[Public Opinion Brief 130-2] Presidential Election Issues and Their Impact on Election Results

[Public Opinion Brief 130-2] Jointly Conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research

1. Candidate Factors

2. Impact of Issues

3. Judgment of the Lee Myung-bak Administration vs. Responsibility of the Participatory Government

4. Media Utilization and Effects

5. Economic Perceptions

6. Changes in Party Support Rates

1. Candidate Factors

- Park Geun-hye's favorability rating increased from 5.5 to 5.9 points; Moon Jae-in's rating decreased from 6.1 to 5.9 points.

■ The favorability rating for President-elect Park Geun-hye was 5.9 points out of 10, the same as for candidate Moon Jae-in. However, this result differs from the survey conducted just before the election. Except for August, when the first presidential election panel survey was conducted, Moon's favorability rating consistently surpassed Park's in the October, November, and pre-election panel surveys.

[Figure 18] Changes in Favorability by Candidate (Points)

■ Nevertheless, the distribution of favorability scores by age group did not fundamentally change. While Park Geun-hye received higher favorability scores among those aged 50 and above, Moon Jae-in's favorability scores remained higher compared to Park's among those aged 40 and below.

[Figure 18] Changes in Favorability by Age Group (Points)

- Park showed higher capability for state administration, while Moon was still rated higher for integrity and communication skills.

■ Beyond favorability, comparing the pre-election and post-election panel survey results for evaluations of integrity, state administration capability, and communication skills between President-elect Park and candidate Moon reveals that scores generally increased for both candidates.

■ While the favorability scores were identical for both candidates, Park led in state administration capability, and Moon was still ahead in integrity and communication skills. Although different from the election outcome, these results indicate that Moon was not significantly behind Park in terms of candidate factors.

[Table 10] Changes in Candidate Factors (Points)

- Park's ideological score increased from 7.1 to 7.5, strengthening her conservative image.

■ Regarding ideological evaluation scores for each candidate, in the fifth panel survey conducted immediately after the presidential election, Park Geun-hye's score was 7.5 on a scale where 0 represents very progressive and 10 represents very conservative. This indicates that the voter panel perceived Park's ideological orientation as closer to conservative.

■ Moon's ideological orientation was evaluated as 4.4, indicating a slightly progressive stance close to the center. Compared to the panel survey results immediately after the general election in May and the third presidential election panel survey in November, these findings show that Park moved further towards conservative, while Moon moved towards the center.

[Figure 19] Changes in Ideological Evaluation Scores by Candidate

2. Impact of Issues

- The most impactful issue was Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal and support for Moon Jae-in, cited by 32.9%.

- Lee Jung-hee's TV debate performance and withdrawal accounted for 15.0%.

■ Issues were raised during this presidential election. The impact of these issues as perceived by the voter panel was investigated. The most significant issue, with a response rate of 32.9%, was Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal and support for Moon Jae-in. Lee Jung-hee's TV debate performance and withdrawal also garnered a response rate of 15.0%. The controversy surrounding the NIS female employee's defamatory comments ranked third, while the controversy over former President Park Chung-hee's pro-Japanese activities and the NLL transcript leak controversy each received response rates in the 4% range.

[Table 11] Perceived Impact of Issues (%)

■ Examining the responses based on who the voters supported in the 18th presidential election, those who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye cited Lee Jung-hee's TV debate performance and withdrawal as the most significant issue, with a response rate of 22.4%. Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal and support for Moon Jae-in ranked second at 21.0%. The controversy surrounding the NIS female employee's defamatory comments was cited by 9.7%, while the NLL transcript leak controversy and the controversy over former President Park Chung-hee's pro-Japanese activities were cited by 5.9% and 2.8%, respectively.

