[Public Opinion Brief 121] Changes in the Electoral Landscape After Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy Announcement: Ahn Cheol-soo Leads in Likelihood of Winning, Ahn and Moon Neck-and-Neck in Unification Poll

[Public Opinion Brief 121] Joint Project by EAI and Korea Research

1. Presidential Approval Ratings After Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy and the Democratic Party's Primary

2. Possibilities and Dilemmas of Candidate Unification: Ahn Leads in Likelihood of Winning, Ahn and Moon Neck-and-Neck in Unification Poll

3. Perceptual Map of Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo vs. Moon Jae-in

4. September Political Indicators: Saenuri Party's Approval Rating Declines, Democratic Party's Rises

1. Presidential Approval Ratings After Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy and the Democratic Party's Primary

- The dominant position of Park has been broken, shifting to a dominant position for Ahn and Moon.

1) In a three-way race: Park Geun-hye 34.0% vs. Moon Jae-in 19.2% vs. Ahn Cheol-soo 30.6%

On September 16, candidate Moon Jae-in was officially nominated as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, overcoming controversies regarding fairness in the primary and attacks from non-Moon candidates. Ahn Cheol-soo, who first revealed his political aspirations in August of the previous year, officially announced his intention to participate in the presidential race after a year of quiet deliberation. The impact was significant. According to the EAI-Korea Research regular poll conducted on September 22, Park Geun-hye's approval rating, which had maintained a stable lead in the 40% range in a three-way race, dropped to 34.0%. Independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo maintained a 30.6% approval rating, while the Democratic United Party's Moon Jae-in showed an upward trend with 19.2%. This indicates that not only is the race competitive based on Ahn Cheol-soo's support alone, but when combined with Moon Jae-in's support, it significantly surpasses Park Geun-hye's approval rating. The competitive landscape, where Park's approval rating was only matched by the combined support of the two opposition candidates, has shifted to a scenario where the opposition candidates hold the advantage.

[Figure 1] Approval Rating Changes in a Hypothetical Three-Way Race (%)

September Poll: Other Candidates 0.7%, Don't Know/No Response 15.5%

2) In a hypothetical one-on-one race: Park Geun-hye 39.9% vs. Ahn Cheol-soo 50.6%; Park Geun-hye 42.0% vs. Moon Jae-in 47.7%

In the hypothetical one-on-one race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, the poll conducted from August 31 to September 1 showed Park Geun-hye at 46.8% and Ahn Cheol-soo at 45.2%, indicating a very close race. However, in the poll conducted this month immediately after Ahn's announcement to enter the race, Park Geun-hye's support dropped to 39.9%, while Ahn Cheol-soo's support exceeded 50%, reaching 50.6%. This suggests a restoration of the 'Ahn Wind' Phase 1 dynamics, which had previously shown a 16%p gap, from the 'Ahn Wind' Phase 2 dynamics where Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo were in a close contest within the margin of error.

However, the most significant difference from 'Ahn Wind' Phase 1 is that Moon Jae-in, who showed little presence during the initial 'Ahn Wind,' has now overtaken Park Geun-hye even in a one-on-one race, according to this poll, following the Democratic Party's national convention. Moon Jae-in's approval rating is 47.7% compared to Park Geun-hye's 42.0%, marking the first time he has led Park Geun-hye within the margin of error. This demonstrates his competitive capability and establishes a favorable condition for him to exert greater influence in subsequent candidate unification discussions.

[Figure 2] Approval Ratings in a 1:1 Hypothetical Race: Park vs. Ahn (%)

[Figure 3] Approval Ratings in a 1:1 Hypothetical Race: Park vs. Moon (%)

3) Background of the Shift in Dynamics

Park Geun-hye's Historical Perception of the May 16 Coup: Improved 19.2%, No Change 45.0%, Worsened 29.5%

Following the party leadership election, Park Geun-hye's visits to the families of former presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, and her floral tribute at the statue of labor activist Jeon Tae-il, were perceived as efforts towards reconciliation. These actions helped her regain the lead in the one-on-one race against Ahn Cheol-soo, which had been trailing by over 16%p in early January. However, recent remarks, such as describing the May 16 coup as an 'unavoidable choice' or expressing ambiguous stances on the 'Inhyeokdang trial' verdict, appear to have slowed her momentum. These actions seem to contradict her reconciliation efforts aimed at attracting opposition and centrist voters. In the current poll, regarding the impact of her statements that the May 16 coup was an 'unavoidable choice' and that the 'achievements and failures of the Park Chung-hee era, including the Inhyeokdang incident, should be left to historical evaluation,' 19.2% responded that their opinion of Park Geun-hye had improved, while 29.5% said it had worsened, and 45.0% indicated no change. Negative public opinion was prevalent. The sentiment that her image had worsened was higher than average among voters in their 20s and 40s, and regionally in Seoul (36.4%) and the Honam region (44.0%). In Chungcheong, Gyeonggi, and Daegu/Gyeongbuk, opinions were divided between improvement and worsening, with a significant portion responding 'no change.'

