[Public Opinion Brief No. 128] Key Results of the 4th Presidential Election Panel Survey

[Public Opinion Brief No. 128] 4th Presidential Election Panel Survey Jointly Conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research

1. Solidified Support Bases, A Neck-and-Neck Presidential Race

2. The Rise of Undecided Voters: Their Electoral Choices

3. Election Issues

4. Political Efficacy and Next Government's Policy Agendas

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1. Solidified Support Bases, A Neck-and-Neck Presidential Race

- Park Geun-hye 45.8% Moon Jae-in 46.0%

- Election Outcome Prediction: 76.4% Say We Must Wait Until Election Day

■ Seven days before the election, the outcome of the 18th Presidential Election remains unpredictable. In the 4th presidential panel survey, voter panelists did not clearly favor either candidate, Park Geun-hye of the Saenuri Party or Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party.

■ In a multi-candidate race, Park Geun-hye's approval rating was 45.8%, and Moon Jae-in's was 56.0%. This result indicates a neck-and-neck competition where predicting the election outcome is extremely difficult.

[Figure 1] Approval Ratings for Presidential Candidates in a Multi-Candidate Race (%)

■ When asked to name the candidate who should not be elected president, 40.3% of voter panelists chose Lee Jung-hee. The proportion who chose Park Geun-hye was 28.8%, and those who answered 'none' or Moon Jae-in were 22.3% and 5.8%, respectively.

[Figure 2] Candidate Who Should Not Be Elected (%)

■ Election outcome predictions also indicated a neck-and-neck race. The proportion of voter panelists who stated that the outcome would only be clear on election day reached 76.4%. Those who predicted Park Geun-hye's victory were 18.4%, and those who predicted Moon Jae-in's victory were 5.2%.

[Figure 3] Election Outcome Prediction (%)

■ The difficulty in predicting the election outcome is also evident in the predictions based on candidate support. Among Park Geun-hye's supporters, 32.6% predicted a comfortable victory for her. Among Moon Jae-in's supporters, 10.9% predicted a comfortable victory for him. Among those who stated they had no candidate to support, 22.6% predicted a comfortable victory for Park Geun-hye, while none predicted a comfortable victory for Moon Jae-in.

■ Regardless of their preferred candidate, a majority of respondents indicated that the outcome would only be clear on election day. The proportion of Park Geun-hye's supporters who responded this way was 67.2%, and for Moon Jae-in's supporters, it was 85.2%. For those with no candidate to support, the proportion was 75.7%.

[Figure 4] Election Outcome Prediction by Supporter (%)

2. The Rise of Undecided Voters: Their Electoral Choices

- Solidified Support Bases; No Shift in Voter Sentiment Before or After North Korea's Long-Range Rocket Launch

■ One week before the presidential election, 93.1% of voter panelists had already decided on their choice. This suggests that unless a highly unusual variable emerges in the remaining period, the possibility of significant shifts in approval ratings is very low.

■ Indeed, despite North Korea's long-range rocket launch on the morning of the 12th, approval ratings remained unchanged. On the 11th, the day before the launch (1,004 respondents), Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in had approval ratings of 46.1% and 46.4%, respectively. On the 12th, the day of the launch (304 respondents), their approval ratings were both 44.7%. Consequently, although both camps blamed the other for the situation, the results show no impact on approval ratings. This also indicates the strong consolidation of support bases for both Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in. [Figure 5] Approval Ratings for Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in on the 11th and 12th (%)

- From 3rd to 4th Survey: Supporter Retention Rate Park Geun-hye 94.0%, Moon Jae-in 93.4%

■ As the election day approached, changes in candidate support were minimal. We examined voter panelists who changed their preferred candidate from the 3rd panel survey (conducted from November 25th to 27th) to the 4th survey.

■ Among voter panelists who supported Park Geun-hye in the 3rd survey, 94.0% (497 individuals) continued to support her in the 4th survey. Of the 6.0% who withdrew their support for Park Geun-hye, 4.3% (23 individuals) shifted to Moon Jae-in, and the remaining 1.7% (9 individuals) moved to other candidates or expressed no preference.

■ Among voter panelists who supported Moon Jae-in in the 3rd survey, 93.4% (479 individuals) continued to support him in the 4th survey, showing no significant difference from Park Geun-hye's results. Of the 6.6% who withdrew their support for Moon Jae-in, 2.9% (15 individuals) shifted to Park Geun-hye, 1.3% (6 individuals) to Lee Jung-hee, and 2.5% (13 individuals) expressed no preference.

