[Public Opinion Briefing 130-1] Evaluation of Presidential Election Results and Outlook for President-elect Park Geun-hye's Governance

[Public Opinion Briefing 130-1] Jointly Conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research

1. Presidential Election Voting and Satisfaction with Results

2. Reasons for Voting

3. Timing of Decision to Vote for a Candidate

4. Voter Panel Evaluation of Election Results

5. Voter Panel Outlook for President-elect Park Geun-hye's Governance

1. Presidential Election Voting and Satisfaction with Results

- Voter panel members who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye: 94.2% satisfied

- Voter panel members who voted for candidate Moon Jae-in: 84.8% satisfied

■ The 5th survey of the 2012 Presidential Election Panel (hereinafter referred to as the 5th Survey), jointly conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research, was conducted from December 20 to 22, the day after the 18th presidential election. A total of 1,355 voter panel members (panel retention rate of 67.8%; maximum allowable sampling error at a 95% confidence level is ±2.7%) participated.

■ Of the voter panel members, 96.4% responded that they voted, while only 3.6% stated they did not vote. Regarding the candidate they voted for, 49.7% answered they voted for candidate Park Geun-hye, and 48.7% voted for candidate Moon Jae-in. Compared to the election results where President-elect Park Geun-hye secured 51.6% of the vote and candidate Moon Jae-in received 48.0%, President-elect Park's vote share was 1.9 percentage points (p) lower, and candidate Moon's was 0.7 percentage points (p) higher in the panel survey.

[Figure 1] Percentage of Respondents Who Voted by Age Group (%)

■ Examining satisfaction with the voted candidate, 34.2% responded they were very satisfied, and 55.1% were generally satisfied. The proportions of those who were not very satisfied and not at all satisfied were 9.0% and 1.5%, respectively.

[Figure 2] Satisfaction with Voted Candidate (%)

■ A comparison of satisfaction levels between voter panel members who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye, the winner of the presidential election, and those who voted for candidate Moon Jae-in, who lost the election, was conducted. The results showed that the satisfaction level of voter panel members who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye was 94.2% (very satisfied + generally satisfied), which was 9.4 percentage points (p) higher than the satisfaction level of voter panel members who voted for candidate Moon Jae-in, which was 84.8% (very satisfied + generally satisfied).

[Figure 3] Satisfaction by Voted Candidate (%)

■ Examining satisfaction with the voted candidate by age group revealed that satisfaction, particularly the 'very satisfied' response, increased with age. Among the 19-29 age group, the proportion of 'very satisfied' responses was only 16.4%, while it was significantly higher in the 50s and 60+ age groups, at 39.3% and 55.2%, respectively.

[Figure 4] Satisfaction with Voted Candidate by Age Group (%)

■ Satisfaction with the voted candidate also varied by region of residence. The proportion of 'very satisfied' responses was high in Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Daejeon/Chungcheong, considered strongholds for President-elect Park Geun-hye, at 44.4% and 38.1%, respectively. Conversely, the proportion of 'very satisfied' responses was relatively low in Gwangju/Jeolla and Seoul, areas where candidate Moon Jae-in had strong support, at 28.8% and 23.1%, respectively.

[Figure 5] Satisfaction with Voted Candidate by Region of Residence (%)

■ Regarding satisfaction with the voted candidate by party affiliation, 55.3% of Saenuri Party supporters responded they were very satisfied, while 29.5% of Democratic United Party supporters responded they were very satisfied. Among independent voters (475 individuals, 37.8%), the proportion of 'very satisfied' responses was 15.6%, which was lower compared to supporters of the Saenuri Party or the Democratic United Party.

[Figure 6] Satisfaction with Voted Candidate by Party Affiliation (%)

2. Reasons for Voting

- Reasons for voting for President-elect Park Geun-hye: Ability and Experience > Ideology and Pledges > Morality

- Reasons for voting for candidate Moon Jae-in: Ideology and Pledges > Morality > Ability and Experience

- Comparison with the 17th presidential election: Ability and Experience 49.4%→31.8%; Ideology and Pledges 11.3%→27.1%

■ When asked about the reasons for voting, 31.8% of respondents cited the candidate's ability and experience as the primary reason. The proportion citing the candidate's ideology and pledges was 27.1%, and morality was cited by 21.0%. The proportion citing the candidate's party affiliation was 7.0%, electability was 4.8%, and place of origin was 0.6%.

