Public Opinion Brief No. 141: Survey of Korean, Chinese, and Japanese Intellectuals on President Park Geun-hye's Liberation Day Address and Prime Minister Abe's Statement

Jointly conducted by EAI and Genron NPO

Survey of Korean, Chinese, and Japanese Intellectuals on President Park Geun-hye's Liberation Day Address and Prime Minister Abe's Statement

Project Introduction

On August 15, 2015, President Park Geun-hye announced her stance on Korea-Japan relations in her "August 15th Commemorative Address" marking the 70th anniversary of liberation. Prime Minister Abe also released his "Statement on the 70th Anniversary of the End of the War" on August 14, prior to the anniversary of the war's end. To gauge the assessments and opinions of Korean, Chinese, and Japanese intellectuals regarding these announcements by the two leaders, EAI conducted a joint survey with Japan's Genron NPO.

Survey Overview

1. Assessment of the two leaders' announcements commemorating August 15th

- Regarding Prime Minister Abe's statement, China's assessment was more positive than Korea's: 5.7% in Korea, 21.4% in China.

- In Japan, 45.6% assessed it positively, and 41.7% assessed it negatively.

- In Korea, there was a perception that Prime Minister Abe's statement contained little reflection on the aggressive wars in Asia.

- President Park Geun-hye's Liberation Day address received positive evaluations from nearly half of respondents in both Korea and Japan: 48.4% in Korea and 56.0% in Japan.

■ Prime Minister Abe's "Statement on the 70th Anniversary of the End of the War" was a matter of intense interest, involving diplomatic strategies and the Northeast Asian geopolitical landscape of various countries, including Korea, China, and Japan, even before its release. EAI and Genron NPO surveyed how Korean, Chinese, and Japanese intellectuals assessed the announcements made by the leaders of Korea and Japan commemorating August 15th. Firstly, it was found that most Chinese and Korean intellectuals were aware of Prime Minister Abe's "Statement on the 70th Anniversary of the End of the War," released one day before the August 15th anniversary. In Korea, 96.9% (154 respondents) were aware of the statement's release, while in China, 91.4% (308 respondents) were aware.

■ Regarding the assessment of Prime Minister Abe's statement, nearly half of the respondents in Japan, 45.6% (23.8% assessed it positively + 21.8% assessed it generally positively), evaluated it positively. However, respondents who assessed it negatively reached 41.7% (12.4% generally did not assess it positively + 29.35% did not assess it positively), indicating that public opinion in Japan was divided, with roughly equal proportions holding positive and negative views on Prime Minister Abe's statement.

■ When asked about Prime Minister Abe's statement in Korea and China, only 5.7% (9 respondents) in Korea assessed it positively, while the majority of respondents (132 respondents, 83.0%) assessed it negatively. In China, respondents who assessed it negatively exceeded half at 56.9%, but those who assessed it positively were 21.4%, indicating that China's assessment was more positive than Korea's.

■ This difference between China and Korea was similarly reflected in the survey results regarding the question of whether Prime Minister Abe's statement included reflections on the aggressive wars in Asia. The majority of respondents in Korea (141 respondents, 88.7%) responded that the reflections were insufficient, whereas in China, 20.8% (70 respondents) answered that the reflections on aggressive wars were sufficient, indicating that a greater proportion of respondents viewed the statement's content positively compared to Korea's 2.5% (4 respondents).

[Figure 1] Awareness of Prime Minister Abe's "Statement on the 70th Anniversary of the End of the War" (%)

[Figure 2] Assessment of Prime Minister Abe's "Statement on the 70th Anniversary of the End of the War" (%)

[Figure 3] Whether Prime Minister Abe's Statement Included Reflection on Aggressive Wars in Asia (%)

■ On August 15th, the day after Prime Minister Abe's statement, President Park Geun-hye announced her position on Korea-Japan relations in her "Liberation Day Address." The reactions from Korean and Japanese participants in the survey were similar. In Korea, 48.4% assessed it positively, and in Japan, 56.0% assessed it positively. However, in Korea, 31.5% (50 respondents) assessed it negatively, which is approximately double the rate of 15.0% (46 respondents) in Japan, indicating that a higher proportion of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with President Park Geun-hye's stated position on Korea-Japan relations.

