Short Interview with the Author: ③ "Innovate the Foreign Affairs and National Security Command Tower (Son Yeol)" [Conditions for a Successful Presidency in 2022]

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jx8yQsgKAg

Ahead of the 20th presidential election scheduled for March 9, 2022, the East Asia Institute (EAI) launched the project <Conditions for a Successful Presidency in 2022>, targeting presidential candidates, their campaign teams, politicians, the media, and influencers. A book was published following the release of working papers. The nine researchers summarize the conditions for success as head of the executive branch, for politics of harmony and coexistence, and for balanced national development and communication as 'decentralization, integration, and coexistence.' We are releasing short interviews with the authors along with the web publication of the working paper series, which aims to present the conditions for the next president's success by analyzing the failures of past presidents.

Chapter 3, "Innovate the Foreign Affairs and National Security Command Tower" – Son Yeol (EAI/Yonsei University)

Read the Working Paper

■ Author:Son Yeol_ Director of EAI, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University. Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago. He has served as Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Head of Underwood International College, Director of the Institute for Sustainable Development, and Director of the Institute for International Studies at Yonsei University. He was also a specially appointed visiting professor at the University of Tokyo and a visiting scholar at the University of North Carolina (Chapel Hill) and the University of California (Berkeley). He served as President of the Korean Political Science Association (2019) and President of the Association for Modern Japanese Studies (2012). He was a Fullbright, MacArthur, and Japan Foundation Fellow, a Senior Fellow at the Waseda University Institute for Advanced Study, and served as an advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, the Northeast Asian History Foundation, and the Korea Foundation. He was also a specialist member of the Committee for Northeast Asian Cooperation. His research areas include Japanese foreign policy, international political economy, East Asian international politics, and public diplomacy. Recent publications include 『Japan and Asia`s Contested Order』 (2019, with T. J. Pempel), Understanding Public Diplomacy in East Asia (2016, with Jan Melissen), “South Korea under US-China Rivalry: the Dynamics of the Economic-Security Nexus in the Trade Policymaking,” (The Pacific Review 2019(32):6), 『South Korea's Choices After the Crisis: Global Financial Crisis, Order Transformation, and South Korea's Economic Diplomacy』(2020), and 『The Global Appeal of BTS』(2020, co-edited).

Video Transcript

Yes, I wrote Chapter 3 of "Conditions for a Successful Presidency in 2022," focusing on foreign affairs and national security. When discussing the conditions for a president's success in foreign affairs and national security, the verification of candidates' foreign affairs and national security pledges during the current presidential election process is very superficial. It seems there's not much interest either. This is not unique to Korea; even looking at the United States, which manages the world, foreign affairs and national security issues, or so-called foreign policy outcomes, rarely determine election outcomes. It seems to be the case in most countries, including China.

However, in the case of South Korea, our lives are heavily defined by external conditions, aren't they? We are directly influenced by the trends in international politics and the global economy, with no buffer. Therefore, it is only natural that a president should possess considerable qualifications, competence, and knowledge in foreign affairs and national security. In many cases, presidential elections are dominated by domestic issues, and presidential candidates express neither deep thought nor awareness regarding foreign affairs and national security issues. Yet, once elected president, they reportedly express surprise that nearly 40-50% of their work involves foreign affairs and national security. Therefore, preparation in the area of foreign affairs and national security is crucial, and in that sense, foreign affairs and national security issues are not necessarily election-winning conditions, but they are very important factors for a president's success, especially for a Korean president. That's why I wrote this chapter. The president who takes office next year will face a very grave situation in terms of foreign affairs, national security, and international affairs. In fact, this was said five years ago and ten years ago as well. Nevertheless, the president in 2022 will face significant challenges in international affairs. I can mention four points. The first is how South Korea should navigate the competition between the US and China, or the US-China rivalry. Traditionally, we have spoken of the ROK-US alliance and ROK-China cooperation, but now the US-China rivalry framework dictates discussions on ROK-US and ROK-China relations. The US-China competition structure has become a crucial variable for South Korea.

This is a significant change from five years ago. While the previous administration also discussed US-China relations, the regulatory power of US-China relations today, and as we will face it next year, is qualitatively different. That's one major change. The second is the North Korean nuclear issue. Over the past five years, the current administration made considerable efforts to ease inter-Korean tensions, and there were indeed periods of peace. However, as a result, North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities have significantly advanced over the past five years.

It is now said that North Korea possesses 20 to 30 nuclear warheads, and if this trend continues, it could possess nearly 100 warheads within the next decade. Therefore, the president taking office next year will feel the weight of the North Korean nuclear issue considerably more than in the past five years. That is a significant change. The third challenge is ROK-Japan relations. ROK-Japan relations were already poor five years ago, but they are now at an all-time low. If the next administration cannot resolve the current issues between the two countries within the first year of its term, it will be preoccupied with ROK-Japan relations for its entire five-year term, just like the current administration. Thus, the next administration faces the urgent task of overcoming the severe breakdown in ROK-Japan relations.

Finally, there are emerging issues or threats that undermine trust. These include climate change and environmental issues, pandemic response, and the international political economy and diplomacy related to advanced technologies. When discussing a government's foreign policy, these issues have always been mentioned as secondary concerns, alongside North Korea and relations with major powers. However, among the challenges facing the new government next year, these emerging issues pose a significant threat.

EAI conducted a public opinion poll last month asking citizens about the biggest challenge the next government will face over the next five years. The top response was pandemic crises, followed by climate change and environmental issues. These are threats that people are keenly aware of, and there is a public desire for the government to address and resolve these issues as foreign policy matters. Therefore, these emerging issues are no longer mere secondary concerns; they present significant challenges that Korean diplomacy must tackle. I hope the public will recognize that foreign affairs and national security issues are one of the crucial elements for a president to be considered successful after five years in office, even during the campaign period.

This is how important these issues are. This is not an abstract discussion; it is directly related to our lives. Real estate, economic issues, and jobs are important, but foreign affairs and national security issues also have a significant impact on our lives. Therefore, I hope that presidents will diligently study these issues, refine their perspectives from the campaign stage, and implement policies effectively once elected. That is my hope.

This is not just a conceptual matter; it is an issue directly linked to our lives. While real estate, economic issues, and jobs are important, foreign affairs and national security issues also profoundly impact our lives. Therefore, I hope that presidents will diligently study these issues, refine their perspectives from the campaign stage, and implement policies effectively once elected.