[Public Opinion Brief No. 123] Key Results of the 2nd Panel Survey for the 2012 Presidential Election

[Public Opinion Brief No. 123] Jointly by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research

1. Competitiveness of the Big Three Presidential Candidates

2. Analysis of Support Factors

3. Opposition Unity Candidate and Independent Candidate

4. Election Interest and Outlook for Political Development

1. Competitiveness of the Big Three Presidential Candidates

1) Park Geun-hye in a multi-candidate race, Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo in a two-candidate race

- Multi-candidate race: Park Geun-hye 38.2%; Two-candidate race: Moon Jae-in 48.8%, Ahn Cheol-soo 50.6%

■ EAI, in collaboration with SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research, conducted the 2nd Presidential Panel Survey from October 11th to 14th, a four-day period. This follows the panel survey conducted twice before and after the April 11th general election, and the 1st Presidential Panel Survey conducted in August. The number of voter panelists participating in this 2nd Presidential Survey was 1,527.

■ According to the results of the 2nd Presidential Survey (4th survey based on the general election and presidential panel), in a multi-candidate scenario, candidate Park Geun-hye had the highest support rate at 38.2%. Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate was 27.5%, and candidate Moon Jae-in's support rate was 23.9%. The proportion of respondents who answered they had no candidate to support was 9.7%.

■ In a two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, and between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo showed higher support rates compared to Park Geun-hye. Specifically, in the two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, Moon Jae-in's support rate was measured at 48.8%, indicating a win over Park Geun-hye, who garnered 47.4% support, within the margin of error (±2.5%). In the two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate was 50.6%, leading Park Geun-hye, who received 44.7% support, by 5.9 percentage points (p).

[Figure 1] Presidential Candidate Support Rates in a Multi-Candidate Scenario (%)

[Figure 2] Presidential Candidate Support Rates in a Two-Candidate Scenario (%)

- Multi-candidate race: Ahn Cheol-soo for 20s, mixed for 30s-40s, Park Geun-hye for 50s and above

- Two-candidate race: Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo for 20s-40s, Park Geun-hye for 50s and above

■ An analysis of the support distribution for the Big Three candidates (Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in, Ahn Cheol-soo) was conducted based on age group and region of residence. Firstly, in terms of age group and a multi-candidate race, 46.6% of those in their 20s supported candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. The proportion supporting candidate Moon Jae-in was 25.1%, and the proportion supporting candidate Park Geun-hye was 18.3%. Others/None accounted for 10.0%.

■ In the 30s-40s age group, a truly mixed situation emerged. Among the 30s, candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate was relatively high at 33.8% compared to the other two candidates, but this represented a decrease of over 10 percentage points (p) compared to his support rate among those in their 20s.

■ Candidate Moon Jae-in's support rate was 30.6%, closely trailing Ahn Cheol-soo, and candidate Park Geun-hye's support rate was also high at 26.8%. Consequently, it was evident that no single candidate dominated this age group.

■ Among those in their 40s, candidate Moon Jae-in had the highest support rate at 30.9%. Candidate Park Geun-hye's support rate was 29.6%, and candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate was 27.7%. Compared to the 30s, the support gap among the Big Three candidates in their 40s was narrower, indicating a more intense competition.

■ Among those aged 50 and above, Park Geun-hye showed a clear dominance. The proportion of respondents supporting Park Geun-hye in their 50s was 52.2%, and for those aged 60 and above, it was 64.1%. The support rates for Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo were around 10-20%, with no significant differences between them. In their 50s, Moon Jae-in's support rate was 20.7%, and Ahn Cheol-soo's was 17.9%.

■ Among those aged 60 and above, the proportion supporting Moon Jae-in was only 11.4%, and the proportion supporting Ahn Cheol-soo was 12.9%.

■ Unlike in the multi-candidate scenario, the age-based support differences were clear in the two-candidate race. Those in their 20s-40s showed higher support rates for Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo, while those aged 50 and above showed higher support rates for Park Geun-hye.

■ Specifically, in the two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, approximately 60% of respondents in their 20s-40s supported Moon Jae-in. The proportion supporting Park Geun-hye in these age groups was in the 30% range.

■ In contrast to the 20s-40s, among those in their 50s, the proportion supporting Park Geun-hye was 58.5%, while the proportion supporting Moon Jae-in was 36.9%. Among those aged 60 and above, Park Geun-hye's support rate was an overwhelming 71.2%, with Moon Jae-in's support rate remaining at 22.5%.

■ In the two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, the age-based differences in support were more pronounced compared to the race with Moon Jae-in. Among those in their 20s-40s, the proportion supporting Ahn Cheol-soo increased compared to the support for Moon Jae-in, while among those aged 50 and above, the proportion supporting Park Geun-hye increased compared to the support for Moon Jae-in.