[Figure 4] Assessment of President Park Geun-hye's "Liberation Day Address" on Korea-Japan Relations (%)

2. Impact of the Korean and Japanese leaders' announcements on bilateral relations

1) Prime Minister Abe's Statement

- It will help improve relations between their country and Japan: 6.3% in Korea, 29.3% in China.

- In Japan, 27.7% believed it would help Korea-Japan relations, and 36.1% believed it would help China-Japan relations.

■ Among the intellectuals surveyed in each country, the proportion of Korean respondents who answered that Prime Minister Abe's statement would help improve relations between their country and Japan was the lowest. More specifically, in Korea, not a single respondent answered that it would be helpful; only 6.3% (10 respondents) thought it would be generally helpful, while 74.9% (34.0% generally thought it would not be helpful + 40.9% thought it would not be helpful) believed it would not be helpful. In contrast, although the majority of Chinese respondents believed it would not help improve relations, 29.3% (5.0% thought it would be helpful + 24.3% generally thought it would be helpful) thought it would be helpful.

■ When asked about the impact of Prime Minister Abe's statement on improving relations between Japan and Korea and China, the highest proportion of respondents in Japan, 35.1% (102 respondents), answered "neither," indicating that many respondents were withholding their judgment or prediction. The proportions of respondents who answered that it would help improve relations with Korea and China, and those who answered that it would not help improve relations, were similar at 25.4% and 25.1%, respectively. However, when considering the responses that it would help improve relations only with Korea or only with China, the proportion of respondents who expected a positive impact on improving relations was slightly higher. Among these, only 2.3% responded that it would help improve Korea-Japan relations, whereas 10.7% responded that it would help improve China-Japan relations, suggesting that more respondents perceived Prime Minister Abe's statement as having been made with greater consideration for China than for Korea.

[Figure 5] Impact of Prime Minister Abe's Statement on Improving Relations Between His Country and Japan (%)

[Figure 6] Impact of Prime Minister Abe's Statement on Improving Relations Between His Country and Korea/China (%)

2) President Park Geun-hye's Liberation Day Address

- It will help improve Korea-Japan relations: 43.4% in Korea, 49.6% in Japan.

■ The survey results regarding whether President Park Geun-hye's "Liberation Day Address" would help improve Korea-Japan relations were similar to the assessment of the previous address. In Korea, 43.4% (5.7% would help + 37.7% would generally help), and in Japan, 49.6% (9.5% would help + 40.1% would generally help) of respondents believed it would help improve relations between the two countries. Conversely, the proportion of respondents who answered that it would not be helpful was 29.6% in Korea (18.3% would generally not help + 11.3% would not help), and only 14.0% in Japan (3.6% would generally not help + 10.4% would not help). In Japan, similar to Prime Minister Abe's statement, a significant proportion of respondents, 32.3% (99 respondents), indicated that they could not judge the impact of this speech.

[Figure 7] Impact of President Park Geun-hye's "Liberation Day Address" on Korea-Japan Relations (%)

3. Conclusion

■ This survey revealed that nearly half of the respondents in both Korea and Japan assessed President Park Geun-hye's address positively. Regarding Prime Minister Abe's statement, the majority of respondents in Korea assessed it negatively, perceiving that Japan had not sufficiently reflected on its past actions. In China, while the majority also assessed it negatively, the assessment was more positive compared to Korea. In contrast, opinions in Japan were divided, with roughly equal positive and negative assessments.

■ Similarly, regarding President Park Geun-hye's address, 43.4% of respondents in Korea and 49.6% in Japan answered that it would help improve Korea-Japan relations. For Prime Minister Abe's statement, the majority of respondents in Korea believed it would not help improve Korea-Japan relations, whereas approximately 30% of respondents in China thought it would help improve China-Japan relations. In Japan, 38.4% of all respondents believed it would help improve relations with either Korea or China, indicating a considerable number of respondents expected positive effects. Notably, the proportion of respondents who believed it would help improve only China-Japan relations was 10.7%, more than four times higher than the 2.3% in Korea, suggesting that the perception was that Prime Minister Abe's statement was more favorable to relations with China than with Korea.

■ This survey was jointly conducted by EAI and Genron NPO to ascertain the public opinion of Korean, Chinese, and Japanese intellectuals regarding the announcements made by the leaders of Korea and Japan commemorating August 15th. The survey was conducted online from August 20th to 22nd in Korea and from August 18th to 21st in Japan and China, targeting participants of each institution's activities over a short period. Therefore, limitations exist due to potential errors arising from the survey methodology and target demographics.