[EAI Public Opinion Briefing] Analysis of the 2025 EAI East Asia Perception Survey Results

Analysis of the 2025 EAI East Asia Perception Survey Results

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I. General Perceptions of External Affairs

Top Threat Perception Shifts from 'Climate/North Korean Nuclear' to 'US-China Competition'

● When asked about the top two most significant threats facing Korea, "US-China strategic competition and conflict" was cited by 64.9%, and "spread of protectionism and high-tech competition" by 59.8%, ranking first and second, respectively. These figures represent an increase of 22.4%p and 20.1%p compared to the same question asked last year.

● Meanwhile, "Climate change and environmental issues," which ranked first in last year's survey, dropped to fourth place, and "North Korea's nuclear and missile threat," which was second, fell to third place. This reversal in the ranking of top threat perceptions can be seen as a result of the public's experience with changes such as trade pressure and tariff impositions following the inauguration of a second Trump administration.

● When asked about the most important diplomatic relations for Korea (up to two choices), ROK-US relations ranked overwhelmingly first, increasing by 15.6%p compared to the previous year (75.1% → 90.7%). The proportion of respondents who considered ROK-China relations important also increased compared to the previous year, while the number of respondents citing inter-Korean relations and ROK-Japan relations decreased.

● The countries posing a military threat to Korea (multiple responses allowed) were, in order, North Korea (90.0%), China (70.5%), Russia (40.7%), and Japan (30.1%), consistent with the previous year. However, the proportion of respondents citing North Korea and China showed a slight increase, while those citing Russia and Japan showed a slight decrease.

II. Perceptions of the United States and ROK-US Relations

Increase in Responses Stating "ROK-US Relations are Bad" and "The US is Not a Trustworthy Partner"

● 77.5% of respondents reported having a "favorable" or "generally favorable" impression of the United States.

● Reasons for a favorable impression included "The US role in maintaining international order" (48.2%) and "Economic opportunities in the US market" (47.0%) (up to two choices). Conversely, the primary reason for an unfavorable impression was "Coercive attitude in trade, tariffs, etc.," cited by 79.9% of respondents (up to two choices).

● Regarding President Trump, 75.5% of respondents expressed a negative impression, a stark contrast to the previous year's survey where only 17.1% held a negative impression of President Biden.

● When asked about the current state of ROK-US relations, 53.0% responded "average," constituting a majority. However, the proportion of respondents who stated "bad" was 33.9%, an increase of 19.0%p from the previous year (14.9%).

● When asked whether the US is a trustworthy partner for Korea, "trustworthy" was cited by 68.4%, more than double the rate of "not trustworthy" (28.6%). However, the "trustworthy" response decreased by 4.7%p from the previous year (73.1%), while "not trustworthy" increased by 10.4%p from the previous year (18.2%).

● In the event of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait and US intervention, the most frequently cited level of response for Korea was "humanitarian aid" (49.3%). Regarding the primary role of US Forces Korea, a significant portion of respondents believed they should remain within Korea, citing "rear support within the Korean Peninsula" (42.3%) and "focusing on deterring North Korea and defending South Korea" (29.5%).

III. Perceptions of Japan and ROK-Japan Relations

63.3% Have a "Favorable Impression of Japan"... "Unfavorable Impression" Surpassed for the First Time

● 63.3% of respondents reported having a "favorable" or "generally favorable" impression of Japan, a sharp increase of 21.6%p from the previous year (41.7%). This is the highest figure since the survey began in 2013, and for the first time, it surpasses the percentage of respondents with an "unfavorable" or "generally unfavorable" impression (30.6%).

● Reasons for a favorable impression included factors related to visits to Japan and interactions with Japanese people, such as "Kind and diligent national character" (48.6%) and "Attractive food culture and shopping" (31.2%) (up to two choices). Conversely, reasons for an unfavorable impression primarily related to historical and territorial issues, such as "Failure to properly reflect on its history of invading Korea" (81.8%), "Dokdo issue" (46.4%), and "Unresolved historical issues such as comfort women and forced labor" (34.2%) (up to two choices).

● When asked about the current state of ROK-Japan relations, 56.3% responded "average," constituting a majority. However, the proportion of respondents who stated "bad" was 30.7%, a decrease of 6.4%p from the previous year (37.1%).

● The goals for ROK-Japan relations, marking the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties, were cited as "Resolving bilateral historical issues" (52.6%) and "Restoring mutual trust" (48.7%), ranking first and second respectively, as in the previous year (up to two choices).

● The Korean government's responses to issues such as the third-party compensation plan for resolving the forced mobilization issue and the inscription of Sado Mine on the UNESCO World Heritage list showed an increasing trend of positive evaluations compared to the previous year.

