[EAI Commentary] The Significance of the 2017 French Presidential Election and the Prospects for European Integration

[Editor's Note]

In the runoff of the French presidential election held on May 7, Emmanuel Macron, a 39-year-old political newcomer, achieved an overwhelming victory against Marine Le Pen, a candidate with far-right leanings. With the election of Macron, who holds the most pro-European stance among the candidates, the EU appears to have narrowly averted another major crisis. Although Germany, another pillar of the EU, is scheduled to hold its general election in September, the absence of a threat like Le Pen suggests that the EU can operate more stably going forward, predicts Cho Hong-sik, Professor at Soongsil University. However, he adds that stable governance in France will only be possible if Macron secures victory in the general election in June.

There are three main reasons why the French presidential election garnered attention in Korea. Firstly, France, along with the United States and the United Kingdom, has been at the forefront of the history of global democracy. Therefore, French politics plays a pace-making role for world democracy. Last year, the UK held a referendum deciding to leave the European Union (Brexit), and the US elected Trump, a populist candidate advocating "America First." This year, the possibility of Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front winning the French presidential election was higher than ever, drawing global attention.

Secondly, France, along with Germany, is an engineer driving the train known as the European Union. Although Germany has recently emerged as the center of Europe, the twin engines of Germany and France still provide momentum to the EU. While Britain's departure from the EU would be a significant shock, the sinking of the EU ship would be a distinct possibility if France were to leave. The far-right candidate Marine Le Pen declared her intention to withdraw from the Eurozone if elected and pledged to renegotiate the terms of EU membership entirely.

Finally, Korea and France are politically synchronized nations, partners with similar democratic rhythms in the era of globalization. Both countries, which have adopted a five-year presidential system, have held their presidential elections in the same year since 2002. This marks the fourth time that France has elected its president in the spring and Korea in the winter. With Korea's impeachment crisis, the seasonal difference has now disappeared, achieving perfect synchronization where both countries move according to the same political cycle.

The French presidential election this year can be considered a significant turning point in all three aspects mentioned above. As a pace-setter for democracy, it represents a symbolic turning point halting the global trend of nationalist populism that emerged in 2016. While populist surges were already halted in the Austrian presidential election and the Dutch general election, the fact that a centrist force (66%) decisively defeated a far-right candidate (34%) in the presidential runoff of a representative democracy like France leaves a stronger impression. If Le Pen symbolized nationalism, the winner, Emmanuel Macron, a former elite official who worked at Rothschild Bank, represented open globalization.

As one of the twin engines of European integration, Macron's victory in the French presidential election holds significant meaning. Among the 11 French presidential candidates, Macron held the most pro-European stance. He argued for maintaining the Euro and strengthening Europe's governance structure through institutional enhancements. He announced a pledge to appoint an economic government and ministers to manage the Euro at the European level and to elect a parliament to democratically oversee them. Amidst widespread skepticism towards European integration due to the refugee crisis and Brexit, the election of an active Europeanist as French president is a crucial outcome of this election.

Regarding political synchronization with Korea, it is noteworthy that in 2017, public rejection of established politics reached an extreme in both countries. In Korea, the president was impeached through an unprecedented citizen-led "candlelight" movement, and in the snap election, a candidate of change won by an overwhelming margin with a high voter turnout of 77%. In France, Macron was elected the youngest president in history, and even more surprisingly, he is a complete political novice. He has never been elected to public office before. Furthermore, he advanced to the runoff, defeating candidates from the center-left Socialist Party and the center-right Republican Party with "En Marche!", a political organization hastily formed a few months prior for the presidential race, and ultimately achieved an overwhelming victory against the far-right candidate Le Pen.

Of course, it would be a mistake to be solely swayed by hindsight. Examining the process of the French presidential election reveals that the concerns people have are far from simple. Although a party advocating populism did not come to power in France, its influence has strengthened more than ever. If the 2002 runoff appearance of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the father, was an anomaly, his daughter Marine Le Pen's runoff appearance in 2017 was anticipated long ago. This signifies that the far-right has established itself as a strong pillar of French politics. Moreover, the runoff vote share doubled from 17% in 2002 to 34% in 2017.

