[East Asia Institute (EAI) Academic Policy Publication Series] Vol. 5: Japan's Perception and Strategy Regarding North Korea's New Cold War Theory: Strengthening Japan's Defense and Global Normative Power

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North Korea's Hostility Towards Trilateral Cooperation Among South Korea, China, and Japan

At the 6th Plenary Meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea held in December 2022, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un defined the current external environment facing North Korea as a "New Cold War" and perceived the trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan as hostile. As the realization of trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan gains momentum, a new military bloc akin to an "Asian NATO" is being formed. In response, he argued for prioritizing the strengthening of nuclear and defense capabilities to enhance North Korea's security.

As of April 13 of this year, North Korea has launched nine missiles, with recent launches coinciding with the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise "Freedom Shield" (FS). North Korea had previously warned of the "strongest response to the most heinous plot of the United States and its followers" (Bae 2023) and recently launched a missile before South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's visit to Japan for a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. In Japan, concerns are growing, particularly as North Korean missiles have fallen within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This article examines Japan's perception of North Korea and its response strategies to the North Korean threat.

Japan's Perception of North Korea: Considering North Korea as an 'Issue of Concern'

The Japanese government has stated that "various measures have been taken to achieve the fundamental goal of normalizing relations with North Korea by comprehensively resolving various issues (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan 2022)." The Japanese Cabinet Office has been conducting the "Public Opinion Survey on Diplomacy" (外交に関する世論調査) since 2002. Unlike surveys asking about preferences or favorability towards other countries, the survey asks about "issues of concern" regarding North Korea. The main items include the abduction issue, the nuclear issue, the missile issue, and the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and North Korea, with these four issues consistently identified as the primary concerns related to North Korea.

Figure 1: Issues of Concern Regarding North Korea (2002-2022)

Recent survey results indicate that awareness of North Korea's missile issue has increased, surpassing the abduction issue, while discussions on normalizing Japan-North Korea relations are gradually fading as an issue of concern (Figure 1). The perception of Japan as a victim of North Korea's illegal activities continues to deepen, leading to a heightened negative perception of North Korea. With frequent missile launches, drills for resident evacuation when alarms sound, the threat posed by North Korea is increasingly highlighted.

North Korea's Security Threat: Strengthening Japan's Security and Multilateral Initiatives

"North Korea's military activities pose a grave and imminent threat to Japan's national security more than ever before. North Korea's repeated ballistic missile launches pose a serious challenge not only to Japan but also to the international community, and this is absolutely unacceptable." In response, Japan has been lodging strong protests through various multilateral initiatives, including the G7. Japan also appeals for the urgent need for international cooperation to enforce UN Security Council resolutions demanding the complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement of all North Korean weapons of mass destruction and all ballistic missiles of all types. Japan repeatedly emphasizes these points in meetings with foreign leaders and ministers, underscoring the importance of joint efforts to address the security threats posed by North Korea (Cabinet Secretariat 2022).

While continuously prioritizing multilateral initiatives to counter the security threats posed by North Korea, Japan is simultaneously strengthening its own security. For approximately 77 years since World War II, Japan adhered to the principle of limited defense based on 전수방위 (defensive defense) under Article 9 of its constitution. However, security threats such as North Korea's security threats, U.S.-China competition, and the Russia-Ukraine war have strengthened the rationale for enhancing Japan's defense capabilities. Japan plans to take measures to increase its defense budget to the level of 2% of its GDP by 2027 (Cabinet Secretariat 2022).

Japan is currently moving away from the post-war regime and shaping a new identity as a global power. Japan is actively responding to North Korea's persistent missile launches through the G7. The G7 has expressed its full solidarity with Japan and South Korea, urged North Korea to cease its destabilizing activities, and called on North Korea to engage in meaningful dialogue for denuclearization and accept the dialogue repeatedly proposed by the United States, Japan, and South Korea (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan 2023).

Through multilateral cooperation via the G7, as well as trilateral cooperation between Japan and the United States, Japan condemns North Korea's persistent security threats, emphasizes the importance of a multilateral approach to these threats, and seeks to exercise its leadership in the international community. As the G7 Presidency this year, Japan will focus on promoting global cooperation towards denuclearization and resolving North Korea's security issues in historically significant Hiroshima.

The Abduction Issue: Japan as a Global Normative Power

"The abduction issue by North Korea is a grave matter concerning Japan's sovereignty and the lives and safety of the Japanese people, and it is an urgent issue that the government must resolve responsibly. It is also a universal issue that the international community must address as a violation of fundamental human rights (Cabinet Secretariat 2022)." Japan's official position on the abduction issue is that it has confirmed 12 individual cases involving a total of 17 Japanese abduction victims, of whom 12 have yet to return. While North Korea claims that 8 of the 12 abductees have died and the remaining 4 cannot be confirmed to have entered North Korean territory, Japan continues to strive for a resolution under the assumption that all missing abductees are alive (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan 2022). Japan has accused North Korea of human rights violations, being an undemocratic state, and a violator of international norms regarding the abduction issue. Japan strongly supports international norms and human rights promotion on this issue and perceives itself as a global normative power.

Unlike its past role as an aggressor during the colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula, in the context of the abduction issue, Japan has positioned itself as a victim and demanded apologies and concrete actions from the North Korean government. Japan emphasizes that the normalization of relations with North Korea hinges on the resolution of this "grave humanitarian issue" (Cabinet Secretariat 2022). To this end, Japan has actively sought international support by framing the abduction issue not merely as a bilateral problem but as one based on human rights and normative values. By continuously demanding and securing international understanding and sympathy for the Japanese abduction issue, Japan is solidifying its status as a global normative power.

