[Opinion Briefing No. 125] The Consequences of Failed Unification: Increase in Undecided Voters, Decline in Ahn, Weakened Support for Moon

[Opinion Briefing No. 125] Joint Project by EAI and Korea Research: Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

D-30 Presidential Election Public Opinion

1. Failed Unification and Approval Ratings: Decline for Ahn, Stagnation for Park/Moon, Increase in Undecided Voters

2. Public Opinion on Candidate Unification

3. Mid-term Evaluation of Election Campaign

4. November Political Indicators

1. Presidential Election Support Ratings After Failed Unification

Increase in Undecided Voters, Declining Trend for Ahn, Weakened Support Intensity for Ahn/Moon, Increase in Undecided Voters

1) In a three-way race: Park Geun-hye 34.5%, Moon Jae-in 22.0%, Ahn Chee-wook 22.2%, Undecided 20.5%

- (October) Park Geun-hye 36.2% vs. Moon Jae-in 23.1% vs. Ahn Chee-wook 29.4%, Undecided 10.7%

● Ten days have not yet passed since candidate Ahn Chee-wook's sudden declaration to participate in unification talks on November 6th, when on the 14th, candidate Ahn Chee-wook abruptly declared an end to the unification discussions, and a tug-of-war is currently underway between the Moon Jae-in and Ahn Chee-wook camps. During this process, changes have occurred in the approval ratings of the Big 3 presidential candidates.

● In a multi-candidate race, candidate Park Geun-hye garnered 34.5%, candidate Ahn Chee-wook 22.2%, and candidate Moon Jae-in 22.0%. Among the three candidates, Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in saw their support ratings decline by only 1.7 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month. However, Ahn Chee-wook's support rating dropped by 7.2 percentage points. In the context of the failed unification, Ahn Chee-wook's support rating declined the most, as expected (Figure 1).

● Candidate Park Geun-hye, who has failed to demonstrate presence during the unification phase, appears to have been unsuccessful in gaining any backlash benefits from the failed unification. Candidate Moon Jae-in, while experiencing a relatively smaller decline in support, has seen his rapid upward trend since August falter and has not been able to absorb the support shifting away from Ahn Chee-wook. A key challenge for Moon Jae-in is that his supporters exhibit the lowest level of voting commitment among the three candidates. While 87.9% of Park Geun-hye's supporters and 85.5% of Ahn Chee-wook's supporters expressed a strong intention to vote, only 77.9% of Moon Jae-in's supporters did so (Figure 2).

● Ultimately, the characteristic outcome is that the departure of Ahn Chee-wook's supporters has led to an increase in undecided voters. The proportion of undecided voters, which was only 10.7% in the October survey, has risen to 20.5% in this survey. This suggests that voters disappointed by the failed unification have shifted to the undecided bloc, indicating a greater possibility of shifts in the election landscape depending on the developments in the unification process.

Changes in Support Intensity: "My intention to support has strengthened compared to a month ago."

Park Geun-hye (43.9%) > Moon Jae-in (36.3%) > Ahn Chee-wook (30.9%)

● Meanwhile, when asked about changes in the intention to vote for their current preferred candidate compared to a month ago, 43.9% of Park Geun-hye's supporters, 36.3% of Moon Jae-in's supporters, and 30.9% of Ahn Chee-wook's supporters responded that their intention had strengthened. Support intensity continues to strengthen most among Park Geun-hye's supporters. Conversely, those who felt their support intensity had weakened were 2.1% of Park's supporters, 7.4% of Moon's supporters, and 9.0% of Ahn's supporters, in reverse order, with the remainder reporting no change.

● Based on the response "strengthened" regarding the intention to vote for their preferred candidate, Park Geun-hye's supporters showed little change from the October survey (44.7%). However, among Moon Jae-in's supporters, the proportion who felt their support intensity had strengthened decreased by approximately 4.6 percentage points from 40.9% in October to the current survey. For Ahn Chee-wook's supporters, this figure decreased by 3.2 percentage points from 34.1% in October. This trend indicates that not only is the loyalty of Moon Jae-in's and Ahn Chee-wook's supporters weaker compared to Park Geun-hye's, but the strong support base has also weakened since November.

