[ADRN Issue Briefing] Analysis of the 2024 Indian General Election

Introduction

India's 2024 parliamentary elections are expected to be the largest in the world. This massive event, involving 986 million voters and over 600 political parties, will begin on April 19 and continue for 44 days until the results are announced on June 4. It is also expected to be the most expensive election in the world, surpassing that of the United States (Pradhan 2024). Notably, almost the entire process of this massive event will be conducted using Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). Approximately 5.5 million EVMs will be deployed over two months for this election (Business Standard 2024-03-16). Through these general elections, the lower house of parliament (Lok Sabha) will be constituted, and the party or coalition that secures a majority in the Lok Sabha will nominate the Prime Minister and govern for the next five years.

Current State of the Election Campaign

The incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming for a third consecutive term. Modi led the BJP to a landslide victory in the 2014 election, breaking away from decades of coalition governments. In the 2019 election, the BJP secured 303 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, and the ruling coalition won 352 seats. In this election, he is highlighting achievements such as strengthening the economy, fulfilling welfare promises, and reducing poverty rates (PIB 2024). His main slogan is the "Viksit Bharat (Developed India)" plan, aiming to make India a developed country by 2047. The BJP currently governs in 12 state governments, having won three key states in recent state-level elections, and participates in coalition governments in four other states. This gives the ruling party an overwhelming advantage over the opposition (Al Jazeera 2023-12-05). More importantly, Prime Minister Modi continues to enjoy high popularity among voters even after two terms, leaving little room for the opposition to compete (Mogul 2024).

The main challenge to Prime Minister Modi and the ruling party comes from an opposition coalition comprising over 20 political parties. The principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), is leading a coalition of parties named INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). Many parties that have faced political persecution from the government have resolved to cooperate against the overwhelming power of the BJP. However, the INDIA alliance has been struggling since its formation on July 18, 2023, with key party leaders defecting. Unlike the ruling party, which has secured substantial financial resources and organizational strength, the opposition alliance faces difficulties in securing funding and ensuring consistency among the campaigns of its constituent parties. This disparity makes the current election resemble a battle between David and Goliath.

Key Issues in the Election Campaign

The main issues and demands raised by voters ahead of the election concern income stagnation, rising prices, lack of jobs, corruption, the spread of misinformation, and deepening inequality.

Unemployment and Inflation

India is currently experiencing rising unemployment and high inflation. A recent opinion poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Society (CSDS) revealed that unemployment and inflation are the biggest grievances for most voters (The Hindu 2024-04-11). Although the Indian economy has been growing at a remarkable pace in recent years, it has not been creating many jobs. A report released this year by the International Labour Organization (ILO) indicated a bleak employment outlook for India in the future (ILO 2024). According to the report, young people accounted for 82.9% of the total unemployed in 2022. Among the unemployed, the proportion of young people with secondary education nearly doubled over 20 years, from 35.2% to 65.7%. Consequently, political parties are making competitive promises regarding job creation. The Indian National Congress has pledged to guarantee an annual salary of 100,000 rupees (approximately 1.65 million yen) for apprentices under 25 with degrees and to fill 3 million vacant positions in the central government. In response, the BJP has promised to create millions of youth employment opportunities and introduce new schemes for women's employment (Kumar 2024).

Welfare Populism

A key factor behind Prime Minister Modi's successive victories has been the extensive welfare benefits provided by the government to its citizens. The supply of gas and electricity, expansion of toilet facilities, and new welfare schemes through Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) have enabled the government to secure a solid support base. For instance, recent surveys, such as the National Family Health Survey 2019-2021, show a significant increase in household infrastructure and services like electricity, gas, and toilets (Vaishnav 2023). Furthermore, Modi's recently announced ruling party manifesto doubles the welfare provisions ( Hindustan Times 2024-04-14). The BJP's election manifesto includes various welfare schemes. The opposition, including the INC, has also promised various welfare schemes to attract voters. The INC, in its recently released 46-page manifesto, promised universal healthcare, free education up to 12th grade, and employment schemes for the urban poor. Regional parties have also announced various welfare schemes, such as free food and education, to attract voters. In essence, as each party formulates its election strategy based on competitive populism, a flood of promises for free benefits and welfare schemes is emerging.

Misinformation and Electoral Integrity

Another phenomenon observed in the Indian general elections is the sharp increase in fake news, misinformation, and disinformation that severely distorts voter choices. While fake news and disinformation emerged as a major issue in the 2019 elections, the rapid advancement of technologies such as artificial intelligence and deepfakes is expected to significantly increase the scale and severity of the problems that will arise during the 2024 election process. India is currently considered a global hub for disinformation (Sahoo 2024), and with improved internet accessibility and increased availability of affordable internet data, the 2024 elections are expected to pose a significant challenge in terms of disinformation and electoral integrity. As most parties and candidates actively utilize digital and social media for their campaigns, the Election Commission of India has issued guidelines and warnings to political parties and technology platform companies, urging them to curb the spread of misinformation and disinformation (The Hindu 2024-03-20). Attention is focused on how public institutions, including the Election Commission, will manage disinformation and hate speech during the election period to ensure free and fair elections.

