been significant changes since two years ago.

This means that Korean society is not moving forward and remains stagnant. Therefore, this project will continue, and we anticipate it will run for some time. Today, I will explain the purpose of this program at the East Asia Institute. Including today, there will be a total of seven lectures. I will be participating as well. We have invited the best lecturers from the East Asia Institute, the best scholars.

We will spend valuable time together. There will be seven lectures, twice a week. I hope that through this lecture series, you will gain much insight, be inspired, and learn a great deal. My remarks have become a bit long. I will conclude today's session here. Thank you very much.