[New Year Special Commentary Series] IV. The Impact of Trump's Re-election on Democracy and Countermeasures

1. The Retreat of Global Democracy and the Year of Elections

Warnings about the retreat of global democracy continue unabated. The 2023 report by the V-Dem Institute states that the average level of democracy enjoyed by global citizens (as of 2022) has regressed to 1986 levels. This is the result of the gradual erosion of democratic gains made over the past 35 years. According to scholars at the V-Dem Institute, who categorize political regimes into four types—liberal democracy, electoral democracy, electoral autocracy, and closed autocracy—28 percent of the world's population lives under closed autocracy, which does not even hold elections, and only 13 percent live under liberal democracy (V-Dem Institute 2023). While South Korea has established itself as a leading liberal democracy in Asia, the Asia-Pacific region, to which South Korea belongs, has experienced the most significant regression. Freedom House's 2023 'Freedom in the World' report notes that while freedom worldwide has been declining for 17 consecutive years, there are signs of hope as the gap between countries where political rights and civil liberties have improved and those where they have worsened begins to narrow (Freedom House 2023). Will the global democracy index in 2024 stop its decline and rebound?

The Economist's 'The World Ahead 2024' offers a pessimistic outlook, suggesting that this year will be one of great concern for those who cherish liberal democracy (Beddoes 2023). This is because the prospects for election outcomes are far from favorable for liberal democracy. In 2024, presidential or parliamentary elections are scheduled in 50 countries worldwide. In the first half alone, there are the Taiwan presidential election on January 13, the Indonesian and Pakistani general elections in February, the Russian presidential election in March, the South Korean general election in April, the Indian general election in April-May, and the European Parliament election in June. Pratap Bhanu Mehta, in the January issue of 'Foreign Policy',Foreign Policy) predicts that these elections will threaten liberal democracy, as a majority of voters will gravitate towards nationalism, leading to votes against liberalism (Mehta 2024). Right-wing identity politics began to spread in Europe after the 2015-16 refugee crisis. With the right-wing party becoming the largest in the Dutch general election last November, the rise of nationalist parties is also anticipated in the European Parliament election in June.

The most significant election this year is undoubtedly the U.S. presidential election on November 5. The election in the United States, a superpower, is crucial because if former President Donald Trump is re-elected, it will have significant repercussions not only domestically but also on the international stage. For this reason, The Economist has called Trump the greatest threat in 2024, and similar columns are increasing. Although it is still a hypothetical scenario, it has a high probability of becoming reality in ten months, so we must analyze and prepare for how a second Trump administration might bring difficulties to American democracy and global democracy.

2. Trump and American Democracy

President Trump is an unprecedented figure in American history. Discussions about his impeachment began even before the 2016 presidential election. Following the submission of the Mueller Report in April 2019, which investigated Russian interference in the election starting in 2017, impeachment demands spread, particularly among Democratic lawmakers. Amidst this atmosphere, on December 18, 2020, the U.S. House of Representatives passed articles of impeachment against President Trump on two charges: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, related to his dealings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Subsequently, on January 13, 2021, the House passed another impeachment article holding President Trump responsible for inciting the January 6 Capitol riot. At the time, the U.S. Senate acquitted Trump in both instances, preventing his conviction. Trump is the first president in U.S. history to be impeached twice by the House.

