[EAI Public Opinion Briefing] Analysis of the 2025 Presidential Election Results

I. The 21st Presidential Election and Perceptions of Policy Priorities

● The 21st Presidential Election can be characterized as a polarized election. Despite the potential for division within the conservative camp due to the state of emergency and impeachment, concerns over extreme political conflict in Korean politics, the emergence of discussions on institutional reforms such as constitutional amendment, internal discord during the ruling party's primary, and the possibility of a third party's breakthrough, the election results demonstrated the entrenched polarization of Korean politics through the mobilization of the progressive and conservative camps.

● South Korea is in a state of emotional division between its two major parties. While ideologically, a majority (37.6%) falls into the moderate category, the political landscape is dominated by intense political debates between small, hardline conservative and hardline progressive groups, fueled by mutual animosity. This presidential election was also marked by a competition of extreme dislike between the two candidates/groups, with policy taking a backseat. Consequently, the moderate segment has been divided between the two sides.

● Post-presidential election, Korean politics is highly likely to revert to a polarized confrontation. A majority of the public anticipates this (67.8% agreed with the statement 'Will political conflict intensify in one year?'). While the president's pragmatism—negotiation, compromise, integration, and concrete problem-solving—is important, a serious approach to political reform is also necessary to address polarization.

● Among respondents who voted for candidate Lee Jae-myung in the 20th presidential election, 92.2% supported him again in this election, while 3.6% shifted their support to candidate Kim Moon-soo. Meanwhile, among those who supported candidate Yoon Suk-yeol in the last election, 75.5% chose candidate Kim Moon-soo in this election, 11.9% supported candidate Lee Jae-myung, and 8.3% opted for Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party. While the mobilization of progressives was relatively strong, some outflow was observed within the conservative camp.

● Respondents who voted for candidate Lee Jae-myung cited 'candidate's ability and experience' (63.5%) and 'pledges' (8.9%) as primary reasons. In contrast, 43.6% of respondents who voted for candidate Kim Moon-soo cited 'moral integrity' and 20.5% cited 'ability and experience' as their voting reasons. Regarding issues that influenced their decision, 68.4% of Lee Jae-myung voters pointed to 'former President Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of a state of emergency and impeachment process,' while 68.5% of Kim Moon-soo voters selected 'candidate Lee Jae-myung's moral controversy and legal risks.'

● As the most urgent national task for the next government, 42.5% of respondents chose 'economic issues such as job creation, price stabilization, and economic growth.' 'Political issues related to political parties, elections, and the National Assembly, including constitutional amendment' (10.7%) and 'demographic issues such as low birth rates and population decline' (8.5%) followed.

II. Political Attitudes

● A total of 60.6% of respondents answered that politicians or public officials do not pay attention to the opinions of people like themselves. This perception was particularly high among conservatives (69.3%), a higher rate than among progressives (56.6%) and moderates (54.7%). Notably, 62.8% of conservatives responded that they are well-informed about important political issues in our society. This is similar to the level among progressives (62.9%) and higher than among moderates (42.8%).

● Supporters of candidate Lee Jae-myung showed an average favorability rating of 7.8 towards Lee, while supporters of candidate Kim Moon-soo rated him an average of 1.87. Conversely, favorability towards candidate Kim Moon-soo among Lee's supporters was an average of 2.43, and among Kim's supporters, it was 7.4.

● When asked whether they would continue to support their current party in the future, 96.6% of Democratic Party supporters and 85.6% of People Power Party supporters stated they would continue to support their respective parties. In contrast, regarding the opposing party, 86.1% of Democratic Party supporters and 84.3% of People Power Party supporters responded that the other party is 'not a party worth supporting in the future,' revealing strong animosity between the parties.

III. Perceptions of the Political Situation

● Regarding former President Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of a state of emergency, 71.6% of respondents evaluated it as an anti-constitutional and illegal act that violates the principles of democracy. By ideological orientation, 93.4% of progressives and 72.8% of moderates held this view. Among conservatives, a majority (51.9%) also responded that it was anti-constitutional, while 37.5% evaluated it as a legitimate exercise of constitutional authority. Only 3.3% of progressives and 7.6% of conservatives viewed the declaration of a state of emergency as a 'legitimate exercise of authority.' In contrast, regarding the Constitutional Court's impeachment decision, 44.9% of conservatives responded it was a 'wrong decision,' while only 5.0% of progressives and 12.7% of moderates held the same view. Conversely, the response 'a good decision' was overwhelmingly high among progressives at 91.6%, with 64.8% of moderates agreeing. Among conservatives, 41.5% evaluated it as a 'good decision.'

● Regarding the responsibility for the December 3rd attempt to impose a state of emergency and the presidential impeachment, 50.5% of respondents attributed responsibility to the then-ruling People Power Party, 20.0% to the then-opposition Democratic Party, and 25.7% believed both parties were responsible. 81.0% of Democratic Party supporters held the People Power Party responsible, while 12.2% believed both parties were responsible. Conversely, 52.0% of People Power Party supporters attributed responsibility to the then-opposition Democratic Party, and 31.7% responded that both parties were responsible. The proportion attributing responsibility to the People Power Party was only 15.0%.

● Regarding the ruling party's (People Power Party) response during the impeachment process of President Yoon Suk-yeol, 57% of all respondents answered, 'As the ruling party, they should have reflected on their mistakes and actively accepted the impeachment.' Notably, 91.4% of Democratic Party supporters agreed with this, while the agreement rate among People Power Party supporters was only 33.1%. In fact, a majority of People Power Party supporters (50.4%) responded, 'The ruling party should have more actively opposed the impeachment and protected the president,' clearly revealing a difference in perception between party supporters.

IV. Perceptions of the Political Situation

● When asked about the fairness of the election management committee and the courts during the election process, 62.7% and 50.8% of all respondents, respectively, answered that they were 'fair' (either 'generally fair' or 'very fair'). Conservative respondents evaluated both institutions as 'unfair,' with the proportion responding as such for the election management committee being 55.0% and for the courts being 56.9%, both exceeding a majority. In contrast, among progressive respondents, the proportion who found the election management committee unfair was 8.6%, and for the courts, it was 33.4%, which were relatively low.

● Regarding the fairness of the candidate nomination process, 39.8% of all respondents answered, 'It was unfair.' Particularly among conservatives, a majority (53.5%) responded that it was unfair, a significantly higher figure than among progressives (32.0%) or moderates (31.7%).

● When asked if there was 'election fraud' or 'election manipulation' in this presidential election, 29% of all respondents answered 'Yes.' By ideological orientation, 44.4% of conservatives, 30.1% of moderates, and 9.9% of progressives responded that election fraud had occurred.

● When asked if democracy in our country is functioning well, 34.7% of all respondents answered 'No.' By ideological orientation, 19.2% of progressives and 30.1% of moderates evaluated it negatively, while a majority of conservatives (52.1%) answered that democracy is not functioning properly, showing a clear difference in perception between ideologies.

■ Managed and Edited by: Song Chaerin_EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 211) | crsong@eai.or.kr