- Park Geun-hye in Yeongnam and Chungcheong

- Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo in the Seoul Metropolitan Area and Honam

■ Examining support rates by region of residence, it is evident that in a two-candidate race, Park Geun-hye's support is primarily driven by the Daegu/Gyeongbuk, Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam, and Daejeon/Chungcheong regions. In all these areas, Park Geun-hye's support rate significantly exceeded 40%.

■ The region where candidate Moon Jae-in garnered the highest support was Gwangju/Jeolla, with a support rate of 34.5%. However, this support rate in Gwangju/Jeolla was lower than Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate of 43.8% and lower than Park Geun-hye's support rate in all other regions.

■ Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo also achieved his highest support rate in the Gwangju/Jeolla region and showed the same support rate as Park Geun-hye in the Incheon/Gyeonggi region. In all other regions, his support rate did not surpass Park Geun-hye's.

■ Analyzing the support rates for Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo by region of residence, Ahn Cheol-soo showed relative superiority in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Daejeon/Chungcheong, and Gwangju/Jeolla regions. In contrast, Moon Jae-in only significantly led Ahn Cheol-soo in Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam.

■ In the two-candidate race, both Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo showed similar patterns. Park Geun-hye demonstrated relative superiority in support in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk, Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam, and Daejeon/Chungcheong regions. Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo showed relative superiority in support in Gwangju/Jeolla, Seoul, and Incheon/Gyeonggi.

[Figure 3] Results by Contest Scenario: Age Group (%) [Figure 4] Results by Contest Scenario: Region of Residence (%)

Note: Jeju and Gangwon, with small panel numbers, were excluded from the analysis.

- Women favor Park Geun-hye

- Men favor Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo

■ A gender-based analysis reveals that, in both multi-candidate and two-candidate races, women showed a higher proportion of support for Park Geun-hye compared to men. In the multi-candidate race, 35.6% of men supported Park Geun-hye. Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate was 28.9%, and Moon Jae-in's was 27.0%. Among women, the proportion supporting Park Geun-hye was 40.7%, higher than the results for men. Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate was 26.4%, and Moon Jae-in's was 20.9%.

■ An interesting finding is the relatively significant difference in support rates for Moon Jae-in between women and men. Women's support rate for Moon Jae-in was 20.9%, while men's was 27.0%.

■ In the two-candidate race as well, women's support rate for Park Geun-hye was higher than that of men. In the race against Moon Jae-in, her support rate was 50.8%, and against Ahn Cheol-soo, it was 47.9%, surpassing the support rates from men in both cases. However, in the case of Ahn Cheol-soo, he garnered 47.0% support from women, indicating he is closer to women's sentiments compared to Moon Jae-in.

■ However, these support characteristics among women differ from the overall support rates that include men. This implies that men's support characteristics also differ from those of women.

■ In fact, men showed lower support rates for Park Geun-hye than women in both multi-candidate and two-candidate races. Specifically, in the two-candidate race against Ahn Cheol-soo, the proportion of men supporting Park Geun-hye was 41.4%, while the proportion supporting Ahn Cheol-soo reached 54.2%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points (p).

■ These gender-based differences in support suggest that the Big Three candidates need to pay more careful attention to capturing voter sentiment, not only based on age group and region but also by gender.

- Undecided voters lean towards Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in

■ As expected, there are support rate differences based on party affiliation. Supporters of the Saenuri Party overwhelmingly supported Park Geun-hye, while supporters of the Democratic United Party overwhelmingly supported Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo.

■ The difference is observed among undecided voters. The support of these undecided voters generally leans towards Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in. In the multi-candidate race, the most preferred candidate among undecided voters was Ahn Cheol-soo. His support rate was 40.0%, higher than Park Geun-hye's 23.0% and Moon Jae-in's 21.6%.

■ In the two-candidate race, Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate was also higher than that of Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in. The proportion of undecided voters supporting Ahn Cheol-soo was 63.9%, more than double the proportion supporting Park Geun-hye (30.2%).

■ Furthermore, this rate was higher than Moon Jae-in's support rate of 57.8% in the two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in. This indicates a strong formation of support for Ahn Cheol-soo among undecided voters.

[Figure 5] Results by Contest Scenario: Gender (%) [Figure 6] Results by Contest Scenario: Party Affiliation (%)

2) How Strongly and Why They Support

- Strong support: Park Geun-hye 83.0%, Ahn Cheol-soo 79.2%, Moon Jae-in 74.8%

- Strong support: 60 and above 89.9%, 20s 66.2%

- Regions with strong support: Daegu/Gyeongbuk > Daejeon/Chungcheong > Gwangju/Jeolla

■ Among the 1,527 voter panelists who participated in the 2nd Presidential Survey, 1,378 answered that they had a candidate they supported. When asked about the strength of their support among these individuals, 79.6% answered they strongly supported their candidate, while 20.3% answered they weakly supported them. This means that eight out of ten voter panelists strongly support their chosen candidate.

