[Public Opinion Brief No. 127] Voter Panel's Support Changes After Opposition Candidate Consolidation

[Public Opinion Brief No. 127] Joint Presidential Panel Survey by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research

1. Park Geun-hye vs. Moon Jae-in: Park Geun-hye's Narrow Lead Within the Margin of Error

2. Changes in Support Base and the Movement of Ahn Cheol-soo's Supporters

3. Loyalty of the Two Leading Candidates' Support Bases

4. Park Geun-hye's Limitation: The Top Candidate Who Should Not Be Elected

5. Candidate Favorability and Perceptions of Ideological Leanings

6. Stagnation in Party Support Rates and the Choices of Unaffiliated Voters

7. Key Considerations for Presidential Candidate Support

1. Park Geun-hye vs. Moon Jae-in: Park Geun-hye's Narrow Lead Within the Margin of Error

- Compared to the 2nd presidential survey, Park Geun-hye's support increased by 11.8%p and Moon Jae-in's by 19.4%p

- Effect of the reorganized bipolar structure

■ Support rates were surveyed by asking respondents, "If tomorrow were the presidential election day, whom would you vote for among the following candidates: Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in, Lee Jung-hee, and others?"

■ The survey results showed that with Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal, both Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in saw their support rates increase. Park Geun-hye held a narrow lead with 45.0% support, compared to Moon Jae-in's 43.2%, within the margin of error.

■ Compared to the 2nd presidential survey, Park Geun-hye's support increased by 11.8 percentage points (p), and Moon Jae-in's by 19.4 percentage points (p). This indicates that Ahn Cheol-soo's former supporters were not entirely absorbed by Moon Jae-in after the opposition's consolidation of candidates.

[Figure 1] Changes in Support Rates of Major Presidential Candidates (Multi-candidate Race, %)

■ Comparing this to the bipolar race results of the 2nd presidential survey, where Park Geun-hye had 47.4% and Moon Jae-in had 48.8%, it is evident that the reorganization into a bipolar structure due to the opposition's candidate consolidation did not significantly benefit Moon Jae-in.

2. Changes in Support Base and the Movement of Ahn Cheol-soo's Supporters

- Park Geun-hye's supporter retention rate: 94.8%; Moon Jae-in's supporter retention rate: 89.7%

- Candidate Park Geun-hye absorbed 35.9% of undecided voters and 15.0% of former candidate Ahn's supporters.

- Candidate Moon Jae-in absorbed 25.6% of undecided voters and 64.1% of former candidate Ahn's supporters.

■ We will examine the effect of the opposition party's unification through changes in candidate support bases. As shown in [Table 1], only 64.1% of former candidate Ahn's supporters were absorbed into candidate Moon Jae-in's support base, while 15.0% moved to candidate Park Geun-hye, and 18.7% moved to the undecided group.

■ In the case of candidate Park Geun-hye, the reason for her superiority over candidate Moon Jae-in is that she maintained 94.8% of her supporters from the second survey while absorbing 35.9% of undecided voters and 15.0% of former candidate Ahn's supporters.

■ Candidate Moon Jae-in maintained 89.7% of his support base from the second survey, absorbed only 64.1% of former candidate Ahn's supporters, and only attracted 25.6% of the unaffiliated voters. This indicates that the effect of the opposition party's unification was not fully realized.

[Table 1] Changes in Presidential Candidate Support Bases: Comparison of 2nd and 3rd Presidential Survey Results (%)

3. Support Base Loyalty of the Two Leading Candidates

- Weakened Support Base Cohesion

- Impact of Former Candidate Ahn's Supporters and Undecided Voters

■ Candidate Park Geun-hye's strength is likely her solid support base. However, this conventional wisdom appeared to have softened in the current survey. Regarding the intensity of support for candidates, Park Geun-hye showed a strong support base of 78.8%, not significantly different from Candidate Moon Jae-in's 74.1%. Rather, the cohesion or loyalty of her support base appears to have weakened. In fact, compared to the second survey conducted previously, the loyalty of both candidates' support bases has weakened. In the second panel survey of the last presidential election, the percentage of strong supporters for Candidate Park Geun-hye was 87.3%, and for Candidate Moon Jae-in, it was 82.8%.

■ This is likely due to the low loyalty of voters who switched from former candidate Ahn's support base or the undecided group. Therefore, although the undecided group is not large, it suggests the possibility of cross-movement of support bases through the official election campaign.

[Figure 2] Support Base Loyalty of the Two Leading Candidates (Very Strong + Strong, %)

4. Park Geun-hye's Limitation: Top Candidate to Not Be Elected

- 23.5% of undecided voters and 30.4% of unaffiliated voters chose candidate Park Geun-hye

- Veto sentiment against candidate Moon Jae-in is also increasing

■ The limitation of candidate Park Geun-hye's expansionary power can be found in the fact that she has consistently been ranked as the number one candidate who should not be elected president. In this survey as well, the proportion of respondents who thought candidate Park Geun-hye should not be elected was 25.8%. Although this figure is slightly lower than in the second survey, it remains high compared to the first survey. This also serves as evidence that the veto bloc against candidate Park Geun-hye is firmly established. This is confirmed by the fact that the veto bloc against candidate Park Geun-hye is not limited to candidate Moon Jae-in or opposition party supporters, but includes 23.5% of undecided voters and 30.4% of unaffiliated voters.

