[Issue Briefing] Russia's Eastern Policy: Will This Time Be Different?

Editor's Note

This issue brief is a product of the "Think Tank Joint Research" initiative, led by Yeoshijae (與時齋) and involving major domestic think tanks, and was originally published on the Yeoshijae website on October 25, 2017.

Russia is actively seeking to develop the Russian Far East and strengthen exchanges and cooperation with East Asian countries, as evidenced by its hosting of the second Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in September. These efforts appear to be yielding significant results, particularly through economic cooperation and nuclear technology exchange agreements with not only China but also Japan, India, and various Southeast Asian nations. This can be seen as part of Russia's broader strategy, termed the Grand Eurasia initiative, aimed at maximizing its geopolitical and geo-economic position and identity across Europe and Asia. However, major US-based international affairs research institutions, which fundamentally perceive Russia as a European nation and competitor, appear to have relatively little interest in Russia's eastward policy. This relative lack of interest may stem from the perception that Russia's historical engagement with Asia has been intermittent and opportunistic, and that its recent actions are similarly contextualized.

From the main text

"The third Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) was held in Vladivostok from September 6-7. Initiated in 2015 under the leadership of Russia, or more precisely President Vladimir Putin, the term 'Eastern' in the forum's name carries a dual meaning, referring to both Russia's eastern regions and East Asia. It embodies a strategy to simultaneously revitalize the economy of the Russian Far East and enhance (economic) cooperation with East Asian countries. This can be likened to Russia's version of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aiming to develop its underdeveloped western regions while also securing economic influence over neighboring countries. President Putin's pledge to significantly streamline the process for granting Russian citizenship to foreign investors who invest over ten million dollars in the Russian Far East is also in line with this vision."

"The aspect of Russia's foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region that most interests the United States is the Sino-Russian relationship. In the short term, the primary concern is the extent to which the two countries can advance cooperation in areas of economy, investment, and development, particularly within the framework of the BRI, and whether this can effectively neutralize Western sanctions against Russia."

"US experts argue that there are several reasons why Russia's global strategy is fundamentally bound to reveal its limitations. The most immediate consideration is the limitation of material capabilities. It is self-evident that Russia cannot independently contend with the United States and China in terms of economic power. Militarily, apart from its nuclear arsenal, Russia has lagged behind its traditional competitors in military technology and weapons development and acquisition since the Cold War. While the events in Ukraine [Euromaidan] and the annexation of Crimea demonstrated that Russia is by no means a negligible military adversary, the nature of those conflicts, which largely resembled guerrilla warfare or so-called hybrid warfare, means that its conventional warfare capabilities have not been truly tested."

"Unless its fundamental foreign policy shifts from its current approach—which prioritizes securing influence in Europe and the Near Abroad by concentrating its limited capabilities—and instead views relations with Asian countries as more than just leverage to strengthen those existing spheres of influence, a genuine partnership with Asian nations will remain elusive. The initiatives like the Eastern Economic Forum, regardless of their actual sincerity, are easily interpreted as temporary measures to circumvent Western economic sanctions. Without consistent political, economic, and human investment in the Asia-Pacific region for at least a decade or more, it will be difficult for Russia to shed its image as an 'opportunistic exploiter' in Asia, an assessment that has persisted since the late 19th century."

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