2) 1:1 Hypothetical Matchups: The gap between Park vs. Ahn and Park vs. Moon narrows

- (November) Park Geun-hye 42.4% vs. Ahn Chee-wook 46.8% / Park Geun-hye 42.0% vs. Moon Jae-in 44.0%

- (October) Park Geun-hye 42.0% vs. Ahn Chee-wook 51.8% / Park Geun-hye 43.8% vs. Moon Jae-in 47.5%

● The failed unification has led to a weakening of support for candidates Ahn Chee-wook and Moon Jae-in in hypothetical 1:1 matchups, resulting in a narrowing of the gap compared to October. In the hypothetical matchup between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Chee-wook, the gap was 9.2 percentage points in the October survey (Park 42.0%, Ahn 51.8%), but it narrowed to 4.4 percentage points in the November survey (Park 42.4%, Ahn 46.8%), falling within the margin of error.

● Meanwhile, in the hypothetical matchup between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, the gap also narrowed significantly. In the October survey, it was Park 43.8% vs. Moon 47.5%, while in the November survey, it became 42.0% vs. 44.0%, a difference of 2 percentage points, indicating a near-even race (Figure 5). Considering only those with a strong intention to vote, the gap between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Chee-wook was 3.7 percentage points (43.4% vs. 47.1%), and between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, it was 0.9 percentage points (43.4% vs. 44.3%) (Figure 6).

2. Public Opinion on Candidate Unification

Pressure for Unification Increases, While the Gap Between Democratic Party Supporters and Unaffiliated Voters Widens

1) Candidate Unification: Rising Public Opinion on the Necessity of Unification, Sharp Increase Among Ahn Chee-wook's Supporters

Support for Unification: September 44.8% → October 48.7% → November 51.1%

Moon Supporters 83.9%→84.8%, Ahn Supporters 62.6%→71.7%↑

● Since the September survey, public opinion favoring unification between the two candidates has shown a consistent upward trend. In the September survey, 44.8% believed that "Ahn Chee-wook should unify with Moon Jae-in," while 30.4% believed that "He should not unify with Moon Jae-in." Those who responded "don't know" accounted for 24.9%. In the October survey, support for unification was 48.7% and opposition was 27.9%, with undecided responses at 23.4%. In the November survey, support rose to 51.1%, opposition decreased to 22.8%, and undecided responses increased to 26.1%. While support for unification has increased and opposition has decreased compared to September, the significant proportion of undecided responses remains noteworthy.

● As the unification process has faced setbacks, the pressure for unification has actually intensified among supporters of both candidates. Among Moon Jae-in's supporters, the proportion favoring unification was 83.9% in the October survey and remained at a high level of 84.8% in the November survey. In contrast, among Ahn Chee-wook's supporters, 54.7% believed unification should occur in the September survey, increasing to 62.6% in October, and in the November survey, 71.7% expressed a desire for unification with Moon Jae-in. Among undecided voters, who showed only 34.8% support for unification in October, 47.0% responded that unification was necessary in this survey. It can be analyzed that voters who expressed support for unification last month have now moved into the undecided bloc due to the current failed unification process, leading to an increase in support for unification among undecided voters (Figure 7-1).

2) Unification with Whom? Ahn's Decline, Moon's Rise

All Respondents) Ahn Chee-wook 34.4%→38.4%→32.1%, Moon Jae-in 41.8%→ 43.0%→47.4%

Anti-Park Supporters) October Ahn 44.4% vs. Moon 41.8% → November Ahn 36.1% vs. Moon 48.3%

Non-Saenuri Supporters) October Ahn 40.9% vs. Moon 46.2% → November Ahn 36.4% vs. Moon 49.8%

● When asked whether unification should be with candidate Moon Jae-in or candidate Ahn Chee-wook, 32.1% of all respondents chose Ahn Chee-wook, and 47.4% chose Moon Jae-in. This widens the gap compared to the October survey, where 38.4% supported Ahn Chee-wook and 43.0% supported Moon Jae-in, with Moon Jae-in leading (Figure 7-2).

● Meanwhile, among Park Geun-hye's supporters, 45.7% supported Moon and 24.5% supported Ahn. Among Saenuri Party supporters, only 59.6% supported Moon and 25.4% supported Ahn, which could significantly distort the support for the unified opposition candidate.

