[EAI Issue Brief] Weakening of Structural Factors That Have Determined Past Korean Election Results and Predictability of Election Outcomes

[Summary]

1. Problem Statement: Concentrated Voting Intentions on Major Party Candidates

A common characteristic of South Korean presidential elections since democratization has been competition among multiple candidates and strong performance by third-party candidates. However, in the current presidential election, 71.5% of all respondents are concentrating their voting intentions on the two major party candidates: 36.5% for Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and 35.0% for Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party. This brief aims to examine whether this concentrated voting intention towards the major party candidates is due to the influence of persistent and structural factors that have dominated elections in Korean society, or if it reflects the specific characteristics of the current election.

2. Weakening Predictability of Election Outcomes by Structural Factors Such as Age, Region, and Ideology

Young voters have changed. Among voters in their 20s, 18.9% support candidates from progressive parties, and 32.4% support candidates from conservative parties. Regionally, compared to the vote distribution in the 19th presidential election, the intention to vote for the Democratic Party candidate in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions has decreased by approximately 5.5%, while the intention to vote for the People Power Party candidate in the Honam region has increased by approximately 10%. The proportion where voting intentions for the major party candidates can be clearly predicted based on the voter's ideological orientation is 17.0% for those with a progressive ideology intending to vote for Lee Jae-myung, and 20.5% for those with a conservative ideology intending to vote for Yoon Suk-yeol.

3. Close Correlation Between Preference for Government Change and Voting Intention

There is a close correlation between agreement with the assertion that this election is a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration and the intention to vote for each party's candidate. While 41.8% agree with the referendum claim, 41% disagree. Meanwhile, the intention to vote for Lee Jae-myung is 36.5%, and for Yoon Suk-yeol is 35%.

4. Coalition of Young Voters, the 386 Generation, and Elderly Voters for a Referendum on the Moon Jae-in Administration

Young voters have changed. 39.3% of voters in their 20s define this presidential election as a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration. The 386 generation has also changed. 45.8% of the 386 generation define this presidential election as a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration. What about the elderly? Over half of the elderly population defines this presidential election as a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration.

5. Strengthening Public Opinion for a Referendum on the Moon Jae-in Administration in Honam and Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam

20.7% in the Honam region define this presidential election as a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration. In contrast, 41.3% in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions and 30.9% in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions do not agree with the above assertion.

6. Perception of Economic Conditions Over the Past Five Years Closely Linked to Referendum on Government and Voting Intention

Among voters who perceive their personal economic situation over the past five years as having been good, 64.5% do not agree with the assertion that this election is a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration, and 65.5% intend to vote for the Democratic Party's Lee Jae-myung. Among voters who perceive their personal economic situation over the past five years as having worsened, 63.1% agree that this election is a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration, and 14.9% intend to vote for the People Power Party's Yoon Suk-yeol. A similar distribution is observed in the perception of the national economy over the past five years.

Among voters who perceive their personal economic situation over the past five years as having worsened, 63.1% agree that this election is a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration, and 14.9% intend to vote for the People Power Party's Yoon Suk-yeol. A similar distribution is observed in the perception of the national economy over the past five years.

7. Voters Prioritizing Domestic Politics and Welfare for the Next Government Intend to Vote for Lee Jae-myung, While Those Prioritizing International Politics and Tax Reform Intend to Vote for Yoon Suk-yeol

Of the voters who believe the next government should focus on expanding welfare as its top priority, 56.6% intend to vote for Lee Jae-myung, and of those who believe tax reform should be the priority, 46.9% intend to vote for Yoon Suk-yeol. Conversely, among voters prioritizing job creation, price stability, and economic growth, 35.9% intend to vote for Lee Jae-myung and 34.1% for Yoon Suk-yeol, a difference of only about 1.8% between the two candidates.

Among voters prioritizing youth unemployment, housing issues, and low birth rates for the next government, the intention to vote for Lee Jae-myung is 6.3% higher than for Yoon Suk-yeol. Similarly, for voters prioritizing constitutional revision and political reform, Lee Jae-myung is favored by 29.2%, and for those prioritizing climate and environment issues, by 27.4%. In contrast, among voters prioritizing foreign policy and security issues such as the North Korean nuclear issue and relations with Japan, 56.5% intend to vote for Yoon Suk-yeol, while 27.7% intend to vote for Lee Jae-myung, a difference of about 28.8% in favor of Yoon Suk-yeol.