[Figure 7] Strength of Support for Preferred Candidate (%)

■ Examining the proportion of those who answered they strongly supported their candidate, i.e., strong support, by age group, all age groups 40 and above showed response rates above 80%. In their 30s, 76.6% also answered they strongly supported their candidate, but the response rate among those in their 20s was relatively lower at 66.2%.

■ By region of residence, the proportion of respondents who answered they strongly supported their candidate was high in Daegu/Gyeongbuk (86.1%) and Daejeon/Chungcheong (84.4%). Conversely, Incheon/Gyeonggi and Seoul showed differences from other regions, with response rates below 80%.

[Figure 8] Strength of Support by Age Group (%) [Figure 9] Strength of Support by Region of Residence (%)

■ An analysis of the strength of support for preferred candidates by contest scenario revealed that, in a multi-candidate race, the strength of support among voter panelists who supported Park Geun-hye was strong at 83.0%. The proportion of respondents who answered they strongly supported Ahn Cheol-soo was 79.2%, and the response rate for Moon Jae-in was lower at 74.8%.

■ However, the results in the two-candidate race showed a different pattern compared to the multi-candidate race. While Park Geun-hye maintained relative superiority, the gap with other candidates narrowed. In the two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, the proportions of respondents who answered they strongly supported were 80.3% and 78.9%, respectively. In the two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, the response rates were 81.2% and 78.6%, respectively.

[Figure 10] Strength of Support by Contest Scenario (%)

* Don't know/No response excluded

- Comparative advantage in reasons for support: Park Geun-hye = ability and experience, Moon Jae-in = integrity, Ahn Cheol-soo = ideology and platform

■ Regarding the reasons for supporting their preferred candidate, 38.9% cited the candidate's capabilities and experience. 23.1% cited the candidate's morality, and 19.7% cited the candidate's ideology and pledges. In contrast, responses citing the affiliated party, likelihood of winning, and region of origin were minority opinions.

[Figure 11] Reasons for Support (%)

■ A breakdown of support reasons by candidate reveals certain differences. First, among the reasons cited by voters supporting Park Geun-hye, the proportion citing capabilities and experience was highest at 51.5%, followed by morality at 16.0% and ideology and pledges at 10.5%.

■ For Moon Jae-in, the proportion citing morality was highest at 31.7%, followed by capabilities and experience (28.5%) and ideology and pledges (23.1%).

■ For Ahn Cheol-soo, the proportion citing capabilities and experience was 30.7%, and the proportion citing ideology and pledges was 29.2%. The proportion citing morality was 25.6%.

■ Differences in reasons for support were also evident across age groups. As shown in [Figure 13], the proportion citing capabilities and experience or morality tended to increase with age, while the proportion citing ideology and pledges tended to decrease with age.

[Figure 12] Reasons for Support by Candidate (%) [Figure 13] Reasons for Support by Age Group (%)

* Excludes 'Don't know/No response'

3) Who Switched and Why

- The top reason for withdrawing support was concern over state management capabilities.

- Ahn Cheol-soo supporters moved to Moon Jae-in.

■ In the second presidential election survey, conducted in August, a total of 288 voter panels indicated they had switched their preferred candidate or had no preferred candidate compared to the first survey. An investigation was conducted into the reasons for these 288 individuals withdrawing their support.

■ The survey results showed that the proportion of respondents citing unstable state management capabilities and 'other' reasons were both highest at 25.3%. The proportion citing staff or associates was 12.3%, while the proportions citing low likelihood of winning and policy or ideology were 9.8% and 9.5%, respectively. The proportion citing disappointment with their affiliated party was 8.5%, and the proportion citing moral issues was 6.6%.

[Figure 14] Factors for Candidate Support Change (%)

■ Then, who did the 288 voters who changed their preferred candidate or answered they had no preferred candidate turn to? What were the reasons? First, among the 288, 32 moved to candidate Park Geun-hye, 116 to candidate Moon Jae-in, and 59 to candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. 68 moved to having no preferred candidate. Considering only the top three candidates, Moon Jae-in was the biggest beneficiary.

■ Examining the reasons for changing preferred candidates, among the 73 who cited instability in state management capabilities, 50.7% moved to candidate Moon Jae-in, the highest proportion. The proportion moving to candidate Park Geun-hye was 19.2%, and to candidate Ahn Cheol-soo was 13.7%. As a result of changing preferred candidates due to instability in state management capabilities, Moon Jae-in was the biggest beneficiary, and conversely, Ahn Cheol-soo was the biggest loser.