[Figure 4] Impact of Remarks on Leaving the Historical Evaluation of the Park Chung-hee Era to History on Park's Public Opinion (%)

Remarks: "The May 16 coup was an unavoidable choice," and "The achievements and failures of the Park Chung-hee era, including the Inhyeokdang incident, should be left to history."

Furthermore, it is necessary to consider the possibility that the nomination scandal during the April 11 general election and recent corruption allegations involving prominent pro-Park figures like former lawmakers Hong Sa-deok and Song Young-sun may have been more direct causes for the decline in Park Geun-hye's approval ratings. In fact, in the third presidential panel survey conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research in August, shortly after the primary, a majority of respondents, excluding those in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region and those over 60, held Park Geun-hye directly responsible for the nomination scandal within the Saenuri Party's proportional representation system. 59.4% of respondents believed Park Geun-hye bore direct responsibility. During this period, the one-on-one approval ratings between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo were 45.3% and 50.5%, respectively, a difference of 5.2%p. Subsequently, due to reconciliation efforts, she managed to regain the lead against Ahn Cheol-soo in the late August poll. This suggests that criticism regarding current corruption and unfair practices could be a more direct factor in the decline of her approval ratings. Coupled with major opposition events such as the Democratic Party's presidential primary and Ahn Cheol-soo's announcement to enter the race, this likely contributed to a nearly 10%p drop in approval ratings in both three-way and two-way contests.

Effect of Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy Announcement: Improved 37.1%, No Change 42.9%, Worsened 13.9%

Ahn Cheol-soo's surge in one-on-one matchups can be attributed to his announcement to run for president. In the current poll, when asked about the impact of Ahn Cheol-soo's presidential candidacy announcement on perceptions of him, 37.1% responded that it improved their view, while only 13.9% said it worsened, a difference of 23.2%p. 42.9% reported no significant change. The positive response was high among Saenuri Party supporters (21.6%), Democratic United Party supporters (48.8%), and independents (41.1%). By ideological leaning, it was highest among progressives (48.1%), followed by centrists (36.5%), and even conservatives (31.3%). This suggests that Ahn's emphasis on political integration and new politics, which aligns with public expectations beyond partisan politics, resonated not only with his supporters but also with centrist and independent voters, and even with some opposition voters.

[Figure 5] Impact of Ahn Cheol-soo's Presidential Candidacy Announcement on Perceptions of Ahn Cheol-soo (5)

In the second phase of the 'Ahn Cheol-soo phenomenon' after the April 11 general election, unlike the first phase, support from centrist and independent voters showed a decline when competing against Park Geun-hye. This is likely due to fatigue from Ahn Cheol-soo's pro-opposition stance and delays in his candidacy announcement (see EAI Public Opinion Brief 118). However, with his announcement to run, Ahn Cheol-soo has emphasized his message of new politics and national unity over his position as an opposition candidate, leading to an increase in support among centrist and independent voters. In the previous month's poll, Ahn Cheol-soo led among centrists with 47.5% to Park Geun-hye's 42.9%. In the current poll, Ahn Cheol-soo widened the gap to 53.7% to Park Geun-hye's 37.8%. Among independent voters, the gap widened from 46.2% to 27.1% last month to 53.4% to 16.0% this month, with Ahn Cheol-soo holding a dominant lead. Notably, in the August poll, the gap narrowed significantly among progressives, with Ahn Cheol-soo at 58.5% and Park Geun-hye at 36.4%. In the current poll, this gap has widened again to 70.0% versus 18.1%. The significant narrowing of the gap among progressives last month may be attributed to a stronger anti-Saenuri and anti-Park Geun-hye sentiment, leading them to consider Moon Jae-in as an alternative. However, following his candidacy announcement, Ahn Cheol-soo appears to have regained support from progressive voters.