[Figure 7] Reasons for Voting (%, 1,292 respondents)

Note: 'Other' and 'Don't know/No response' were excluded from the analysis.

■ When the reasons for voting were analyzed by the candidate voted for, 43.5% of voter panel members who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye cited the candidate's ability and experience. The proportion citing ideology and pledges was 25.2%, and morality was cited by 16.1%. Among voter panel members who voted for candidate Moon Jae-in, 28.9% cited the candidate's ideology and pledges, and 26.2% cited morality. The proportion citing the candidate's ability and experience was 20.0%.

[Figure 8] Reasons for Voting by Voted Candidate (%)

■ Analysis of voting reasons by age group and region of residence revealed that among younger age groups (20s and 30s), citing the candidate's ideology and pledges was the most common reason, at 38.9% and 36.0%, respectively. For those aged 40 and above, citing the candidate's ability and experience was more frequent than other reasons.

■ The regions where citing the candidate's ability and experience was most frequent were Daegu/Gyeongbuk, Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam, and Daejeon/Chungcheong. Citing the candidate's ideology and pledges was most frequent in Seoul and Incheon/Gyeonggi. In Gwangju/Jeolla, citing the candidate's morality was higher at 26.3% compared to other regions.

[Table 1] Reasons for Voting by Age Group and Region of Residence (%)

■ Comparing these results with the survey conducted after the 17th presidential election in 2007 (2007 EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, Korea Research Joint Presidential Election Panel Post-Election Survey), the proportion citing the candidate's ability and experience decreased from 49.4% to 31.8%, while the proportion citing the candidate's ideology and pledges increased from 11.3% to 27.1%. The proportion citing the candidate's morality showed little change, from 20.1% to 21.0%. Responses regarding party affiliation, electability, and place of origin showed minor differences and maintained relatively low proportions.

[Figure 9] Changes in Reasons for Voting: 17th vs. 18th Presidential Elections (%)

3. Timing of Decision to Vote for a Candidate

- Voter panel members who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye: 39.9% decided more than a month prior; 8.3% decided 2-3 days prior

- Voter panel members who voted for candidate Moon Jae-in: 27.8% decided more than a month prior; 12.5% decided 2-3 days prior

■ Regarding the timing of the decision to vote for a candidate, 33.7% of respondents indicated they decided more than a month prior. The proportions who decided around the candidate registration period and about a month prior were 22.0% and 15.3%, respectively. Those who decided about a week prior accounted for 12.3%, while those who decided 2-3 days prior and on the day of the election were 10.5% and 6.3%, respectively.

[Figure 10] Timing of Decision to Vote for a Candidate (%)

■ Analyzing the timing of candidate decisions by voted candidate revealed that voter panel members who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye made their decisions earlier compared to those who voted for candidate Moon Jae-in. Specifically, 39.9% of voter panel members who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye stated they decided more than a month prior, with 13.9% deciding about a month prior and 21.9% deciding around the candidate registration period. Among voter panel members who voted for candidate Moon Jae-in, 27.8% decided more than a month prior, while 16.7% decided about a month prior and 22.3% decided around the candidate registration period.

[Figure 11] Timing of Decision by Voted Candidate (%)

■ Examining the timing of voting decisions by age group and party affiliation, it was observed that the proportion of respondents who decided on their candidate earlier increased with age. For the 19-29 age group, the highest response rate was for 'more than a month prior' at 18.4%, which was not significantly different from the 18.0% who chose '2-3 days prior'. In the 30s, 'more than a month prior' was also the highest response at 28.3%, but this was relatively lower compared to the 35.0% in the 40s, 35.7% in the 50s, and 49.1% in the 60+ age groups.