■ In the case of 'Other' (72 people), the proportion moving to 'no preferred candidate' was the highest at 45.8%. For those who cited 'staff or people around them' as the reason, the proportions moving to candidate Ahn Cheol-soo and candidate Moon Jae-in were 36.1% and 33.3% respectively, higher than the 8.3% for candidate Park Geun-hye.

■ Furthermore, Moon Jae-in saw a notable shift in support among those citing low probability of winning, disappointment with their affiliated party, and moral issues. This result indicates that the rise in Moon Jae-in's approval rating is attributable to various factors.

[Table 1] Results of Preferred Candidate Changes by Factor (%)

[Figure 15] Results of Preferred Candidate Changes by Factor (%)

2. Analysis of Support Factors

1) Favorability, Familiarity, and Trust in the Top Three Candidates

- Favorability: Moon Jae-in = Ahn Cheol-soo > Park Geun-hye

- Friendliness: Ahn Cheol-soo > Park Geun-hye > Moon Jae-in

- Trustworthiness: Park Geun-hye > Ahn Cheol-soo > Moon Jae-in

■ The results of a survey asking respondents to rate their favorability toward the top three candidates on a scale of 0 (dislike very much) to 10 (like very much) showed that the average favorability score for Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo was 5.9 points. The favorability score for Park Geun-hye was 5.6 points.

[Figure 16] Big 3 Favorability Average Scores [Figure 17] Big 3 Favorability Results (%)

* Don't know/No answer excluded

■ In the survey on which candidate elicited the most familiarity, Ahn Cheol-soo received the highest response rate at 36.3%. The response rate for Park Geun-hye was 32.9%, and for Moon Jae-in, it was 26.1%. These survey results differ from the approval ratings for Park Geun-hye, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Moon Jae-in in a multi-candidate race.

■ The results of familiarity by age group are also interesting. Park Geun-hye's familiarity rating was around 50% among those aged 50 and above. Ahn Cheol-soo had an overwhelming response rate among those in their 20s and 30s. In contrast, Moon Jae-in showed a consistent response rate of 20-30% across age groups except for those 60 and above, and garnered relatively high familiarity compared to Park Geun-hye among those aged 20 to 40, and compared to Ahn Cheol-soo among those aged 50.

[Figure 18] Big 3 Friendliness Results (%) [Figure 19] Big 3 Friendliness Results by Age Group (%)

■ The trust survey results showed that Park Geun-hye was the most trusted candidate, with a response rate of 37.5%. The response rate for Ahn Cheol-soo was 29.0%, and for Moon Jae-in, it was 25.2%.

■ Analyzing the survey results by age group reveals three characteristics. First, the results for those aged 50 and above show a significant divergence. Specifically, the proportion of respondents who trusted Park Geun-hye in the 50s age group was 50.1%, and in the 60+ age group, it reached 65.7%.

■ Second, the low response rate for Park Geun-hye among those in their 20s and 30s. The response rate for Park Geun-hye in the 20s was only 17.4%, and in the 30s, it was 23.8%.

■ Third, the chaotic situation among those in their 40s. No candidate dominated the response rates in the 40s age group. Moon Jae-in had the highest response rate at 33.1%, while Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo each received 29.8%.

[Figure 20] Big 3 Trustworthiness Results (%) [Figure 21] Big 3 Trustworthiness Results by Age Group (%)

* Don't know/No answer excluded

2) Perceptions of Top Three Candidates Regarding Key National Policy Tasks for the Next Government

- 1st: Alleviating Economic Polarization, 2nd: Economic Growth

■ When asked about the key national policy tasks for the next government, which will officially launch in 2013, the highest response rate, 27.9%, was for alleviating economic polarization. This aligns with the fact that the top three candidates are also allocating significant attention to issues of polarization, economic democratization, and welfare among their key campaign pledges.

■ However, it is also noteworthy that 24.6% of voter panels selected economic growth as a key national policy task for the next government, an area where the top three candidates have relatively de-emphasized. Given the difficulty in separating economic growth from economic polarization, it appears that more effort is needed in developing pledges related to economic growth to win the support of a larger number of voters.

■ Other responses included improving quality of life at 17.2%, national integration and political reform at 7.0%, and strengthening national security at 5.2%.

[Figure 22] Key State Affairs for Next Government (%)

- Park Geun-hye supporters: Economic Growth

- Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo supporters: Alleviating Economic Polarization

- Competence for State Affairs: Park Geun-hye > Ahn Cheol-soo > Moon Jae-in

■ The key national policy tasks for the next government also varied depending on the candidate supported. Voter panels supporting Park Geun-hye most frequently selected economic growth (32.8%). Voter panels supporting Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo selected alleviating economic polarization at rates of 35.1% and 32.2%, respectively.

