[Public Opinion Brief No. 126] Key Results from the 3rd Presidential Election Panel Survey

[Public Opinion Brief No. 126] Jointly Conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research

1. Presidential Approval Ratings for Candidates Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in

2. Impact of Former Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's Withdrawal

3. Prepared Female President vs. Change of Government Theory

4. Perceptions of Ideology and Party Policies

1. Presidential Approval Ratings for Candidates Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in

1) Candidate Park Geun-hye 45.0% vs. Candidate Moon Jae-in 43.2%

- Women favor Candidate Park Geun-hye; Men favor Candidate Moon Jae-in

- Those in their 50s and above favor Candidate Park Geun-hye; Those in their 40s and below favor Candidate Moon Jae-in

- The Yeongnam and Chungcheong regions favor Candidate Park Geun-hye; The Honam and Gyeonggi/Incheon regions favor Candidate Moon Jae-in

■ The 3rd Presidential Election Panel Survey was conducted from November 25th to 27th, immediately after former independent presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo (hereinafter referred to as former candidate Ahn) announced his abrupt withdrawal on the night of November 23rd. Of the total 2,000 panelists, 1,416 participated in the survey, resulting in a panel retention rate of 70.8%.

■ When asked who they would vote for if the election were held tomorrow, 45.0% of the voter panel selected Candidate Park Geun-hye, while 43.2% selected Candidate Moon Jae-in, indicating a close race within the margin of error (±2.5%).

■ In addition to the close approval rating gap between Candidates Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, another notable aspect is the proportion of panelists who responded that they had no candidate to support. In this 3rd Presidential Election Panel Survey, 10.6% of the voter panel indicated they had no candidate to support. Compared to the 9.7% who responded similarly in the 2nd Presidential Election Panel Survey conducted in October, the overall change was very limited. This result alleviates concerns that many supporters might become directionless and drift following the withdrawal of former candidate Ahn.

[Figure 1] If the election were held tomorrow, who would you vote for (%)

■ The question of who respondents would vote for if the election were held tomorrow, i.e., presidential support, was analyzed using various variables. Firstly, regarding gender, Candidate Park Geun-hye received relatively more support from women (48.0%), while Candidate Moon Jae-in received relatively more support from men (47.4%).

[Figure 2] Presidential Vote by Gender (%)

■ Comparing responses by age group, Candidate Park Geun-hye showed a relative advantage among those aged 50 and above, while Candidate Moon Jae-in showed a relative advantage among those aged 40 and below. These differences were clearly reflected in the response rates. Candidate Park Geun-hye's response rate in the 50+ age group exceeded 50%, while Candidate Moon Jae-in's response rate in the 40- age group also exceeded 50%. Among those who responded 'no candidate,' the response rate for those aged 30 and below was over 10%, while for those aged 40 and above, it was below 10%. This indicates that a considerable portion of voters in their 20s and 30s have not yet decided on their preferred candidate.

[Figure 3] Presidential Vote by Age Group (%)

■ By region, Candidate Park Geun-hye showed strength in the Yeongnam and Chungcheong regions, while Candidate Moon Jae-in showed strength in the Incheon/Gyeonggi and Honam regions. The sentiment in Seoul was balanced, leaning towards neither candidate. Notably, in Seoul and Incheon/Gyeonggi, the response rate for 'no candidate' exceeded 10%, suggesting that voter sentiment in these areas could be a crucial deciding factor in the upcoming election. [Figure 4] Presidential Vote by Residential Region (%)

2) Choices of Undecided Voters

- Among undecided voters, 29.6% support Candidate Park Geun-hye, and 45.6% support Candidate Moon Jae-in

■ In the absence of former candidate Ahn, the choices of undecided voters appear to favor Candidate Moon Jae-in. Among supporters of the Saenuri Party (464 individuals), 94.3% supported Candidate Park Geun-hye, while among supporters of the Democratic United Party (345 individuals), 87.7% supported Candidate Moon Jae-in.

■ Among the undecided voters (544 individuals), who constitute a larger group than Saenuri Party supporters, 45.6% indicated support for Candidate Moon Jae-in, and 29.6% supported Candidate Park Geun-hye. Additionally, 22.5% responded that they had no candidate to support. Their choices are noteworthy in the context of the tight race between Candidates Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in.

[Figure 5] Presidential Vote by Party Affiliation (%)

3) Reasons and Strength of Support

- Reason for supporting Candidate Park Geun-hye: Ability and Experience 47.2%

- Reason for supporting Candidate Moon Jae-in: Morality, Ability and Experience, Ideology and Promises all around 20%

■ Regarding reasons for support, ability and experience, ideology and promises, and morality received the highest response rates, in that order. The response rate for party affiliation was 9.3%, while the rates for electability and region of origin were only 7.8% and 0.8%, respectively.

