[Briefing on Public Opinion No. 121] Changes in the Electoral Landscape After Ahn Cheol-soo's Withdrawal: Ahn Cheol-soo for Electability, Ahn-Moon Neck-and-Neck for Unified Candidate

[Briefing on Public Opinion No. 121] Joint Project of EAI and Korea Research

1. Presidential Approval Ratings After Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy and the Democratic Party's Primary

2. Possibility and Dilemma of Candidate Unification: Ahn Cheol-soo for Electability, Ahn-Moon Neck-and-Neck

3. Perceptual Map of Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo vs. Moon Jae-in

4. September Political Indicators: Saenuri Party's Approval Rating Declines, Democratic Party's Rises

1. Presidential Approval Ratings After Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy and the Democratic Party's Primary

- The Park-dominant structure is broken, shifting to an Ahn-Moon dominant structure

1) In a three-way race: Park Geun-hye 34.0% vs. Moon Jae-in 19.2% vs. Ahn Cheol-soo 30.6%

● On the 16th, candidate Moon Jae-in was officially selected as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, overcoming controversies over fairness in the primary and attacks from non-Moon candidates. Ahn Cheol-soo, who first revealed his political aspirations in August last year, officially announced his intention to participate in the presidential primary after a year of tedious silence. The impact was significant. According to the EAI-Korea Research September regular survey conducted on the 22nd, Park Geun-hye's approval rating, which had shown a stable lead in the 40% range in a three-way race, dropped to 34.0%. Independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo maintained a 30.6% approval rating, while the Democratic United Party's Moon Jae-in rose to 19.2%. This indicates not only a neck-and-neck race based on Ahn Cheol-soo's approval rating alone, but also that the combined approval ratings of Ahn and Moon significantly surpass Park Geun-hye's. The competitive landscape, where Park Geun-hye's approval rating was only matched by the combined support of the two opposition candidates, has been broken, shifting to a situation where the opposition candidates have the advantage.

[Figure 1] Changes in Approval Ratings in a Hypothetical Three-Way Race (%)

September Survey: Other Candidates 0.7%, Don't Know/No Response 15.5%

2) In a 1:1 hypothetical race: Park Geun-hye 39.9% vs. Ahn Cheol-soo 50.6%, Park Geun-hye 42.0% vs. Moon Jae-in 47.7%

● In a hypothetical race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, the August survey conducted from August 31st to September 1st showed a very close race with Park Geun-hye at 46.8% and Ahn Cheol-soo at 45.2%. However, in the survey conducted this month immediately after Ahn's announcement to participate in the primary, Park Geun-hye's support fell to 39.9%, while Ahn Cheol-soo's support exceeded 50% to 50.6%. This indicates a restoration of the 'Ahn Wind' Phase 1, which had a 16 percentage point gap at the beginning of the year, from the 'Ahn Wind' Phase 2, where Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo were in a close race within the margin of error after the April 11th general election victory.

● However, the biggest difference compared to 'Ahn Wind' Phase 1 is that Moon Jae-in, who showed little presence during the initial 'Ahn Wind' shock, has now overtaken Park Geun-hye even in a 1:1 race after the Democratic Party's national convention. Moon Jae-in leads Park Geun-hye at 47.7% to 42.0%, within the margin of error, marking the first time he has surpassed Park Geun-hye and demonstrated competitive parity. This situation provides him with a stronger position for future discussions on candidate unification than before.

[Figure 2] Approval Ratings in a Hypothetical 1:1 Race: Park vs. Ahn (%)

[Figure 3] Approval Ratings in a Hypothetical 1:1 Race: Park vs. Moon (%)

3) Background of the Shift in Landscape

Park Geun-hye's historical perspective on 5.16: Improved 19.2%, No Change 45.0%, Worsened 29.5%

● Following the party leadership election, Park Geun-hye's visits to the bereaved families of former presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, and laying a wreath at the statue of the late Jeon Tae-il, in what was termed a 'reconciliation move,' successfully reversed the 1:1 approval rating gap with Ahn Cheol-soo, which had been over 16 percentage points behind at the beginning of the year. However, recent statements such as '5.16 was an unavoidable choice' or ambiguous positions on the 'Inhyeokdang trial' verdict appear to have slowed her approval rating gains, contradicting her reconciliation efforts to embrace opposing factions and the middle ground. In the current survey, regarding the impact of her statements that '5.16 was an unavoidable choice' and 'the merits and demerits of the Park Chung-hee era, including the Inhyeokdang incident, should be left to historical evaluation,' 19.2% responded that their view had 'improved,' while 29.5% responded that it had 'worsened,' with 45.0% stating 'no change.' Negative public opinion was prevalent. The sentiment that her views had worsened was higher than average among those in their 20s and 40s, and in Seoul (36.4%) and the Honam region (44.0%). In Chungcheong, Gyeonggi, and Daegu/Gyeongbuk, the responses for 'improved' and 'worsened' were similar, and 'no change' was high.

