[Issue Brief] The Emergence of the Trump Administration and the Challenges for the ROK-U.S. Alliance

[Editor's Note]

The security environment in Northeast Asia, including the Korean Peninsula, is becoming increasingly uncertain. Particularly, as it has been over two months since the Trump administration took office, and U.S. foreign policy is still taking shape amidst uncertainty, various predictions abound regarding the future development of the security environment in Northeast Asia, making it difficult to ascertain a clear direction. Amidst predictions of escalating competition and conflict between the U.S. and China, North Korea continues to increase its nuclear and missile threats. Therefore, efforts are needed to adjust the ROK-U.S. alliance, which is central to South Korea's security, to the changing security environment. Above all, it must be possible to effectively deter North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, and delicate consideration is required to avoid excluding China as a strategic adversary. Furthermore, efforts to mutually lead the ROK-U.S. alliance and U.S. global strategy are also required. This article was reconstructed by the author based on discussions held at the ROK-U.S. Alliance session of the EAI Korean Security Roundtable, planned for the new year of 2017. Through this article, the author diagnoses the emergence of the Trump administration and the changing security environment on and around the Korean Peninsula, and discusses the challenges the ROK-U.S. alliance must address to adapt to the new era.

[Excerpt]

Although two months have passed since the inauguration of the Trump administration, the core keyword determining U.S. domestic and foreign policy remains "uncertainty."

The Trump administration has set goals such as U.S. economic growth, recovery of the middle class's economy, revival of manufacturing, and reduction of economic disparities. The problem is that while the issues of the U.S. economy stem from various causes, the solutions are primarily sought in external economic relations. As is already known, President Trump has exerted pressure on major economic partners such as China, Germany, and Japan under the banner of fair trade, and these economic policies directly impact foreign policy and security. The Trump administration is likely to pursue changes in foreign policy and security while continuously pursuing economy-centric policies until satisfactory results are achieved in the domestic economy.

The foreign policy and security line is showing a division between ideologically driven figures advocating for "America First" and the mainstream current following the traditional foreign policy and security line of the U.S. Republican Party. While the Trump administration's America-centric ideology, represented by Steve Bannon, has a significant impact on foreign policy and security, key military figures in the Department of Defense and the National Security Council (NSC) represent the existing mainstream foreign policy and security perspective.

From South Korea's perspective, the U.S. foreign policy and security strategy is crucial for our national interest. The U.S.'s global security strategy, East Asia strategy, strategy toward China, economic strategy, and strategy for the urgent issue of North Korea's nuclear program will have a decisive impact on the future of the ROK-U.S. alliance.

There is a perception that Asia is being relatively neglected. However, the view that the pivot to Asia strategy emerged from the structural necessity of U.S. economic recovery and maintaining geopolitical leadership is gaining strong traction within the U.S., suggesting that Asia's importance will be maintained regardless of President Trump's personal views. Indeed, while personnel appointments are not yet complete, officials in the Trump administration's Asia policy have emphasized the need for an active interventionist policy toward Asia during Secretary of State Tillerson's visit to South Korea, China, and Japan.

If extensive efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue do not yield short-term solutions, long-term efforts are needed to strengthen the ROK-U.S. alliance in various ways... Regarding the ROK-U.S. alliance, South Korea must continue to consider its role in maintaining stability and balance in East Asia. Continuous strategic cooperation with the U.S. is necessary to advance regional security amidst the Trump administration's uncertain East Asia strategy. If the U.S. itself does not rationally recognize the impact of the Trump administration's strategy of pursuing narrow interests on East Asia, accurate judgment and recommendations from allied nations are essential.

[Lead Author]

Jeon Jae-sung_ Director of the EAI Center for International Relations Research and Professor at Seoul National University. He graduated from the Department of Diplomacy at Seoul National University and earned a Ph.D. in Political Science from Northwestern University. He previously served as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Sookmyung Women's University. His major works include "Is Politics Moral?", "East Asian International Politics: From History to Theory", "A Critical Examination of Postmodernism and Realism on Constructivist International Relations Theory", "Theoretical Research on the Emergence of Modernity in European International Politics", and "The Rise of Great Powers and Response Mechanisms: Theoretical Analysis and European Cases."