● Therefore, when extracting respondents who do not support Park Geun-hye in the multi-candidate race and examining their preferred unified candidate, Ahn Chee-wook narrowly led in the October survey (Ahn 44.4% vs. Moon 41.8%), but this preference reversed in the November survey (Ahn 36.1% vs. Moon 48.3%) (Figure 7-3). Looking at non-Saenuri Party supporters based on party affiliation, the preference had already reversed in the October survey (Ahn 40.9% vs. Moon 46.2%), and the gap widened further in the November survey (Ahn 36.4% vs. Moon 49.8%) (Figure 7-4). While Ahn Chee-wook still shows greater competitiveness in overall 1:1 hypothetical matchups, it is confirmed that his preference as a unified candidate has weakened.

Democratic Party Supporters: October Ahn 36.4% < Moon 56.2% → November Ahn 31.9% < Moon 59.6%

Unaffiliated Voters: October Ahn 44.9% > Moon 20.7% → November Ahn 42.9% > Moon 30.5%

● The differing preferences between Democratic Party supporters and unaffiliated voters regarding the unified candidate are still evident in the November survey. However, it is confirmed that support for Moon Jae-in has strengthened in both the Democratic Party supporter and unaffiliated voter segments. In the October survey, among Democratic Party supporters, the support for Ahn Chee-wook vs. Moon Jae-in as a unified candidate was 36.4% vs. 56.2%, indicating increased support consolidation for Moon Jae-in. Conversely, among unaffiliated voters, support for Ahn Chee-wook was 44.9% and for Moon Jae-in was 20.7%. However, in the November survey, 59.6% of Democratic Party supporters chose Moon Jae-in, while 42.9% of unaffiliated voters supported Ahn Chee-wook, and support for Moon Jae-in rose to 30.5%.

3) Failed Unification, Who is Responsible? Moon 23.3%, Ahn 9.1%, Similar 56.7%

Democratic Party Supporters: Moon Responsible 19.1%, Ahn Responsible 13.6%, Similar 59.4%

Unaffiliated Voters: Moon Responsible 23.5%, Ahn Responsible 0.2%, Similar 62.7%

● Regarding responsibility for the current failed unification, the majority view (56.7%) is that both sides are similarly responsible, with slightly more respondents placing blame on Moon Jae-in (23.3%) than on Ahn Chee-wook (9.1%).

● Among Democratic Party supporters, 59.4% believed both sides were similarly responsible, but a significant portion (19.1%) pointed to Moon Jae-in's responsibility, and 13.6% attributed it to Ahn Chee-wook, both higher than the overall average. Among unaffiliated voters, 23.5% blamed Moon Jae-in, while only 0.2% blamed Ahn Chee-wook, with the majority (62.7%) holding both parties jointly responsible.

4) Analysis of Unified Candidate Preference Types

Non-Ahn/Non-Moon 45.8%, Simultaneous Ahn/Moon Support 36.5%, Ahn Support/Non-Moon 10.3%, Moon Support/Non-Ahn 7.4%

● By dividing the responses to the hypothetical matchups (Park vs. Ahn and Park vs. Moon) into categories of supporting Park and not supporting Ahn (Non-Ahn support type) and supporting Park and not supporting Moon (Non-Moon support type), and then cross-tabulating them, we can derive four types of attitudes towards a unified candidate (Table 1).

● ① represents the Non-Moon/Non-Ahn support type. In the October survey, this group constituted approximately 41.8% of all voters, but after the failed unification process, it increased to 45.8% in the November survey. Among these, excluding those who did not respond, 34.4% indicated they would support candidate Park in both hypothetical matchups. In the October survey, this figure was 35.7% out of 41.5% of the Non-Moon/Non-Ahn support type, showing no significant difference.

● Conversely, ④ represents the type that supports either opposition candidate regardless of who becomes the unified candidate (Simultaneous Ahn/Moon Support type). That is, 36.5% of voters will vote for an opposition candidate regardless of who it is. In the October survey, this proportion was 41.2%, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points.

