[Ha Young-sun Column] Kim Jong-un's New Year's Address and Nuclear Test: A Trailer for a 'Brilliant Blueprint'

EAI in the Media [Weekend S] 'Kim Jong-un's Blueprint is from the 19th Century'

Ha Young-sun_ Chairman of EAI, Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Washington and served as a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University, Director of the Institute for International Affairs, Director of the Center for American Studies, and President of the Korean Peace Studies Association. He is currently a member of the Presidential National Security Advisory Council and a civilian member of the National Unification Advisory Council. His works include 'Ha Young-sun's International Politics Columns 1991-2011,' 'Complex World Politics: Strategy, Principles, and a New Order,' 'Korea-Japan New Era and Symbiotic Complex Networks,' and 'World Politics of Transformation.'

The New Year's address by First Chairman Kim Jong-un has been delivered. And less than a week later, the fourth nuclear test was conducted. As expected, the self-serving domestic and international interpretations are causing confusion. To properly understand the New Year's address and the nuclear test, one must go beyond a superficial analysis of the vocabulary and content of the delivered message and delve into the mind and heart of North Korea's policy decision-makers. One must carefully interpret how they perceive the current situation and with what momentum they are striving to steer the tide in their favor. Only then can one finally judge the impact of North Korea's efforts on the current situation.

The most significant characteristic of this year's New Year's address is that it serves as a trailer for the 7th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea, which will be held for the first time in 36 years. This is evident from the militant slogan for the Party and the people in 2016: 'Let us usher in the golden age of building a strong state in the year of the 7th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea.' The address further states, 'The 7th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea will proudly sum up the achievements our Party has made in revolution and construction under the wise leadership of the great leaders and unfold a brilliant blueprint for hastening the final victory of our revolution.' Therefore, this year's New Year's address is both the blueprint for 2016 and a preview of the future blueprint for the 7th Party Congress.

Domestic Capabilities: Economic, Political, Military, and Cultural Power

The 2016 New Year's address briefly summarizes last year's achievements and then, following the framework of the three major revolutionary capabilities—North Korea, South Korea, and the international arena—which has formed the basic perspective of North Korean policymakers since the 1960s, begins by outlining the blueprint for domestic capabilities. First, it emphasizes, 'We must concentrate all our efforts on building an economically powerful nation, bringing about a new transformation in economic development and improving the people's living standards.' Among these, it states, 'Our Party regards the issue of the people's livelihood as the foremost national priority among ten thousand national affairs.' This contrasts with the 2014 New Year's address, which stated, 'Strengthening national defense is the foremost of all national affairs, and the dignity of the nation and the happiness and peace of the people lie on the mighty barrel of a gun.'

However, the blueprint does not deviate significantly from the existing theory of four major strongholds: economy, political ideology, military, and culture. Alongside building an economically powerful nation, it concurrently emphasizes the socialist political ideology stronghold, the nation's defense capabilities, and the highest level of culture. Furthermore, to usher in the 'cultural renaissance of the Workers' Party era' in the year of the 7th Party Congress, it stresses collectivist competition and self-reliance as the primary principle for building a socialist powerful nation.

Unification Capabilities: Upholding Independence, Peace, and National Grand Unity

The New Year's address then proceeds to outline the blueprint for 'the reunification of the fatherland and the improvement of inter-Korean relations.' This blueprint reiterates the three principles of anti-foreign independence, peace, and national grand unity that have been upheld since the July 4th Joint Communiqué. First, it emphasizes that 'we must independently resolve the issue of inter-Korean relations and national reunification in accordance with the nation's resistance and demands, rejecting foreign interference,' and 'the South Korean authorities must stop the shameful act of parading internal national issues to outsiders and begging for (cooperation).' Second, it argues that 'preventing the danger of war on the Korean Peninsula and safeguarding peace and security are fundamental conditions for achieving national reunification,' and therefore, 'the United States and the South Korean authorities must cease their dangerous war exercises and halt military provocations that escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula.' Third, it states that 'if the South Korean authorities genuinely desire improved inter-Korean relations and peaceful reunification, they should not pursue futile regime confrontation... but should demonstrate their willingness to respect and faithfully implement the three principles of national reunification and the June 15th and October 4th Declarations,' and 'anyone who truly desires national reconciliation and unity, peace and reunification, should sit down with us and frankly discuss national and unification issues.' To properly interpret this blueprint, one must note, first, that North Korea's strategy towards the South still consists of a three-front war—diplomatic, military, and political; and second, that 'anyone' mentioned by North Korea does not mean 'anybody' but rather refers to those who follow North Korea's path of independence and peace. Therefore, it is necessary to view and navigate inter-Korean relations in 2016 not as a simple one-front war emphasizing either pessimism about military tension or optimism about reconciliation and cooperation, but as a triple complex war. Furthermore, it is essential to understand the meaning of 'anyone' as used by North Korea and develop appropriate countermeasures.

