[2024 Japan Election Issue Briefing] Introduction: Voters Desire Change, but the LDP and Opposition Parties Remain Unchanged

In the Japanese House of Representatives election (general election) held on October 27, the LDP-Komeito coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba suffered a crushing defeat. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured 191 seats and Komeito secured 24 seats, for a total of 215 seats, failing to achieve the target of a majority (233 seats). In contrast, the opposition parties, including independents, won 250 seats. If they were to unite, a change in government would be possible. The LDP lost 56 seats compared to its pre-dissolution parliamentary strength, while the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan gained 50 seats to reach 148 seats. Minor opposition parties also generally increased their seat count.

In fact, this election was considerably challenging for the ruling LDP (and its coalition partner Komeito). Firstly, the election was held at a time when public distrust in the government had reached its peak due to a political funding scandal within the LDP. The LDP faced the task of responding to the public's desire for political reform. The problem was that the Abe faction, the center of LDP politics and the largest faction within the party, was at the heart of the slush fund scandal, necessitating comprehensive reform of the party. The fact that the party leadership used the term 'renewal' instead of 'reform' can be seen as reflecting the LDP's dilemma.

Secondly, this election, much like the US election, was an 'inflation election.' In 2020, the global economy faced a phase of sharp supply contraction due to supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. On the demand side, consumption slumped due to lockdowns and reduced economic activity. Subsequently, while the supply side recovered with the restoration and readjustment of supply chains, massive economic stimulus measures to boost demand led to price increases, causing major countries, including Japan, to grapple with inflation without exception. According to pre-election opinion polls, Japanese voters cited 'economic and price measures' as their top priority when voting. Therefore, the LDP needed to demonstrate a proactive stance in the fight against inflation.

The Japanese public is demanding change, but the LDP has not changed, and neither have the opposition parties. The LDP has offered a superficial response to the political funding issue, which has become a manifestation of its long-term rule, while the opposition, despite having a golden opportunity, chose division over unity and cooperation. Voters punished the LDP, but they did not endorse the opposition (Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan), which is deemed untrustworthy to hold power.

Then, why was the ruling LDP unable to respond to the public's desire for political reform during this election process? Why did the new Prime Minister Ishiba, a minority leader within the party and distant from the political funding scandal, fail to demonstrate a commitment to renewal? What structural factors contributed to the LDP's failure? Meanwhile, why were the opposition parties unable to translate public discontent with the LDP into a change of government? Why are the opposition parties divided? What are the problems with the LDP administration's inflation and livelihood stabilization policies? Did Prime Minister Ishiba demonstrate a vision, capability, or support base that differentiated him from former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's economic policies?

In response to these questions, Professor Lee Ju-kyung's article demonstrates that the structural characteristics of the so-called 'Abe era,' in terms of the LDP's one-party dominance system, the factional dominance of the Abe faction within the party, and the LDP's governing capacity, have transformed and led to the current outcome. Professor Kim Sung-jo's article analyzes the relationship between the LDP's crisis and political funding issues from a historical perspective to explain the election results. Finally, Professor Lee Jeong-hwan's article analyzes the Japanese voters' political and economic dissatisfaction, the problems with Prime Minister Ishiba's response, and the future direction of Japan's economic policy. ■

■ Son Yeol_President, East Asia Institute; Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University.

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Han-soo_EAI Researcher

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