[Figure 6] Reasons for Supporting Presidential Candidates (%)

■ Supporters of Candidate Park Geun-hye frequently cited ability and experience, and ideology and promises as reasons for their support. Supporters of Candidate Moon Jae-in often cited morality, ability and experience, and ideology and promises. The difference in response rates was quite clear. Among those who supported Candidate Park Geun-hye, the proportion citing ability and experience was 47.2%. The proportions citing ideology/promises and morality were 19.4% and 12.9%, respectively.

■ Among those who supported Candidate Moon Jae-in, the proportion citing morality was 25.5%, ability/experience was 23.6%, and ideology/promises was 22.8%. Consequently, while ability and experience were the core reasons for supporting Candidate Park Geun-hye, multiple reasons were cited with similar frequency for supporting Candidate Moon Jae-in.

[Figure 7] Reasons for Supporting Presidential Candidates by Candidate (%)

■ Analyzing the reasons for supporting presidential candidates by age group, the proportion citing ability and experience as a reason for supporting Candidate Park Geun-hye increased with age. The proportion citing ideology and promises was relatively higher among those aged 40 and below compared to those aged 50 and above. The proportions citing morality and party affiliation did not show significant differences across age groups.

[Figure 8] Reasons for Supporting Presidential Candidates by Age Group (%)

- Strongly support: Candidate Park Geun-hye 78.8%, Candidate Moon Jae-in 74.1%

- Strength of support increases with age

- Support strength in Yeongnam and Chungcheong is stronger than in Honam and Gyeonggi/Incheon

■ Regarding the strength of support for the candidate they indicated, both supporters of Candidate Park Geun-hye and Candidate Moon Jae-in reported a high proportion of 'strongly support,' exceeding 70%.

[Figure 9] Strength of Support for Presidential Candidates (%)

■ However, the strength of support increased with age. Among those aged 19-29, 60.7% reported 'strongly support,' while among those aged 60 and above, this figure rose to 87.3%.

[Figure 10] Strength of Support for Presidential Candidates by Age Group (%)

■ Analyzing the strength of support by region, stronger support was observed in the Yeongnam and Chungcheong regions, considered strongholds for Candidate Park Geun-hye. The proportion of 'strongly support' in these regions was around 80%. In contrast, in the Honam and Gyeonggi/Incheon regions, considered strongholds for Candidate Moon Jae-in, the proportion of 'strongly support' was around 70%.

[Figure 11] Strength of Support for Presidential Candidates by Region (%)

4) Suitable and Unsuitable Candidates for President

- Suitable candidate for president: Park Geun-hye 42.1%, Moon Jae-in 40.1%

- Unsuitable candidate for president: None 40.2%, Park Geun-hye 25.8%, Moon Jae-in 9.5%

■ When asked who is a suitable presidential candidate, 42.4% selected Candidate Park Geun-hye, and 40.1% selected Candidate Moon Jae-in. These response rates are as close as their approval ratings. Regarding unsuitable candidates, i.e., those who should not be elected president, a difference emerged between Candidates Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in. The response rate for Candidate Park Geun-hye was 25.8%, while for Candidate Moon Jae-in it was 9.5%. The proportion responding 'none' was 40.2%.

[Figure 12] Suitable and Unsuitable Candidates for President (%)

■ Examining unsuitable presidential candidates based on their preferred candidate, among supporters of Candidate Park Geun-hye, the highest proportion (46.8%) responded 'none.' However, among supporters of Candidate Moon Jae-in, the highest proportion (53.1%) identified Candidate Park Geun-hye as unsuitable. Among the 149 individuals who had no preferred candidate, 23.5% identified Candidate Park Geun-hye as unsuitable, compared to 5.7% for Candidate Moon Jae-in, with the majority (52.3%) responding 'none.'

[Figure 13] Unsuitable Presidential Candidates by Preferred Candidate (%)

2. Impact of Former Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's Withdrawal

1) Positive and Negative Perceptions of Former Candidate Ahn's Withdrawal

- Former Candidate Ahn's withdrawal: Positive 39.3%, Negative 57.7%

- Negative perception: 77.0% among those with no candidate, 64.9% among former Candidate Ahn's supporters

■ Regarding former candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal, 57.7% of the voter panel perceived it negatively (very negative + somewhat negative), while 39.3% perceived it positively (very positive + somewhat positive).

[Figure 14] Positive and Negative Perceptions of Former Candidate Ahn's Withdrawal (%)

■ Analyzing by preferred candidate, among voter panelists who responded 'no candidate,' the highest proportion (77.0%) perceived former candidate Ahn's withdrawal negatively. The response rate among supporters of Candidate Park Geun-hye was also high at 74.1%. In contrast, the response rate among supporters of Candidate Moon Jae-in was 35.6%, showing a difference.