[Figure 4] Impact of the Statement "Let's Leave the Historical Evaluation of the Park Chung-hee Era to History" on Public Opinion Regarding Candidate Park (%)

Statement: "5.16 was an unavoidable choice," "Let's leave the merits and demerits of the Park Chung-hee era, including the Inhyeokdang incident, to history."

● In addition, the issue of nomination fees during the April 11th general election and recent allegations of corruption involving prominent pro-Park figures such as former lawmakers Hong Sa-deok and Song Young-sun may have been more direct factors in the decline of Park Geun-hye's approval ratings. Indeed, in the 3rd Presidential Panel survey conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research in August, immediately after the primary, when asked about Park Geun-hye's direct responsibility for the Saenuri Party's proportional nomination bribery scandal, public opinion in most regions, except for Daegu/Gyeongbuk and those over 60, held Park Geun-hye directly responsible. 59.4% of the public believed Park Geun-hye bore direct responsibility, and at that time, the 1:1 approval ratings between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo were 45.3% vs. 50.5%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. Subsequently, through reconciliation efforts, she managed to regain the lead over Ahn Cheol-soo in the survey at the end of August. This suggests that criticism of current corruption and unfairness may be more direct factors in the decline of approval ratings. Coupled with major opposition party events such as the Democratic Party's presidential primary and Ahn Cheol-soo's announcement to enter the primary, this likely led to a drop of nearly 10 percentage points in approval ratings in both three-way and two-way races.

Effect of Ahn Cheol-soo's Announcement to Enter the Primary: Improved 37.1%, No Change 42.9%, Worsened 13.9%

● The rise in Ahn Cheol-soo's approval ratings in 1:1 matchups can be attributed to his announcement to run for president. When asked about the impact of Ahn Cheol-soo's announcement to run for president on their perception of him, 37.1% responded that it had improved their view, while only 13.9% said it had worsened, a difference of 23.2 percentage points. 42.9% reported no significant change. The proportion of those who felt their view had improved was high among Saenuri Party supporters (21.6%), Democratic United Party supporters (48.8%), and independents (41.1%). By ideological leaning, it was highest among progressives (48.1%), followed by centrists (36.5%), and even conservatives (31.3%). This suggests that by emphasizing a message of political integration and new politics that meets public expectations, transcending partisan politics, Ahn Cheol-soo resonated not only with his base but also with centrist, independent, and even opposing voters.

[Figure 5] Impact of Ahn Cheol-soo's Announcement to Run for President on Perceptions of Candidate Ahn (5)

● Indeed, during Phase 2 of the 'Ahn Cheol-soo Phenomenon' after the April 11th general election, when competing with Park Geun-hye, support from centrists and independents decreased compared to Phase 1. This appears to be due to fatigue from Ahn Cheol-soo's pro-opposition moves and delays in announcing his candidacy (see EAI Public Opinion Briefing No. 118). However, with his announcement to run, Ahn Cheol-soo has emphasized a message of new politics and national unity rather than his position as an opposition candidate, leading to an increase in support among centrists and independents. In the previous month's survey, centrists favored Ahn Cheol-soo 47.5% to 42.9%, but in the current survey, Ahn Cheol-soo widened the gap to 53.7% to 37.8%. Among independents, the gap widened from 46.2% to 27.1% last month to 53.4% to 16.0% this month, with Ahn Cheol-soo holding a dominant lead. Notably, in the August survey, the gap among progressives narrowed significantly to 58.5% for Ahn Cheol-soo vs. 36.4% for Park Geun-hye, but in the current survey, it widened again to 70.0% vs. 18.1%. The significant narrowing among progressives last month likely reflected a shift towards Moon Jae-in as an alternative due to growing fatigue with Ahn Cheol-soo among progressives with strong anti-Saenuri and anti-Park Geun-hye sentiments. However, his announcement to run appears to have restored support from the progressive base.