[Figure 6] Approval Ratings in 1:1 Race: Park vs. Ahn by Ideological Leaning / Party Support (%)

Democratic Party Primary and Moon Jae-in's Rising Support: Improved 44.6%, No Change 41.8%, Worsened 6.1%

While Ahn Cheol-soo announced his candidacy and the Democratic Party selected its candidate, Moon Jae-in has been the one to gain tangible benefits. When asked about the impact of the Democratic Party's primary on perceptions of Moon Jae-in, 44.6% responded that it improved their view, compared to 41.8% who reported no change and only 6.1% who said it worsened. Although he still trails Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo in a three-way race, his lead over Park Geun-hye in a one-on-one race within the margin of error is a significant departure from his previous lack of a distinct competitive presence against Park Geun-hye.

Considering the primary boycott by non-Moon candidates, controversies over the fairness of mobile voting, and other disruptions during the Democratic Party's primary, it is difficult to attribute Moon Jae-in's rise in support directly to the primary process itself. However, the fact that he achieved a clean sweep across all 16 regions, despite fierce competition, may have helped alleviate the perception of his lack of political experience, similar to Ahn Cheol-soo. The perception that Moon Jae-in has improved was lower only among those in their 20s (25.3%), but higher among those in their 30s (46.1%) and 40s (55.2%). Notably, among the 50s and 60s age groups, who prioritize governing capabilities, 49.6% and 44.3%, respectively, responded that their view had improved.

[Figure 7] Impact of the Democratic Party Primary on Perceptions of Moon Jae-in (%)

2. Possibilities and Dilemmas of Candidate Unification

1) Candidate Unification: Support for Unification 44.8%, Opposition 30.4%, Don't Know 24.9%

Moon Supporters 76.1% Support Unification, Ahn Supporters 54.7% Support, Park Supporters 20.4% Support

With Ahn Cheol-soo's announcement to run and Moon Jae-in's emergence, candidate unification has become the most significant variable. Overall, 44.8% of the public supports the idea that "Ahn Cheol-soo should unify with Moon Jae-in," while 30.4% oppose it, and 24.9% are undecided. This indicates a considerable portion of the electorate has not yet formed a firm opinion.

In a three-way race scenario, only 20.4% of Park Geun-hye's supporters favored unification, while 42.3% opposed it, and 37.3% were undecided. Conversely, Moon Jae-in's supporters were the most enthusiastic, with 76.1% supporting unification, only 15.6% opposing, and 8.3% undecided. Among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, who have not clearly stated their position on unification, 54.7% favored it, but opposition was also significant at 30.3%, with 15.0% undecided. This suggests that while a majority supports unification, there is considerable division within Ahn's support base.

[Figure 8] Support for and Opposition to Unification Between Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in (%)

67.9% of those who simultaneously support Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in favor unification.

Cross-tabulating the one-on-one races between Park vs. Ahn and Park vs. Moon reveals the following: 34.2% supported Park Geun-hye in both matchups. 41.6% supported both Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in. 9.0% supported Ahn Cheol-soo in the Park vs. Ahn race but not Moon Jae-in in the Park vs. Moon race (non-Moon Ahn supporters). Conversely, 9.0% supported Moon Jae-in in the Park vs. Moon race but not Ahn Cheol-soo in the Park vs. Ahn race (non-Ahn Moon supporters). The remaining 9.1% were undecided or gave other responses.

Among the 41.6% of respondents who simultaneously support Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in, 67.9% favored unification. Among those who only support Moon Jae-in, 55.6% favored unification. Among those who support only Ahn Cheol-soo and not Moon Jae-in, only 36.8% favored unification, while 47.3% opposed it. However, given the larger proportion of voters who support both Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo, continued public opinion in this direction could exert political pressure on Ahn Cheol-soo to pursue unification.

2) Unification Candidate: Ahn Cheol-soo 34.4% vs. Moon Jae-in 41.8%, Undecided 23.8%

Democratic Party Supporters: Ahn 41.5% vs. Moon 44.4%; Independents: Ahn 31.8% vs. Moon 29.9% - Neck-and-Neck

In terms of the preferred unification candidate, 34.4% of all respondents supported Ahn Cheol-soo, while 41.8% supported Moon Jae-in, giving Moon Jae-in an edge. 23.8% were undecided. However, since the overall respondents include Saenuri Party supporters, which could skew the unification preference, a breakdown by party support reveals a different picture. Among Democratic Party supporters, 41.5% favored Ahn Cheol-soo, while 44.4% favored Moon Jae-in. Among independent voters, the preference was reversed: 31.8% supported Ahn Cheol-soo, and 29.9% supported Moon Jae-in, indicating a close race. Notably, even among Democratic Party supporters, Ahn Cheol-soo's support is relatively high.