A Fair Contest for All?

The advantages enjoyed by the ruling party (party organization, financial resources, favorable institutional framework, etc.) and the lack of fair competition for opposition forces are another key issue in the 2024 general elections (Punwani 2023; Financial Times 2024-04-16). As the ruling party mobilizes all state institutions to target and exclude major opposition forces and their leaders, concerns about the fairness of the electoral process are growing in Western countries, including Germany and the United States (The Hindu 2024-03-27). Since the Modi government came to power in 2014, investigative agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate (ED), tax authorities, and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) have been weaponized against key opposition leaders. According to one investigative report, the ED alone has interrogated, raided, or arrested 130 political leaders, 115 of whom (95%) were opposition leaders (Tiwary 2022). In particular, the arrest of chief ministers of states like Delhi and Jharkhand by the ED during the election period on unproven charges has caused significant concern.

Even the financial authorities froze assets worth 1 billion rupees (approximately 16.5 billion yen) from the accounts of the Indian National Congress. Even if there were grounds, freezing assets during an election has a massive impact on a political party's ability to conduct its campaign and counter the dominant ruling party. Many opposition parties, including the INC, are facing financial crises. In contrast, the ruling party has ample cash and significant organizational advantages over the opposition. Furthermore, the ruling party is resorting to any means necessary to deprive opposition forces of a fair opportunity in the elections. The ruling party has engaged in poaching from states governed by the opposition, luring away key leaders, and sometimes collapsing state governments. The selective intervention of state agencies such as the ED and CBI has facilitated these maneuvers (Tiwary 2022).

In summary, with the Modi government employing various means to hinder the competitive opportunities of opposition forces, recent Indian elections are considered one-sided contests (Ellis-Petersen 2024). The INDIA alliance's launch of the "Save Democracy" campaign is an extension of this context.

Predictable Outcome?

Predicting election outcomes in a complex political system like India's is risky, but the results of this election appear predictable. All pre-election opinion polls predicted a comfortable victory for Prime Minister Modi and the ruling party. Driven by Modi's personal popularity, the BJP-led coalition is expected to sweep all regions except the South. According to the largest opinion poll conducted by India Today (India Today), the ruling coalition is expected to secure 335 seats, and the opposition coalition 160 seats (Bhattacharya 2024). However, considering the divisions within the opposition alliance and Prime Minister Modi's sustained high approval ratings, the BJP is anticipating an overwhelming victory, potentially securing over 400 seats out of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha.

Despite the seemingly assured victory, the ruling party remains cautious, closely monitoring political shifts during the campaign and the relatively lower support in the southern and eastern regions. The ruling party is employing an aggressive strategy, using all means to woo prominent opposition leaders and neutralize opposition campaigns, while also recruiting social media influencers, celebrities, and prominent media personalities ( NDTV 2024).

Conclusion

India's elections, held every five years, involve nearly a billion voters, with a growing participation rate among women and minorities. This demonstrates India's success as a low-income, ethnically diverse country achieving democratization, and India's electoral process is drawing global attention. However, with the recent erosion of fair competition between parties and the weakening of democratic institutions, India's democracy appears to be heading into uncharted territory. If the right-wing BJP wins another landslide victory against a weak and divided opposition, India will move closer to the risks of illiberalism and democratic backsliding. ■

References

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Bhattacharya, Devika, 2024. “Modi 3.0 is Mood of the Nation, survey predicts 335 seats for NDA.” India Today. February 8. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/mood-of-the-nation-2024-lok-sabha-elections-pm-modi-nda-win-likely-india-alliance-congress-important-issues-2499457-2024-02-08 (Accessed April 18, 2024)

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______. 2024c. 「U.S. encourages ‘fair, transparent’ trial for Arvind Kejriwal.」3月27日。https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/us-encourages-fair-transparent-process-for-arrested-indian-opposition-figure/article67994842.ece (2024年4月18日閲覧)

Tiwary, Deeptiman. 2022. 「2014年以降、政治家に対するED（執行局）の訴追が4倍に増加、95％は野党から」The Indian Express、9月21日。https://indianexpress.com/article/express-exclusive/since-2014-4-fold-jump-in-ed-cases-against-politicians-95-per-cent-are-from-opposition-8163060/（2024年4月18日アクセス）

Vaishnav, Milan. 2023. 「インドの2024年総選挙の構図を読み解く」カーネギー国際平和財団。12月7日。https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/07/decoding-india-s-2024-election-contest-pub-91178（2024年4月18日アクセス）

■ ニランジャン・サフー（Niranjan Sahoo）_インド・オブザーバー研究財団（Observer Research Foundation）上級研究員。

■ 担当・編集：パク・ハンス_EAI研究員

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