[Table 1] Changes and Directions in Candidate Support (Based on 1,183 Respondents)

- 72.5% of Undecided Voters Intend to Vote

- Undecided Voters Showed Diverse Characteristics

- 53.2% of Undecided Voters Previously Supported Ahn Chee-chong

■ Considering the neck-and-neck support race, the key to the election outcome lies with the undecided voters, those who answered they have 'no candidate to support.' In the 4th presidential panel survey, the proportion of undecided voters was 6.9% (90 individuals), and the election outcome could potentially change depending on their choice.

■ Among these 90 undecided voters, the proportion intending to vote (definitely vote + probably vote) was 72.5%, which is not a low figure. This indicates that a significant portion of these undecided voters have not yet decided whom to vote for, rather than having decided not to vote.

■ Examining the characteristics of the 90 undecided voters, 54.0% were male and 46.0% were female. In terms of age, the 19-29 age group constituted the largest proportion at 32.5%, while the 50s and 60+ age groups were the smallest at 11.8% and 12.5%, respectively. Regarding ideological orientation, 25.3% identified as progressive, 42.5% as moderate, and 28.7% as conservative.

■ However, a considerable proportion of these undecided voters were found to be supporters of former independent candidate Ahn Chee-chong. In the 2nd presidential panel survey (conducted from October 11th to 14th, with 76 out of 90 undecided voters participating), 53.2% of these undecided voters stated they supported Ahn Chee-chong.

■ Among these individuals, 6.5% stated they supported Park Geun-hye in the 2nd survey, and 11.4% supported Moon Jae-in. Furthermore, 27.6% stated they had no candidate to support.

[Figure 6] Characteristics of Undecided Voters (%)

- Positive Evaluation of Former Candidate Ahn's Support for Candidate Moon: 45.6% Among Undecided Voters

- 94.4% of Candidate Moon's Supporters

■ Regarding former candidate Ahn Chee-chong's support for candidate Moon Jae-in, 57.3% of voter panelists responded positively (very positive + generally positive). 40.3% responded negatively (very negative + generally negative), and 2.4% were unsure/did not respond.

■ Naturally, these evaluations varied depending on the preferred candidate. Among Park Geun-hye's supporters, 21.2% responded positively (very positive + generally positive), while among Moon Jae-in's supporters, the positive evaluation rate (very positive + generally positive) reached 94.4%.

■ In contrast, the evaluation among undecided voters (90 individuals) was divided. 45.6% responded positively, and 45.4% responded negatively. Considering that many of these undecided voters previously supported former candidate Ahn Chee-chong, it can be inferred that a significant portion still holds negative views towards presidential candidates other than Ahn Chee-chong.

[Figure 7] Evaluation of Former Candidate Ahn's Support (%)

3. Election Issues

- Agreement with the 'Regime Judgment' Argument: 69.3%

- Among Park Geun-hye's Supporters, Agreement Rate is 48.8%

■ Among the election mottos used during the campaign period are the 'regime judgment' argument and the 'irresponsible opposition party' argument. Firstly, regarding the statement, "What do you think about the argument that the failures of the Lee Myung-bak administration must be judged in this election?", 69.3% responded with agreement (very agree + generally agree), confirming a high level of agreement among voter panelists with the regime judgment argument. 29.4% disagreed (strongly disagree + somewhat disagree), and 1.2% were unsure/did not respond.

■ This high level of agreement is also observed among Park Geun-hye's supporters. Among Park Geun-hye's supporters, the agreement rate was 48.8%, which was not significantly different from the disagreement rate of 49.5%.

[Figure 8] Agreement with the Regime Judgment Argument (%)

[Figure 9] Agreement with the Regime Judgment Argument by Supporter (%)

4. Political Efficacy and Next Government's Policy Agendas

1) Political Efficacy

- A Few People Control State Affairs: 81.7%

- Politicians Change After Election: 92.0%

■ One of the reasons voters participate in elections is to gain a sense of efficacy from politics. The lack or limitation of political efficacy is also related to the emergence of the 'Ahn Chee-chong phenomenon.' In response to the statement, "In Korea, a few people control the government and politics, regardless of the will of the majority of citizens," 81.7% agreed (very agree + generally agree), while only 16.5% disagreed (strongly disagree + somewhat disagree).

■ Regarding the statement, "Generally, politicians act quite differently after being elected compared to during the election," which reflects the degree of disappointment and distrust in politicians, 92.0% of voter panelists agreed (very agree + generally agree). Only 7.4% disagreed (strongly disagree + somewhat disagree), and 0.6% were unsure/did not respond.

