[Global NK Commentary] Sino-North Korean Relations: Realities and Challenges on the Occasion of the Chinese Communist Party's 100th Anniversary and the 60th Anniversary of the Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship

[Editor's Note]

The Sino-North Korean relationship, forged in blood and brotherhood, remains strong on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party and the 60th anniversary of the Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship. However, Professor Lee Dong-ryul emphasizes that to understand the reality of Sino-North Korean relations, one must consider the U.S. variable beyond bilateral phenomena. This analysis examines the U.S. factors present in the congratulatory messages exchanged between the two countries and the challenges they pose for Sino-North Korean relations.

Sino-North Korean relations are drawing renewed attention in 2021, marking the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party and the 60th anniversary of the Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance (hereinafter referred to as the Treaty of Friendship). Following Kim Jong Un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of North Korea's congratulatory message and wreath for the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party's founding on July 1, President Xi Jinping and General Secretary Kim exchanged congratulatory messages on July 11, the 60th anniversary of the signing of the bilateral treaty, reaffirming and emphasizing the importance of bilateral relations. Historically, exchanges and communications between leaders have held significant meaning in Sino-North Korean relations, more so than in any other bilateral relationship. In the current situation, where mutual exchanges and summits between leaders, let alone high-level officials, have been virtually suspended due to COVID-19, the exchange of congratulatory messages between the leaders of China and North Korea holds significant meaning in itself.

The Strategic Intentions Behind North Korea's 'Congratulatory Message' Emphasizing 'Socialist Solidarity' with China

Through their congratulatory messages, the leaders of North Korea and China reaffirm that the Treaty of Friendship is "an important political and legal foundation for the long-term friendly cooperation between the two countries." They also emphasize that "over the past 60 years, the two countries have contributed to the development of the socialist cause and the defense of peace and stability in the region (Asia) and the world," highlighting the development of traditional friendly relations built on blood and brotherhood. On the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Friendship, both countries exchanged congratulatory messages with essentially conventional and ritualistic content, similar to previous occasions.

However, the current domestic and international circumstances under which both North Korea and China are celebrating their centennial and 60th anniversaries are unique. The confrontation and competition between the U.S. and China are at their peak, and the North Korean nuclear negotiations are at an impasse. North Korea faces isolation and economic hardship, while China is preoccupied with its domestic political agenda amidst the COVID-19 crisis and in anticipation of the 20th Party Congress in 2022. Given the complex and exceptional situation on the Korean Peninsula, the messages conveyed by the congratulatory messages may differ, even if they use similar language to previous ones. Sino-North Korean relations are gradually weakening their character as an independent variable, while becoming more clearly a dependent variable influenced by the U.S. variable and U.S.-China relations. Therefore, to approach the reality of Sino-North Korean relations more closely, it is essential to consider the U.S. variable beyond bilateral phenomena. Indeed, subtle but significant changes related to the 'U.S. factor' can be detected in the messages conveyed by the congratulatory messages.

Notably, Kim Jong Un's congratulatory message contains a significant message that differs from previous ones. North Korea's message states that "the challenges and obstructive schemes of hostile forces are becoming more malicious," directly and harshly targeting the U.S., using explicit and strong language not found in previous congratulatory messages. Kim Jong Un had already launched a similar verbal attack against the U.S. in his congratulatory message for the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, stating that "the malicious slander and all-out pressure by hostile forces against the Chinese Communist Party are merely the death throes of a dying beast." A front-page editorial in North Korea's Rodong Sinmun also argued that "the reality of imperialists openly colluding to isolate and crush socialist countries demands that the two countries, North Korea and China, unite in accordance with the spirit and principles of the treaty and further develop their friendly cooperative relations." This appears to be Kim Jong Un's active endorsement and support of Xi Jinping's statement in his speech commemorating the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party: "We will never allow foreign forces to bully, oppress, or enslave us. Anyone who harbors such illusions will have their heads broken and blood flow against the Great Wall of steel built with the flesh and blood of 1.4 billion Chinese people."

While remaining indifferent to the Biden administration's offer of dialogue, Kim Jong Un is vehemently criticizing the U.S. and emphasizing traditional friendship and 'friendly cooperation' with China. North Korea is explicitly expressing its support for China, which is in confrontation with the U.S., thereby showcasing the solidarity between North Korea and China. It is particularly noteworthy that North Korea frames the U.S. pressure as a confrontation between imperialism and socialism, advocating for socialist solidarity between North Korea and China.