■ However, the survey results did not show stark contrasts. Regardless of the candidate supported, alleviating economic polarization, economic growth, and improving quality of life received higher response rates compared to other national policy tasks.

[Table 2] Key State Affairs for Next Government by Supporter (%)

■ When asked who is most qualified to resolve the key national policy tasks for the next government, 34.5% of voter panels selected Park Geun-hye. The response rate for Ahn Cheol-soo was 29.6%, and for Moon Jae-in, it was 23.2%.

■ Analyzing by age group, the response rates for each candidate showed relatively clear differences. Among those aged 50 and above, Park Geun-hye was selected more frequently. Among those in their 20s and 30s, Ahn Cheol-soo was selected more frequently. Moon Jae-in showed a consistent response rate of around 30% from the 20s to the 40s.

[Figure 23] Competence for State Affairs (%) [Figure 24] Competence for State Affairs by Age Group (%)

* Don't know/No answer excluded

■ The results of the survey asking who is most qualified for the aforementioned key national policy tasks for the next government generally showed a high proportion of respondents selecting the candidate they support as the most qualified. However, there were differences. Among Park Geun-hye's supporters, 80.1% responded that Park Geun-hye is the most qualified. The response rate for Ahn Cheol-soo supporters was 77.5%, and for Moon Jae-in supporters, it was 71.0%.

■ When analyzing the most qualified candidate for key national policy tasks by party affiliation, a mixed situation emerged. Among Saenuri Party supporters, 37.4% selected Park Geun-hye, 32.8% selected Moon Jae-in, and 27.3% selected Ahn Cheol-soo.

■ Among Democratic United Party supporters, more respondents selected Park Geun-hye or Ahn Cheol-soo than Moon Jae-in. Among independents, Ahn Cheol-soo received a response rate of 40.1%, approximately double that of the other two candidates. Consequently, it can be observed that the correlation between the most qualified candidate for key national policy tasks and party affiliation is not high.

[Figure 25] Competence for State Affairs by Supporter (%) [Figure 26] Competence for State Affairs by Party Support (%)

* Don't know/No answer excluded

- Candidate most likely to achieve economic prosperity: 1st, Park Geun-hye

- Candidate most likely to understand the difficulties of the common people: 1st, Moon Jae-in

- Park Geun-hye is the top candidate for state administration.

■ When asked which candidate they believed would lead to economic prosperity, 37.1% of the voter panel chose Park Geun-hye. Ahn Cheol-soo was chosen by 27.1%, and Moon Jae-in by 18.9%, a relatively lower proportion compared to the other two candidates.

■ By age group, Park Geun-hye showed a high proportion of responses among those aged 50 and above. However, younger generations did not exclusively choose Ahn Cheol-soo or Moon Jae-in. While the proportion of respondents who chose Ahn Cheol-soo in the 20s to 40s age groups was in the 30% range, the difference compared to the proportions for Park Geun-hye or Moon Jae-in was within 10%.

[Figure 27] Candidate for Economic Administration (%) [Figure 28] Candidate for Economic Administration by Age Group (%)

* "Don't know/No answer" excluded

■ For the question of which candidate would best understand the difficulties of ordinary people, Moon Jae-in received the highest proportion of responses at 38.8%. Park Geun-hye was chosen by 26.9%, and Ahn Cheol-soo by 24.7%.

■ The age-based differences also varied from the results of other questions. While the overwhelming support for Park Geun-hye among those aged 60 and above was maintained, there was no significant difference with Moon Jae-in among those in their 50s. The overwhelming support for Ahn Cheol-soo in the 20s was also not discernible due to the rise of Moon Jae-in. In the 30s and 40s, the proportion of respondents choosing Moon Jae-in was in the 40% range, significantly surpassing the proportions for the other two candidates.

[Figure 29] Candidate for Policies for the Common People (%) [Figure 30] Candidate for Policies for the Common People by Age Group (%)

* "Don't know/No answer" excluded

■ When asked which candidate would best manage state affairs, Park Geun-hye received 47.2% of the responses, a figure higher than the combined proportions for Moon Jae-in (29.0%) and Ahn Cheol-soo (14.8%).

■ The analysis by age group also showed Park Geun-hye's dominance continuing. Among those aged 40 and above, the proportion of respondents who believed Park Geun-hye would best manage state affairs was higher compared to the other two candidates. Moon Jae-in received 37.6% in the 20s and 37.4% in the 30s, showing relatively high response rates compared to the other two candidates. However, no age group showed Ahn Cheol-soo as the preferred candidate for state administration compared to the other two. This indicates that expectations for Ahn Cheol-soo's state administration capabilities are relatively low.

