[Changing Korean Voters] Short Interview with the Author: ⑨ Is Korean Democracy Falling into the Trap of Destructive Polarization?

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9WKMF8dVQw

The East Asia Institute (EAI) is operating the project <Changing Korean Voters>, which studies the 20th presidential election and Korean political reform agenda based on the presidential election panel survey conducted with Korea Research. Following the release of special reports by the research team confirming the current state of public sentiment, we are releasing short interview videos with the authors to present key points for observing the trends in public sentiment changes revealed by this election.

■ Author: Kim Jung_Associate Professor at the Graduate School of North Korean Studies. Ph.D. in Political Science from Yale University. He has served as a visiting professor at Yonsei University's Graduate School of International Studies, a regional coordinator for the Asia Democracy Network, and a policy advisor to the Ministry of National Defense and the Defense Intelligence Agency. He previously worked as a visiting researcher at the University of Tokyo's Graduate School of Interdisciplinary Information Studies, a senior researcher at the East Asia Institute, and a principal researcher at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University. His research interests include comparative political institutions, comparative political economy, inter-Korean relations, and East Asian international relations. He has published articles such as “South Korean Democratization: A Comparative Empirical Appraisal” (2018), “The Legal Production Capacity of a Democratic Constitutional State: The Case of Korea’s Divided Government” (2020), “A Working Parliament, a Talking Parliament, a Confrontational Parliament: Macro-level Consequences and Micro-level Foundations of Parliamentary Distrust” (2020), “Conditions for the Success of COVID-19 Quarantine Policies: A Comparative Study of the Korean Case” (2021), and “Failure of the Constitution, Failure of the Judiciary, Failure of the President: Exercise Leadership to Set the Judiciary Right” (2022).

■ Responsible Editor: Jeon Ju-hyun_EAI Researcher

Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | jhjun@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

While the fierce competition between parties might indicate the robust health of democracy, on the other hand, the intense competition between the two major parties could be a detrimental factor for democracy. Depending on which aspect is emphasized, we aim to present our findings by comparing the 2022 presidential election panel survey, conducted by us, with the 2012 election panel survey. Compared to 2012, we can confirm that in 2022, voters exhibited stronger identification with the two major parties, whether in terms of ideology, policy, or emotion, indicating a more pronounced partisan alignment.

Regarding partisan alignment across these three dimensions, let's first look at ideological alignment. In 2012, progressive voters cast approximately 85% of their votes for candidate Moon Jae-in and about 14% for candidate Park Geun-hye, a difference of about 71 percentage points. By 2022, progressive voters cast 85% of their votes for candidate Lee Jae-myung and 14% for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, a difference of about 71 percentage points. This indicates a slight increase of about 4 percentage points in the inclination of progressive voters towards progressive candidates. Conversely, among conservative voters in 2012, about 20% voted for candidate Moon Jae-in and 78% for candidate Park Geun-hye, resulting in a difference of about 58 percentage points, with conservative voters leaning towards conservative candidates.

In 2022, 17% of conservative voters voted for candidate Lee Jae-myung and 80% for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, a difference of 63 percentage points. Thus, in terms of ideology, both progressive and conservative voters showed an approximately 4% stronger alignment with their respective parties. In this sense, compared to the 2012 election results, partisan alignment in terms of ideology has strengthened in the 2022 election.

Secondly, I would like to discuss partisan alignment in terms of policy. In Korea, voters generally show significant differences in their views on North Korea policy. Therefore, we will examine how conservative and progressive party candidates were voted for by voters who support dovish or conciliatory North Korea policies versus those who support hawkish or hardline North Korea policies. In 2012, among voters who supported dovish North Korea policies, about 57% voted for candidate Moon Jae-in and 42% for candidate Park Geun-hye, a difference of about 15 percentage points.

In the same situation in 2022, 73% of voters supporting dovish North Korea policies voted for candidate Lee Jae-myung, and 24% for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, resulting in a difference of nearly 50 percentage points, an increase of nearly 35 percentage points. Meanwhile, among voters supporting hawkish North Korea policies, about 30% voted for candidate Moon Jae-in in 2012 and 68% for candidate Park Geun-hye, a difference of 38%. In 2022, 17% of voters supporting hawkish North Korea policies voted for candidate Lee Jae-myung and 80% for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, a difference of about 63%. Therefore, a significant increase of about 35 percentage points in the gap indicates a considerable deepening of polarization among voters in terms of policy alignment.