There may be various strategic considerations behind North Korea's particular emphasis on cooperation with China. First, the renewed emphasis on 'socialist solidarity' with China may stem from an intention to consolidate the foundation of North Korea's socialist system, using the occasion of the Chinese Communist Party's 100th anniversary. Facing the COVID-19 crisis and economic difficulties, North Korea may prioritize consolidating its internal system over rashly engaging in unpredictable and uncertain dialogue with the U.S. Second, if immediate benefits such as sanctions relief and economic assistance cannot be expected through dialogue with the U.S., North Korea may recognize China as its only viable alternative. In the short term, to address urgent needs, it would have been necessary to strengthen cooperative relations with China to secure possible cooperation and support from China. Third, it is also possible that this is a form of 'feinting to the east while attacking to the west' (聲東擊西) strategy. By flaunting and strengthening cooperation with China, North Korea aims to consolidate its backing while simultaneously provoking the U.S., thereby preparing for future negotiations with the U.S.

The Meaning and Limitations of 'Congratulatory Diplomacy' in the Transformation of Sino-North Korean Relations

In contrast, China, compared to North Korea, relatively de-emphasizes the 'U.S. factor' in its congratulatory diplomacy. President Xi Jinping made no mention or allusion to the U.S. in his congratulatory message for the 60th anniversary of the treaty, unlike Kim Jong Un. Furthermore, Chinese state-run media, while introducing Kim Jong Un's congratulatory messages for the 100th anniversary and the 60th anniversary of the treaty, did not publicly disclose the harsh language targeting the U.S. Of course, the 'U.S. factor' is also an important variable behind China's emphasis on 'friendly cooperative relations' with North Korea. For China, 'securing allies' is an important diplomatic strategy to counter the Biden administration's offensive. The full support of North Korea, a fellow socialist country, is also significant for China, especially during its crucial political milestone of the 100th anniversary of the Party's founding.

However, for China, North Korea is a 'strategically complex and delicate ally,' serving as both a strategic asset and a burden. For China, the Korean Peninsula, including North Korea, automatically gains geopolitical significance when conflicts with maritime powers like the U.S. escalate. On the other hand, North Korea's nuclear crisis and economic difficulties frequently cause instability along China's border. In particular, China's strategic concerns grew in 2018 as it witnessed the potential for North Korea to rapidly improve relations with the U.S. While China does not wish to expand its conflict front with the U.S. due to the North Korean (nuclear) issue, it also needs to maintain relations with North Korea to manage the risks of North Korea's regime crisis, provocations, and potential improvements in North Korea-U.S. relations, as well as rapid changes in the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

Although North Korea is expressing its cooperation with China very unusually through congratulatory diplomacy, China is not actively responding to North Korea's overtures and shows no signs of changing its existing stance on North Korea (nuclear issue). In essence, China and North Korea share a common motivation for cooperation in responding to the U.S. However, as evidenced by the congratulatory diplomacy, their specific methods of utilizing the 'U.S. factor' remain divergent. China's North Korea policy is already influenced by structural factors rather than bilateral relations. Therefore, the phenomenon of showcasing socialist solidarity between China and North Korea through congratulatory diplomacy does not necessarily signify a new strategic closeness in Sino-North Korean relations.

Nevertheless, North Korea's isolation and economic difficulties are worsening, nuclear negotiations are at an impasse, and the U.S. and China are engrossed in power competition, creating a situation where a breakthrough in the unstable Korean Peninsula is urgently needed. While the resumption of North Korea-U.S. and inter-Korean dialogue would be ideal, if that is not immediately feasible, we must also consider the possibility that even a limited new development in Sino-North Korean relations could serve as a temporary breakthrough. Progress in Sino-North Korean relations could alleviate North Korea's isolation and economic hardship, and potentially stimulate dialogue between North Korea and the U.S., thereby contributing to mitigating instability on the Korean Peninsula. Of course, efforts to seize the temporary breakthrough created by Sino-North Korean relations as an opportunity to open the door for inter-Korean dialogue will be paramount. ■

■ Lee Dong-ryulDirector of the Center for Chinese Studies at EAI and Professor at Dongduk Women's University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Peking University's School of International Studies. He previously served as President of the Association for Modern Chinese Studies and is currently a policy advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. His main research areas include China's foreign relations, Chinese nationalism, and ethnic minority issues. His recent works include "China's Strategy and Role in the Denuclearization and Peace Process on the Korean Peninsula," "The Evolution and Current Implications of China's Foreign Policy Discourse Since the 1990s," "A Geoeconomic Approach and Geopolitical Dilemmas of Xi Jinping's 'Maritime Power' Initiative," "Deciphering China’s Security Intentions in Northeast Asia: A View from South Korea," and "China's Territorial Disputes" (co-authored).

• Managed and Edited by : Pyo Kwang-min Senior Researcher, EAI
  
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