[Figure 31] Candidate for State Administration (%) [Figure 32] Candidate for State Administration by Age Group (%)

* "Don't know/No answer" excluded

3. United Opposition Candidate and Independent Candidate

1) Likelihood of Winning and Candidate Unification

- Projection of Likelihood of Winning: Park Geun-hye 54.2%, Moon Jae-in 19.4%, Ahn Cheol-soo 18.6%

- Park Geun-hye has a higher chance of winning in a head-to-head matchup.

■ Regarding the projection of the likelihood of winning, Park Geun-hye received 54.2% of the responses, reaching a majority. In the projection of winning by candidate support, supporters of Park Geun-hye showed strong confidence in her victory, whereas this level of confidence was relatively weaker among supporters of Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo.

[Figure 33] Projection of Likelihood of Winning (%) [Figure 34] Projection of Likelihood of Winning by Supported Candidate (%)

* "Don't know/No answer" excluded

■ The projection of Park Geun-hye's likelihood of winning, based on the candidate supported, was also evident in a head-to-head contest. In a contest between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, 84.2% of Park Geun-hye's supporters projected her victory. Among Moon Jae-in's supporters, 37.4% projected Moon Jae-in's victory, 29.2% projected Ahn Cheol-soo's victory, and 26.4% projected Park Geun-hye's victory.

■ In a head-to-head contest between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, the proportion of Park Geun-hye's supporters projecting her victory reached 83.8%. Among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, 32.8% projected Ahn Cheol-soo's victory, showing a difference compared to the proportion of Park Geun-hye's supporters projecting her victory.

[Figure 35] Projection of Likelihood of Winning in a Head-to-Head Contest (%)

* "Don't know/No answer" excluded

■ This strength of Park Geun-hye in terms of likelihood of winning was also reflected in the results by region of residence and age group. Firstly, by region of residence, the only region where the projection of Park Geun-hye's victory did not reach a majority was Gwangju/Jeolla. In all other regions, the likelihood of Park Geun-hye's victory was projected at over 50%.

■ By age group, the proportion of respondents projecting Park Geun-hye's victory exceeded 50% for all age groups 50 and above. In the 20s to 40s age groups, the proportion of respondents projecting Park Geun-hye's victory was approximately double that of Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo. This signifies that a high proportion of the voter panel projects Park Geun-hye's victory as likely.

[Table 3] Projection of Likelihood of Winning by Region of Residence and Age Group (%)

2) Is Candidate Unification Necessary?

- Unification of opposition candidates is necessary: 51.3%

- Moon Jae-in supporters 82.1%, Ahn Cheol-soo supporters 67.4%, Park Geun-hye supporters 22.6%

■ The fact that many voter panel members projected a high likelihood of Park Geun-hye's victory can be interpreted as strengthening the necessity of unification between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo for voters who do not support Park Geun-hye. Among the total voter panel, the proportion of respondents who believed unification between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo was necessary was 51.3%.

[Figure 36] Perception of the Necessity of Opposition Candidate Unification (%)

■ Analysis of the necessity of unification by supported candidate showed the highest proportion of "necessary" responses among Moon Jae-in's supporters at 82.1%. The proportion for Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters was 67.4%, and for Park Geun-hye's supporters, it was 22.6%.

■ Examining the necessity of unification by age group, the response rate was over 50% in the 20s to 40s age groups, which are important support bases for Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo. Furthermore, even among those aged 50 and above, the proportion of respondents who favored unification exceeded that of those who favored independent candidacies. This indicates a strong pressure for unification between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo.

[Figure 37] Perception of Necessity of Unification by Supported Candidate (%) [Figure 38] Perception of Necessity of Unification by Age Group (%)

* "Don't know/No answer" excluded

■ Comparing the perception of the likelihood of winning with the necessity of unification, among those who projected Moon Jae-in's victory, the proportion responding that unification was necessary was highest at 79.1%. Among those who projected Ahn Cheol-soo's victory, the proportion responding that unification was necessary was 69.7%. Among those who projected Park Geun-hye's victory, the proportion was lowest at 36.0%.

[Figure 39] Comparison of Perception of Likelihood of Winning and Necessity of Unification (%)

3) If So, Unification Under Whom?

- Democratic United Party supporters and unaffiliated voters: 44.4% for Moon Jae-in, 37.4% for Ahn Cheol-soo

- Democratic United Party supporters: 59.8% for Moon Jae-in, 31.7% for Ahn Cheol-soo

- Unaffiliated voters: 40.9% for Ahn Cheol-soo, 36.0% for Moon Jae-in

- 20s for Ahn Cheol-soo, 40s and above for Moon Jae-in

■ Although there is strong pressure for unification between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo, opinions are divided on whom the unification should be with, i.e., the direction of unification.

