[Global NK Commentary] A New Exploration in North Korea-Japan Relations

[Editor's Note]

Amidst the ongoing discussions surrounding the abduction issue, the maximum obstacle in North Korea-Japan relations, the Japanese government has shifted from its previous hardline stance to a more conciliatory approach for dialogue. Lee Ki-tae, Head of the Peace Studies Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, argues that the most crucial factor for improving North Korea-Japan relations at this juncture is the restoration of South Korea-Japan relations. This could create an opportunity for North Korea-Japan dialogue within the Korean Peninsula peace process in the short term, and influence the normalization of North Korea-Japan diplomatic relations in the long term. Therefore, it is a critical time for South Korea to actively play the role of a 'mediator' to facilitate mutual dialogue. The author emphasizes that the South Korean government's proactive efforts in this regard can become a key factor in normalizing North Korea-US relations and North Korea-Japan relations, and in establishing a new peace and security order in the Northeast Asian region.

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The Biggest Hurdle in North Korea-Japan Relations: The Abduction Issue

The Japanese government prioritizes three key issues in its relations with North Korea: the nuclear and missile issue, and the abduction issue. The North Korean nuclear and missile issue is largely dependent on negotiations between North Korea and the United States. The abduction issue is directly handled by the Japanese government, whose fundamental stance is to resolve the abduction issue in conjunction with the international community.

During the period of dialogue facilitated by the Korean Peninsula peace process in 2019, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shifted from his previous hardline stance on the abduction issue to proposing an unconditional summit with Chairman Kim Jong-un. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who succeeded Abe's North Korea policy, has also expressed on several occasions his willingness to meet with Chairman Kim Jong-un without conditions. Here, 'conditions' refer to the resolution of the 'abduction issue,' Japan's top diplomatic priority. However, North Korea's position on the abduction issue is that the issue has been fully resolved, and it cannot engage in dialogue as long as Japan raises the abduction issue.

In September 2020, North Korea, through a researcher at its Foreign Ministry-affiliated Institute of Japanese Studies, asserted that the issue was "already irrevocably and completely resolved." The same assertion was made in a statement regarding the UN symposium on the abduction issue, held online by the Japanese government on June 29, 2021. In essence, North Korea maintains that the abduction issue was resolved with the North Korea-Japan Pyongyang Declaration between Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Chairman Kim Jong-il in 2002. The Japanese government's consistent response to this is that North Korea's claims are 'unacceptable.' In other words, Japan maintains that the abduction issue is an ongoing, unresolved matter.

The 2002 North Korea-Japan Pyongyang Declaration and the 1965 Framework

Although progress in negotiations between North Korea and Japan regarding the abduction issue remains stalled, the Japanese government's shift from its previous hardline stance to a dialogue-oriented approach on North Korean issues, in line with the Korean Peninsula peace process, holds significant meaning. This suggests that if North Korea is willing to engage in dialogue with South Korea and the United States, conditions are ripe for dialogue with Japan as well.

At present, a crucial factor for improving North Korea-Japan relations is the restoration of South Korea-Japan relations. Since 2019, South Korea and Japan have experienced a series of events, including Supreme Court rulings on the comfort women and forced labor issues, Japan's strong reaction to these rulings, and subsequent export control measures imposed by Japan on South Korea. To this day, South Korea-Japan relations remain at their worst since the normalization of diplomatic relations in 1965.

The Japanese government, in particular, has criticized the forced labor ruling as potentially undermining the 1965 framework for the normalization of diplomatic relations between South Korea and Japan. Meanwhile, the South Korean government respects the judiciary's rulings while seeking solutions to restore diplomatic relations with Japan. The 1965 framework shares a common context with the 2002 Pyongyang Declaration between North Korea and Japan. This is because, similar to the 1965 framework, the 2002 Pyongyang Declaration primarily involved North Korea's renunciation of claims and Japan's provision of economic cooperation funds.

