[EAI Special Commentary Series] China and the COVID-19 Shock

“China at a Crossroads: Facing Crisis and Opportunity Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic, Where is it Heading?”

EAI is publishing a total of four special commentaries titled “China and the COVID-19 Shock,” featuring expert analyses and forecasts on China, which stands at a crossroads of crisis and opportunity due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

1. Lee Dong-ryul: The Impact and Outlook of COVID-19 on China's Foreign Relations and Korea-China Relations [Read Report]

2. Choi Pil-soo: Will the COVID-19 Pandemic Strengthen China's Economic Standing?[Read Report]

3. Han Nam-suk: COVID-19 and the Reactions of Chinese Society[Read Report]

4. Yang Gap-yong: The Dual Nature of the Party-State System in Flux due to COVID-19[Read Report]

The COVID-19 pandemic heralds an era of unpredictable chaos and transformation in the international order, with China at the epicenter. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime, facing its centenary in 2021, has been brought to a crossroads of crisis and opportunity over the past four months, revealing both its strengths and weaknesses due to COVID-19. China is recovering more quickly than expected from the initial shock and criticism surrounding the outbreak, benefiting from the perceived failures of COVID-19 responses in developed countries like the United States and Europe. It appears to be undergoing a dramatic reversal, moving away from debates about the crisis of the CCP regime and instead seizing new opportunities for relative ascent.

However, China's politics, economy, society, and foreign relations remain uncertain and unstable, facing a critical test alongside the uncertainties of COVID-19. The Xi Jinping administration has prioritized restoring its national image and the legitimacy of the CCP regime, which were damaged by the COVID-19 crisis, and regaining systemic stability. While the Xi Jinping administration has outwardly regained political stability, excessive public expectations and nationalism could become a double-edged sword, questioning the legitimacy of the CCP regime, depending on the recovery of the economy and the restoration of its international image and trust.

China is seeking to restore its damaged image through international epidemic prevention support and cooperation, while also exploring new opportunities for 'relative ascent.' China has previously benefited from the effects of 'relative ascent' amidst the post-Cold War international order and the crises faced by the United States over the past 30 years. However, this time, it cannot escape responsibility as the 'crisis originated in China.' Notably, China has already entered the threshold of becoming a superpower, making it difficult to rely solely on the effects of relative ascent. How China will respond to the intensifying debates over responsibility following the COVID-19 crisis, and whether it can demonstrate global leadership in driving international cooperation to overcome this shared human crisis, will be crucial points to watch in determining China's future in the post-COVID international order. South Korea may also find itself at an unexpected historical juncture. If the current situation, where major powers are preoccupied with their own survival and fail to exercise global leadership, prolongs, South Korea will need to gather wisdom to redefine its role and position as a middle power.

EAI's Special Commentary Series “China and the COVID-19 Shock” analyzes China in the context of its foreign relations, economy, society, and politics amidst the COVID-19 crisis.

Chapter 1 (Lee Dong-ryul) analyzes the diplomatic challenges China faces due to the COVID-19 shock and forecasts China's future foreign relations and Korea-China relations. China is evolving with multifaceted objectives through its COVID-19 diplomacy, including improving its national image, expanding its role in the international community, and revitalizing the Belt and Road Initiative. China seeks to transform the COVID-19 crisis into an opportunity for its relative ascent. China remains focused on its own stability and ascent, and its ability to demonstrate global leadership in driving international cooperation to overcome this shared human crisis is limited. Mistrust and competition between the U.S. and China have deepened due to the COVID-19 crisis. Nevertheless, as both countries must focus on domestic issues for the time being, competition to expand their respective spheres of influence is expected to continue rather than direct confrontation. South Korea needs to exercise strategic flexibility as a middle power in the transitional phase of the international community brought about by the COVID-19 crisis, and thereby secure its own strategic value and position.

