[EAI Presidential Election Special Commentary] ④ The President Must Possess the Insight to Read the Times

*This article is a compilation of the keynote speech delivered at an expert roundtable as part of the EAI project <Conditions for a Successful President in 2022> last August.

I. Introduction

Korea, once a least developed country, is now lauded as a developed nation by the UN and other international bodies. However, Korean politics is rife with criticism. Regrettably, there are no voices among the Korean public expressing hope, such as, 'I wish we had a president like ○○○ again.' The situation continues, inevitably raising the question, 'How can one succeed as president?' How have presidents before and after democratization in 1987 differed? How many similar mistakes have been repeated? What message can we convey to the next president as a result? Living in the knowledge-information age, experienced through the COVID-19 pandemic, what are the expectations for the next president? What are the conditions for presidential success?

II. Learning from Failed Presidents: 'One Must Read the Changes of the Times and Public Perception'

There was a time when presidents who contributed to nation-building and industrial development were evaluated as successful. President Syngman Rhee, from his days in the independence movement, contemplated how to build a new Republic of Korea and led the establishment of the government. His efforts to lay the foundation for national development in various aspects, including the economy, after enduring the Korean War and forging the ROK-US alliance, are evaluated as historical achievements. However, he ultimately brought about his own downfall by perpetrating the "three-term constitutional amendment" (1953) in pursuit of power. Despite achieving notable accomplishments, he erected significant obstacles to the long-term development of Korean democracy. The Chang Myon government, which emerged after the April 19 Revolution, unfortunately had little impact on Korean political history. President Park Chung-hee, who followed, made significant contributions to national economic development, but ultimately led an unhappy life by creating the Yushin regime in the early 1970s and implementing oppressive policies that violated human rights. Like President Syngman Rhee, he achieved historical accomplishments but cannot be considered a successful president. Presidents Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo merely performed the minimum role of a president, and their tenures also ended poorly. President Kim Young-sam, hailed as a 'president of the people,' led Korea into the IMF bailout crisis, strangely disrupting the nation's political and social structure. President Kim Dae-jung is also recognized as a leader who successfully navigated the IMF crisis in a short period, but public opinion remains divided on whether he was a prepared president. The resolution of the IMF crisis was largely due to substantial US bailout measures and fortuitous factors from the Chinese market, rather than solely the president's ability. President Roh Moo-hyun is remembered as a president who drove himself into a situation where he felt compelled to take his own life. President Lee Myung-bak challenged for the presidency with the title of 'leader who achieved miracles' from his time at Hyundai Engineering and Construction. Recently, it has become difficult to find presidential candidates who have built their political careers in parliament, unlike President Moon Jae-in or the leading presidential candidates this year. Instead, we are witnessing cases of individuals who suddenly became candidates and assumed the presidency.

Among the many questions raised while reflecting on past presidents is, 'Why have Korean presidents since democratization failed to achieve significant accomplishments and shown stagnant progress?' To answer this, it is crucial to remember that the conditions for presidents before and after democratization in 1987 have changed. Presidents after 1987 embarked on national administration without recognizing the altered economic conditions, social structures, and public perceptions. Consequently, they remained as failed presidents.

President Kim Young-sam should have been asked, 'Why was Korea inevitably led into the IMF crisis?' The circumstances leading to the IMF crisis were as follows. He remained trapped in past logic, espousing the idea that Korea could achieve the economic growth rates enjoyed during the past military regimes. As a means to maintain high economic growth rates, he eased regulations on conglomerates, as they were seen as essential for driving economic growth. Allowing financial institutions and investments to proceed as conglomerates wished naturally led to issues of excessive debt, over-investment, and excess capacity, ultimately resulting in a national bankruptcy crisis. This leads to the conclusion that presidents who fail to recognize the changes of the times and the perceptions of the general public will fail.

Following the IMF crisis, Korean society experienced severe economic polarization. While the Grand National Party continued to defend conglomerates and the vested interests, the Democratic Party appealed to the public with a focus on ordinary citizens, ultimately leading to the election of Roh Moo-hyun as president. However, President Roh Moo-hyun was also trapped in the simplistic thinking that the economy could not be driven without mobilizing conglomerates, and he made decisions contrary to the expectations of the general public, alongside neoliberal policies. While they elected a 'president of the common people,' the public watched the nation's finances drift without regard for the circumstances of ordinary citizens, leading them to place new hopes on candidate Lee Myung-bak in the 17th presidential election. However, when President Lee Myung-bak pursued policies centered on large corporations, the public once again withdrew their support from the government.

