[Public Opinion Brief No. 120] Key Results of the Survey Immediately After the Saenuri Party's Primary Election

[Public Opinion Brief No. 120] Joint 2012 General Election and Presidential Election 3rd Panel Survey by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research

1. Saenuri Party Presidential Candidate, Park Geun-hye

2. Director Ahn Cheol-soo and Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo

3. Supporters of the Big Two

4. Virtues Desired by the Public in the Next President

1. Saenuri Party Presidential Candidate, Park Geun-hye

1) Presidential Election Support Rate: 40.8%

- In a multi-candidate race, Candidate Park Geun-hye wins against anyone.

- Park Geun-hye 2.0% Ahn Cheol-soo 6.6% Support Rate Increase

■ The results of the Saenuri Party's presidential primary election, announced on August 20, held no surprises. As everyone expected, Candidate Park Geun-hye was elected. From the Saenuri Party's perspective, this was the best possible outcome for winning the presidential election, as no other candidate within the party could match Park Geun-hye's support rate. In a multi-candidate race, when asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held tomorrow, 40.8% of the EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research 2012 General and Presidential Election Panel respondents chose Candidate Park Geun-hye.

■ The response rate for Seoul National University Professor Ahn Cheol-soo was 30.8%, while for Democratic United Party candidates Moon Jae-in and Sohn Hak-kyu, the rates were 13.6% and 2.6%, respectively. Considering that only 10.0% of respondents answered 'None' or 'No applicable candidate,' the 40.8% support rate for Candidate Park Geun-hye indicates that she can be confident of victory regardless of who she faces in a 'multi-candidate race.'

[Figure 1] Presidential Candidate Support Rates in a Multi-Candidate Race (%)

■ The high support rate for Candidate Park Geun-hye has been consistent since the first panel survey. In the first panel survey conducted before the general election, her support rate was 31.8%. In the second panel survey conducted immediately after the general election, the support rate rose to 38.8%, an increase of 7.0 percentage points (p) compared to the first survey. The 40.8% support rate in the third panel survey, an increase of 2.0 percentage points (p) compared to the second survey, indicates that the upward trend in Park Geun-hye's support rate has slowed. This also shows that the convention effect, which typically boosts support rates after major political events like party conventions, was minimal.

■ The results of the third panel survey reveal that while Candidate Park Geun-hye's support rate showed limitations in expanding its reach amidst the prevailing narrative, Director Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate increased from 24.2% in the second panel survey to 30.8% in the third, a rise of 6.6 percentage points (p). This indicates a strengthening of support for Director Ahn Cheol-soo, who has been actively campaigning for the presidency following the publication of <Ahn Cheol-soo's Thoughts> and his appearance on a television entertainment program.

■ Candidate Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party saw his support rate stagnate. He maintained a support rate of around 14% from the first panel survey through the third. This suggests that he has not been able to attract new voters, either before or after the general election.

[Figure 2] Changes in Presidential Candidate Support Rates in a Multi-Candidate Race (%)

- Park Geun-hye was ranked first among candidates who should not be elected.

■ Candidate Park Geun-hye, with a 40.8% support rate, was also ranked first in the category of 'candidate who should not be elected,' with a response rate of 20.8%. The 20.8% response rate for Park Geun-hye is comparable to the combined response rates for Ahn Cheol-soo (11.1%), Sohn Hak-kyu (6.1%), and Moon Jae-in (4.3%), which total 21.5%. This signifies that there are a substantial number of voters who support Park Geun-hye as well as those who oppose her.

■ It is also noteworthy that 50.1% of respondents answered 'None' or 'No specific opposition,' indicating that a majority of the voter panel does not hold a particular opposition to the current field of presidential candidates.

[Figure 3] Candidates Who Should Not Be Elected President (%)

2) The Rival, Director Ahn Cheol-soo

- In a two-candidate race, Ahn Cheol-soo leads Park Geun-hye 50.5% to 45.3%

■ According to the results of this third panel survey, regardless of who wins the Democratic United Party primary, none of the candidates could defeat Park Geun-hye in the current presidential election. The outcome remains the same even if the opposition fields a single unified candidate among those who have declared their candidacy. In a two-candidate race against Moon Jae-in, Park Geun-hye's support rate is 53.1%, defeating Moon's 43.2%. In a two-candidate race against Sohn Hak-kyu, Park's support rate is 58.5%, defeating Sohn's 34.0%.