■ For voter panelists who stated they voted for Moon Jae-in, Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal and support for Moon Jae-in was cited most frequently, with a response rate of 44.8%. The controversy over former President Park Chung-hee's pro-Japanese activities and the NIS female employee's defamatory comments ranked second and third, with response rates of 7.1% and 7.0%, respectively. The proportion of voters for President-elect Park who cited Lee Jung-hee's TV debate performance and withdrawal as the most significant issue was only 6.8%.

■ When analyzed by generation, younger generations were more likely to cite Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal and support for Moon Jae-in. No distinct trends were observed for other issues across different age groups.

[Table 12] Perceived Impact of Issues by Key Variables (%)

- Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal and support for Moon Jae-in: 50.3% reported no change in favorability towards their preferred candidate.

- Lee Jung-hee's TV debate performance and withdrawal: 52.0% reported an increase in favorability towards Park.

■ Among the ten investigated issues, the direction of impact on presidential candidate support—whether favorability increased, decreased, or remained unchanged—revealed several notable points.

■ Regarding Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal and support for Moon Jae-in, the highest proportion of respondents, 50.3%, indicated that it had no impact on their favorability towards the candidate. While 19.8% reported an increase in favorability towards Moon Jae-in, the simultaneous response of 11.9% indicating a decrease resulted in a net increase of 7.9 percentage points (p). For President-elect Park Geun-hye, 14.4% reported an increase in favorability, and 3.4% reported a decrease, resulting in a net increase of 11.0 percentage points (p). This outcome is higher than the net favorability increase for Moon Jae-in.

■ Lee Jung-hee's TV debate performance and withdrawal were issues that benefited President-elect Park Geun-hye. The proportion of respondents who reported an increase in favorability towards Park was 52.0%, whereas only 2.5% reported an increase in favorability towards Moon Jae-in.

■ The controversy surrounding the NIS female employee's defamatory comments was relatively disadvantageous to President-elect Park Geun-hye, but its impact was small. The proportion of respondents who reported a decrease in favorability towards Park was 26.6%, and towards Moon was 22.0%.

■ The controversy over former President Park Chung-hee's pro-Japanese activities was a disadvantageous issue for President-elect Park Geun-hye, with 54.5% reporting a decrease in favorability. However, its impact was limited as it accounted for only 4.9% of all issues.

■ The NLL transcript leak controversy contributed to an increase in favorability for President-elect Park Geun-hye. While 33.9% reported an increase in favorability towards Park, 23.7% reported a decrease in favorability towards Moon Jae-in.

[Table 13] Direction of Impact by Issue (%)

3. Judgment of the Lee Myung-bak Administration vs. Responsibility of the Participatory Government

- 48.9% agreed with the judgment of the Lee Myung-bak administration.

- 28.1% agreed with the failure of the Participatory Government.

■ One of the significant issues in this presidential election was the judgment of the Lee Myung-bak administration and the responsibility of the Participatory Government. Park Geun-hye belonged to the Saenuri Party, the same as President Lee Myung-bak, and Moon Jae-in was a former Chief of Staff in the Blue House during the Participatory Government. Regarding the judgment of the Lee Myung-bak administration, the proportion who agreed was 48.9% (24.1% strongly agreed + 24.8% generally agreed), which was not significantly different from the proportion who disagreed, totaling 49.4% (15.4% strongly disagreed + 34.0% generally disagreed).

[Figure 20] Degree of Agreement with the Judgment of the Lee Myung-bak Administration (%)

■ However, these results show differences when analyzed by voting candidate. Among voter panelists who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye, only 4.8% strongly agreed, while the response rate among those who voted for Moon Jae-in was a very high 44.6%.

[Figure 21] Degree of Agreement with the Judgment of the Lee Myung-bak Administration by Voting Candidate (%)

■ Generational differences were also relatively clear. Among those aged 40 and below, the proportion who agreed with the judgment of the Lee Myung-bak administration was over 50%. However, among those aged 50, the proportion who agreed was 37.9% (strongly agreed + generally agreed), and among those aged 60 and above, the response rate was 29.0% (strongly agreed + generally agreed), which was relatively low.