Securitization and Counter-Securitization

As the world's only atomic-bombed nation, Japan has adhered to the three non-nuclear principles. Prime Minister Kishida, hailing from Hiroshima Prefecture, also declared his commitment to denuclearization in his book, "Towards a World Free of Nuclear Weapons" (岸田文雄, 2020). Amidst an international climate of persistent nuclear threats, it is necessary to pay attention to how the international community will handle the nuclear issue and what stance Japan will take on this matter.

Both North Korea and Japan justify their respective military build-ups as responses to threats. North Korea argues that it has no alternative but to strengthen its nuclear and defense capabilities for national security due to the military blockade by South Korea, the U.S., and Japan. Similarly, Japan perceives North Korea as a threat and places significant emphasis on strengthening its defense capabilities. To this end, with the support of the G7, Japan is actively pursuing the strengthening of the Japan-U.S. alliance, enhancing international cooperation, and reinforcing its normative influence within the UN. As part of a broader strategy to strengthen a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific," Japan is enhancing cooperation among like-minded countries to uphold an international order based on the rule of law.

While North Korea perceives the international situation as a "New Cold War," Japan is actively addressing the North Korean issue, solidifying its global normative power, and gradually distancing itself from its past history of aggression. As the G7 Presidency in 2023 and a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for 2023-2024, Japan will strongly condemn North Korea's violations of international norms and enhance Japan's global leadership.

Japan in the International Order After U.S.-China Competition and the Russia-Ukraine War

The international community is at a historical turning point (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan 2023). Russia's "aggression" in Ukraine has provided a turning point for Japan to shed its "post-war" identity. The image of Japan as a war aggressor, which had normatively constrained it, has now been transferred to Russia. Although direct military support to Ukraine is difficult under the constraints of the pacifist constitution, Japan is actively providing humanitarian assistance and condemning Russia as an aggressor and war criminal. This is a generational shift that allows Japan to escape the image of an aggressor and war criminal that has long suppressed it. In response, Japan emphasizes its image as a peace-loving nation upholding a free and open, stable international order.

In the strategic competition between the United States and China across various domains, Japan is cooperating with the U.S. while simultaneously strengthening its own defense capabilities. The "rapid advancement of North Korea's nuclear and missile development" and "China's unilateral change of the status quo in the East China Sea and South China Sea by force" have been presented as unavoidable grounds for strengthening Japan's military capabilities for security. Japan plays a key role in the conception and operation of multilateral security and economic networks such as FOIP, CPTPP, QUAD, and TICAD, thereby exercising Japan-centered multilateral initiatives. Furthermore, it actively advocates for value diplomacy, emphasizing universal values such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, and strengthens solidarity with allies and like-minded countries. Following the regional concept of the "Arc of Freedom and Prosperity," which combines geopolitics with values, Japan has materialized the concept of a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP). In its relations with China, Japan maintains a policy of managing relations for a "constructive and stable relationship" while speaking out against China, by pursuing technological cooperation with Taiwan and sharing security perceptions regarding the Taiwan Strait. In this manner, by criticizing aggressor Russia, preparing for the tangible threat of North Korea, and strategically responding to the attempts of China to alter the status quo, Japan is pursuing its rise as a global leader by building a complex network that combines values and interests.

※ This commentary is the Korean translation of "Japan's Stance on North Korea's New Cold War Narrative: Strengthening Japan's Defense and Global Normative Power."

References

CNN. 2023. “North Korea fires submarine missiles ahead of largest US-South Korea military drills in years.” March 13.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/12/world/north-korea-submarine-missile-launch/index.htm

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. 2022. “Diplomatic Bluebook 2022.”

https://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/other/bluebook/2022/en_html/chapter2/c020203.html

Cabinet Secretariat. 2022. “National Security Strategy of Japan.” December. https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/siryou/221216anzenhoshou/nss-e.pdf

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. 2023.“The G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting.” February 18. https://www.mofa.go.jp/page1e_000572.html

岸田文雄. 2020. 『核兵器のない世界へ-勇気ある平和国家の志』. 東京: 日経BP.

MOFA. 2023. “Diplomatic Bluebook 2023.” https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/100488910.pdf

■ Oh Seung-hee_ Research Professor at the Institute of Japanese Studies, Seoul National University. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Ewha Womans University. She previously served as a Senior Research Fellow and Secretary-General at the East Asia Institute (EAI) and conducted visiting research at Keio University in Japan and National Chengchi University in Taiwan. She has also lectured at Catholic University, Korea University, and Ewha Womans University. Her major works and papers include "East Asian Struggles for Recognition" (2023), "Post-War Japan-China Relations (1949-2019)" (co-authored, 2019), "Japan's Game Changer Strategy in an Era of Hyper-Uncertainty: Abe Doctrine, Security Nexus, and Value Network" (2023), "Japan's Value-Oriented Diplomatic Network: Struggles for Recognition, Value Networks, and Diplomatic Hypocrisy" (2022), and "Japan's Diplomatic Network with Neighboring Countries: Dilemmas Regarding Taiwan and North Korea Amidst U.S.-China Strategic Competition" (2021).

■ Editor: Park Jeong-hoo_ EAI Researcher

Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 205) | jhpark@eai.or.kr