[Figure 9] Who Should Be the Unification Candidate? (%)

Dilemma in Selecting the Unification Candidate: Ahn Cheol-soo Leads in Likelihood of Winning, Moon Jae-in in Governing Capability

Likelihood of Winning: Ahn 41.2%, Moon 27.7%, Similar 22.7%

While Ahn Cheol-soo is perceived as more competitive against Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in leads in the overall preference for the unification candidate. Even excluding Saenuri Party supporters, the preferences for Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in are neck-and-neck. This divergence stems from the distinct strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates. Regarding the likelihood of winning, 41.2% of respondents believe Ahn Cheol-soo has a higher chance of winning, compared to 27.7% for Moon Jae-in, and 22.7% who believe they are similar. It is noteworthy that even among Democratic Party supporters, Ahn Cheol-soo is seen as having a higher likelihood of winning, with 45.3% holding this view, while only 28.5% believe Moon Jae-in has a better chance. A similar pattern is observed among independent voters.

[Figure 10] Assessment of Likelihood of Winning (%)

Governing Capability: Ahn 25.3%, Moon 40.9%, Similar 24.0%

However, in terms of governing capability, the results are almost reversed: 25.3% for Ahn Cheol-soo and 40.9% for Moon Jae-in, with 24.0% indicating similarity. This suggests that Ahn Cheol-soo's primary weakness lies in his inability to inspire sufficient confidence in his governing capabilities, which will likely be a key focus for his campaign. This pattern holds true among Democratic United Party supporters as well, with 29.5% believing Ahn Cheol-soo would be better at governing and 43.7% favoring Moon Jae-in, while 22.5% considered them similar. However, among independent voters, Ahn Cheol-soo garnered 24.2% and Moon Jae-in 28.6%, indicating that independent voters do not perceive a significant advantage for Moon Jae-in in terms of governing capability.

[Figure 11] Assessment of Governing Capability (%)

3. Perceptual Map of Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo vs. Moon Jae-in

Park Geun-hye Excels in Governing Competence, Ahn Cheol-soo in Personal Appeal

1) Leader Image Analysis: Park Leads in 6 Categories, Ahn in 3, Moon Receives Balanced Evaluation

Park: Leads in Patriotism 68.8%, Awareness of Current Issues 65.2%, Crisis Management Ability 57.8%, Predictability 57.5%

Ahn: Leads in Communication Skills 78.5%, Integrity 71.1%, Likeability of Appearance 57.7%; Lack of Experience 76.2%

Moon: High scores across the board in Communication 68.2%, Integrity 64.3%, Likeability of Appearance 63.2%, Awareness of Current Issues 61.8%

In the August poll, we compared the images of leading candidates Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo using a perceptual map based on correspondence analysis, employing political marketing techniques. The analysis categorized images of political leaders into governing competence and personal competence/appeal. We adapted a 14-item leader image survey framework developed by MORI, a UK-US joint venture, using 6 items from the original framework and modifying others to create a total of 10 measurement items. For each candidate, we surveyed respondents on their perception of the candidate's image across these measurement items. In the September poll, we included Moon Jae-in in the image survey for the same items, and the results were integrated with the previous survey data for analysis.

Table 1 summarizes the response rates for each measurement item and the proportion of respondents who indicated that the item applied to Park Geun-hye, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Moon Jae-in. For governing competence, the items included: (1) Patriotism (MORI), (2) Understanding of Korea's Current Issues (MORI), (3) Crisis Management Ability (MORI), (4) Predictability and Stability in Governing Style, and (5) Ability to Handle North Korea/International Issues. For personal competence, the items were: (1) Integrity, (2) Likeability of Appearance, (3) Communication with Subordinates/General Public (MORI), (4) Lack of Experience (MORI), and (5) Disregard for the Common People (MORI). It is important not to confuse the interpretation of the 'lack of experience' and 'disregard for the common people' items, which are phrased negatively, with positive statements.