■ Analysis by party affiliation also indicated that supporters of the Saenuri Party tended to decide on their candidate earlier. While 47.6% of Saenuri Party supporters stated they decided more than a month prior, this figure was 33.1% among Democratic United Party supporters. Regarding the '2-3 days prior' response, the proportion was 3.6% for Saenuri Party supporters, compared to a higher 9.3% for Democratic United Party supporters.

■ Independent voter panel members made their decisions even later than Democratic United Party supporters. The proportion who decided 'more than a month prior' was 20.6%, while the proportion who decided '2-3 days prior' was 18.1%.

■ The survey results on the timing of presidential candidate voting decisions indicate that voters made their decisions earlier compared to the general election panel survey conducted immediately after the general election in April. In the panel survey conducted after the general election, the proportion of respondents who decided on their candidate 2-3 days before the election was higher than other periods for those up to the 50s. Similarly, in terms of party affiliation, voters decided on their candidate earlier in this presidential election than in the general election.

[Table 2] Timing of Decision to Vote for a Candidate by Key Background Variables (%)

4. Voter Panel Evaluation of Election Results

- Reasons for President-elect Park's victory: Opposition's failure to unify candidates (50.1%); President-elect Park's performance (15.4%)

■ Examining the voter panel's evaluation of the election results, which concluded with President-elect Park's victory, the most frequently cited reason was the opposition's failure to achieve candidate unification as expected, at 50.1%. The proportion citing the Democratic Party's and candidate Moon Jae-in's poor performance was higher than that citing the Saenuri Party's and candidate Park's strong performance. Specifically, the proportion citing the Democratic Party's poor performance was 18.2%, and candidate Moon's poor performance was 4.7%. In contrast, the proportions citing candidate Park's strong performance and the Saenuri Party's strong performance were 15.4% and 1.2%, respectively.

■ A comparative analysis of these survey results by voted candidate revealed commonalities and differences. A commonality was that the proportion citing the opposition's failure to achieve candidate unification as expected was highest among voter panel members who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye (42.6%) and among those who voted for candidate Moon Jae-in (57.7%). Another commonality was that the proportion citing the Democratic Party's poor performance was relatively high in both groups, at 17.3% and 20.1%, respectively.

■ The difference lay in the evaluation of candidate Park Geun-hye and the Democratic Party. Among voter panel members who voted for President-elect Park Geun-hye, 26.5% cited candidate Park's strong performance, whereas this figure was only 4.6% among those who voted for candidate Moon Jae-in.

■ Examining by age group, the proportion citing the opposition's failure to achieve candidate unification as expected increased with younger age. Conversely, the proportion citing President-elect Park Geun-hye's strong performance increased with older age. Specifically, in the 19-29 age group, the proportion citing the opposition's failure to unify candidates was high at 56.0%, while the proportion citing President-elect Park's strong performance was low at 6.8%. In contrast, among those aged 60 and above, the proportion citing the opposition's failure to unify candidates was relatively low at 34.2%, while the proportion citing President-elect Park's strong performance was relatively high at 33.5%.

■ Differences were also observed by region of residence. In Seoul, Incheon/Gyeonggi, and Gwangju/Jeolla, the proportion citing the opposition's failure to achieve candidate unification as expected was relatively higher compared to other regions. In Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam, the proportion citing President-elect Park's strong performance was relatively higher compared to other regions.

■ Differences were also quite clear by party affiliation. Saenuri Party supporters showed a relatively high proportion (31.1%) citing President-elect Park's strong performance, whereas among Democratic United Party supporters, the proportion citing the opposition's failure to achieve candidate unification as expected was high at 61.7%.

[Table 3] Evaluation of Election Results (%)

- It was a policy-focused election: 47.2%

- Regionalism weakened: 37.6%

- It was a negative campaign: 53.5%

■ Voter panel members were asked to evaluate the recent election. When asked to assess whether the election was policy-focused, 47.2% responded affirmatively, while 50.0% responded negatively. Based solely on these figures, the evaluation appears to be evenly divided between 'yes' and 'no'. However, a comparison with the panel survey results from the 17th presidential election shows an increase in the proportion evaluating it as a policy-focused election. In the panel survey conducted immediately after the 17th presidential election, 39.3% responded affirmatively, and 60.1% responded negatively.