[Figure 15] Positive and Negative Perceptions of Former Candidate Ahn's Withdrawal by Preferred Candidate (%)

■ Comparing positive/negative perceptions of former candidate Ahn's withdrawal by preferred candidate in the 2nd survey, among supporters of Candidate Park Geun-hye (497 individuals), 21.1% perceived it positively, and 74.2% perceived it negatively. Among supporters of Candidate Moon Jae-in (322 individuals), 71.1% perceived it positively, and 28.9% perceived it negatively. Among supporters of former candidate Ahn, 33.6% responded positively, and 64.9% responded negatively. Among the 117 individuals who had no preferred candidate, 44.3% perceived the withdrawal positively, and 50.9% perceived it negatively.

[Figure 16] Positive and Negative Perceptions of Former Candidate Ahn's Withdrawal by Preferred Candidate in 2nd Presidential Election Survey (%)

■ By age group, the proportion perceiving former candidate Ahn's withdrawal positively was relatively higher among those in their 40s and 50s. Conversely, the response rates were lower among those in their 30s and below, and those aged 60 and above.

[Figure 17] Positive and Negative Perceptions of Former Candidate Ahn's Withdrawal by Age Group (%)

■ By region, the proportion of respondents who perceived Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal positively was high at 60.2% in the Gwangju/Jeonnam/Jeonbuk region, while in all other regions, the proportion who perceived it negatively was higher than the proportion who perceived it positively.

[Figure 18] Perception of Ahn Cheol-soo's Withdrawal by Region (%)

- Among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, 64.1% shifted their votes to Moon Jae-in, and 15.0% shifted to Park Geun-hye.

- The proportion of supporters who shifted to having no preferred candidate was 18.7%.

■ When examining the vote shifts solely among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, the proportion who shifted to Moon Jae-in was 64.1%, and the proportion who shifted to Park Geun-hye was 15.0%. The proportion who shifted to having no preferred candidate was 18.7%.

[Figure 19] Vote Shifts of Ahn Cheol-soo's Supporters (%)

2) Ahn Cheol-soo's Future Course of Action

- 63.5% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters believe he should actively help Moon Jae-in.

- 77.2% believe he should continue in politics.

■ We asked Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters about his future course of action. First, regarding the statement that he should actively help Moon Jae-in, 63.5% agreed. The proportion who disagreed was 36.2%. Regarding the statement that he should continue in politics, 77.2% agreed, while 21.7% disagreed.

[Figure 20] Perception of Ahn Cheol-soo's Supporters Regarding Ahn Cheol-soo's Future Course of Action (%)

■ Among the supporters of other candidates, 54 shifted to Park Geun-hye, 230 to Moon Jae-in, and 67 to having no preferred candidate. These groups showed differences in their responses to the statement that Ahn Cheol-soo should actively help Moon Jae-in. Among former Ahn Cheol-soo supporters who shifted to Park Geun-hye or to having no preferred candidate, the proportion who disagreed with the statement that Ahn Cheol-soo should actively help Moon Jae-in was high at 86.1% and 61.9%, respectively. Among Ahn Cheol-soo supporters who shifted to Moon Jae-in, the proportion who disagreed was only 16.1%.

[Figure 21] Perception of Actively Helping Moon Jae-in After Vote Change (%)

■ Regarding whether Ahn Cheol-soo should continue in politics, Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters generally showed a high and consistent proportion of agreement. Both those absorbed by Park Geun-hye's support base and those who ended up with no preferred candidate showed high agreement rates in the 68% range.

[Figure 22] Perception of Continuing in Politics After Vote Change (%)

3. Prepared Female President vs. Regime Change Theory

1) Prepared Female President

- Agree: 52.5%, Disagree: 46.6%

- The proportion of agreement is high, centered around Park Geun-hye's supporters.

■ Park Geun-hye's campaign slogan is "Prepared Female President." The proportion of respondents who agreed with its meaning or intent was 52.5%, while 46.6% disagreed. Among genders, women showed a higher agreement rate at 60.5%. By age, agreement increased with age. By region, agreement was higher in the Yeongnam and Chungcheong regions, which are relatively strong bases for Park Geun-hye.

[Figure 23] Perception of "Prepared Female President" by Background Variables (%)

■ Looking at perceptions by preferred candidate, 87.9% of Park Geun-hye's supporters agreed, compared to 19.2% of Moon Jae-in's supporters. The proportion of those with no preferred candidate who agreed was only 39.2%. By supporting party, 90.6% of Saenuri Party supporters agreed, while the agreement rates for the Democratic United Party and independents were 23.7% and 40.3%, respectively. By ideological orientation, conservatives showed the highest agreement rate at 71.2%, while progressives and moderates showed agreement rates of 32.9% and 47.1%, respectively.

■ This result suggests that the favorable perception of a female president in terms of social recognition is less about the concept itself and more about the support for Park Geun-hye, which boosted the agreement rate.