1. Problem Statement: Concentrated Voting Intentions on Major Party Candidates

Since democratization, South Korean presidential elections have been characterized not only by competition among multiple candidates but also by a strong tendency for third-party candidates to split the vote by securing a certain percentage of votes. The 16th election where Roh Moo-hyun was elected and the 18th presidential election where Park Geun-hye was elected were rather exceptions.

However, despite the characteristics of competition among multiple candidates and third-party candidates securing a certain level of votes, Korean presidential election outcomes have been accompanied by the feature that structural factors, which do not change easily, have had a profound impact on the election results. This is reflected in the tendency of young voters to traditionally support candidates from progressive parties, while elderly voters tend to support candidates from conservative parties, or voters in Honam support candidates from the Democratic Party lineage, while voters in Yeongnam support candidates from anti-Democratic Party lineage. Furthermore, in recent elections, voters' individual ideological orientations have also begun to be considered as a major structural factor.

In contrast, public opinion in South Korea, about 50 days before the 20th presidential election, shows significant differences from what has been observed in previous presidential elections.

First, the most prominent phenomenon is the concentration of voter support for the two major party candidates. Graph 1, which illustrates the distribution of voting intentions for the three major party candidates, revealed in the first wave of the 20th Presidential Election Panel Survey conducted in January 2022, organized by the East Asia Institute (EAI) and carried out by Korea Research, shows this concentration phenomenon.

[Figure 1] Voting Intentions for the Three Major Party Candidates

Figure 1 shows the proportion of the total 1,515 respondents who intend to vote for the three major party candidates in response to the question, "If tomorrow were the presidential election day, who would you vote for?" Among these, the proportion intending to vote for the two major party candidates reaches 71.5%.

Considering that in the 19th presidential election in 2017, the vote share for the two major party candidates was approximately 61.1% (Moon Jae-in: 41.1%, Hong Joon-pyo: 24%), with the third-party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo receiving 21.4%, the current presidential election shows a characteristic of relatively concentrated voter support for the two major party candidates.

Therefore, this paper aims to present characteristics at the aggregate level as a preliminary analysis to answer questions such as: What factors are influencing this concentrated voting intention towards the major party candidates? Are structural factors still dominant as in the past? If not, what changes are being observed?

Furthermore, through this aggregate-level analysis, we aim to demonstrate that unlike the past, where structural factors were dominant, the importance of short-term perceptions of recent political and economic changes in Korean society is increasing in the 2022 South Korean presidential election.

2. Increased Uncertainty in Predicting Age Effects

[Figure 2] Age and Generation and Voting Intentions

First, the traditional prediction that young voters tend to support progressive candidates is likely to be overturned in this presidential election.

The distribution of intended voting by age group, divided into 10-year units such as the 20s and 30s, shown in [2.a], indicates that 18.9% of voters in their 20s intend to vote for the Democratic Party candidate, considered progressive, and 32.4% intend to vote for the People Power Party candidate, considered conservative.

Furthermore, the distribution in [Figure 2.b], which reorganizes age groups based on the 386 generation, also shows that this phenomenon is occurring among young voters, including those up to 33 years old.

These characteristics of voting tendencies among young voters are that 1) the distribution of voting intentions by candidate is similar to that of elderly voters aged 60 or 64 and over, and 2) the proportion of undecided voters or those with no preferred candidate is also higher compared to other age groups.

The 386 generation in South Korean elections has been evaluated as a generation that exhibits unique collective voting tendencies and can be distinguished as an independent generation. [Figure 2.b] suggests that in this presidential election, the 386 generation is expected to show a tendency to support progressive candidates, similar to the past. However, it should be noted that this assessment of the 386 generation may require reinterpretation based on the analysis related to agreement with the assertion 'this election is a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration,' discussed below.

Ultimately, considering the changes in intended voting by age group, significant changes are expected among young voters in this presidential election, leading to high uncertainty in predicting traditional age effects.

3. Increased Uncertainty in Predicting Regional Voting Effects

[Figure 3] Region and Voting Intentions

It can be observed that the effect of regional voting behavior, which has traditionally dominated candidate support patterns in South Korean society, is also becoming more uncertain in this presidential election.