As expected, former President Trump is preparing to run in the 2024 presidential election, and the primaries (preliminary elections) for both the Republican and Democratic parties are beginning state by state in January. Concurrently, legal challenges regarding Trump's eligibility for office are ongoing. Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution prohibits individuals who have engaged in insurrection or rebellion from holding federal office. Based on this provision, on December 19 last year, the Colorado Supreme Court made a landmark decision to disqualify Trump from appearing on the state's Republican primary ballot, citing his role in the Capitol riot. Meanwhile, on December 27, the Michigan Supreme Court, a swing state crucial to the presidential election outcome, ruled that he could appear on the Michigan Republican primary ballot in February, on the same issue. However, the following day, the Secretary of State of Maine issued a decision similar to Colorado's, disqualifying Trump from the ballot. Trump is not only appealing to higher state courts to restrict his candidacy but is also pressuring the federal Supreme Court to expedite its review so that his name can appear on the Colorado primary ballot. The legal arguments from Trump's defense team against the disqualification of presidential candidates by specific states contend that eligibility for candidacy should be determined not by state courts but by Congress or the voters, and that the January 6 Capitol riot was a political protest, not an insurrection against the state. The federal Supreme Court has scheduled oral arguments for February 8, and given that primaries will be held in many states in March, a decision is expected within February. The disqualification of a major party's presidential candidate by a court would be unprecedented and could infringe upon voters' rights, making it likely that Trump's eligibility will be affirmed.

It is evident that American democracy will regress if Trump is re-elected. When he won the 2016 presidential election, many believed that the system underpinning American democracy would temper the president's anti-democratic tendencies. However, President Trump demonstrated how a leader could undermine democratic institutions even in an advanced democracy. In their seminal work published in Trump's second year in office, 'How Democracies Die,' Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt argue that, like other authoritarian leaders, Trump disregards democratic norms and rules, rejects the legitimacy of political opponents, incites violence, and restricts the civil liberties of opponents, including the media (Levitsky and Ziblatt 2018). Trump's political style, which ignores or exploits institutional conventions beyond legal boundaries, culminated in his refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election. Larry Diamond, in his 2019 book 'Ill Winds,' analyzed Russia's rage, China's ambition, and America's complacency as three pathological winds harming democracy, stating that America's complacency was precisely what led to Trump's presidential victory (Diamond 2019). He asserts that Trump has had an unprecedented and profound negative impact on American democracy by undermining the independence and morale of intelligence agencies, the Department of Justice, and other law enforcement bodies. Will American complacency be repeated? The repetition of complacency could be decisive. Thomas Pepinsky predicts that if Trump is re-elected after witnessing the failure of the Capitol riot by his followers due to inflammatory conspiracy theories in 2021, he will appoint his loyalists to key positions and fully utilize executive power to retaliate against institutions like the courts and the Department of Justice that opposed Trump (Pepinsky 2023).How Democracies DieHow Democracies DieIll WindsPepinsky, Thomas. 2023. “The return of US isolationism.” East Asia Forum. December 24. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/12/24/the-return-of-us-isolationism/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter2023-12-24 (Accessed: January 5, 2024).

The politically polarized U.S. Congress and social media populism that fuels extremism remain prevalent in the United States. In a similar political and social environment, who emerges as the candidate will determine the outcome. Current polls show that while former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is gaining traction among Republicans, former President Trump still holds a significant lead in support. President Biden, who would be the Democratic opponent, is trailing significantly behind Trump in approval ratings, and Trump is projected to win by a small margin against Vice President Kamala Harris, who could be an alternative candidate.

3. Retreat of U.S. Support for Global Democracy and Instability of the Liberal Order

The political phenomena of ailing democracies—continuous military coups, declining election quality, loss of checks and balances to curb the tyranny of rulers, erosion of press freedom, suppression of political opponents, human rights abuses against minorities, populism that rejects social pluralism, and partisan political polarization—also have adverse effects on global politics. In particular, when domestic politics in major powers become authoritarian, as seen in the ongoing wars, it poses a threat to the security of neighboring countries. Putin's Russia initiated the war not only to reclaim former Soviet territories but also to prevent Ukraine from joining the Western democratic bloc. The rightward shift of the Israeli Netanyahu government, by not respecting the sovereignty of Palestine, the counterpart in the 'Two-State Solution,' contributed to the war in Gaza, which began with Hamas's brutal terrorist attacks. Countries that uphold democratic values and principles respect the sovereignty of their neighbors and cooperate for peaceful coexistence, forming the foundation of the liberal international order. President Biden, aware of this connection between domestic and international influences of democracy, has made countering authoritarianism a key pillar of his foreign policy.