The future restructuring or modification of the 1965 framework between South Korea and Japan could also impact the 2002 Pyongyang Declaration. Ultimately, pending issues between South Korea and Japan, such as historical grievances, may be discussed in future North Korea-Japan relations. Therefore, the manner in which South Korea-Japan relations improve could, in the short term, create an opportunity for North Korea-Japan dialogue within the Korean Peninsula peace process, and in the long term, influence the normalization of diplomatic relations between North Korea and Japan.

The Korean Peninsula Peace Process, the Tokyo Olympics, and the Liberation Day Speech

Despite the severe COVID-19 situation in Japan, the Tokyo Olympics (July 23 - August 8) concluded successfully. While there was significant interest in whether North Korea would participate in the Tokyo Olympics, the North Korean government decided not to participate, citing COVID-19. In addition to COVID-19, Japan's decision to extend sanctions against North Korea was also a significant factor in North Korea's decision not to participate.

Most notably, the Moon Jae-in administration regretted North Korea's absence. In 2021, the Moon administration attempted a policy shift to break the deadlock in North Korea-US dialogue and inter-Korean relations. Alongside efforts to improve South Korea-Japan relations, it sought to utilize the Tokyo Olympics as a venue for multilateral summit diplomacy as part of the Korean Peninsula peace process. First, in his New Year's press conference in 2021, President Moon Jae-in acknowledged the 2015 comfort women agreement and considered attending the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics, although this was ultimately thwarted by an inappropriate remark from a minister-general at the Japanese Embassy in Seoul. Before North Korea's decision not to participate, the Moon administration aimed to use the Tokyo Olympics as an opportunity to restart the Korean Peninsula peace process, which had stalled since the Hanoi Summit in 2019. Specifically, it sought to realize multilateral summit diplomacy for peace on the Korean Peninsula by having Chairman Kim Jong-un, President Joe Biden, and President Xi Jinping attend the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics.

In his Liberation Day speech on August 15, 2021, President Moon Jae-in reaffirmed the 'two-track' principle of separating future cooperation from historical issues and stated that the door for dialogue remains open for joint responses to global threats such as bilateral issues, COVID-19, and the climate crisis. This indicates a forward-looking stance on dialogue while upholding the victim-centered principle concerning historical issues. Above all, it aimed to maintain relations with Japan to restart the Korean Peninsula peace process without attempting a drastic change to the 1965 framework, and to 'manage' Japan so that it would not play a negative role in the process of implementing North Korea policy and resuming North Korea-US summits.

Maintaining the 1965 Framework and Exploring New Avenues in South-North Korea-Japan Relations

In the Moon Jae-in administration's Korean Peninsula peace process, inter-Korean relations, North Korea-Japan relations, and South Korea-Japan relations have proceeded on a bilateral basis and have yet to show tangible results. While it is reported that the abduction issue was conveyed to North Korea at the request of the Japanese government during inter-Korean and North Korea-US summits, there has been no direct response from North Korea.

At this juncture, it is necessary to explore new avenues for resolving North Korea-Japan relations by actively involving South Korea within the framework of 'South-North Korea-Japan' relations. South Korea must seek an active 'mediator' role in North Korea-Japan dialogue, encompassing inter-Korean relations and South Korea-Japan relations. To achieve this, it is essential to maintain the 1965 framework with Japan and to forge a new peace order through South Korea's new and independent role. It is a critical time for the South Korean government to strive to extend the efforts to normalize North Korea-US relations and North Korea-Japan relations, and to expand them into a new peace and security order in the Northeast Asian region, by improving South Korea-Japan relations through the maintenance of the 1965 framework and developing inter-Korean relations. 

■ Lee Ki-taeHead of the Peace Studies Division, Korea Institute for National Unification. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from Yonsei University (2002) and a Ph.D. in Political Science from Keio University, Japan (2012). He served as a standing member of the National Unification Advisory Council (2019-2021). His main research areas include Japanese security policy, East Asian international relations, and North Korea-Japan relations.

■ Managed and Edited by : Min Ji-yoon EAI Director of External Affairs

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