In the 19th presidential election, candidate Moon Jae-in received 62.0% of the votes in the Honam region, 37.9% in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, and 21.7% in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions. In contrast, candidate Hong Joon-pyo received 2.4% in the Honam region, 36.7% in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, and 47.0% in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions.

In comparison, [Figure 3] predicts that the Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung will see a decrease in vote share of approximately 5.5% in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, while an increase of about 1% in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions. People Power Party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol is predicted to see an increase in support of about 10% in the Honam region, reaching 12.2%.

These predictions imply that the regional voting behavior, whose influence was significantly reduced in the 19th presidential election due to the high vote share of third-party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, will be further weakened in the 20th presidential election, not only across the entire Yeongnam and Honam regions but also more so in Honam. The result can be described as an increase in the uncertainty of predicting election outcomes in South Korea based on regional voting behavior.

4. Increased Uncertainty in Predicting Voting Outcomes Based on Ideological Orientation

[Table 1] Ideological Orientation and Voting Intentions[1]

Although ideology has recently strengthened its influence as a structural factor in South Korean elections, its impact appears to be weakening in the current presidential election.

Considering Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party as the progressive candidate and Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party as the conservative candidate, the results in [Table 1] show that the proportion of voters who choose a candidate faithfully according to their ideological orientation is only 17.0% for those with a progressive ideology intending to vote for Lee Jae-myung and 20.5% for those with a conservative ideology intending to vote for Yoon Suk-yeol. In essence, over half of the remaining voters, excluding these approximately 37%, are choosing candidates based on factors other than ideology, and this figure implies that a majority of voters remain undecided in this election.

Of course, further consideration should be given to the distance from the candidate's ideological orientation as perceived by the respondents themselves. However, the results in [Table 1] can serve as evidence that the proportion of voters whose candidate choice can be clearly predicted by their ideological orientation is currently around 37%, thereby significantly reducing the predictability of candidate choice based on ideological orientation.

5. Weakening Explanatory Power of Structural Factors and Alternatives

When predicting voting behavior under the assumption that tomorrow is election day, the differentiation of voter groups based on age, generation, region, and ideology—which have traditionally been long-term, structural factors critically influencing election results in South Korean society—shows significant differences in this presidential election compared to the past. In terms of age, the tendency of young voters to support the Democratic Party has significantly weakened. In terms of region, support for conservative candidates has increased in Honam. Furthermore, ideological orientation has explanatory validity only for the choices of voter groups representing approximately 37% of the population. Considering these results, the dominant influence of structural factors is expected to be considerably weakened in this presidential election compared to the past.

Then, what factors, other than structural ones, are strengthening their influence on this presidential election? Below, we aim to show that the issue of government change, measurable by agreement with the assertion 'this election is a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration,' is emerging as a key factor that can determine election outcomes. Furthermore, we intend to show that agreement with the aforementioned assertion is underpinned by differing perceptions of economic conditions over the past five years and the key policy tasks for the next government.

6. Preference for Government Change and Voting Intention

Considering the experience of the Park Geun-hye administration, which was ousted through candlelight vigils and impeachment in 2016, and recent public opinion trends in South Korea, agreement on government change has emerged as a crucial issue in recent Korean elections.

According to [Figure 4], the proportion of those who agree and disagree with the assertion that this election is a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration is approximately equal, at 41.8% and 41%, respectively. Additionally, about 16.5% of respondents neither agree nor disagree with such an assertion.

Notably, comparing the distribution of voting possibilities for the two major party candidates presented on the left side of [Figure 4], we can observe that the proportion of the government change issue and the proportion of voting possibilities for the two major party candidates are almost identical.

Furthermore, considering that over 40% of voters agree with government change, and that 17% of voters do not clearly deny the necessity of government change, it is important to explore what changes in South Korean society are shaping this distribution of public opinion.

[Figure 4] Comparison of Government Change Preference Distribution and Voting Intentions for the Four Major Party Candidates

[Figure 5] Preference for Government Change and Expected Voting Candidate

As shown in [Figure 5], the voting intention for candidates Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party is observed among 65.5% of voters who disagree with the claim that this presidential election is a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration, and 64.4% of voters who agree, respectively.

