[ADRN Issue Brief] Analysis of the 2024 Indian General Election

Introduction

The 2024 Indian parliamentary election is anticipated to be the largest election in the world. This massive event, involving 986 million voters and over 600 political parties, will commence on April 19 and continue for 44 days until the results are announced on June 4. It is also expected to be the most expensive election globally, surpassing that of the United States (Pradhan 2024). Notably, almost the entire process of this grand event will be conducted using Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). Approximately 5.5 million EVMs will be deployed over two months for this election.Business Standard 2024-03-16). This general election will constitute the lower house of Parliament (Lok Sabha), and the party or coalition that secures a majority in the Lok Sabha will nominate the Prime Minister and govern for the next five years.

Current State of the Election Campaign

The incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming for a third consecutive term. Modi led the BJP to a significant victory in the 2014 election, breaking away from decades of coalition governments. In the 2019 election, the BJP secured 303 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, with its alliance winning 352 seats. For this election, he is highlighting achievements such as strengthening the government's economic growth, fulfilling welfare promises, and reducing poverty rates (PIB 2024). His main slogan is the “Viksit Bharat (Developed India)” plan, aiming to make India a developed nation by 2047. The BJP currently governs 12 state governments, having won three key states in recent regional elections, and participates in coalition governments in four other states. This provides the ruling party with a significant advantage over the opposition.Al Jazeera 2023-12-05). More importantly, Prime Minister Modi continues to enjoy high popularity among voters even after two terms, leaving little room for the opposition to compete (Mogul 2024).

The main challenge to Prime Minister Modi and the ruling party comes from an opposition alliance comprising over twenty parties. The principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), is leading a coalition of parties named INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). Many parties that have faced political persecution from the government have resolved to cooperate against the overwhelming power of the BJP. However, the INDIA alliance has struggled since its formation on July 18, 2023, with key party leaders defecting. Unlike the ruling party, which has secured substantial financial resources and organizational strength, the opposition alliance faces difficulties in raising funds and ensuring consistency among the campaigns of its constituent parties. This disparity makes the upcoming election resemble a battle between David and Goliath.

Key Issues in the Election Campaign

The primary issues and demands raised by voters leading up to the election include income stagnation, price increases, job shortages, corruption, the spread of misinformation, and deepening inequality.

Unemployment and Inflation

India is currently experiencing rising unemployment and high inflation. A recent opinion poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Society (CSDS) revealed that unemployment and inflation are the biggest grievances for the majority of voters (The Hindu 2024-04-11). Although the Indian economy has grown at a remarkable pace in recent years, it has not generated sufficient employment opportunities. A report released this year by the International Labour Organization (ILO) indicates a bleak employment outlook for India in the future (ILO 2024). According to the report, youth unemployment accounted for 82.9% of the total unemployed in 2022. The proportion of educated youth among the unemployed has nearly doubled over two decades, from 35.2% to 65.7%. Consequently, political parties are making competitive promises regarding job creation. The Indian National Congress has pledged to guarantee an annual salary of ₹100,000 (approximately 1.65 million KRW) for apprentices under 25 years of age with degrees and to fill three million positions in the central government. In response, the BJP has promised to create millions of youth employment opportunities and introduce new schemes for women's employment (Kumar 2024).The Hindu 2024-04-11). India's economy has grown at a remarkable pace in recent years, but it has not been creating many jobs. A report released this year by the International Labour Organization (ILO) indicated a bleak employment outlook for India in the future (ILO 2024). According to the report, young people accounted for 82.9% of the total unemployed in 2022. Among the unemployed, the proportion of youth with secondary education has nearly doubled over two decades, from 35.2% to 65.7%. Naturally, political parties are making competing promises on job creation. The Indian National Congress has promised to guarantee an annual stipend of ₹100,000 (approximately 1.65 million won) for apprentices under 25 years of age with a degree and to fill 3 million government jobs. In response, the Bharatiya Janata Party has pledged to create millions of youth jobs and introduce new schemes for women's employment (Kumar 2024).

Welfare Populism

A major factor contributing to Prime Minister Modi's consecutive victories has been the extensive welfare benefits provided to the public by his government. The provision of gas and electricity, sanitation facilities, and new welfare schemes through Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) have enabled the government to secure a solid support base. For instance, recent surveys, such as the National Family Health Survey 2019-2021, indicate a significant increase in household infrastructure and services like electricity, gas, and toilets (Vaishnav 2023). Furthermore, Modi's recently announced ruling party manifesto doubles the scope of welfare schemes (Hindustan Times 2024-04-14). The BJP's election manifesto includes various welfare programs. The opposition, including the INC, has also promised diverse welfare schemes to attract voters. The INC, in its recently released 46-page manifesto, has pledged universal healthcare, free education up to 12th grade, and employment schemes for the urban poor. Regional parties have also announced various welfare programs, such as free food and education, to attract voters. In essence, as each party formulates its electoral strategy based on competitive populism, a flood of promises for free benefits and welfare programs is emerging.Hindustan Times 2024-04-14). The election manifesto of the Bharatiya Janata Party includes various welfare schemes. The opposition, including the Indian National Congress, has also promised various welfare schemes to woo voters. The Indian National Congress, which recently released its 46-page manifesto, has promised universal healthcare, free education up to 12th grade, and employment schemes for the urban poor. Regional parties have also announced various welfare schemes, including free food and education, to attract voters. In short, as each party formulates its election strategy based on competitive populism, a flood of promises for freebies and welfare schemes is emerging.

