Recommendations for North Korea Policy Over the Next Five Years

[Editor's Note]

To diagnose the changing international landscape and key issues and to suggest desirable directions for South Korea's foreign policy in 2017, EAI convened a roundtable discussion with experts from various fields. As part of this initiative, a discussion was held with invited experts on inter-Korean relations and North Korea policy. This paper, based on the discussions from the inter-Korean relations session, was primarily authored by Professor Kim Byung-yeon of Seoul National University. North Korea issues have always been the top priority in South Korea's security and diplomatic considerations. Nevertheless, since the division of the peninsula, inter-Korean relations, despite their ups and downs, have failed to improve the situation of tension and conflict, and the threat of armed conflict from North Korea has not been alleviated in the least. Despite international sanctions and condemnation, North Korea's nuclear and missile threats have continuously increased, and it is difficult to employ effective policy measures to break the deadlock in inter-Korean relations. Furthermore, the security situation in Northeast Asia is becoming increasingly challenging, with regional conflicts escalating. Measures to manage such difficult circumstances and, moreover, to transform the deteriorated inter-Korean relations are not devised in an instant. Based on an understanding of the current North Korea and surrounding situation, wisdom is needed to formulate and consistently pursue policies with a long-term perspective. To this end, it is necessary to depoliticize North Korea policy so that it is not used for domestic politics or partisan disputes, and efforts should be made to institutionalize this. Based on this, by pursuing consistent policies with domestic and international consensus and understanding, the foundation for North Korea's self-initiated change must be laid.

[Excerpt from the Main Text]

The Kim Jong-un regime is stable in the short term but unstable in the medium to long term...... Kim Jong-un's reign of terror, which executed Jang Song-thaek and hundreds of high-ranking officials, is effective in forcing the loyalty of North Korea's elite group. Therefore, it is projected that Kim Jong-un will, at least in the short term, serve as the apex of power and oversee key domestic and foreign policies...... A significant reason for the medium- to long-term instability of the North Korean regime lies in the marketization of the North Korean economy...... "Bottom-up marketization," which socialist states cannot fully control, is a potential threat to Kim Jong-un.

The importance of South Korea has relatively diminished for North Korea. North Korea's nuclear issue has become one of the most critical issues for the United States and China to address, and the power to control it lies not with South Korea but with the United States and China...... North Korea will likely attempt a one-time gamble targeting the United States to gain recognition as a nuclear state and conclude a peace treaty, thereby blocking the possibility of external military intervention against North Korea. Therefore, for the time being, North Korea is likely to pursue a strategy of "Korea passing."

The most significant problem with South Korea's North Korea policy is its politicization. With the division between conservatives and progressives on North Korea issues, politicians have tended to use North Korea policy to mobilize public opinion or votes rather than for its effectiveness...... This has weakened the effectiveness of North Korea policy and, at the same time, created a vicious cycle where the subsequent government presents a different North Korea policy from the previous one. Some might say, "Conservatives live in the dream of North Korean collapse, and progressives live in the dream of sunshine." Conservatives who mistakenly believe that North Korea can easily collapse because its regime is very unstable, and progressives who believe that all problems can be solved through inter-Korean cooperation and that Kim Jong-un's mind can and should be changed, are both perched on the fragile threads of fantasy and ideology. These fantasies and ideologies are more likely to exacerbate the problems rather than solve them.

Policy Recommendations for the Next Five Years

1. Declare the depoliticization of North Korea policy and institutionalize it.

2. In the short term, focus on sanctions while keeping the possibility of dialogue open.

3. In the medium to long term, encourage North Korea to change through its own mechanisms by promoting marketization and trade openness.

4. Consistently and concretely explain and persuade the United States and China regarding our North Korea policy.

5. Explain the reality of North Korea and the complexity of the North Korea issue to the public.

[Primary Author]

Kim Byung-yeon_ Professor of Economics at Seoul National University. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Oxford, UK, and has served as a professor at the University of Essex, UK, and as a visiting professor at Kyoto University and Hitotsubashi University in Japan. His main research areas include North Korean economy, economics of transition in Russia, Eastern Europe, and China, and applied econometrics.

EAI Issue Briefings provide diagnosis and analysis of major domestic and international issues to foster correct understanding and offer recommendations for desirable policy directions. EAI strives to provide a balanced perspective and create a platform for constructive policy discussions to generate ideas beneficial to our society.