IV. Perceptions of China and ROK-China Relations

"Unlikable National Character and Behavior" vs. "Economic Opportunities in a Huge Market"

● 66.3% of respondents had a "bad impression" or "generally bad impression" of China, more than double the respondents who had a "good impression" or "generally good impression" (25.6%). Compared to last year, both negative and positive impressions slightly increased as the "neither" response decreased.

● The reason for a bad impression was "because of the people's character and behavior" at 58.1%, overwhelmingly surpassing other factors such as the single-party rule system, economic coercion, and retaliation (up to the 2nd priority). The reason for a good impression was "because of the great economic opportunities as a huge market" at 70.8%, overwhelmingly surpassing continuous economic growth, culture, and tradition (up to the 2nd priority).

● When asked about the current Korea-China relations, 54.0% evaluated them as "bad," which is a majority, but this decreased by 6.1 percentage points compared to the previous year (60.1%). The response that Korea-China relations are important was 88.4%, indicating that public opinion recognizing the importance of Korea-China relations has continued for the past three years, separate from negative public perception.

● Concerns regarding recent Chinese trends were, in order, "conflict with the United States" (26.8%), "coercive diplomatic behavior towards South Korea" (19.5%), and "passive attitude towards North Korean provocations or the North Korean nuclear issue" (16.0%) (single choice). In particular, "conflict with the United States" increased by 9.7 percentage points compared to the previous year (17.1%), showing a consistent perception with survey results identifying the US-China conflict as the greatest threat factor.

● A majority of respondents indicated that China has a role in responding to North Korea's military provocations (84.1%) and that China's influence is important in the denuclearization process of North Korea (88.3%), indicating public opinion demanding China's contribution to the North Korean issue.

V. Perceptions of North Korea and Inter-Korean Relations

Divergent Opinions on "Sufficient US Extended Deterrence"... 75.1% Agree on Nuclear Armament

● When asked about the current state of inter-Korean relations, 76.3% of respondents answered "very bad" or "somewhat bad." This figure decreased by 6.9 percentage points compared to 83.2% in last year's survey. Meanwhile, the response of "neutral" increased by 5.7 percentage points from 15.5% to 21.2% during the same period.

● Regarding the outlook for inter-Korean relations in 10 years, the response that "an unstable situation will be maintained" was the highest at 39.3%, continuing from last year. The response that "inter-Korean relations will improve" increased by 8.7 percentage points from 22.5% to 31.2%.

● When asked whether the US extended deterrence (nuclear umbrella) provided in response to North Korea's nuclear threat is sufficient, 52.6% disagreed, while 41.8% agreed. The gap between the two widened to 10.8 percentage points compared to the previous year (6.2 percentage points).

● 75.1% agreed that South Korea should pursue nuclear armament if North Korea does not abandon its nuclear weapons, which is more than three times the percentage of those who disagreed (19.9%).

● Regarding the future direction of North Korea-Russia relations, a majority of respondents (59.4%) predicted that "North Korea will become equally close to both Russia and China."

VI. New Administration's Foreign Policy and Relations

The Top Priority is "Strengthening Economic Diplomacy"... Majority Expect "Improvement in Korea-China and Inter-Korean Relations"

● When asked about the top two priority foreign policy tasks for the new administration, 49.8% of respondents chose "Strengthening Economic Diplomacy," the highest response, as in 2021. "Efforts to Unify Divided National Opinion" rose to second place with 41.0%, more than double the 19.7% recorded in 2021. This was followed by "Strengthening the ROK-U.S. Alliance" (34.3%) and "Responding to U.S.-China Competition and Friction" (28.5%).

● Meanwhile, only 8.0% of respondents selected "Strengthening Diplomacy on Infectious Diseases, Climate Change, and the Environment" within their top two priorities, a significant decrease from 33.6% in 2021.

● When asked about the priority foreign policy issues for major countries, the top responses were "Strengthening the ROK-U.S. Alliance" (36.6%) for the United States, "Promoting Future-Oriented Cooperation in Economic, Technological, Security, and Environmental Fields" (49.6%) for Japan, and "Expanding Economic Exchange and Advanced Technology Cooperation" (33.9%) for China.

● Following the launch of the new administration, 68.4% of respondents believed that ROK-China relations would improve, and 62.6% believed that inter-Korean relations would improve, both exceeding a majority. For ROK-U.S. relations, 49.9% responded that they would improve, while 26.5% responded that they would worsen. For ROK-Japan relations, 31.9% responded that they would improve, and 41.5% responded that they would worsen, making it the only one among the four major countries where the outlook for worsening relations was stronger than the outlook for improvement.

● When asked about agreement on the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's foreign policy tenets, such as strengthening the U.S. extended deterrence, enhancing ROK-U.S.-Japan security cooperation, and principled and proportional responses to North Korean provocations, the response of agreement for all three tenets surpassed disagreement, but did not reach a majority. ■

■ Responsible for and Edited by: Park Han-soo_EAI Research Fellow

Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) hspark@eai.or.kr