[Changing Korean Voters] Short Interview with the Author: ⑧ Did the Presidential Election of the 'Lesser Evil' Mobilize Authoritarian and Populist Voters?

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbMG3-wKXj4

The East Asia Institute (EAI) is operating the project <Changing Korean Voters>, which studies the 20th presidential election and political reform agendas in Korea, based on a presidential election panel survey conducted with Korea Research. Following the release of special reports by the research team confirming the current state of public opinion, we are releasing short interview videos with the authors to present key points of the public sentiment trends revealed by this election.

■ Jeong Dong-jun_He is a professor in the Department of Social Education at Inha University, teaching comparative politics, political processes, and political systems. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science (Comparative Politics) from the University of Florida and worked as a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy, Seoul National University, before joining Inha University. His main research interests include post-communist democratization, elections and parties, and civil society and political attitudes. He has published numerous articles in international and domestic journals, including Comparative Politics, Perspectives on Politics, and Electoral Studies.

■ Managed and Edited by: Jeon Ju-hyun _EAI Researcher

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | jhjun@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

I focused on the authoritarian and populist tendencies of voters that emerged in the 20th presidential election for this project. The reason I focused on these authoritarian tendencies was that, as many have seen in the news, this election was a close race, with the two major candidates exhibiting authoritarian, populist, or extremist styles. Therefore, I felt it was necessary to analyze which voters cast their ballots for such candidates and which voters were mobilized by candidates with these tendencies.

Currently, not only in Korea but also in established democracies worldwide, authoritarianism and populism are becoming increasingly prominent, causing various political problems. Research on authoritarianism and populism has primarily focused on the supply side, such as political parties and elites, commonly referred to as politicians and political parties. That is, studies suggest that authoritarianism and populism are on the rise as populist parties and authoritarian leaders emerge. However, recently, there has been growing interest in which citizens support these authoritarian leaders or populist parties.

Therefore, research is being conducted on authoritarian and populist tendencies at the citizen/voter level. As I felt that authoritarian and populist styles played a significant role in this election, I conducted an analysis to see if these authoritarian and populist tendencies are indeed appearing among voters and how they are connected to their voting choices in this election.

The analysis I conducted was primarily based on simple descriptive statistics. Therefore, I was unable to perform meticulous measurements of authoritarian and populist tendencies based on existing research or conduct statistical analyses such as regression analysis considering various variables. However, within these limitations, I attempted a simple analysis of the extent to which authoritarian and populist tendencies are present among voters and how they relate to voting choices. The simple analysis results indicated that a considerable number of voters with authoritarian and populist tendencies exist in Korea, as revealed by the survey results. A few noteworthy points include: Regarding authoritarian tendencies—which involve the belief that authoritarianism is better than democracy in certain situations—a unique finding was that the proportion was higher among young men, particularly those in their 20s and 30s, compared to other age groups. This aligns with the recent discussions about the conservatism of younger generations, and higher authoritarian tendencies were observed among younger generations. In Korea, authoritarian tendencies are analyzed to be strongly associated with right-wing conservatism. This is not unique to Korea; authoritarianism itself, by definition, involves obedience to authority and adherence to traditional and conservative values, which are deeply connected to the concept of conservatism. Therefore, in this survey, authoritarian tendencies were predominantly found among those with right-wing leanings, and these individuals tended to vote for the conservative party's candidate, Yoon Suk-yeol. Even when controlling for the influence of ideology, voters with higher authoritarian tendencies showed a greater tendency to vote for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol. This appears to be a result of the deep connection between authoritarian tendencies and right-wing conservatism.

In contrast, populism in Korea appears to be more closely related to left-wing progressive ideology than right-wing ideology. Specifically, higher populist tendencies were observed among those who identify as progressive. In this survey, populism was measured by assessing the extent to which individuals agree with the statement that important societal policies should be decided directly by the general public, rather than by the National Assembly or politicians. This yielded the aforementioned results.

In Korea, populism is not strictly confined to the left or right; it can manifest on both sides. However, it appears that progressive discourse has often included elements that could be considered populist, and the progressive party candidate, Lee Jae-myung, also presented various populist policies and pledges. Therefore, in the Korean political context, candidate Yoon Suk-yeol seems to be perceived as more populist than candidate Lee Jae-myung. Consequently, individuals who support the progressive camp and the Democratic Party tended to exhibit populist tendencies and cast more votes for candidate Lee Jae-myung. This indicates a general pattern where authoritarianism and populism were observed, with authoritarianism being more deeply associated with right-wing conservatism and leading to more votes for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, while populism was more associated with left-wing progressivism, leading to more votes for candidate Lee Jae-myung.

The implications of these trends for Korean politics are significant. As authoritarianism and populism increase, political polarization can intensify, and the normative values of democracy can be undermined. This warrants serious attention. The fact that authoritarian tendencies were found to be high among younger generations, particularly those in their 20s and 30s, requires deeper examination. As these young people will shape the future of Korean politics, the high prevalence of authoritarian tendencies among them could pose a potential threat to the future development of democracy in Korea.

Therefore, it is crucial to not only observe authoritarianism and populism from the perspective of political suppliers but also to closely examine the authoritarian and populist tendencies emerging from grassroots movements and citizens. This is the conclusion I can draw.

This is the conclusion I can draw.