In relation to European integration, Macron's victory signifies the election of a pro-European path. However, in the first round of voting, a remarkable eight out of eleven candidates held anti-European stances. Their combined votes accounted for a majority. This demonstrates the extent to which skepticism towards European integration has spread in France. Both the far-right Le Pen and the far-left Mélenchon argued that the current European system is detrimental to French national interests and advocated for a shift towards nationalism and protectionism. While Hamon of the Socialist Party and Fillon of the Republican Party held pro-European positions in practical terms, they were also quite reserved about further integration.

Macron achieved a miracle by entering politics as an independent and being elected president. His success in mobilizing support by advocating for the center, within the strong left-right political structure of France, is also unique. In this presidential election, he capitalized on the opportunity created by President Hollande of the moderate left Socialist Party abandoning his re-election bid and a strong left-leaning candidate, Hamon, emerging. Macron garnered support from the right-wing faction of the Socialist Party. Furthermore, he received support from the left-wing of the Republican Party after the moderate right candidate Fillon became embroiled in a corruption scandal involving his family. In other words, Macron's success is the result of a very special political situation in 2017.

Macron's presidential victory in French politics signifies only half a success. To govern stably, he must achieve victory in the general election to be held in June. It remains uncertain whether he can replicate the success achieved in the personality-driven presidential election in the party-centric general election. Macron has declared his intention to expand the "En Marche!" organization to "La République En Marche" and field candidates in all 577 constituencies. It remains to be seen whether a miraculous political force will emerge following the miraculous president. It is important to note that although the French general election, like the presidential election, involves a runoff, its detailed rules differ. While the presidential election features a runoff between two candidates, in the general election, any candidate who receives over 12.5% of the vote in each constituency can advance to the runoff. This means that more than three candidates may compete in the runoff. This is why electoral and coalition-building strategies are more crucial than in the presidential election. Over the next month, diverse and complex alliances and realignments are expected to occur in French politics during the preparation for the general election.

Following the French general election in June, the German general election in September will be another crucial election determining the fate of European integration. Prior to the French presidential election, German Chancellor Merkel met with major candidates but notably excluded Le Pen. While she did not endorse any specific candidate, she clearly expressed her opposition to a particular one. Ahead of the runoff, she declared her support for Macron. Thus, France and Germany actively intervene in each other's domestic politics and influence them. Whether Merkel will continue to govern in Germany, or a government led by the Social Democratic Party or the Christian Democratic Union will be formed, or the current grand coalition will persist, will be a significant variable in future relations with the Macron administration. Furthermore, the personal chemistry between French and German leaders has historically played a crucial role in European integration. De Gaulle-Adenauer, Giscard d'Estaing-Schmidt, and Mitterrand-Kohl formed the core of a close Franco-German relationship, regardless of their political leanings, and through them, European integration advanced significantly.

From the perspective of the European Union, the major crisis has passed with the conclusion of the French presidential election. Regardless of which party governs in Germany or who becomes Chancellor, there is no risk factor comparable to Le Pen. Furthermore, with the election of Macron, a pro-European, predictable, and stable figure as president, European governance is likely to become more robust. If Macron secures a stable base of support in the French general election and a stable majority capable of exercising leadership is formed in the German general election, Europe may regain momentum for integration despite Brexit. ■

Author

Cho Hong-sik_ Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Soongsil University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Sciences Po (Paris Institute of Political Studies). His main research areas include international political economy, European regional studies, and the politics of identity. His representative works include "One Europe: The History and Policies of the European Union," "European Integration and the Future of the 'Nation'," "I Don't Like the Same Things: Professor Cho Hong-sik's Stories of French Culture," and "Twelve Scenes of Paris."