[Figure 6] Approval Ratings in 1:1 Race: Park vs. Ahn by Ideological Leaning / Party Support (%)

Democratic Party Primary and Moon Jae-in's Rising Support: Improved 44.6%, No Change 41.8%, Worsened 6.1%

● While Ahn Cheol-soo announced his candidacy and Moon Jae-in emerged as a candidate, Moon Jae-in has reaped the benefits. When asked about the impact of the Democratic Party's primary on perceptions of Moon Jae-in, 44.6% responded that it had improved their view, compared to 41.8% who reported 'no significant change' and 6.1% who said it had worsened. Although he still trails Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo in a three-way race, his lead over Park Geun-hye in a 1:1 race, albeit within the margin of error, is a stark contrast to his previous lack of a clear competitive edge against Park Geun-hye.

● Considering the primary boycott by non-Moon candidates, controversies over the fairness of mobile voting, and general noise during the Democratic Party's primary, it is difficult to attribute Moon Jae-in's rise in support directly to the primary process itself. However, the fact that he won all 16 regional contests against fierce competition likely helped alleviate the perception of his lack of political experience, similar to Ahn Cheol-soo. The perception that Moon Jae-in had improved was lower only among those in their 20s (25.3%), but higher among those in their 30s (46.1%) and 40s (55.2%). Notably, among those in their 50s and 60s who prioritize governing capabilities, 49.6% and 44.3% respectively responded that their view had improved.

[Figure 7] Impact of the Democratic Party Primary Process on Perceptions of Candidate Moon Jae-in (%)

2. Possibility and Dilemma of Candidate Unification

1) Candidate Unification: 44.8% Support Unification, 30.4% Oppose, 24.9% Don't Know

76.1% of Moon's supporters favor unification, 54.7% of Ahn's supporters favor unification, 20.4% of Park's supporters favor unification

● With Ahn Cheol-soo's announcement to run and Moon Jae-in's rise, candidate unification has emerged as the biggest variable. Overall, 44.8% of respondents believe that 'Ahn Cheol-soo should unify with Moon Jae-in,' a higher proportion than the 30.4% who believe 'he should not unify with Moon Jae-in.' However, 24.9% responded 'don't know,' indicating a significant portion of undecided voters.

● In the context of a three-way race, only 20.4% of Park Geun-hye's supporters favored candidate unification, while 42.3% opposed it, and 37.3% were undecided. Conversely, Moon Jae-in's supporters were the most enthusiastic, with 76.1% favoring unification, only 15.6% opposing, and 8.3% undecided. Among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, who have not clearly stated their position on unification, 54.7% favored unification, but opposition was also significant at 30.3%, with 15.0% undecided.

[Figure 8] Support for Ahn Cheol-soo Unifying with Moon Jae-in (%)

67.9% of those who simultaneously support Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in favor unification

● A cross-tabulation of the 1:1 races between Park vs. Ahn and Park vs. Moon reveals that 34.2% supported Park Geun-hye in both races. 41.6% supported both Ahn and Moon. Among those who supported Ahn Cheol-soo in the Park vs. Ahn race but not Moon Jae-in in the Park vs. Moon race (non-Moon Ahn supporters), there were 9.0%. Conversely, among those who supported Moon Jae-in in the Park vs. Moon race but not Ahn Cheol-soo in the Park vs. Ahn race (non-Ahn Moon supporters), there were 9.0%. Other responses accounted for 9.1%.

● Among the 41.6% of respondents who simultaneously support Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in, the largest group, 67.9% favored unification. Among Moon Jae-in's exclusive supporters, 55.6% favored unification. Among those who support only Ahn Cheol-soo and not Moon Jae-in, only 36.8% favored unification, while 47.3% opposed it. However, given the larger number of voters who simultaneously support Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo, if this trend continues, it is likely to exert political pressure on Ahn Cheol-soo to pursue candidate unification.

2) Who Should Unify? Ahn Cheol-soo 34.4% vs. Moon Jae-in 41.8%, Don't Know 23.8%

Democratic Party Supporters: Ahn 41.5% vs. Moon 44.4%, Independents: Ahn 31.8% vs. Moon 29.9% - Neck and Neck

● Regarding the unified candidate, 34.4% of all respondents supported Ahn Cheol-soo, while 41.8% supported Moon Jae-in, giving Moon Jae-in an edge. 23.8% were undecided. However, since the total respondents include Saenuri Party supporters, which could distort the unification sentiment, the situation differs when analyzed by party affiliation. Among Democratic Party supporters, 41.5% supported Ahn Cheol-soo and 44.4% supported Moon Jae-in. Conversely, among independents, 31.8% supported Ahn Cheol-soo and 29.9% supported Moon Jae-in, resulting in a neck-and-neck race. Notably, even among Democratic Party supporters, Ahn Cheol-soo's support is high.