International Capabilities: Peace Agreement with the U.S. and Nuclear Tests

The New Year's address concludes by presenting the blueprint for strengthening international capabilities, asserting that the United States must abandon its 'hostile policy toward North Korea' and 'transform the Armistice Agreement into a peace agreement, thereby removing the danger of war on the Korean Peninsula, easing tensions, and creating a peaceful environment.' It also states, 'Our Party and the government of the Republic will further strengthen solidarity with the world's peoples who oppose aggression, war, domination, and subjugation, and will expand and develop friendly cooperative relations with all countries that respect our sovereignty and treat us with friendship.'

In a statement on October 17th of last year, the spokesperson for North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs argued, 'There are only two ways to guarantee peace on the Korean Peninsula. One is the Cold War method of strengthening our self-defensive nuclear capabilities, centered on nuclear weapons, to deter the escalating U.S. nuclear threat and war provocations... The other way is to establish genuine and lasting peace based on trust by the United States abandoning its hostile policy toward North Korea and agreeing to conclude a peace agreement with us.' The statement warned that if the U.S. evades concluding a peace agreement, North Korea would have no choice but to enhance its 'unlimited nuclear deterrence.' In response to the U.S.'s negative reaction, which questions North Korea's sincerity, North Korea reiterated the same points in a statement by its Foreign Ministry spokesperson on December 16th, reaffirming its complete lack of intention to abandon its nuclear arsenal unless a peace agreement is concluded with the U.S.

On January 6, 2016, North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test. The North Korean government statement declared, 'As long as the U.S.'s heinous hostile policy toward North Korea is not eradicated, it is absolutely impossible for us to halt or abandon our nuclear development, even if the sky falls. Our military and people will ceaselessly strengthen our just nuclear deterrence, which guarantees the future of the Juche revolutionary cause for ten thousand years, in terms of both quality and quantity.' However, contrary to expectations, the more North Korea strengthens its nuclear arsenal, the darker its security and economic future will become.

A 19th-Century Blueprint with No Place to Stand

The 'brilliant blueprint' that North Korea is presenting through its 2016 New Year's address is more 19th-century than 21st-century. In the 19th century, East Asian countries, in order to survive encounters with Western powers, had to build modern nation-states by strengthening their self-defense capabilities internally and pursuing independent forces externally. As a result, Japan succeeded, Korea failed, and China experienced turmoil. In the 21st century, Asia-Pacific nations are busy drawing up new, suitable blueprints for the 21st century, which maintain the strengths of 19th-century blueprints while compensating for their weaknesses. The protagonists of these new blueprints are beginning to take the form of network states, combining modern nation-states with networks. The stage itself is evolving into a complex stage that weaves together emerging cultures, ecological balance, advanced technological knowledge, and co-governance, supplementing the existing paradigms of wealth and power and their limitations. The performances on this stage are also creating a new, suitable terrain map for the 21st century, blending competition, cooperation, and co-evolution. In this context, it will be difficult for North Korea to find a place for its 19th-century blueprint.

Develop a 21st-Century 'New Suitable Blueprint'

The 'brilliant blueprint' that North Korea should present at the 7th Party Congress, as detailed in EAI's 'North Korea 2032: Co-evolutionary Strategy for Advancement' (2010), must be developed in the following two stages. In the first stage, North Korea must build four major strongholds based on economic development and denuclearized security through a triple new survival strategy. Additionally, it must accept inter-Korean relations as national cooperation rather than class cooperation to promote North Korea's economic development. Finally, it must maximally utilize advanced capitalist countries like the United States and Japan, as well as advanced socialist countries like China, transcending the outdated distinctions between socialism and capitalism. However, for North Korea to survive successfully in the new 21st-century Asia-Pacific order, efforts in the first stage alone will be insufficient. Therefore, it must develop a new transformation blueprint that fits the new century's suitable terrain map, which corresponds to the second stage.

For North Korea to draw a new blueprint that aligns with the 21st-century suitable terrain map and build a 21st-century emerging nation, instead of its current 'brilliant blueprint,' its own proactive efforts must come first. Then, South Korea, with the assistance of relevant neighboring powers such as the United States, China, Japan, and Russia, must strengthen sanctions and deterrence against North Korea's wrong choices, such as nuclear development, while simultaneously pursuing co-evolutionary efforts in new North Korea policies that can support North Korea's right choices, such as the parallel pursuit of denuclearization, security, and economic development. ■

The '[EAI Ha Young-sun Column]' is a commentary series planned to explore practical alternatives through the analysis and outlook of EAI Chairman Ha Young-sun (Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University) on major domestic and international security and foreign policy issues. Please cite the source when quoting.

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