[Figure 22] Degree of Agreement with the Judgment of the Lee Myung-bak Administration by Generation (%)

■ The proportion who agreed with the failure of the Participatory Government was 28.1% (8.7% strongly agreed + 19.4% generally agreed), while the proportion who disagreed was 70.3% (19.9% strongly disagreed + 50.4% generally disagreed). Compared to the survey results on the judgment of the Lee Myung-bak administration, this indicates a relatively lower level of agreement.

[Figure 23] Degree of Agreement with the Failure of the Participatory Government (%)

■ Among voter panelists who stated they voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye, the proportion who agreed with the failure of the Participatory Government was 50.4% (16.9% strongly agreed + 33.5% generally agreed), and the proportion who disagreed was 47.5% (41.2% strongly disagreed + 6.3% generally disagreed).

■ Among voter panelists who voted for Moon Jae-in, the proportion who agreed was 6.3% (0.9% strongly agreed + 5.4% generally agreed), and the proportion who disagreed was 93.0% (58.2% strongly disagreed + 34.8% generally disagreed).

[Figure 24] Degree of Agreement with the Failure of the Participatory Government by Voting Candidate (%)

■ When analyzed by generation, the proportion who agreed with the failure of the Participatory Government generally increased with age. Specifically, among those aged 19-29, only 2.5% strongly agreed with the failure of the Participatory Government, whereas among those aged 60 and above, the response rate was 18.5%. Conversely, the proportion who strongly disagreed was 23.9% for those aged 19-29, and 10.4% for those aged 60 and above.

[Figure 25] Degree of Agreement with the Failure of the Participatory Government by Generation (%)

4. Media Utilization and Effects

- For election information, up to age 30, the internet was preferred; for those 40 and above, TV was preferred.

- SNS response rate was 4.3%.

■ When asked about the media used to obtain election information, TV was cited most frequently at 44.2%. The internet was cited by 33.3%, and newspapers by 10.4%. SNS and word-of-mouth were cited by 4.3% and 3.8%, respectively.

[Figure 26] Media Channels for Obtaining Election Information (%)

■ There were generational differences. Up to age 30, the internet was more frequently cited, while for those aged 40 and above, TV was more frequently cited. Among those aged 60 and above, newspapers were cited more often (19.8%) than the internet (6.8%). However, even among those aged 50, newspapers were cited by 13.1%, which is lower than the 23.8% who cited the internet. SNS also exceeded 5% only among those aged 30 and below, showing relatively low response rates compared to other media.

[Table 14] Media Channels for Obtaining Election Information by Generation (%)

- TV Debates: 39.0% thought Moon performed well; 37.9% thought no candidate performed particularly well.

- 21.9% thought Park performed well in the TV debates.

■ The proportion of the voter panel who answered that they had watched a TV debate in this presidential election was 71.8% (1,204 people). When asked which candidate performed well among them, the proportion who answered Moon Jae-in was the highest at 39.0%. The proportion who answered that no particular candidate performed well was 37.9%. However, the proportion who selected Park Geun-hye, the president-elect who won the presidential election, was 21.9%.

[Figure 27] Evaluation of Candidates by TV Debate Viewers (71.8%, 1,204 people)

■ Looking at the results by which candidate the voters voted for, it can be seen that more people evaluated Moon Jae-in as having performed better in the TV debate than President-elect Park Geun-hye. Among the voter panels who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye, the proportion who answered that Park Geun-hye performed well was 41.6%, and the proportion who answered that no particular candidate performed well was 42.3%.

■ The evaluations of the voter panels who voted for Moon Jae-in were relatively more positive about their chosen candidate compared to the voter panels who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye. The proportion who answered that Moon Jae-in performed well was 63.7%, and the proportion who answered that no particular candidate performed well was 31.8%.