■ In the case of candidate Moon Jae-in, the proportion of veto sentiment has gradually increased from 4.3% in the first presidential survey, 7.4% in the second survey, to 9.5% in this third survey. This increase in veto sentiment occurred as he emerged as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate and the opposition party's unified candidate was confirmed. However, there is a difference compared to candidate Park Geun-hye, as only 5.7% of undecided voters and 4.4% of unaffiliated voters are included in Moon Jae-in's veto bloc.

[Figure 3] Candidate Who Should Not Be Elected (%)

5. Changes in Presidential Candidate Favorability and Ideological Perception

- Favorability for both candidates declined concurrently

- Candidate Park Geun-hye maintains a conservative image, while candidate Moon Jae-in has moved towards the center

■ When asked to rate presidential candidates on a scale of 1 to 10, both candidates showed a slight decrease in favorability compared to the second presidential survey. Candidate Moon Jae-in (5.7 points) maintained an advantage over candidate Park Geun-hye (5.4 points).

[Figure 4] Candidate Favorability (Points)

■ Regarding the perception of candidates' ideological leanings, candidate Park Geun-hye failed to improve her image as a conservative politician, despite her recent welfare initiatives. On a scale where 0 represents very progressive and 10 represents very conservative, candidate Park Geun-hye's ideological score was 7.1 points in the April survey (National Assembly Election 2nd survey) conducted after the general elections, and it remained unchanged at 7.1 points in this survey. The Saenuri Party's ideological score was also measured at 7.1 points.

■ In contrast, candidate Moon Jae-in's ideological leaning was 4.5 points, indicating a slight shift towards the center from progressive (4.1 points) compared to the general election 2nd survey. This can be attributed to differentiation from the Democratic Party following a series of progressive party incidents or the influx of centrist support. The Democratic United Party's ideological score was measured at 4.5 points, up from 4.4 points.

[Figure 5] Perception of Candidate Ideological Leanings (Points)

6. Stagnation in Party Support Rates and the Choice of Unaffiliated Voters

- Saenuri Party support rate 32.8%, Democratic United Party support rate 24.4%

- Unaffiliated voters decreased from 42.7% to 38.1%

- Unaffiliated voter support: Park Geun-hye 29.6%, Moon Jae-in 45.6%

■ Although presidential candidate support rates have increased with the start of the official election campaign, the support rates for the ruling and main opposition parties have remained largely unchanged. The Saenuri Party increased by 2.0 percentage points (p) to 32.8%, but this is still below the 33.7% recorded immediately after the general elections in the first presidential survey. Despite the increase in candidate Moon Jae-in's support, the Democratic United Party's support rate has only increased by 0.9 percentage points (p) to 24.4% compared to the second survey. The proportion of unaffiliated voters has slightly decreased from the results of the second survey (42.7%), but it remains at a high level of 38.1%.

[Figure 6] Changes in Party Support Rates (%)

■ Consequently, the choice of unaffiliated voters has become a crucial variable in the presidential election. In this survey, candidate Park Geun-hye received 29.6% support among unaffiliated voters, while candidate Moon Jae-in received 45.6%. While candidate Moon Jae-in had higher support, 22.5% remained undecided, indicating a still high proportion.

■ Looking at the changes in support among unaffiliated voters, it is evident that after the opposition party's unification, support has generally shifted towards candidate Moon Jae-in or remained undecided, with some voters switching their support to candidate Park Geun-hye.

■ Examining the characteristics of these unaffiliated voters, the proportion of younger individuals is high. Specifically, the generational composition of unaffiliated voters was as follows: 20s (26.9%), 30s (25.4%), 40s (22.7%), 50s (13.6%), and 60s and above (11.4%). Within each generation, the proportion of unaffiliated voters was high among those in their 20s (56.2%) and 30s (47.3%), somewhat lower among those in their 40s (39.5%), and significantly decreased among those in their 50s (27.7%) and 60s and above (21.8%).

■ In terms of ideology, centrist voters constitute nearly half (45.5%), followed by progressive voters (28.1%) and conservative voters (24.6%). Among ideological groups, 40.9% of progressive voters, 45.0% of centrist voters, and 30.6% of conservative voters are unaffiliated.

■ Regionally, the proportion of unaffiliated voters is high in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, while other regions show similar levels around 10%. Specifically, the regional composition of unaffiliated voters is as follows: Seoul (22.4%), Gyeonggi (30.5%), Busan-Gyeongnam (13.8%), Gwangju-Jeolla (10.3%), Daejeon-Chungcheong (9.2%), Daegu-Gyeongbuk (9.2%), and Others (4.6%).

■ In conclusion, the current unaffiliated voters are primarily composed of individuals in their 20s and 30s residing in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, who predominantly hold centrist ideological views.

[Figure 7] Unaffiliated Voter Choices and Characteristics (%)

7. Key Considerations for Presidential Candidate Support

- Expanding Influence of Policy Proposals and Affiliated Parties

■ As in the previous survey, the most important consideration for supporting a presidential candidate was national administration capability (competence and experience, 35.4%). However, the second and third priorities were swapped, with ideology and policy proposals (21.1%) and morality (19.1%) following. The affiliated party (9.3%) came next, with a slight increase in its relative proportion.

■ This result also indicates that the influence of policy proposals and affiliated parties is expanding with the commencement of the official election campaign.

[Table 2] Key Considerations for Presidential Candidate Support (%)