■ To enhance the reliability of the survey results, an analysis of only Democratic United Party supporters and unaffiliated voters showed that 44.4% (452 out of 1,017) responded that unification should be with Moon Jae-in, which is 7.0 percentage points (p) higher than the 37.4% (383 out of 1,017) who responded that unification should be with Ahn Cheol-soo. The proportion of those who answered "don't know" was 17.9% (182 out of 1,017).

[Figure 40] Direction of Opposition Candidate Unification Among Democratic Party Supporters and Unaffiliated Voters (%)

■ Analyzing the direction of unification by party support, supporters of the Saenuri Party preferred unification with Moon Jae-in at 43.3%, which is higher than the 30.1% who preferred unification with Ahn Cheol-soo. This indicates a relatively stronger sense of caution towards Ahn Cheol-soo.

■ Among Democratic United Party supporters, the proportion responding that unification with Moon Jae-in is necessary was high at 59.8% (245 out of 359). Among unaffiliated voters, the proportion responding Ahn Cheol-soo was 40.9% (269 out of 657), which is higher than the proportion for Moon Jae-in at 36.0% (237).

■ By age group, in the 20s, the proportion responding that unification with Ahn Cheol-soo is necessary was 45.0%, higher than the 36.9% who responded that unification with Moon Jae-in is necessary. For ages 30 and above, the responses favoring unification with Moon Jae-in were more numerous than those favoring unification with Ahn Cheol-soo.

[Figure 41] Direction of Unification by Party Support (%) [Figure 42] Direction of Unification by Age Group (%)

* "Don't know/No answer" excluded

■ Comparing the projection of likelihood of winning with the direction of unification, among voter panel members who responded that Park Geun-hye would win, the proportion favoring unification with Moon Jae-in was 44.3%, higher than the 33.1% favoring unification with Ahn Cheol-soo. In cases where Moon Jae-in was projected to win, unification with Moon Jae-in was favored, and in cases where Ahn Cheol-soo was projected to win, unification with Ahn Cheol-soo was favored.

■ These survey results signify not only that Park Geun-hye's supporters are relatively more wary of Ahn Cheol-soo than Moon Jae-in, but also that the gap between Moon Jae-in's and Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters is by no means narrow. This is because a significant proportion of supporters for both candidates project the necessity of unification with their respective favored candidate.

[Figure 43] Comparison of Projection of Likelihood of Winning and Direction of Unification (%)

4) Voter Opinions on an Independent President

- It is acceptable to have an independent president: 57.8%

- Park Geun-hye supporters 41.1%, Moon Jae-in supporters 54.5% agree

■ Amidst the controversy surrounding the "no independent candidate" stance for Ahn Cheol-soo, this second survey for the presidential election showed a strong sentiment that an independent president is acceptable, contrary to the sharp political debates. Among the voter panel, 57.8% responded that an independent president is acceptable, while 33.2% responded that an independent president is not acceptable.

[Figure 44] Stance on Independent Presidential Candidates (%)

■ Examining the stance on independent presidents by supported candidate, only among Park Geun-hye's supporters was the proportion responding that an independent president is not acceptable higher. Among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters and even Moon Jae-in's supporters, the proportion responding that an independent president is acceptable was high at 69.6% and 57.2%, respectively.

■ When examined by party affiliation, the proportion of respondents who answered that an independent president would be acceptable was high among supporters of the Democratic United Party and among undecided voters, excluding supporters of the Saenuri Party.

[Figure 45] Stance on Independent President by Candidate Support (\%) [Figure 46] Stance on Independent President by Party Affiliation (\%)

* Don't know/No answer excluded.

■ Examining the stance on an independent president by region of residence and age group, first, regarding region of residence, the proportion of respondents who answered that an independent president would be acceptable was higher than the proportion who answered that an independent president would not be acceptable in all regions. In Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam (37.3%), Daegu/Gyeongbuk (37.2%), and Daejeon/Chungcheong (37.1%), the proportion of respondents who answered that an independent president would not be acceptable was relatively high compared to other regions, but this was still lower than the proportion who answered that an independent president would be acceptable.

■ In terms of age group, the proportion of respondents who answered that an independent president would not be acceptable was over 40% among those aged 50 and above, but in all other age groups, approximately 60-70% of voter panels answered that an independent president would be acceptable.

[Table 4] Stance on Independent President by Region of Residence and Age Group (\%)

4. Election Interest and Prospects for Political Development

1) Election Interest and Slogans

- If the administration changes, politics will improve compared to now 59.0%

■ Regarding the question of whether to participate in the election in December, 93.0% of the voter panel responded that they would vote. Among these, the proportion of voter panel members who expressed an intention to vote actively, stating "I will definitely vote," was 83.4%. The proportion of respondents who stated they would not vote was only 2.8%. The high intention to vote in the presidential election is understood as a reflection of the characteristics of the voter panel survey.