■ When examined by age group, among those up to their 30s, the proportion who answered that Moon Jae-in performed well and the proportion who answered that no particular candidate performed well were both high, exceeding 40%. In the 40s and 50s, more respondents answered that Moon Jae-in performed better than President-elect Park Geun-hye. The only age group where President-elect Park Geun-hye was more frequently cited as having performed better in the TV debate than Moon Jae-in was those aged 60 and over.

[Table 15] Evaluation of Candidates by TV Debate Viewers (71.8%, 1,204 people) by Key Variables

- TV debate and strength of support for preferred candidate: No change, 59.2%

- In the 17th presidential election, 45.6%

■ We examined whether the TV debate influenced the strength of support for the preferred candidate. First, in this 18th presidential election, the proportion who answered 'no change' was 59.2%, which was relatively high compared to 45.6% in the previous 17th presidential election. Furthermore, the proportion of respondents who increased or decreased their support was lower compared to the 17th presidential election. The proportion of respondents who changed their preferred candidate or newly formed a preference also decreased compared to the 17th presidential election.

[Figure 28] TV Debate and Preferred Candidate (%)

■ The finding that the TV debate did not have a significant impact on the strength of support for the preferred candidate can also be confirmed through the result that the difference based on which candidate was supported was small. Among the voter panels who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye, the proportion who answered 'change in preferred candidate' or 'newly formed preference' was only 2.6% and 0.6%, respectively. The proportion who answered 'no change' was 60.4%.

■ Among the voter panels who stated they voted for Moon Jae-in, the proportion who answered 'change in preferred candidate' or 'newly formed preference' was also only 2.9% and 1.9%, respectively. The proportion who answered 'no change' was 57.2%, showing no difference from the survey results for President-elect Park Geun-hye.

[Table 16] TV Debate and Preferred Candidate by Key Variables

5. Economic Perception

- Household economic situation: Very improved, 0.4%; Somewhat improved, 8.0%

- National economic situation: Very improved, 0.5%; Somewhat improved, 5.6%

■ Economic perception is generally considered an important variable that determines election outcomes. First, regarding the survey on how the household economic situation has changed compared to one year ago, the proportion who answered negatively was higher than the proportion who answered positively. However, the highest response rate was for 'no difference.' In this panel survey, the response rate for 'no difference' was 60.5%, which was not different from the response rate of 56.8% in the survey conducted immediately after the general election in April.

■ In this 5th survey, the proportion who answered 'very improved' was only 0.4%, and the proportion who answered 'somewhat improved' was 8.0%, showing no difference from the response rates in the survey conducted immediately after the general election (2nd survey). This indicates that many voter panels perceive that the household economic situation has generally not improved positively and has remained the same, or has even worsened.

[Figure 29] Perception of Household Economic Situation (%)

■ For the perception of the national economic situation, the proportion who answered 'somewhat worsened' was the highest at 50.5%. This survey result is an increase compared to the response rate of 43.4% in the survey conducted immediately after the general election in April (2nd survey). The proportion who answered 'similar' was 26.4%, and the proportion who answered 'very worsened' was 15.8%. Consequently, it can be seen that most voter panels not only perceive the national economic situation of Korea negatively but also perceive the severity of the situation as more serious compared to the period immediately after the general election in April.

[Figure 30] Perception of National Economic Situation (%)

- Responsibility for household economy: Myself > Current government > Overseas economic situation

- Responsibility for national economy: Current government > Myself > Overseas economic situation

■ Regarding who is responsible for the worsening household and national economies, there were both commonalities and differences. A commonality was that the incumbent government was cited most frequently as responsible for both the national and household economies. Another commonality was that overseas economic conditions, political parties, and the National Assembly were cited as responsible in that order of frequency.

■ The difference appeared in the proportion who cited 'myself.' The proportion citing 'myself' for the national economy was only 3.6%, whereas the response rate for the household economy was high at 30.4%.

