The Uncertainty of US-China Competition Triggered by the COVID-19 Crisis: Where is South Korea-China Relations Headed?

Editor's Note

The East Asia Institute (EAI, President Son Yeol) presents 'EAI Audible Commentary' as a content series to make expert commentary on major domestic and international issues more accessible and convenient. This 'EAI Audible Commentary' features commentary by Lee Dong-ryul, Director of the EAI China Research Center and Professor at Dongduk Women's University, who analyzed China's foreign policy amidst the global crisis triggered by COVID-19. As developed countries, including the US and Europe, have struggled with epidemic prevention and control following the global spread of COVID-19, China, which faced criticism for initial concealment and inadequate response, is now benefiting from a rebound effect. China is actively working to improve its image through proactive international support and public relations campaigns, and is actively leveraging the opportunities arising from the global crisis caused by COVID-19 to seek its relative rise. However, the author points out that while China may gain relative benefits, it still faces limitations in establishing itself as an independent power by presenting new global standards and values. Furthermore, the author predicts that mutual distrust between the US and China will deepen due to the COVID-19 situation, leading to heightened competition and conflict. However, it is anticipated that both countries, due to their domestic challenges, will pursue strategies to secure their spheres of influence through 'proxy containment and competition' by leveraging alliances and partnerships, rather than direct confrontation. In this context, South Korea faces pressure for binary choices, and the author argues that South Korea must strengthen its strategic flexibility in the current transitional international order to secure its independent strategic value and position.

EAI Audible Commentary Script

Hello. This is EAI, the East Asia Institute. Since the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic, developed countries that seemed unshakable are now struggling with epidemic prevention and control, while one country is showing a faster-than-expected recovery and seeking a rebound. That country is China. In this 'EAI Audible Commentary,' through the commentary by Lee Dong-ryul, Director of the EAI China Research Center and Professor at Dongduk Women's University, who analyzed China amidst the global crisis, we will explore China's future foreign policy at the crossroads of crisis and opportunity due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and forecast South Korea's response. Now, let's begin!

As the US and Europe and other developed countries have failed in epidemic prevention and control amidst the global spread of COVID-19, China is enjoying the effect of relative evaluation. The backlash against the Communist Party regime, which began to emerge after controversies over initial concealment and inadequate response, is now transforming into internal cohesion, relative confidence, and regime support. With this positive momentum, it appears that China is making a dramatic turnaround, seizing new opportunities for relative rise amidst the global crisis. China is focusing on improving its image by diluting the narrative of responsibility for COVID-19 through fierce public relations campaigns in the international community and actively highlighting its contributions. It is also seeking to revitalize its economic recovery by providing medical supplies and support to key partner countries. While China is publicly offering cooperation and assistance to the world, the dispatch of important medical support teams is concentrated in pro-China countries and key Belt and Road Initiative partner countries, suggesting a complex strategic objective of not only improving its image through epidemic diplomacy but also revitalizing the Belt and Road Initiative (一帶一路).

In fact, China's leveraging of global crises as opportunities for advancement is not unfamiliar to us. China has historically seized opportunities for 'relative rise' during major global crises, leading to its current position. For example, China secured strategic time and space for its rise by capitalizing on US weaknesses during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and indeed achieved the effect of relative rise. The intention to transform the crisis caused by COVID-19 into a fourth opportunity for relative rise is evident behind China's active engagement in international cooperation and support. Having achieved relative rise by overcoming crises, China is now in a position to pursue independent rise by presenting differentiated global standards and values. However, China appears to be preoccupied with escaping the narrative of responsibility for the 'crisis originating from China.' Despite an unexpectedly rapid recovery, the Xi Jinping administration remains mired in domestic issues such as regime security and economic development, and thus is unable to lead international cooperation to overcome a crisis affecting all of humanity. China has not demonstrated the capacity or willingness to present a vision acceptable to the international community and design a new international order. China still appears to have clear limitations in securing independent and absolute global leadership beyond relative rise.

Gaining the upper hand in US-China relations is also not easy. The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating changes in global supply chains and further eroding internationalism. Amidst this, US-China relations are also expected to see intensified competition and conflict rather than cooperation, as economic interdependence weakens and national centrism strengthens. Even amidst the global pandemic crisis, the US and China, the two major powers, are engaged in a fierce public relations battle over responsibility, rather than seeking cooperation. In this process, the US's offensive regarding the fragility of the Communist Party regime is a red line that China finds difficult to accept. In the midst of the blame game over COVID-19 responsibility, the US and China have reaffirmed their fundamental differences in systems, races, and ideologies, and mutual distrust has expanded. Distrust and antipathy towards the US within China have reached their highest point in the 41 years since diplomatic relations were established, and some assessments suggest that bilateral relations have reached their worst state.