[Figure 24] Perception of "Prepared Female President" by Political Consciousness (%)

2) Regime Change Theory

- Agree: 56.0%, Disagree: 42.4%

- The proportion of agreement with the regime change theory is distanced from Moon Jae-in's approval rating.

■ One of the slogans Moon Jae-in is presenting in this election is "Regime Change." Among the voter panels, 56.0% agreed with this, while 42.4% disagreed. There was no difference in agreement rates by gender. By age, agreement exceeded 50% among all age groups from 19-29 and the 40s up to the 50s. By region, the proportion of agreement was highest in the Honam region at 78.5%, followed by Gyeonggi/Incheon at 58.2%.

■ While the proportion of respondents who agree with the necessity of regime change is generally high, this result shows that this high response rate is not directly translating into Moon Jae-in's approval rating.

[Figure 25] Perception of Regime Change by Background Variables (%)

■ Regarding regime change, 88.4% of Moon Jae-in's supporters agreed, and 46.8% of those with no preferred candidate agreed. Among Park Geun-hye's supporters, 26.9% agreed with regime change. By supporting party, the proportion of agreement was highest among Democratic United Party supporters at 89.3%, followed by independents at 57.6%. Among Saenuri Party supporters, the agreement rate was 25.1%. By ideological orientation, progressives showed the highest agreement rate at 77.4%, with moderates at 60.5%. Conservatives showed an agreement rate of 37.6%.

[Figure 26] Perception of Regime Change by Political Consciousness (%)

4. Ideology and Party Policy Perception

- Ideological self-placement: Park Geun-hye 7.1, Moon Jae-in 4.5

- Clear distinction between the two parties' stances on welfare/growth and distribution/North Korea policy.

- Stance on chaebol regulation is divided within the Saenuri Party.

■ Regarding party support, the Saenuri Party had a support rate of 32.8%, and the Democratic United Party had 24.4%. Furthermore, 38.1% had no preferred party, a higher proportion.

[Figure 27] Voter Panel's Preferred Party (%)

■ When asked to rate subjective ideological orientation on a scale of 0 (very progressive) to 10 (very conservative), with 5 being moderate, the voter panels' subjective ideological orientation was 5.3. The ideological orientation of Park Geun-hye and the Saenuri Party, as rated by the voter panels, was 7.1, while that of Moon Jae-in and the Democratic United Party was 4.5. This indicates that while Moon Jae-in and the Democratic United Party were closer ideologically to the voter panels, Park Geun-hye and the Saenuri Party had higher approval ratings.

[Figure 28] Ideological Orientation (%)

■ As indicated by the voter panels' assessment of ideological orientation, the ideological distance between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, as well as between the Saenuri Party and the Democratic United Party, is significant at 2.6 points. This ideological distance is also evident in the voter panels' policy stances on welfare/growth, distribution, chaebol regulation, and North Korea policy for the Saenuri Party and the Democratic United Party.

■ Regarding welfare policy, for universal welfare, which advocates providing equal welfare services such as medical and childcare to all citizens, and selective welfare, which targets specific urgent areas and groups, the Saenuri Party's stance was predominantly selective welfare, with 70.3% of respondents choosing this option. The Democratic United Party's stance was predominantly universal welfare, with 56.6% of respondents choosing this option, showing a difference from the Saenuri Party's response rate. This difference in response rates was similarly observed between supporters of Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in.

[Table 1] Party Policy Stance: Welfare (%)

■ Regarding growth and distribution, the perceptions of voter panels on the stances of the Saenuri Party and the Democratic United Party also revealed clear differences. The proportion of respondents who stated that the Saenuri Party emphasizes growth was 60.4%, while 70.3% stated that the Democratic United Party emphasizes distribution.

[Table 2] Party Policy Stance: Growth and Distribution (%)

■ Regarding chaebol regulation, the responses were divided regarding the Saenuri Party's stance. The proportion of respondents favoring deregulation was 49.3%, while those favoring strengthened regulation was 44.7%. This result can be understood as partly influenced by the fact that the Saenuri Party initially proposed economic democratization, but the higher proportion favoring deregulation suggests that the fundamental perception of the Saenuri Party's basic stance as deregulation has not been overturned.

■ The Democratic United Party's stance was relatively clear. The proportion of voter panels who responded that strengthening chaebol regulation (77.5%) is the party's stance was significantly higher than those who favored deregulation (17.4%).

[Table 3] Party Policy Stance: Chaebol Regulation (%)

■ The assessment of the two parties' stances on North Korea policy was stark. The Saenuri Party was rated higher for maintaining/strengthening hardline policies toward North Korea, while the Democratic United Party was rated higher for strengthening inter-Korean exchange and cooperation.

[Table 4] Party Policy Stance: North Korea Policy (%)