[Figure 31] Perception of Responsibility for Worsening Household and National Economies (%)

■ We examined who is primarily considered responsible for the household economic situation. First, looking at the results by candidate voted for, among the voter panels who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye, the highest response rate was for 'myself.' This response rate was 35.5%. Next was 'overseas economic situation,' with a response rate of 23.8%. The proportions citing the current government and political parties/National Assembly were 22.0% and 6.4%, respectively.

■ The views of voter panels who voted for Moon Jae-in differed from those who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye. The highest response rate was for the 'current government,' at 44.4%. The proportion citing 'myself' was 24.8%, and the proportion citing 'overseas economic situation' was 15.3%. The proportion citing political parties/National Assembly was 7.5%.

■ Age-based differences also emerged. The proportion citing 'myself' increased with age, while the proportion citing the 'current government' relatively decreased with younger age. The 'overseas economic situation' showed a response rate of around 20% across all age groups.

■ Looking at the results by party affiliation, among Saenuri Party supporters, 'myself' had the highest proportion, and the proportions for the 'current government' and 'overseas economic situation' were equal. Among Democratic United Party supporters and independents, the 'current government' had the highest proportion, followed by 'myself' and then 'overseas economic situation.'

[Table 17] Perception of Responsibility for Household Economic Situation by Key Variables (%)

■ We examined the results by candidate voted for regarding the perception of responsibility for the national economic situation. Among the voter panels who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye, the proportion who answered 'current government' was the highest at 42.0%. The proportions citing 'overseas economic situation' and 'political parties/National Assembly' were 33.0% and 10.7%, respectively.

■ Among the voter panels who voted for Moon Jae-in, the response rate for the 'current government' was the highest at 71.3%. The proportions citing 'overseas economic situation' and 'political parties/National Assembly' were 13.5% and 8.2%, respectively, following the same order as the results for voter panels who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye.

■ When examined by age group, the proportion citing the 'current government' was high in all age groups, particularly in the 40s and below, where it reached the 60% range. The proportions citing 'overseas economic situation' and 'political parties/National Assembly' were the second and third highest, respectively, but there were no clear differences across age groups.

■ Differences by party affiliation were relatively clear. Saenuri Party supporters had a relatively high proportion citing responsibility of the 'current government' (43.3%) and also the 'global economic situation' (30.9%). In contrast, among Democratic United Party supporters, the proportion citing the 'current government' was 71.3%, overwhelmingly higher than the proportion citing the 'overseas economic situation' (13.8%). Independents also had a proportion citing the 'current government' of 58.3%, more than double the proportion citing the 'overseas economic situation' (23.7%).

[Table 18] Perception of Responsibility for National Economic Situation by Key Variables (%)

- Outlook for household economy in one year: Will improve, 30.1%; No difference, 52.0%

- Outlook for national economy in one year: Will improve, 33.2%; No difference, 35.2%

■ In the outlook for one year later, the proportion viewing the national economic situation optimistically was higher compared to the household economic situation. The proportion who answered that the national economic situation would improve was 33.2% (very much improve 3.1% + slightly improve 30.1%), and the proportion who answered that the household economic situation would improve was 30.1% (very much improve 3.2% + slightly improve 36.9%).

■ However, this result does not mean that the outlook for the national economic situation is more optimistic than that for the household economic situation. The proportion who answered 'no difference' for the national economy was 35.2%, while for the household economy, it was 52.0%.

■ Furthermore, in the outlook for 'will worsen,' the national economic situation showed a higher response rate compared to the household economic situation. This indicates that the proportion of voter panels pessimistically forecasting the national economic situation is higher than that for the household economic situation.

[Figure 32] Perception of Outlook for Household and National Economies (%)

■ We compared and examined the results for the household economy by key variables. First, looking at the results by candidate voted for, the proportion who made optimistic forecasts among voter panels who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye was higher than that of voter panels who voted for Moon Jae-in. However, even among voter panels who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye, the proportion who answered 'will improve' was 42.8% (very much improve 4.8% + slightly improve 38.0%) in total, which did not reach a majority, indicating that pessimistic forecasts prevail for the household economy outlook.