Frequency analysis reveals that Park Geun-hye received high ratings in governing competence categories such as patriotism (68.8%), understanding of Korea's current issues (65.2%), crisis management ability (57.8%), and predictability and stability (57.5%). She also exceeded 50% in personal competence items like integrity (59.9%) and likeability of appearance (51.1%). In contrast, Ahn Cheol-soo received high ratings for personal competence items, specifically communication skills with subordinates and the general public (78.5%) and integrity (71.1%), as well as likeability of appearance (57.7%). Moon Jae-in, on the other hand, received the highest score for likeability of appearance (63.2%) and generally received positive evaluations across most areas, although not always the highest. His communication skills with subordinates were rated at 68.2%, slightly behind Ahn Cheol-soo, and his integrity was rated at 64.3%, indicating generally high personal competence. In terms of governing competence, he scored 61.8% for understanding current issues, slightly behind Park, 56.8% for patriotism, and 56.0% for predictability/stability, receiving generally good evaluations. However, his crisis management ability was rated relatively lower at 41.5%.

Regarding the 'lack of experience' item, 76.2% of respondents affirmed this for Ahn Cheol-soo, identifying it as his greatest weakness. For Park Geun-hye, the figure was 30.4%, and for Moon Jae-in, it was 39.0%. Ahn Cheol-soo is perceived as having significantly less experience compared to Park Geun-hye. Conversely, Park Geun-hye received relatively more negative evaluations regarding communication skills. All three candidates did not strongly evoke the image of disregarding the common people. The item that received the most negative evaluations across all three candidates was related to handling North Korea/international issues, with Park Geun-hye at 41.6%, Moon Jae-in at a similar 40.8%, and Ahn Cheol-soo at the lowest 31.4%.

[Table 1] EAI Political Leader Image Perception Analysis Model (Modified MORI Model): Percentage Responding 'Yes'

2) Image Perception through Correspondence Analysis

● Using the voter response data for each of these items, a correspondence analysis was performed to visually represent the image of each candidate on a perceptual map, as shown in [Figure 12]. Similar to the frequency analysis results, voters perceive patriotism, awareness of Korea's pressing issues, crisis management capabilities, and a predictable/stable governing style as closely aligned with candidate Park Geun-hye. In contrast, for Dr. Ahn Cheol-soo, communication skills with subordinates and the general public emerged as strengths. He is perceived as being in closer proximity to other candidates compared to them, with perceived attractiveness and integrity appearing relatively close. Meanwhile, candidate Moon Jae-in's strengths were perceived as attractiveness and integrity, more so than other candidates, while a lack of experience was perceived as an image concentrated around Dr. Ahn Cheol-soo. Furthermore, the ability to handle North-South relations and security issues is positioned closer to candidates Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in than to Dr. Ahn Cheol-soo. The image of disregarding the common people was found to be distant from the images of all three candidates, indicating a mismatch.

[Figure 12] Park Geun-hye/Ahn Cheol-soo Image Perception Map through Correspondence Analysis

4. Political Indicators in September

Approval rating for state administration: Increased from 23.9% to 29.6% to 29.8%

Party approval rating: Saenuri Party 46.2%, Democratic United Party 34.8% → Saenuri 40.2%, Democratic United Party 39.1%

● The approval rating for state administration remained largely unchanged at 29.8% from 29.6% in August. Following the halt of the declining trend in approval ratings around the general elections in the July survey and a subsequent upturn, there has been no further increase in approval ratings. This pattern is similar to the period of the Roh Moo-hyun administration, when approval ratings rose after a strong statement against Japan following a decline in April 2006. As in that instance, the increase in approval ratings was a temporary effect and did not last long.

● Meanwhile, significant changes occurred in party approval ratings. In the August survey, the Saenuri Party maintained an 11.4 percentage point lead with an approval rating of 46.2%, compared to the Democratic United Party's 34.8%. However, in the September survey, the Saenuri Party's approval rating dropped by 6.0 percentage points to 40.2%, while the Democratic United Party's approval rating rose by 4.3 percentage points to 39.1%, bringing them to nearly equal levels. This result suggests an interaction with the phenomenon of a sharp decline in Park Geun-hye's presidential candidate approval rating and increases in the approval ratings for Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in. The Unified Progressive Party garnered 4.5%, a similar level to the previous month.

[Figure 13] Changes in Approval Rating for State Administration (%)

[Figure 14] Changes in Party Approval Rating (%)