[Figure 12] Evaluation of Policy-Focused Election (%)

■ Regarding the assessment that regionalism had weakened, 37.6% responded affirmatively, while 60.8% responded negatively. While the fact that both President-elect Park Geun-hye and candidate Moon Jae-in were from the Yeongnam region may have played a role, the results show significant progress compared to the 17th presidential election panel survey. In the 17th presidential election, 58.3% responded that regionalism had weakened, while 41.4% responded negatively.

[Figure 13] Evaluation of Weakening Regionalism (%)

■ Regarding the evaluation of whether mudslinging between candidates intensified, i.e., whether it was a negative campaign, 53.5% answered yes, which is higher than the 45.3% who answered no. However, this result can be assessed as a partial improvement compared to the 74.5% who answered yes in the 17th presidential election panel survey results.

[Figure 14] Evaluation of Intensified Mudslinging Between Candidates (%)

■ In terms of the evaluation of whether government and presidential interference in the election was severe, 31.7% answered yes, while 64.7% answered no. This result indicates a relatively low possibility of controversy regarding abuse of power in elections.

[Figure 15] Evaluation of Severe Government and Presidential Election Interference (%)

5. Park Geun-hye's Prospects for State Administration as Viewed by Voter Panelists

- Park Geun-hye's state administration: Very well 19.1%, Generally well 53.4%

- Prospects differ by generation: Very well: 19-29 years old 9.6%, 60 years and older 36.2%

■ Regarding the prospects for Park Geun-hye's state administration as viewed by voter panelists, 19.1% responded that she would do very well, and 53.4% responded that she would generally do well. Those who responded that she would not do well accounted for 19.1%, and those who responded that she would not do well at all accounted for 6.5%. Thus, the proportion of positive prospects is 72.5% and the proportion of negative prospects is 25.6%.

[Figure 16] Voter Panelists' Prospects for Park Geun-hye's State Administration

■ Comparing the survey results by candidate voted for, the positive outlook of voter panelists who voted for Park Geun-hye overwhelmingly surpassed that of voter panelists who voted for Moon Jae-in. For the prospect of doing very well, the response rate among voter panelists who voted for Park Geun-hye was 34.0%, whereas it was only 4.7% among voter panelists who voted for Moon Jae-in.

■ Comparing by generation, it can be confirmed that the proportion of positive evaluations of Park Geun-hye's state administration prospects increases with age. Specifically, among the 19-29 age group, 9.6% responded that she would do very well, while among those aged 50 and above, the response rate was 24.7%, and among those aged 60 and above, it was 36.2%.

[Table 4] Prospects for Park Geun-hye's State Administration (%)

- Prospects for housing prices: Will stabilize 28.5%, Will rise 13.6%, Will fall 10.8%

■ Voter panelists were asked to predict the outlook for several important issues during Park Geun-hye's administration. Regarding housing prices, the highest proportion of respondents, 47.1%, answered they did not know. Those who responded that prices would stabilize accounted for 28.5%, while those who responded that prices would rise or fall accounted for 13.6% and 10.8%, respectively.

■ Amidst a prevalence of "don't know" responses regarding prospects, the differences in response rates by candidate voted for were clear. Among voter panelists who voted for Park Geun-hye, the proportion predicting a rise was only 6.0% and a fall was 6.2%. 45.1% responded that prices would stabilize.

■ However, among voter panelists who voted for Moon Jae-in, the proportion predicting a rise was 21.2%, and a fall was 15.2%. Only 12.6% responded that prices would stabilize, showing a difference from the survey results of voter panelists who voted for Park Geun-hye.

■ Examining the survey results by generation reveals relatively clear differences across age groups. As age decreased, the proportion predicting a rise increased, while as age increased, the proportion predicting stabilization increased.

[Table 5] Housing Price Prospects (%)

- Prospects for private education expenses: No change 39.8%, Will decrease 22.7%, Will increase 17.7%

■ Regarding the prospects for private education expenses, the highest proportion of respondents, 39.8%, predicted no change. Those who predicted a decrease accounted for 22.7%, and those who predicted an increase accounted for 17.7%.