Meanwhile, former President Trump, during his term, neglected or downplayed democracy promotion diplomacy, pursuing a pragmatic diplomacy based on transactional interests. If he is re-elected, it will negatively impact global democracy, which is already facing difficulties. First, the capacity to check authoritarian leaders will be weakened. Authoritarian powers, particularly Russia and China, will actively promote the legitimacy of their systems while mocking the dysfunction of democracies. For key partners like India and Saudi Arabia, where illiberal politics are rampant, the U.S. government's top leadership will show no interest in criticizing or curbing democratic regression. Second, U.S. government programs supporting democratic governance and human rights protection in Global South countries will be reduced, potentially stifling civil society organizations struggling for democratization. Ultimately, supporting global democracy requires financial investment and institutional know-how. If the United States neglects this, the Global South may lose its motivation for democratization while receiving support from authoritarian powers. Consequently, authoritarianism is likely to spread further worldwide.

Third, if the protectionist and isolationist diplomacy under the 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) campaign is applied to key allies like South Korea and Japan, the hard-won trilateral cooperation framework among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan could falter. In particular, since the democracy agenda has been a central pursuit of the United States within the trilateral cooperation framework, it is highly probable that cooperation on democracy will be the first to disappear under a second Trump administration. If other liberal democratic nations do not step up to protect democracy and human rights in the Indo-Pacific region, it will send a negative signal for democratization efforts in regional countries.

There will also be negative impacts on the international order. First, global governance is likely to become more unstable. In recent years, the international community has faced emergencies in peace and health, such as the pandemic and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. As the United Nations has failed to demonstrate adequate capacity to resolve urgent issues, minilateral arrangements where countries with similar positions band together are increasing. Former President Trump did not commit to international missions, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organization. If the United States, still the leading superpower of the free world, reverts to a policy of national self-interest and isolationism due to a change in presidential leadership, global governance will face even greater challenges.

Second, there could be negative repercussions for the security situation. The military support for Zelensky's government in the Ukraine war might cease, leading to a de facto Russian victory, which would be disastrous. The long-standing bond between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States is based on the shared value of liberal democracy. However, Trump, who disregards these values, openly spoke of withdrawing from NATO during his first term. To prevent a recurrence of withdrawal attempts, the U.S. Congress, on December 14, included a provision in the National Defense Authorization Act that prohibits the president from withdrawing from NATO without the Senate's approval or an act of Congress. Trump, who frequently mentioned the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea to his staff, citing the high cost, might attempt to implement this during a second administration. His style of enjoying transactional diplomacy could be applied again to negotiations with North Korea's Kim Jong Un, or his statements indicating he would not promise to defend Taiwan could embolden China, potentially plunging the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia, and the entire Indo-Pacific region into a precarious security situation.

Third, in the Indo-Pacific region, where U.S.-China competition is fierce, the absence of values-based diplomacy under a second Trump administration would weaken America's superior soft power and aid China's expansion of influence. For the United States, engaged in geopolitical and technological competition with China, democratic values and norms such as openness, reliability, transparency, pluralism, and inclusivity are ideological elements that encourage various countries worldwide to side with the U.S. over China. The Indo-Pacific strategies of South Korea, the U.S., Japan, and major European countries have all emphasized the existing liberal rules-based order. This order would not be possible without solidarity for liberal democracy.

4. Countermeasures Against the Possibility of a Second Trump Administration

To protect and support democracy in the Indo-Pacific region and globally, first, we must strengthen trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan by diversifying its layers, ensuring that democratic cooperation is not overly swayed by the U.S. presidential election results. In August 2023, the leaders of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan met at Camp David and adopted a joint statement known as the 'Spirit of Camp David.' The statement declared, 'We commit to expanding trilateral cooperation across all domains and throughout the Indo-Pacific region and beyond, and to elevating our common objectives to new heights.' It emphasized common goals: 'We will strengthen our economies, provide resilience and prosperity, uphold a free and open international order based on the rule of law (omitted), and enhance regional and global peace and security. We will strengthen our cooperation to promote democracy and protect human rights.' However, while the trilateral cooperation mechanism mentions existing and new high-level intergovernmental channels, it lacks concrete plans for democratic cooperation. The leaders of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan must be reminded of democracy's functional role in peace and prosperity, prioritize related agendas, and actively engage non-governmental stakeholders to build a stable and sustainable democratic cooperation mechanism. The parliaments, business organizations, media, and civil society groups of the three countries should strengthen mutual outreach to unite in protecting and supporting democracy. As all three countries will serve as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council in 2024, there will be opportunities to work together for the restoration and strengthening of democracy in the international community.