[Figure 47] Presidential Election Voting Intention (%)

■ Regarding the assertion that politics will improve if the administration changes in the current election, the proportion of respondents who agreed was 59.0%. The proportion of respondents who disagreed was 38.8%.

[Figure 48] Perception of Linkage between Administration Change and Political Development (%)

■ Examining the agreement with the assertion that politics will improve with an administration change, by candidate support, supporters of Moon Jae-in and Ahn Chee-chong showed a high proportion of agreement. In contrast, among Park Geun-hye's supporters, the proportion who disagreed (49.0%) was higher than the proportion who agreed (47.5%).

■ When examined by age group, the proportion of respondents who agreed was higher than the proportion who disagreed in all age groups. This result offers insight into the expectations of voter panel members for the next government.

[Figure 49] Perception by Candidate Support (%)                                        [Figure 50] Perception by Age Group (%)

- Slogan Agreement: Political Reform > National Unity > Administration Change

■ Park Geun-hye's slogan is national unity, Moon Jae-in's is administration change, and Ahn Chee-chong's is political reform. A survey was conducted on voter panel members to gauge their perception of the importance of the slogans put forth by the top three candidates.

■ The election slogan that received the highest proportion of responses indicating importance was political reform. 30.9% of voter panel members responded that political reform is important. The proportion who cited national unity was 29.8%, and the proportion who cited administration change was 21.8%. The proportion who cited "other" was 14.8%.

■ Examining the importance of election slogans by age group, national unity was preferred by those aged 50 and above, while political reform was preferred by those aged 20 to 40. For administration change, the proportion of responses was higher than for national unity among those in their 20s and 30s.

■ Consequently, national unity, primarily advocated by Park Geun-hye, showed a relatively high proportion of responses among those aged 50 and above, mirroring the generational support for Park Geun-hye. Administration change, primarily advocated by Moon Jae-in, showed relatively consistent response proportions across the 20s to 40s age groups. Similarly, political reform, advocated by Ahn Chee-chong, also showed consistent response proportions across the 20s to 40s age groups, indicating a similarity with generational support for both candidates.

[Figure 51] Importance of Top 3 Election Slogans (%)                                [Figure 52] Importance of Top 3 Election Slogans by Age Group (%)

- Park Geun-hye supporters: National Unity

- Moon Jae-in supporters: Administration Change

- Ahn Chee-chong supporters: Political Reform

■ Analyzing the importance of election slogans by candidate support, national unity was cited as most important by Park Geun-hye's supporters, with a response proportion of 44.4%. The proportion for political reform was 29.6%, and for administration change, it was only 8.1%.

■ For Moon Jae-in's supporters, the most frequently cited important election slogan was administration change, with a response proportion of 40.8%. Political reform followed at 27.9%, and national unity at 20.1%.

■ Among Ahn Chee-chong's supporters, political reform was cited as most important with a response proportion of 35.6%, followed by administration change at 26.9%, and national unity at 19.4%.

■ By supporting party, supporters of the Saenuri Party frequently cited national unity, while supporters of the Democratic United Party frequently cited administration change, thus mirroring the results for supporters of Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, respectively. Unaffiliated voters most frequently cited political reform, which was similar to the results found among Ahn Chee-chong's supporters.

[Figure 53] Perception of Importance of Election Slogans by Candidate Support (%)                       [Figure 54] Perception of Importance of Election Slogans by Supporting Party (%)

2) Perception of Social Values

- Social Value Perceptions are Tightly Contested

- Park Geun-hye supporters emphasize stability, growth, and security

- Moon Jae-in and Ahn Chee-chong supporters emphasize change, distribution, and human rights

■ Social values can be seen as having both present and future significance. Regarding change versus stability, 57.1% of voter panel members chose stability, which was higher than the 41.8% who chose change.

■ For growth versus distribution, 45.9% responded that growth was more important, but this was a close contest compared to the 49.9% who responded that distribution was more important.

■ In terms of national security versus human rights, 51.5% responded that national security was more important, slightly exceeding the 46.1% who responded that human rights were more important. ■ The survey results on social values alone indicate that there is no unidirectional movement in national consensus or perception. This foreshadows that the process of reaching consensus or adjustment in the realm of social values will be difficult, not only in the present but also in the immediate future.

■ Furthermore, when comparing the perception of social values by candidate support, Park Geun-hye's supporters emphasized stability, growth, and security. In contrast, Moon Jae-in's and Ahn Chee-chong's supporters emphasized change, distribution, and human rights, the opposite of Park Geun-hye's supporters.

■ This result suggests that regardless of who wins the presidential election in December, there is a possibility of facing considerable resistance and criticism in the process of pursuing policies related to social values.

[Figure 55] Perception of Social Values (%)                                        [Figure 56] Value Perception by Candidate Support (%)