● The Ahn Support/Non-Moon Support type (②) consists of voters who would vote for Ahn Chee-wook if he were the unified candidate but would shift to Park Geun-hye or another candidate if Moon Jae-in were the unified candidate. This group constitutes 10.3% of all voters. In the October survey, it was 10.6%, showing no significant difference. The Moon Support/Non-Ahn Support type (③) consists of voters who would support Moon Jae-in if he were the unified candidate but would defect if Ahn Chee-wook were the unified candidate, accounting for 7.4%. In the October survey, this figure was 6.3%, also showing no significant difference.

● Consequently, compared to October, the proportion of voters in the Simultaneous Ahn/Moon Support type, who would vote for either opposition candidate regardless of who emerges, has decreased after the failed unification, while the Non-Moon/Non-Ahn type has increased. This presents a challenge regardless of who becomes the unified candidate. Of course, the increase in the Non-Moon/Non-Ahn type does not directly translate into an increase in consistent supporters for candidate Park, as it includes those who would support Park in both hypothetical matchups. However, the increase in conditional defectors from the opposition camp—those who might switch depending on the unified candidate—by 10.4 percentage points (45.9% of Non-Moon/Non-Ahn minus 34.4% consistent Park supporters) can be considered an unfavorable change for the opposition at the very least.

● On the other hand, if Ahn Chee-wook becomes the unified candidate, the support from type ② (Ahn Support/Non-Moon) and type ④ (Simultaneous Ahn/Moon Support) combined amounts to 46.8%. If Moon Jae-in becomes the unified candidate, the support from type ③ (Moon Support/Non-Ahn) and type ④ (Simultaneous Ahn/Moon Support) combined is 43.9%. This suggests a potential expansion effect of 2.9 percentage points in favor of Ahn Chee-wook when he unifies. In the October survey, type ② was 10.6% and type ③ was 6.3%, indicating a relative advantage of 4.3 percentage points for Moon Jae-in due to anti-Ahn sentiment. While this is within the margin of error and thus not conclusive, it suggests a trend where Ahn Chee-wook's expansion potential is decreasing in November.

3. Mid-term Evaluation of Election Campaign

Voting Intention Increased Compared to June, While Election Interest Remains Stagnant

● The voters' intention to vote, measured by the proportion expressing a strong intention to vote, has increased compared to the June survey. In the June survey, 73.0% responded that they would definitely vote, while in the November survey, this figure increased to 82.3%. Although the voting intention question has limitations in accurately predicting actual voter turnout due to its socially desirable nature, the increase in voting intention since June appears clear.

● However, interest in the current presidential election has shown little change, confirming that the current election campaign has not made significant progress in generating voter interest. The election interest question also has a tendency for socially desirable responses. Therefore, excluding passive interest, we analyze based on the proportion expressing strong interest. In the June survey, 44.1% expressed strong interest in the current election, and this figure remained unchanged in the November survey.

Regionalism Weakened 65.3%, Policy-Centered Election 55.7%, Negative Campaigning Weakened 48.5%

● With about 30 days left until the presidential election, we asked voters to evaluate the ongoing campaign process in terms of regional mobilization, the lack of policy debates, and negative campaigning, which have been persistent issues in Korean elections. Voters perceive regional mobilization as having improved the most (65.3%), with 55.7% agreeing that the election has been policy-centered so far. However, only 48.5% agreed that negative campaigning has weakened.

4. November Political Indicators

Approval Rating for State Affairs 27.4%, Party Support: Saenuri 39.1%, Democratic United Party 38.9%

● The approval rating for state affairs in November was 27.4%. Despite significant events that could influence the president's approval rating, such as the ongoing special prosecutor investigation related to the Dogok-dong residence, the president's approval rating has remained in the high 20s without significant fluctuation, as public attention has been focused on the presidential candidate unification issue. Meanwhile, party support ratings have remained neck-and-neck between the Saenuri Party and the Democratic Party for the third consecutive month. In the September survey, the Saenuri Party's support dropped by 6.0 percentage points from August to 40.2%, while the Democratic United Party rose by 4.3 percentage points to 39.1%, reaching a near-equal level. The October survey also showed a balance for two consecutive months with Saenuri Party at 41.8% and Democratic United Party at 40.3%. In the November survey, the Saenuri Party stood at 39.1% and the Democratic United Party at 38.9%, remaining at very similar levels. The Unified Progressive Party garnered 2.9% and the split-off Justice Party received 1.9%.