■ When examined by age group, the proportion who answered 'will improve' was 30% or higher among those aged 50 and over, which is higher than the 20% range for those aged 40 and below. However, in all age groups, the proportion who answered 'will improve' did not exceed the combined proportion of 'no difference' and 'will worsen.'

■ However, the outlook among Saenuri Party supporters differed. The proportion who forecasted 'will improve' was 49.1% (very much improve 5.6% + slightly improve 43.5%) in total. The proportion who answered 'no difference' was 41.4%, and the proportion who forecasted 'will worsen' was only 7.8% (very much worsen 0.9% + slightly worsen 6.9%).

[Table 19] Perception of Household Economic Outlook by Key Variables (%)

■ The national economic outlook showed clearer differences in values compared to the household economic outlook. Among the voter panels who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye in this presidential election, the proportion who optimistically forecasted the national economic situation was 50.1% (very much improve 5.6% + slightly improve 44.5%) in total. Among the voter panels who voted for Moon Jae-in, the response rate was only 16.8% (very much improve 0.9% + slightly improve 15.9%) in total.

■ By age group, the proportion of optimistic forecasts ('will improve') increased with age. Conversely, the proportion forecasting 'no difference' and 'will worsen' increased with younger age. In fact, among those aged 40 and below, the proportion forecasting 'will improve' was only in the 20% range, while among those aged 50 and over, it was in the 40% range or higher.

■ Looking at the results by party affiliation, the proportion of Saenuri Party supporters who optimistically forecasted the national economy was 54.1% (very much improve 6.7% + slightly improve 47.4%) in total, while among Democratic United Party supporters, the response rate was only 20.0% (very much improve 1.0% + slightly improve 19.0%) in total.

[Table 20] Perception of National Economic Outlook by Key Variables (%)

6. Changes in Party Support Rate

- No party supported: 37.7%

- Saenuri Party support rate: From 34.2% to 35.3%

- Democratic United Party support rate: From 25.2% to 23.0%

■ Regarding party support rates, the Saenuri Party's support rate was 35.3%, and the Democratic United Party's support rate was 23.0%. The support rates for other parties were all below 1%. However, the highest response rate was for 'no party supported' at 37.7%.

[Figure 33] Party Support (%)

■ Despite Park Geun-hye's victory, there were no significant changes in party support rates. The Saenuri Party's support rate increased by only 1.1 percentage points (p) compared to 36.6% before the election. Moreover, compared to the support rates in the panel surveys of August, October, and November, it actually decreased.

■ The Democratic United Party's support rate decreased by 2.2 percentage points (p) compared to 25.2% before the election. However, this cannot be interpreted as a change in trend. There were no significant differences compared to the panel survey results conducted before November.

[Figure 34] Changes in Party Support Rate (%)

■ We examined party support rates by several variables. First, looking at the results by candidate voted for in the presidential election, 67.9% of the voter panels who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye answered that they support the Saenuri Party. The proportion who answered that they had no party to support was 27.1%, ranking second highest.

Among the voters who voted for candidate Moon Jae-in, the highest response rate was 45.8% for those who answered they do not support any political party. The rate of those who answered they support the Democratic United Party was 43.2%.

Examining by generation, the response rate for not supporting any political party was highest up to the 40s. For those aged 50 and above, the rate of selecting the Saenuri Party was highest.

Examining by region of residence, the rate of answering that they do not support any political party was highest in Seoul and Incheon/Gyeonggi. In Daejeon/Chungcheong and Daegu/Gyeongbuk, the rate of answering the Saenuri Party was highest. In Gwangju/Jeolla, the rate of selecting the Democratic United Party was highest. In Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam, the rates for the Saenuri Party and not supporting any political party were neck and neck at 37.6% and 38.9%, respectively.

[Table 21] Supported Political Party by Major Variables (%)