[Figure 10] Survey Results on Perceived Political Efficacy (%)

- Can Speak One's Mind to the Government: 58.4%

- My Vote is Important: 89.3%

■ However, the desire for political participation among voter panels was found to be high. First, regarding the statement, “People like us have no right or ability to speak about what the government does,” 40.2% answered yes, while 58.4% answered no. The proportion of undecided/no response was 1.4%.

■ Regarding the statement, “Since so many people vote, it doesn't matter whether I vote or not,” only 9.9% answered yes, while 89.3% answered no. The proportion of undecided/no response was 0.8%.

[Figure 11] Survey Results on Political Efficacy (%)

- Little difference in political efficacy among supporters of different candidates

■ This perception of political efficacy among voter panels was consistent across analyses by candidate support. First, regarding the statement that a small number of people control the government and politics, 72.2% of Park Geun-hye supporters answered yes. The response rate among Moon Jae-in supporters was 90.9%. The response rate for those who answered no was 84.6%.

■ Regarding the statement that politicians behave differently before and after elections, 87.7% of Park Geun-hye supporters answered yes. The response rate among Moon Jae-in supporters was 95.6%, and the response rate for those who answered no was 96.1%.

■ Although the response rate was relatively lower among Park Geun-hye supporters compared to Moon Jae-in supporters, this does not mean that the level of disappointment or distrust in politics is lower. In other words, it can be seen that both Moon Jae-in supporters and Park Geun-hye supporters have strong disappointment and distrust in politics.

■ Regarding the statements “People like us have no right or ability to speak about the government” and “My vote does not matter,” the proportion answering no was higher. First, regarding “People like us have no right or ability to speak about the government,” 55.7% of Park Geun-hye supporters answered no. Among Moon Jae-in supporters, 62.2% answered no, and among those who answered no, 52.9% answered no.

■ Regarding “My vote does not matter,” 88.0% of Park Geun-hye supporters and 91.7% of Moon Jae-in supporters answered no. The response rate for those who answered no was 84.8%.

[Figure 12] Survey Results on Political Efficacy by Candidate Support (%)

2) Top National Policy Tasks for the Next Government

- 1st in economic polarization, 3rd in quality of life improvement

- 2nd is economic growth

■ Regarding the top priority national policy tasks for the next government, voters in the panel were more likely to order improvements in distribution, such as alleviating economic polarization (30.2%) and improving the quality of life (17.3%), rather than economic growth (21.6%). The proportion of respondents who selected national integration or political reform was 7.5% and 7.4% respectively, while the proportion who answered strengthening national security, enhancing international competitiveness, educational reform, or improving inter-Korean relations was less than 5%.

[Figure 13] Top Priority National Policy Tasks for the Next Government (%)

- 1st for Park Geun-hye supporters is economic growth, 27.9%

- 1st for Moon Jae-in supporters is alleviating economic polarization, 37.8%

■ The ranking of priority national policy tasks for the next government varied depending on which candidate was supported. For voters who supported Park Geun-hye, the proportion of respondents who selected economic growth was the highest at 27.9%, followed by alleviating economic polarization and improving the quality of life at 24.9% and 13.1% respectively. These results were similar to the third survey conducted in November. In the third survey as well, economic growth was selected as the top priority national policy task for the next government by the highest proportion, 27.9%.

■ For voters who supported Moon Jae-in, the results differed from those who supported Park Geun-hye. The tasks with the highest response rates were alleviating economic polarization (37.8%) and improving the quality of life (37.8%). The proportion of respondents who selected economic growth was 14.4%. Comparing these survey results with those of the third survey reveals a notable point. In the third survey, the number of voter panelists who identified as supporters of Moon Jae-in was 513.

■ In this fourth survey, the number of voter panelists who identified as supporters of Moon Jae-in was 602, an increase of 89 compared to the third survey. Not only did the number of voter panelists supporting Moon Jae-in increase, but there were also some differences in the response rates for priority national policy tasks. Alleviating economic polarization increased from 36.3% to 37.8%, while economic growth decreased from 15.2% to 14.4%. Although these changes are within the margin of error, they suggest that voter panelists who shifted their support to Moon Jae-in are more likely to prioritize aspects of distribution.

■ Another characteristic of Moon Jae-in supporters can be observed when comparing them with supporters of the Democratic United Party. Among voter panelists who identified as supporters of the Democratic United Party, the proportion who selected economic growth as the top priority national policy task for the next government was 21.1%. In contrast, the proportion who answered alleviating economic polarization was 33.5%.

■ This result shows a difference from the response rates of Moon Jae-in supporters and suggests that voter panelists supporting Moon Jae-in may have been drawn for reasons other than party affiliation.

[Table 2] Top Priority National Policy Tasks for the Next Government by Candidate and Party Support (%)