[EAI Midterm Evaluation of the Moon Jae-in Administration] IV. Issue Briefing - Midterm Evaluation of the Moon Jae-in Administration's Foreign and Security Policy Through Public Opinion: Direction of North Korea Policy for the Realization of a Peaceful and Prosperous Korean Peninsula

Editor's Note

This issue brief is based on the results of EAI's midterm evaluation survey of the Moon Jae-in administration and discussions from a policy forum, authored by Baek Jin-kyung, EAI Research Fellow, and Park Won-gon, Professor at Handong Global University. According to the survey, the Moon administration's North Korea policy received the lowest evaluation with 4.5 points (out of 10), among its overall foreign policies (4.5-5.0 points). Notably, unstable inter-Korean relations were identified as the most significant threat facing Korea by 49.8% of respondents. The authors suggest that the Moon administration's proposed virtuous cycle of inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula needs re-examination. To this end, they emphasize the need for a balanced and multifaceted North Korea policy based on EAI's proposed four-pronged complex strategy for North Korea (Engagement, Internal Transformation, Sanctions, Deterrence).

※ The following is an excerpt from this issue brief.

Perceptions of Korean Security and North Korean Threats

While opinions are somewhat divided regarding South Korea's overall security situation, unstable inter-Korean relations were identified as the most significant threat facing Korea by a relatively high 49.8% (Figure 2). The most significant threat from neighboring countries was overwhelmingly North Korea's nuclear and missile development by the Kim Jong-un regime (Figure 3). This result, higher than the militarization of Japan's Abe administration (54.6% in Figure 3) and the United States' Trump administration's 'America First' policy, demonstrates the extent to which North Korea's nuclear and missile development is perceived as a threat by the public.

<Figure 2> The Most Significant Threat Facing South Korea (1st and 2nd Rank)

<Figure 3> The Most Significant Threat from Neighboring Countries Facing South Korea (1st and 2nd Rank)

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Pessimistic Outlook on the Possibility of Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula

The majority of respondents in this public opinion survey indicated that while denuclearization would eventually be realized, it would take a considerable amount of time (33.3%) (Figure 4). The response that denuclearization would be realized in the short term was low at 2.3%. Furthermore, the responses that denuclearization would ultimately not be realized (18.2%) and that denuclearization was not expected to be realized from the outset (20.7%) were also relatively high, indicating that public expectations for immediate denuclearization of North Korea are considerably low.

<Figure 4> Possibility of Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula

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Public Evaluation of the Moon Jae-in Administration's North Korea Policy

Upon its inauguration, the Moon Jae-in administration set the goal of a 'peaceful and prosperous Korean Peninsula' and has consistently made efforts toward denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula by attempting dialogue with North Korea. However, despite pursuing North Korea policy as a major state agenda item, it received the lowest evaluation with 4.5 points, with no significant difference compared to other policies pursued by the Moon administration, such as Japan policy (5.0 points), U.S. policy (4.6 points), and China policy (4.6 points) (Figure 6).

<Figure 6> Midterm Evaluation of the Moon Jae-in Administration (10-point scale)

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Future Tasks for a Truly Peaceful and Prosperous Korean Peninsula

The assertion of a virtuous cycle of inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula needs re-examination. The government's policy of promoting inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation to drive North Korean denuclearization faces limitations in two aspects. First, as long as denuclearization by North Korea does not precede, various measures for inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation are restricted due to existing economic sanctions. Furthermore, this policy is excessively dependent on North Korea. Progress can be seen in areas such as separated family reunions and inter-Korean military confidence-building measures even under sanctions, but these are impossible without North Korea's cooperation. In a situation where North Korea continuously excludes South Korea, as evidenced by its condemnation of South Korea in its April policy speech and de facto declaration of severed inter-Korean relations, the South Korean government's unilateral assertion of inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation leads to negative consequences such as the weakening of its negotiating leverage with North Korea and a decline in international credibility.

This phenomenon is also reflected in the public opinion survey, indicating that the public believes that for denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula, economic sanctions must be maintained in conjunction with cooperation with North Korea. Thus, for a truly peaceful and prosperous Korean Peninsula, it is necessary to pursue a balanced and multifaceted approach in the latter half of the Moon Jae-in administration, based on EAI's proposed four-pronged complex strategy for North Korea, consisting of Engagement, Internal Transformation, Sanctions, and Deterrence, rather than unconditional inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation.

■ Author: Baek Jin-kyung_ Research Fellow at EAI. Holds a Master's degree in International Relations from the University of Warwick, UK. Currently, as a researcher responsible for North Korea/Security Studies and Asian Democracy Studies at EAI, she is in charge of the project to build and operate the English comprehensive website 'Global North Korea' on complex North Korea strategies and the Asia Democracy Research Network project. Her main research areas include North Korea studies, international relations, and international security. Her recent publications include North Korea's Biological and Chemical Weapons and the Path to Complete Denuclearization (2019, EAI Commentary/Global NK Commentary).

■ Author: Park Won-gon_ Professor of International Relations in the Department of International Studies and English, Handong Global University. Advisor to the Ministry of National Defense and the Ministry of Unification. Holds a Ph.D. in Diplomacy from Seoul National University. His main research areas include Northeast Asian international relations, security theory, diplomatic history, North Korea studies, and the ROK-U.S. alliance. His major works include "Evaluation of the Obama Administration's Foreign and Security Strategy and Prospects for the New Administration's Foreign Policy" (2016) (co-authored), "A Study on the Theory of Just War: A Comparison with Pacifism and Realism" (2016), "Changes in and Prospects for the East Asian Security Order: A South Korean Perspective" (2016), "A Theoretical Review and Critical Analysis of South Korea’s Proactive Deterrence Strategy" (2015), and "Future Vision for the ROK-U.S. Alliance: Focusing on Command Structure Reform" (2014).

■ Responsible for and Edited by: Baek Jin-kyung EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) I j.baek@eai.or.kr

EAI Issue Briefings are a series designed to provide a forum for experts from various fields to present in-depth analyses and policy recommendations on major domestic and international issues. Please cite the source when quoting. EAI is an independent research institution, independent of any partisan interests. The claims and opinions presented in reports, journals, and books published by EAI are not affiliated with EAI and solely represent the views of the respective authors.

Attachment: IssueBriefing_MoonAdministrationMidtermEvaluationNorthKorea.pdf