Given that it is difficult for the political leaders of both the US and China to yield or compromise for domestic political reasons, they will inevitably continue their fierce public relations battle. However, on the other hand, as the need for both countries to focus on domestic issues increases, it is also difficult to create situations of acute confrontation. The Xi Jinping administration, facing political and economic difficulties, must prioritize regime security, making it a rational choice to avoid expanding the front of conflict with the United States. China is finding it difficult to fulfill the terms of the Phase 1 trade agreement with the US due to the COVID-19 crisis, and the US is likely to continue to exert pressure on China in other ways and in other areas using this as a pretext, placing China in a defensive position. What China fears most is the formation of an anti-China international coalition led by the US, which would then be used to pressure and contain China. The Trump administration, facing a presidential election, will not ease its 'blame China' offensive. However, since winning an election cannot be achieved solely by making China a 'scapegoat,' it will not be easy to simply escalate confrontation and conflict with China. Therefore, it is likely that the US and China will avoid direct confrontation as much as possible and engage in a diplomatic war to secure their spheres of influence by rallying their respective allies and partners and putting them on the front lines. This will likely involve a competition to expand their spheres of influence by emphasizing the Indo-Pacific strategy (FOIP) and the Belt and Road Initiative, with incentives and pressure being applied concurrently to rally intermediate countries in the region.

The repercussions of the acute confrontation between the US and China during the COVID-19 phase are likely to become more severe and unstable for South Korea and the Korean Peninsula. The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented event, and the post-COVID international order will be even more unpredictable due to its highly fluid nature. If the 'proxy containment and competition' between the US and China intensifies in the post-COVID-19 era, South Korea, due to its unique geopolitical location, will face pressure for unwanted binary choices more than any other country. While it is true that South Korea currently has few alternatives other than strengthening strategic flexibility to maximize national interests, the reality is that there are not many options. Nevertheless, it is important to constantly seek new opportunities within the given situation. It is necessary to seize the transitional period in the international community triggered by COVID-19 as a diplomatic golden time and strive to secure South Korea's independent strategic value and position amidst the great powers.

The period of weakened or absent great power leadership due to COVID-19 may be prolonged. In this case, the role of middle powers like South Korea, or the solidarity among middle powers, may relatively come to the fore. South Korea needs to place greater emphasis on forming middle power alliances and conduct its diplomatic activities in preparation for the changing situation. In particular, South Korea has secured a unique asset in its 'Korean-style' response to COVID-19, which achieved epidemic prevention effectiveness while maintaining openness and transparency, differentiating it from developed countries. By providing this experience asset in epidemic prevention to the international community, South Korea should gradually enhance its strategic value and standing. Of course, overconfidence and excessive praise for the currently popular 'Korean model' should be guarded against. South Korea needs to cautiously explore its role in building international solidarity and cooperation mechanisms based on international attention. First, internally, it must accumulate the capacity to play a certain international role even in the post-epidemic period. Second, it is necessary to refine the 'Korean model' through an indirect approach where the private sector, particularly in the healthcare and IT industries, takes the lead with government support. Through this, it is a time when efforts are needed to gradually expand the scope of epidemic prevention cooperation, form an international cooperation system, and enhance South Korea's independent strategic value and standing.

It is a time when we need to gather collective wisdom more than ever to turn crises into opportunities for advancement. This has been Yoon Jun-il with 'EAI Audible Commentary.' ■

The original commentary by Professor Lee Dong-ryul can be found via the "Commentary Download"below.

■ Author: Lee Dong-ryul_ Director of EAI China Research Center and Professor at Dongduk Women's University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Peking University's School of International Studies, served as President of the Association for Modern Chinese Studies, and is currently a policy advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. His main research areas include China's foreign relations, Chinese nationalism, and minority issues. Recent publications include "China's Strategy and Role in Korean Peninsula Denuclearization and Peace Process," "Evolution and Current Implications of China's Foreign Policy Discourse Since the 1990s," "Geoeconomic Approach and Geopolitical Dilemmas of Xi Jinping's 'Maritime Power' Initiative," "Deciphering China’s Security Intentions in Northeast Asia: A View from South Korea," and "China's Territorial Disputes" (co-authored).

■ Responsible Editor: Yoon Jun-il, EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 203) I junilyoon@eai.or.kr

'EAI Audible Commentary' is a content series designed to make in-depth analyses of major domestic and international issues by experts more accessible and convenient. Please cite the source when quoting. EAI is an independent research institution independent of any partisan interests. The claims and opinions presented in reports, journals, and books published by EAI are not related to EAI and solely represent the views of the respective authors.