Chapter 2 (Choi Pil-soo) examines whether China can achieve relative ascent amidst global crises as in the past, by analyzing its economic constitution and policy response capabilities, including its employment and industrial structures, fiscal conditions, monetary policy, political conditions, and risk factors associated with private enterprise debt. Various domestic and international economic indicators suggest the possibility of China's economy recovering earlier than other countries amidst the COVID-19 crisis. However, the retreat of globalization following the COVID-19 crisis and the WTO reforms pursued by the United States and Europe are expected to pose significant challenges to China's economic system reforms and economic recovery.

Chapter 3 (Han Nam-suk) compares the COVID-19 crisis with the SARS crisis to analyze the continuity and changes in the Chinese authorities' crisis response methods and public sentiment. China has historically suppressed critical public opinion by scapegoating and creating heroes through personnel changes when it failed to conceal crises. While the inadequacy of China's initial response has been significantly diluted due to the failures of developed countries in epidemic prevention, public sentiment within China remains internally unstable. Whether the Chinese government can quell public unrest through social policies addressing the economic downturn remains a key issue.

Chapter 4 (Yang Gap-yong) analyzes how the dual nature of the party-state system, where undemocratic control and efficient mobilization coexist, was fully revealed during China's response to COVID-19. The authoritarian party-state system failed in its initial response, but the argument that strong control was ultimately more efficient gained traction. Contrary to external perceptions, COVID-19 has not led to rapid political changes within China. Instead, a 'rally effect' centered around China's system and leadership has emerged. On the other hand, despite efforts to enhance adaptability through governance innovation within the party-state system, distrust in the system itself has grown more than ever. In particular, the spread of discontent and distrust through social media, which individuals access autonomously, has exposed certain limitations of Communist Party control. Furthermore, the long-standing challenge for the Chinese Communist Party system of resolving the weaknesses in the vertical control-oriented central-local relationship, exposed by COVID-19, and finding some form of 'Pareto optimality' between the two, has been re-emphasized.

Contributors

■ Lee Dong-ryul: Director of the EAI China Research Center and Professor at Dongduk Women's University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Peking University's School of International Studies, served as President of the Association for Modern Chinese Studies, and is currently a member of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Policy Advisory Committee. His main research areas include China's foreign relations, Chinese nationalism, and minority issues. Recent publications include “China's Strategy and Role in the Denuclearization and Peace Process on the Korean Peninsula,” “The Evolution and Current Implications of China's Foreign Policy Discourse Since the 1990s,” “A Geoeconomic Approach and Geopolitical Dilemma of Xi Jinping's 'Maritime Power' Initiative,” “Deciphering China’s Security Intentions in Northeast Asia: A View from South Korea,” and “China's Territorial Disputes” (co-authored).

■ Yang Gap-yong: Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science with a specialization in Chinese government and politics from Fudan University and has served as a HK Professor at Kookmin University's Center for Chinese Humanities and Social Sciences and as Head of Research at Sungkyunkwan University's Institute of Chinese Studies. His recent translated works include <Modern Chinese Politics> (co-translated), and his authored works include <The Legitimacy of China's Rule and Elite Politics>.

■ Choi Pil-soo: Associate Professor at the Department of International Studies, Sejong University. He holds an MBA from Hitotsubashi University ICS and a Ph.D. in Economics and Management from Tsinghua University. He previously worked as the head of the China team at the Korea Development Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP). His main research areas include China's economic system transformation, corporate governance in China, and the Belt and Road Initiative.

■ Han Nam-suk: He holds a Ph.D. in Chinese Studies from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies and worked as a researcher at the Center for East Asian Studies at Sungkonghoe University before becoming a professor in the Department of Chinese Language and Culture at the University of Seoul. His main research areas include regime change and popular resistance in China, the intellectual community, and the Tiananmen Square incident. His major authored and translated works include <The Political Science of Mourning: Death and Memory in Modern and Contemporary East Asia> (co-authored), <Modern China Through the Lens of Cities> (co-authored), and <China Changes Capitalism> (co-translated).

■ Managed and Edited by: Yoon Jun-il EAI Researcher

              Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 203) junilyoon@eai.or.kr

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