This is the finding we can make. Lastly, regarding partisan alignment in terms of emotion, among voters who felt strongly favorable towards progressive parties, 44% voted for candidate Moon Jae-in in 2012, while 35% voted for candidate Park Geun-hye, with a difference of 9 percentage points. In 2022, among voters who favored progressive parties, 60% voted for Lee Jae-myung, and about 5.7% voted for Yoon Suk-yeol, a difference of 55 percentage points. Therefore, polarization among voters who favor progressive parties has increased by about 15 percentage points compared to 2012. On the other hand, among voters who felt less favorable towards progressive parties, about 23% voted for candidate Moon Jae-in in 2012 and 52% for candidate Park Geun-hye, a difference of about 29 percentage points. In 2022, among voters who felt less favorable towards progressive parties, 14% voted for Lee Jae-myung and 82% for Yoon Suk-yeol, a difference of 68%, indicating polarization has progressed by nearly 40%. Finally, among voters who felt favorable towards conservative parties, 10% voted for candidate Moon Jae-in in 2012 and about 66% for candidate Park Geun-hye, a difference of about 56 percentage points. In 2022, among voters who favored conservative parties, 3.2% voted for Lee Jae-myung and 62.2% for Yoon Suk-yeol, a difference of about 59%, an increase of about 3 percentage points. Among voters who felt less favorable towards conservative parties, 66% voted for candidate Park Geun-hye and 17% for candidate Moon Jae-in in the 2012 election, a difference of about 49 percentage points. In 2022, 83% of voters who felt less favorable towards conservative parties voted for Yoon Suk-yeol and 15% for Lee Jae-myung, a difference of about 68%, an increase of about 19 percentage points. Therefore, regardless of the category, voters who favor progressive parties are increasingly voting for progressive candidates, while those who do not favor them are voting more for conservative candidates, and conversely, those who favor conservative parties are voting more for conservative candidates, while those who do not favor them are voting more for progressive candidates. This indicates a significant strengthening of partisan alignment in terms of emotion.

Therefore, in terms of emotion, the polarization among voters who favor progressive parties has increased by about 15 percentage points compared to 2012. Conversely, among voters who feel less favorable towards progressive parties, about 23% voted for candidate Moon Jae-in in 2012 and 52% for candidate Park Geun-hye, a difference of about 29 percentage points. In 2022, among voters who feel less favorable towards progressive parties, 14% voted for Lee Jae-myung and 82% for Yoon Suk-yeol, a difference of 68%, indicating polarization has progressed by nearly 40%. Finally, among voters who felt favorable towards conservative parties, 10% voted for candidate Moon Jae-in in 2012 and about 66% for candidate Park Geun-hye, a difference of about 56 percentage points. In 2022, among voters who favored conservative parties, 3.2% voted for Lee Jae-myung and 62.2% for Yoon Suk-yeol, a difference of about 59%, an increase of about 3 percentage points. Among voters who felt less favorable towards conservative parties, 66% voted for candidate Park Geun-hye and 17% for candidate Moon Jae-in in the 2012 election, a difference of about 49 percentage points. In 2022, 83% of voters who felt less favorable towards conservative parties voted for Yoon Suk-yeol and 15% for Lee Jae-myung, a difference of about 68%, an increase of about 19 percentage points. Therefore, regardless of the category, voters who favor progressive parties are increasingly voting for progressive candidates, while those who do not favor them are voting more for conservative candidates, and conversely, those who favor conservative parties are voting more for conservative candidates, while those who do not favor them are voting more for progressive candidates. This indicates a significant strengthening of partisan alignment in terms of emotion.

Therefore, regardless of the category, voters who favor progressive parties are increasingly voting for progressive candidates, while those who do not favor them are voting more for conservative candidates, and conversely, those who favor conservative parties are voting more for conservative candidates, while those who do not favor them are voting more for progressive candidates. This indicates a significant strengthening of partisan alignment in terms of emotion.

Therefore, through this analysis, we have confirmed that voters are increasingly identifying with the parties they support and are increasingly distancing themselves from parties they do not support, in terms of ideology, policy, and emotion. This indicates that destructive polarization is progressing.

As of 2021, based on international comparisons, the level of partisan alignment in Korea ranks around 12th among OECD member countries. However, countries with higher levels of voter partisan alignment include countries like Hungary, Poland, Mexico, and Czechia. In these countries, democracy has already significantly regressed, or in some cases, has devolved into authoritarianism. Furthermore, in countries like the United States, democratic regression is occurring. Therefore, in countries with high levels of destructive polarization, there is a high potential for democratic regression rather than progress. In this context, the conservative party, which came to power as a result of the 2022 election, and its president, who is a woman, must fundamentally pursue a more inclusive and unifying approach to governance, prioritizing centripetal forces over centrifugal ones.

By doing so, they can distance themselves from the dangers of destructive polarization that Korea currently faces, and perhaps offer hope for the development of Korean democracy.