■ Differences in response rates by candidate voted for were also relatively clear in the prospects for private education expenses. Among voter panelists who voted for Park Geun-hye, the proportion predicting no change was 39.9%, and the proportion predicting a decrease was 32.7%.

■ In contrast, among voter panelists who voted for Moon Jae-in, the proportion predicting no change was 39.4%, similar to the 39.9% among voter panelists who voted for Park Geun-hye. However, the proportion predicting an increase was 32.4%, showing a significant difference from the 4.0% reported for Park Geun-hye.

■ Differences in survey results by generation were also evident. As age decreased, the proportion predicting an increase rose, while as age increased, the proportion predicting a decrease rose.

[Table 6] Prospects for Private Education Expenses (%)

- Prospects for economic polarization: Similar to current situation 33.4%, Will improve 32.0%, Will worsen 21.6%

■ Regarding the prospects for economic polarization, the highest proportion of respondents, 33.4%, predicted it would remain similar to the current situation, followed by 32.0% who predicted improvement. Those who predicted worsening accounted for 21.6%.

■ When examined by presidential vote, among those who voted for Park Geun-hye, the proportion predicting improvement was highest at 53.2%. However, among those who voted for Moon Jae-in, the proportion predicting worsening was highest at 41.4%.

■ In generational survey results, the proportion predicting worsening increased as age decreased, while conversely, the proportion predicting improvement increased as age increased.

[Table 7] Prospects for Economic Polarization (%)

- Prospects for labor-management conflict: Similar 36.3%, Will improve 28.9%, Will worsen 20.0%

■ Regarding labor-management conflict, the highest proportion of respondents, 36.3%, predicted it would remain similar, followed by 28.9% who predicted improvement. Those who predicted worsening accounted for 20.0%.

■ Among those who voted for Park Geun-hye, the proportion predicting improvement was highest at 47.1%. However, among those who voted for Moon Jae-in, the proportion predicting similarity was 39.1%, and the proportion predicting worsening was 36.0%.

■ Generational differences were also observed. As age increased, the proportion predicting improvement increased, while as age decreased, the proportion predicting worsening increased.

[Table 8] Prospects for Labor-Management Conflict (%)

- Prospects for inter-Korean relations: Similar 37.8%, Will improve 25.7%, Will worsen 22.0%

■ Prospects for inter-Korean relations did not show significant differences from the characteristics observed in the survey results for other issues. The proportion predicting similarity was 37.8%, the proportion predicting improvement was 25.7%, and the proportion predicting worsening was 22.0%.

■ Among those who voted for Park Geun-hye, the proportions predicting improvement and similarity were high at 38.7% and 38.2%, respectively. However, among those who voted for Moon Jae-in, the proportions predicting similarity and worsening were high at 37.4% and 36.9%, respectively.

■ Generational differences were also observed: as age increased, the proportion predicting improvement increased, while as age decreased, the proportion predicting worsening increased. Specifically, among the 19-29 age group, the proportion predicting improvement in inter-Korean relations during Park Geun-hye's administration was 10.3%, while among those aged 60 and above, it was 42.9%. Conversely, among the 19-29 age group, the proportion predicting worsening was 36.3%, while among those aged 60 and above, it was only 5.1%.

[Table 9] Prospects for Inter-Korean Relations (%)

■ Overall, it can be seen that, in addition to which candidate was voted for in this presidential election, prospects for individual key issues vary by generation. Differences are also found when compared to the panel survey results conducted immediately after the 17th presidential election, in which Lee Myung-bak was elected.

■ Regarding prospects for state administration, 86.3% of voter panelists responded positively in the 17th survey, while 72.5% responded positively in the 18th survey. The proportion of positive responses for economic polarization and labor relations also decreased by more than 10 percentage points (p). The only area where the proportion of positive responses increased was inter-Korean relations, but the increase was only 3.7 percentage points (p).

[Figure 17] Proportion of Positive Evaluations by Area Immediately After the 17th and 18th Presidential Elections