Second, a platform for promoting democratic cooperation must be established within the Indo-Pacific region. While platforms exist to address regional economic or security issues, the agenda of democracy has consistently been relegated to the back burner. Therefore, a 1.5-track platform dedicated to protecting and supporting democracy in the region should be established. Currently, a private initiative called 'The Sunnylands Initiative' exists as a network for democratic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, but it remains at the level of private sector collaboration. Participation in such a platform should include not only South Korea, the U.S., and Japan but also Australia, Indonesia, and India. India's participation is important, as it is a major influence in West Asia and the largest democracy by population, despite issues with Hindu nationalism. The participation of Pacific island nations, which show great interest in combining environmentally friendly development cooperation with the democracy agenda, would also be welcome. If democratic leadership from the United States falters, major democratic countries in the region should take the lead in establishing such a platform.

Third, South Korea can pursue its own democracy diplomacy. In late March, the South Korean government will host the 3rd Summit for Democracy. Since the Biden administration launched the Summit for Democracy in December 2021, South Korea co-hosted the 2nd Summit for Democracy Asia-Pacific Conference with the U.S. in March 2023 and will now lead the entire 3rd Summit for Democracy. The planning team for our government is focusing on the agenda of democratic governance for digital new technologies and artificial intelligence (AI), building upon the themes of civil society cohorts organized over the past three years. Furthermore, the emphasis on the youth generation under the slogan 'Democracy for Future Generations' is a new development. As a second Trump administration looms, doubts are spreading about whether it will continue the Summit for Democracy launched by President Biden, a political rival. South Korea, in preparing for the 3rd Summit, must discuss with like-minded countries how to sustain the Summit for Democracy in some form. Additionally, through this event, it is necessary to absorb the network and know-how of democratic cooperation to establish an independent organization that supports democracy abroad. South Korea, once one of the 'Four Asian Tigers' during its development era, has evolved into a significant nation, even adopting the motto of a 'global pivotal state.' Now, through contribution diplomacy that assists emerging democracies, it must play a role in restoring global democracy, which is in decline. ■

References

Beddoes, Zanny Minton. 2023. “2024 will be stressful for those who care about liberal democracy.” The Economist. November 13. https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/2024-will-be-stressful-for-those-who-care-about-liberal-democracy (Accessed: January 5, 2024.)

Diamond, Larry. 2019. Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency. New York: Penguin Random House.

Freedom House. 2023. Freedom in the World 2023. https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/FIW_World_2023_DigtalPDF.pdf (Accessed: January 5, 2024.)

Levitsky, Steven, and Daniel Ziblatt. 2018. How Democracies Die. New York: Broadway Books.

Mehta, Pratap Bhanu. 2024. “The Specter of Nationalism.” Foreign Policy. January 3. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/03/nationalism-elections-2024-democracy-liberalism/ (Accessed: January 5, 2024.)

Pepinsky, Thomas. 2023. “The return of US isolationism.” East Asia Forum. December 24. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/12/24/the-return-of-us-isolationism/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter2023-12-24 (Accessed: January 5, 2024.)

V-Dem Institute. 2023. Democracy Report 2023: Defiance in the Face of Autocratization. https://www.v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf (Accessed: January 5, 2024.)

Lee Sook-jong_Senior Fellow at the East Asia Institute. Distinguished Professor at Sungkyunkwan University.

■ Responsible for and Edited by: Park Han-soo_Research Fellow at EAI

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