[Figure 9] Who Should Be the Unified Candidate? (%)

Dilemma in Choosing the Unified Candidate: Ahn Cheol-soo for Electability, Moon Jae-in for Governing Capability

Electability: Ahn 41.2%, Moon 27.7%, Similar 22.7%

● While Ahn Cheol-soo is perceived as more competitive against Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in leads in the overall choice for a unified candidate, and even excluding Saenuri Party supporters, Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in are neck-and-neck. This is due to the significant differences in their strengths and weaknesses. Firstly, regarding electability, 41.2% of respondents believe Ahn Cheol-soo has a higher chance of winning, while 27.7% believe Moon Jae-in has a higher chance, and 22.7% think they are similar. It is noteworthy that Democratic Party supporters view Ahn Cheol-soo's electability more favorably. 45.3% of Democratic United Party supporters believe Ahn Cheol-soo has a higher chance of winning, compared to 28.5% who believe Moon Jae-in has a higher chance. A similar pattern is observed among independents.

[Figure 10] Assessment of Electability (%)

Governing Capability: Ahn 25.3%, Moon 40.9%, Similar 24.0%

● However, regarding governing capability, the results are almost the opposite of the electability assessment, with Ahn Cheol-soo at 25.3% and Moon Jae-in at 40.9%. 24.0% responded that they were similar. This suggests that Ahn Cheol-soo's main weakness is his inability to inspire sufficient confidence in his governing capabilities. This is likely to be the primary focus for Ahn's campaign team. This pattern is consistent among Democratic United Party supporters as well, with 29.5% believing Ahn Cheol-soo has better governing capabilities and 43.7% believing Moon Jae-in does, while 22.5% thought they were similar. However, among independents, Ahn Cheol-soo received 24.2% and Moon Jae-in 28.6%, indicating that independents do not perceive a significant advantage for Moon Jae-in in terms of governing capability.

[Figure 11] Assessment of Governing Capability (%)

3. Perceptual Map of Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo vs. Moon Jae-in

Park Geun-hye Excels in Governing Competence, Ahn Cheol-soo in Personal Charm

1) Leader Image Analysis: Park Leads in 6 Categories, Ahn in 3, Moon Receives Balanced Evaluation

Park - Patriotism 68.8%, Awareness of Current Issues 65.2%, Crisis Management Ability 57.8%, Predictability Advantage 57.5%

Ahn - Communication Skills 78.5%, Integrity 71.1%, Likeable Appearance 57.7% Lead, Lack of Experience 76.2%

Moon - Communication 68.2%, Integrity 64.3%, Likeable Appearance 63.2%, Awareness of Current Issues 61.8% - High Across the Board

● In the August survey, we compared the images of leading candidates Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo using a perceptual map based on correspondence analysis, employing political marketing techniques. The images of political leaders were categorized into governing competence and personal competence/charm. A framework of 14 leader image survey items developed by the Anglo-American joint institution MORI was partially adopted (6 items) and modified to create a total of 10 measurement items. For each candidate, we surveyed their respective images for each measurement item. In the September survey, image data for Moon Jae-in was collected using the same items and integrated with previous survey results for analysis.

● [Table 1] summarizes the response rates for each measurement item and their applicability to Park Geun-hye, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Moon Jae-in. Related to governing competence, the items included: (1) Patriotism (MORI), (2) Understanding of Korea's Current Issues (MORI), (3) Crisis Management Ability (MORI), (4) Predictability and Stability in Governing Style, and (5) Ability to Handle North-South/International Issues. For personal competence, the items were: (1) Integrity, (2) Likeable Appearance, (3) Communication with Subordinates/General Public (MORI), (4) Lack of Experience (MORI), and (5) Disregard for the Common People (MORI). The 'lack of experience' and 'disregard for the common people' items should not be confused with the interpretation of agreement/disagreement with negative statements.

● Frequency analysis results show that Park Geun-hye received high ratings in governing competence components such as patriotism (68.8%), understanding of Korea's current issues (65.2%), crisis management ability (57.8%), and predictability and stability (57.5%). In terms of personal competence, integrity (59.9%) and likeable appearance (51.1%) also exceeded 50%. In contrast, Ahn Cheol-soo received high ratings for personal competence items such as communication skills with subordinates and the general public (78.5%), integrity (71.1%), and likeable appearance (57.7%). Moon Jae-in, however, received the highest support for likeable appearance at 63.2% and generally received positive evaluations across other areas, although not always the highest. His communication skills with subordinates received 68.2%, slightly behind Ahn Cheol-soo, and his integrity was rated at 64.3%, indicating generally high personal competence. However, in terms of governing competence, he was slightly behind Park in understanding current issues at 61.8%, patriotism at 56.8%, and predictability/stability at 56.0%, receiving generally good evaluations. His crisis management ability was rated relatively lower at 41.5%.