As such, the association observed between voting intention for a specific candidate and the characterization of the current election is much stronger than structural factors in Korean society such as age, region, and ideology. Ultimately, the voting intentions currently concentrated on the two major party candidates appear to be predominantly influenced by the polarization of preferences regarding the replacement of the Moon Jae-in administration. Therefore, the following will analyze, in comparison with voting intentions, what factors are triggering such polarization of preferences regarding the replacement of the Moon Jae-in administration. First, we will examine how structural factors that have influenced election outcomes in Korean society, such as age, region, and ideology, no longer possess the same explanatory power as in the past regarding agreement with the judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration.

Next, we will examine retrospective evaluations of the economic situation and perceptions of the next government's key policy tasks, which show a stronger association with voting intention for specific candidates and agreement with the judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration.

7. Alliance of the Youth, the 386 Generation, and the Elderly to Judge the Moon Jae-in Administration

[Table 2] Age and Generation and Evaluation of the Moon Jae-in Administration Judgment Election[2]

The changes among the youth are as follows. Regarding the Moon Jae-in administration, considered a progressive administration, not only the youth experiencing their first presidential election but also the youth in their late twenties and early thirties are defining this presidential election as an election to judge the Moon Jae-in administration.

Meanwhile, the changes within the 386 generation are as follows. The only and most valid generational definition in Korean society based on ideological orientation was the 386 generation. They were evaluated as a generation with strong progressive tendencies due to their experiences with democratization in their relatively younger years. However, regarding this presidential election, they, similar to the elderly over 60, are defining it as an election to judge the Moon Jae-in administration. <Table 2.b> shows that the 386 generation also has more than a 5% higher rate of agreement with the claim that this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration than disagreement. This indicates that while the voting intention for candidate Lee Jae-myung remains stronger among this generation than for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, there is significant disappointment with the Moon Jae-in administration, and this disappointment increases the uncertainty in predicting election outcomes depending on how it plays out in the final stages of the election.

Consequently, the difference in perception by age regarding whether this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration implies that, unlike in the past, this presidential election has low predictability based on age. This is particularly influenced by the diversification of candidate preferences among the youth and their evaluation of the Moon Jae-in administration, as well as the 386 generation's evaluation of the Moon Jae-in administration.

8. Strengthening Public Opinion for Judging the Moon Jae-in Administration in Honam and Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam

[Figure 6]. Regime Change Issue and Region

The Moon Jae-in administration received 62.0% of the vote in the Honam region, 37.9% in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, and 21.7% in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions in the 19th presidential election. In comparison, considering that the proportion of those who do not agree with judging the administration is 58.2% in the Honam region, 41.7% in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, and 30.8% in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions, it can be seen that the Honam region has become more critical of the Moon Jae-in administration compared to voting behavior in the 19th presidential election, while the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, and the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions, hold more favorable perceptions of the Moon Jae-in administration.

This change clearly predicts that regionalist voting behavior, which was dominant in Korean society in the past based on region, will decrease to some extent in this presidential election under the frame of an election to judge the Moon Jae-in administration.

9. Increased Explanatory Power of Perceptions of Personal Economic Situation Over the Past 5 Years

The following [Figures 7] and [Figures 8] show the relationship between perceptions of the economic situation over the past 5 years and two variables – the perception that this presidential election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration, and the candidate one would vote for if the presidential election were tomorrow.

Regarding the perception of the election's nature, in relation to agreement with the claim that this presidential election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration, disagreement is represented by dark gray, agreement by light gray, and neither by yellow.

In relation to the voting intention for candidates, the intention to vote for candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party is represented by dark gray, for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party by light gray, and for candidate Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party by yellow.

[Figure 7]. Perception of Personal Economic Situation Over the Past 5 Years and Preference for Regime Change and Voting Intention

First, it can be seen that there is a very close relationship between the perception of the election's nature and the perception of personal economic situation over the past 5 years. While 64.5% of voters who perceive their personal economic situation as having improved over the past 5 years disagree with the claim that this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration, 63.1% of voters who perceive their personal economic situation as having worsened agree with the claim that this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration.