Misinformation and Electoral Integrity

Another prominent issue in the Indian general election is the sharp increase in fake news, misinformation, and disinformation that severely distorts voter choices. While fake news and disinformation emerged as significant problems in the 2019 election, the rapid advancement of technologies such as artificial intelligence and deepfakes is expected to greatly amplify the scale and severity of issues arising during the 2024 election process. India is currently considered a global hub for disinformation (Sahoo 2024), and with improved internet accessibility and increased use of affordable internet data, the 2024 election is anticipated to present significant challenges in terms of disinformation and electoral integrity. As most parties and candidates actively utilize digital and social media for their campaigns, the Election Commission of India has issued guidelines and warnings to political parties and technology platform companies, urging them to curb the spread of misinformation and disinformation (The Hindu 2024-03-20). Attention is focused on how public institutions, including the Election Commission, will manage disinformation and hate speech during the election period to ensure free and fair elections.The Hindu 2024-03-20). It remains to be seen how public institutions, including the Election Commission, will manage misinformation and hate speech during the election period to ensure free and fair elections.

A Fair Contest for All?

The advantages enjoyed by the ruling party (party organization, financial resources, favorable institutional framework, etc.) and the lack of fair competition for opposition forces are another key issue in the 2024 general election (Punwani 2023; Financial Times 2024-04-16). With the ruling party mobilizing all state institutions to target and exclude major opposition forces and their leaders, concerns about the fairness of the electoral process are growing in Western countries, including Germany and the United States (The Hindu 2024-03-27). Since the Modi government came to power in 2014, investigative agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate (ED), tax authorities, and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) have been weaponized for political purposes, targeting key opposition leaders. According to one investigative report, the ED alone has interrogated, raided, or arrested 130 political leaders, 115 of whom (95%) were opposition leaders (Tiwary 2022). The arrest of chief ministers of states like Delhi and Jharkhand by the ED during the election campaign on unproven charges is particularly concerning.Financial Times 2024-04-16). Concerns are growing in Western countries, including Germany and the United States, about the fairness of the electoral process, as the ruling party mobilizes all state institutions to target and exclude key opposition forces and their leadership (The Hindu 2024-03-27). Since the Modi government came to power in 2014, investigative agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate (ED), tax authorities, and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) have been turned into political weapons targeting key opposition leaders. According to one investigative report, the Enforcement Directorate has interrogated, raided, or arrested 130 political leaders independently, of whom 115 (95%) were opposition leaders (Tiwary 2022). In particular, the arrest of chief ministers of states like Delhi and Jharkhand by the Enforcement Directorate during the election period on unproven charges has raised significant concerns.

Even the financial authorities froze assets worth ₹1 billion (approximately 16.5 billion KRW) from the accounts of the Indian National Congress. Even if there were grounds, freezing a political party's funds during an election campaign has a significant impact on its ability to conduct its campaign and counter the dominant ruling party. Many opposition parties, including the INC, are facing financial crises. In contrast, the ruling party has ample cash and significant institutional and organizational advantages over the opposition. Furthermore, the ruling party is employing every means to deprive opposition forces of a fair opportunity in the election. The ruling party is orchestrating defections in opposition-ruled states, luring away key leaders, and sometimes even toppling state governments. The selective intervention of state agencies, such as the ED and CBI, has facilitated these maneuvers (Tiwary 2022).

In summary, with the Modi government employing various tactics to hinder the competitive opportunities of opposition forces, recent Indian elections are considered one-sided contests (Ellis-Petersen 2024). The INDIA alliance's launch of the "Save Democracy" movement is an extension of this context.

Predictable Outcome?

Predicting election outcomes in a complex political system like India's is perilous, but the results of this election appear predictable. All pre-election opinion polls predicted a comfortable victory for Prime Minister Modi and the ruling party. Driven by Modi's personal popularity, the BJP-led alliance is expected to sweep all regions except the south. According to the largest opinion poll conducted by India Today (India Today 2024), the ruling alliance is projected to secure 335 seats, while the opposition alliance is expected to win 160 seats (Bhattacharya 2024). However, considering the divisions within the opposition alliance and Prime Minister Modi's sustained high approval ratings, the BJP is anticipating an even more decisive victory, potentially securing over 400 seats in the Lok Sabha.India Today) a large-scale opinion poll conducted by indicated that the ruling coalition is expected to win 335 seats and the opposition coalition 160 seats (Bhattacharya 2024). However, considering the divisions within the opposition coalition and Prime Minister Modi's sustained high approval ratings, the Bharatiya Janata Party is anticipating a landslide victory, aiming for more than 400 seats out of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha.

Despite the apparent certainty of victory, the ruling party remains cautious, closely monitoring political shifts during the campaign period and relatively low support in the southern and eastern regions. The ruling party is employing an aggressive strategy, using all means to appease prominent opposition leaders and neutralize opposition campaigns, while also recruiting social media influencers, celebrities, and prominent media personalities (NDTV 2024).NDTV 2024).

Conclusion

India's elections, held every five years, involve nearly a billion voters, with increasing participation from women and minority groups. India thus serves as a success story of democratization in a low-income country with a diverse ethnic composition, and its electoral process garners global attention. However, with the recent erosion of fair competition between parties and the weakening of democratic institutions, India's democracy appears to be heading into uncharted territory. If the right-wing BJP achieves another landslide victory against a weak and divided opposition, India will move closer to the risks of illiberalism and democratic backsliding. ■

References

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■ Niranjan SahooSenior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, India.

■ Responsible for and edited by: Park Han-sooResearch Fellow, EAI

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