From her presidential candidacy announcement to her nomination acceptance speech, President Park Geun-hye advocated for economic democratization. However, after her election, she established creative economy as the basic direction of her policy and ultimately approached conglomerates, encouraging them to establish creative economy research centers. This problem also arose fundamentally because she did not properly contemplate or recognize the circumstances of the era in which she was elected president and proceeded with national administration. A president elected without a firm vision for national governance cannot succeed.

The roots of presidential failures stemming from an inability to read the changes in the times and public perception can be traced back to before democratization. President Park Chung-hee also operated the government with the same logic in the 1970s, despite the circumstances being entirely different from the 1960s. He was consumed by the thought, 'I lifted them out of absolute poverty, so how can they resist me?' and attempted to control the changing public perception through force. The situation worsened as public demands went unmet and control over the judiciary, power institutions, and the media persisted. Misfortune began to sprout as he attempted to create a system that could be operated at the president's convenience. Presidents should have been more dedicated to their fundamental task of reading the changes in the times and public perception, rather than focusing on power institutions.

III. See the Forest and Draw the Big Picture

Since democratization, Korea has become fully open to the outside world. Communication with the international community has also become a daily occurrence. Consequently, the basic qualifications a president must possess have begun to stand out in several areas. Expertise and a thorough understanding of key concepts across various fields such as economy, foreign affairs and security, science and technology, education, and public diversity are becoming increasingly important. The recent COVID-19 pandemic serves as a prime example requiring presidential insight into the times. Previously, 'defending against external enemies and protecting the nation' was considered the sole domain of security. However, now the scope of security has expanded to the point where even a virus can cause national disaster, requiring awareness and response. A president is needed who can contemplate 'how to achieve 'internal security' against viruses.' Similarly, the current economic difficulties that have driven self-employed individuals into crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic demand different prescriptions than the financial crises experienced multiple times in the past.

The trend of knowledge and information also acts as a new variable. The public's level of knowledge has increased, and access to information has significantly improved, making it more difficult for presidents and governments to deceive the public as they did in the past. There is no longer a need to particularly emphasize universal values such as fairness or justice. However, focusing too much on trivial matters is also not an appropriate strategy. What is demanded of the president is insight and expertise to grasp the trends of the times. No one expects the president to know everything. Regardless of domestic or international affairs, one must be able to see the forest and draw the big picture. ■

■ Author: Kim Chong-in_ The architect behind the creation and enactment of Article 119, Clause 2 of the Constitution, 'Economic Democratization.' This clause is known as the 'Kim Chong-in Clause' and is the only provision in our constitution with a nickname derived from a specific individual's name. While serving as Senior Secretary for Economic Affairs at the Blue House in 1990, he was called a 'firefighter' for stabilizing real estate prices overnight by mandating the sale of tens of millions of pyeong of non-business land held by conglomerates. He was also called a 'versatile secretary' for resolving diplomatic issues such as the normalization of relations between South Korea and China, going beyond the realm of economic advisory. He is called the 'Forrest Gump of Yeouido' for serving five terms as a proportional representative lawmaker in the Democratic Justice Party, the Democratic Liberal Party, the Millennium Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party, specializing in fiscal and tax affairs. He earned accolades such as 'Dr. K' and 'Economic Grandpa' for reviving struggling political parties as the interim leader of the Saenuri Party and the interim leader of the Democratic Party, leading them to victory in consecutive general elections. He is also known as the 'politician with the most posthumous appointments' for being mentioned as a prime ministerial candidate by various governments, regardless of their political leaning (conservative or progressive). Born in Seoul in 1940, he earned a doctorate in economics in Germany after graduating from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. His political career began during his tenure as a professor at Sogang University, stemming from the issue of implementing value-added tax, and he contributed to the introduction of employee stock ownership plans and social health insurance. He is the grandson of Gain Gaein Kim Byeong-ro, a national lawyer during the Japanese colonial period and the first Chief Justice of the Supreme Court who laid the foundation for Korea's judicial system, and is known as a 'living witness to Korean political history.'

■ Managed and Edited by: Jeon Ju-hyun _ EAI Researcher

Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | jhjun@eai.or.kr