● Regarding the 'lack of experience' item, 76.2% of respondents affirmed this for Ahn Cheol-soo, identifying it as his biggest weakness. For Park Geun-hye, the figure was 30.4%, and for Moon Jae-in, it was 39.0%, indicating that he is perceived much more favorably than Ahn Cheol-soo in this regard, only slightly behind Park. Conversely, Park Geun-hye received relatively more negative evaluations regarding communication skills. While all three candidates did not project a strong image of disregarding the common people, the item that received the most negative evaluations for all three was related to North-South/international issues, with Park Geun-hye at 41.6%, Moon Jae-in at a similar 40.8%, and Ahn Cheol-soo at the lowest 31.4%.

[Tableau 1] Modèle d'analyse de la perception de l'image des dirigeants politiques de l'EAI (modèle MORI modifié) : Pourcentage de réponses « Oui » (%)

2) Perception de l'image par analyse des correspondances

● En utilisant les données de réponse des électeurs pour chacun de ces éléments, une analyse des correspondances a été effectuée pour représenter l'image de chaque candidat sous forme de carte perceptuelle, comme illustré dans la [Figure 12]. Les résultats de l'analyse des fréquences montrent que la perception des électeurs concernant le patriotisme, la reconnaissance des problèmes actuels de la Corée, la capacité de gestion de crise et un style de gouvernance prévisible/stable est proche du candidat Park Geun-hye. En revanche, pour le Dr Ahn Cheol-soo, la capacité à communiquer avec ses subordonnés et le grand public est apparue comme un point fort. Il est positionné à proximité des autres candidats, avec une attractivité physique et une intégrité relativement proches. Pendant ce temps, le candidat Moon Jae-in a montré une image forte en termes d'attractivité physique et d'intégrité par rapport aux autres candidats, tandis que le manque d'expérience est apparu comme une image centrée sur le Dr Ahn Cheol-soo. Par ailleurs, la capacité à gérer les relations intercoréennes et les questions de sécurité est positionnée plus près des candidats Park Geun-hye et Moon Jae-in que du Dr Ahn Cheol-soo. L'image de mépris envers les classes populaires ne correspond pas à l'image des trois candidats, car leurs positions sont éloignées.

[Figure 12] Carte perceptuelle de l'image de Park Geun-hye / Ahn Cheol-soo par analyse des correspondances

4. Indicateurs politiques de septembre

Taux d'approbation du gouvernement : 23,9 % → 29,6 % → 29,8 %

Soutien aux partis politiques : Parti Saenuri 46,2 %, Parti Démocrate Uni 34,8 % → Saenuri 40,2 %, Parti Démocrate Uni 39,1 %

● Le taux d'approbation du gouvernement était de 29,8 %, sans changement significatif par rapport aux 29,6 % d'août. Après l'arrêt de la tendance à la baisse du taux d'approbation qui avait chuté avant et après les élections générales en juillet, et le retour à une tendance à la hausse, il n'y a pas eu d'augmentation supplémentaire du taux d'approbation. Cela ressemble à ce qui s'est passé pendant le gouvernement de Roh Moo-hyun, où le taux d'approbation a augmenté après une déclaration ferme contre le Japon en avril 2006 lors d'une période de baisse, et, comme à l'époque, la hausse du taux d'approbation n'a été qu'un effet passager et n'a pas duré longtemps.

● Par ailleurs, des changements significatifs sont survenus dans le taux d'approbation des partis. Lors de l'enquête d'août, le taux d'approbation du Saenuri Party était de 46,2 % et celui du Democratic United Party de 34,8 %, le Saenuri Party conservant une avance de 11,4 points de pourcentage. Cependant, lors de l'enquête de septembre, le Saenuri Party a chuté à 40,2 %, soit une baisse de 6,0 points de pourcentage, tandis que le Democratic United Party a augmenté de 4,3 points de pourcentage pour atteindre 39,1 %, se rapprochant ainsi d'un niveau quasi égal. Cela suggère une interaction avec le phénomène de la chute du taux de soutien du candidat Park Geun-hye et de la hausse des taux de soutien des candidats Ahn Cheol-soo et Moon Jae-in. Le Unified Progressive Party s'est maintenu à 4,5 %, un niveau similaire à celui du mois précédent.

[Figure 13] Évolution du taux d'approbation du gouvernement (%)

[Figure 14] Évolution du taux d'approbation des partis (%)