Next, the voting intention for candidates also shows a very close relationship with the perception of personal economic situation over the past 5 years. While 65.5% of voters who perceive their personal economic situation as having improved over the past 5 years intend to vote for candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, 64.4% of voters who perceive their personal economic situation as having worsened intend to vote for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party.

Finally, due to the close relationship between the perception of personal economic situation over the past 5 years and the two variables, a very strong association can be observed between the perception of the election's nature and the voting intention for candidates. Among voters who perceive their personal economic situation as having improved over the past 5 years, the proportion who disagree with the claim that this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration (64.5%) is almost identical to the proportion of voters intending to vote for candidate Lee Jae-myung (65.5%). Similarly, among voters who perceive their personal economic situation as having worsened, the proportion who agree with the claim that this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration (63.1%) and the proportion of voters intending to vote for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol (64.4%) are very similar.

These results imply that the judgment of personal economic situation over the past 5 years will have a decisive influence not only on defining the nature of this presidential election but also on choosing a candidate. This suggests that the adage 'It's the economy, stupid!' is highly applicable to this election.

10. Increased Explanatory Power of Perceptions of National Economic Situation Over the Past 5 Years

[Figure 8] compares the findings in [Figure 7] focusing on perceptions of the national economy over the past 5 years. The colors used in the figure are the same for this purpose.

In other words, regarding the perception of the election's nature, in relation to agreement with the claim that this presidential election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration, disagreement is represented by dark gray, agreement by light gray, and neither by yellow.

In relation to the voting intention for candidates, the intention to vote for candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party is represented by dark gray, for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party by light gray, and for candidate Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party by yellow.

The relationship between perceptions of the national economic situation over the past 5 years and the perception that this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration, and the candidate one intends to vote for if the presidential election were tomorrow, shown in [Figure 8], yields results similar to those in [Figure 7] regarding perceptions of personal economic situation.

However, among voters who perceive the national economy as having worsened over the past 5 years, 62.2% agree that this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration, while only 51.9% intend to vote for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party, showing a difference of about 11%.

Therefore, while perceptions of the economy over the past 5 years still show a close relationship with perceptions of the election's nature and voting intentions, the influence of perceptions of the economy over the past 5 years on voting for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party is relatively lower.

[Figure 8]. Perception of National Economic Situation Over the Past 5 Years and Preference for Regime Change and Voting Intention

11. Diversification of Voter Segments Prioritizing Economic Tasks

[Figure 9]. Economic Policy Tasks and Voting Intention

Examining the relationship between the types of policy tasks the next government should focus on and the candidates to vote for, voters who believe the focus should be on expanding welfare tend to support candidate Lee Jae-myung, while voters who believe the focus should be on tax reform, such as comprehensive real estate tax and capital gains tax, tend to support candidate Yoon Suk-yeol.

56.6% of voters who believe the focus should be on expanding welfare intend to vote for candidate Lee Jae-myung, and 46.9% of voters who believe the focus should be on tax reform intend to vote for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol.

However, it is noteworthy that the confrontational relationship between economic growth and welfare expansion is not reflected in candidate selection. Among voters who prioritize job creation, prices, and economic growth as key policy tasks for the next government, 35.9% intend to vote for candidate Lee Jae-myung, and 34.1% intend to vote for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, with only a difference of about 1.8%. Furthermore, it is more interesting that, contrary to the general association between economic growth issues and support for conservative candidates, voters who perceive economic growth as a key task for the next government relatively support candidate Lee Jae-myung more.

Therefore, unlike the clear division in support between candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol based on the evaluation of economic conditions over the past 5 years, there is no clear distinction between the two candidates regarding future economic growth tasks.

[Figure 10]. Economic Policy Tasks and the Moon Jae-in Administration Judgment Issue

In [Figure 10], similar patterns observed in the relationship between economic policy tasks for the next government and voting intentions for candidates are also observed in relation to whether this election is viewed as a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration.

However, among voters who consider job creation, prices, and economic growth as key policy tasks for the next government, the proportion who believe this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration is 44.3%, which is about 6.5% higher than the 37.8% who do not.

Therefore, while voters who believe economic growth should be a key policy task for the next government strongly feel that the Moon Jae-in administration should be judged in this election, their voting intentions are divided almost equally between candidate Yoon Suk-yeol and candidate Lee Jae-myung. Thus, the proportion who believe they should exclusively seek such judgment through candidate Yoon Suk-yeol appears relatively low.

12. Domestic Political Tasks Favor Candidate Lee Jae-myung, International Political Tasks Favor Candidate Yoon Suk-yeol

[Figure 11]. Political and Social Policy Tasks and Voting Intention

While candidates Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party are competing for voters who believe economic and tax issues should be key policy tasks for the next government, voters who consider political and social issues as key policy tasks appear to have their preferred candidate determined by whether the focus is on domestic or international issues.

Among voters who prioritize youth unemployment, housing issues, and low birth rates as key policy tasks for the next government, 6.3% more intend to vote for candidate Lee Jae-myung than for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol (for constitutional amendment and political reform, the difference is 29.2%; for climate and environmental issues, it is 27.4%).

Conversely, among voters who prioritize foreign policy and security issues, such as the North Korean nuclear issue and relations with Japan, as key policy tasks for the next government, 56.5% intend to vote for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, and 27.7% intend to vote for candidate Lee Jae-myung, showing a difference of about 28.8% in favor of candidate Yoon Suk-yeol.

Therefore, it can be said that candidate Lee Jae-myung garners support from voters who prioritize key domestic political issues such as youth unemployment, housing issues, low birth rates, constitutional amendment and political reform, and climate and environmental issues, while candidate Yoon Suk-yeol is supported by voters who consider foreign and security issues such as the North Korean nuclear issue and relations with Japan as key policy tasks for the next government.

[Figure 12]. Political and Social Policy Tasks and the Moon Jae-in Administration Judgment Issue

Similar associations observed in candidate support behavior among voters who selected political and social tasks as key policy tasks for the next government are also observed in relation to whether this election is considered a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration.

Voter groups who consider issues such as youth, housing, and low birth rates, or constitutional amendment and political reform, and climate and environmental issues as key policy tasks for the next government tend to disagree with the claim that this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration. In contrast, voter groups who consider foreign and security issues, including the North Korean nuclear issue and relations with Japan, as key policy tasks for the next government have a majority agreeing with the claim that this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration.

Consequently, voter groups who consider tax reform and foreign and security issues as important tend to be supporters of candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party and strongly view this election as a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration. Conversely, voter groups who consider welfare expansion, youth, housing, and low birth rate issues, and political reform and climate and environmental issues as key tasks for the next government tend to be supporters of candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and simultaneously tend not to view this election as a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration.

13. Conclusion

The current public opinion trends leading up to this presidential election suggest a decrease in the influence of structural factors such as age, region, and ideology. In contrast, the division between agreement and disagreement regarding the claim that this election is a judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration closely mirrors the distribution of voter intentions for the major party candidates. Therefore, the issue of regime judgment can be considered highly dominant in this election. Furthermore, this polarization of opinions on the regime judgment issue is closely linked to the polarization of positive and negative evaluations of the economic situation over the past five years.

Finally, it is revealed that voters who believe the next government's top policy priorities should be domestic politics and welfare tend to show voting intentions for candidate Lee Jae-myung, while voters who believe they should be international politics and tax reform tend to show voting intentions for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol. On the other hand, issues of job creation and economic growth, which have traditionally served as criteria for distinguishing between progressive and conservative voters and have had a significant influence on candidate selection, are not being exclusively claimed by either candidate Lee Jae-myung or Yoon Suk-yeol. ■

[1] The total is indicated as 1,492, excluding the number of 'don't know/no response'.

[2] The sum is indicated as 1,254, excluding the number of 'don't know/no response'.

■ Author: Han Jeong-hoonProfessor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University, and Director of the EU Center. He lectures on Korean politics, parliamentary and party politics, and comparative politics. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Rochester, New York, and previously served as a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Soongsil University before joining Seoul National University. His main research interests include electoral and parliamentary systems, party politics and parliamentary politics, and the politics of the European Union. He has published articles in numerous leading international and domestic journals, including European Union Politics, Journal of European Public Policy, Korea Observer, Contemporary Politics, and Korean Political Science Review.

■ Responsible for and Edited by:Jeon Juhyun_EAI Research Fellow

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