[Figure 4] Race Against Unified Opposition Candidates Moon Jae-in and Sohn Hak-kyu (%)

■ However, Park Geun-hye's prevailing narrative lost its momentum against one individual: Director Ahn Cheol-soo. In a two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, Park's support rate was 45.3%, while Ahn's was 50.5%. Although Park leads within the margin of error, she trails Ahn by 5.3 percentage points (p).

[Figure 5] Race Between Candidate Park Geun-hye and Director Ahn Cheol-soo (%)

■ The close race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo in a two-candidate scenario leads to different outcomes in a three-candidate race. Consider a three-candidate race including Park, Ahn, and Moon Jae-in. In this scenario, Park Geun-hye's support rate is 43.0%, higher than Ahn Cheol-soo's 35.4% and Moon Jae-in's 18.2%.

■ In a three-candidate race including Sohn Hak-kyu, Park Geun-hye's support rate is 44.4%, significantly leading Sohn's 8.4%. However, she is in a close race with Ahn Cheol-soo, who has a 44.3% support rate. From Park Geun-hye's perspective, her chances of winning are high if Moon Jae-in is included in a three-candidate race, but her victory is not guaranteed if Sohn Hak-kyu is included.

[Figure 6] Three-Candidate Race Including Candidates Moon Jae-in and Sohn Hak-kyu (%)

3) Issues and Candidate Park Geun-hye

- Regarding the allegations of illegal campaign fund solicitation during the general election, 59.4% believe Park Geun-hye bears direct responsibility.

■ Issues are also attached to Candidate Park Geun-hye as she solidifies her leading position. First is the allegations of illegal campaign fund solicitation during the last general election. 59.4% of voter panel respondents believe Park Geun-hye bears direct responsibility, compared to 34.3% who believe she does not. This opinion among voter panel respondents is found even among Saenuri Party supporters and Park Geun-hye supporters. Among Saenuri Party supporters, 34.1% answered that she bears direct responsibility, and among Park Geun-hye supporters, 33.8% answered the same.

[Figure 7] Park Geun-hye's Responsibility for Allegations of Illegal Campaign Fund Solicitation (%)

- Correlation between MB Government's National Administration Evaluation and Park's Support Rate

■ This section examines the impact of the 'regime judgment' sentiment regarding the Lee Myung-bak administration on the expansion of Park Geun-hye's support. One method to gauge this impact is to examine the relationship between the evaluation of the Lee Myung-bak administration's national administration and the support rate differences between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo in multi-candidate and two-candidate races. In a multi-candidate race, among those who responded that the Lee Myung-bak administration's national administration was well-managed, Park Geun-hye's support rate was 69.6% and Ahn Cheol-soo's was 15.7%. Among those who responded that it was poorly managed, Park's support rate was 29.5% and Ahn's was 36.5%.

■ In a two-candidate race, among those who responded that the Lee Myung-bak administration's national administration was well-managed, Park Geun-hye's support rate was 73.2% and Ahn Cheol-soo's was 21.3%. Among those who responded that it was poorly managed, Park's support rate was 34.3% and Ahn's was 61.9%. These differences, despite the potential for complex interactions of individual voters' political leanings, suggest a correlation between the evaluation of the Lee Myung-bak administration's national administration and Park's support rate.

[Figure 8] Support for Park and Ahn Based on National Administration Evaluation (%)

- Favorite Presidents: Roh Moo-hyun > Park Chung-hee > Kim Dae-jung

- Those in their 20s and 40s favor Roh Moo-hyun; those in their 50s and 60s favor Park Chung-hee.

■ The legacies of past and present presidents can influence public socio-political consciousness and the formation of support bases for presidential candidates. Indeed, Candidate Park Geun-hye is associated with former President Park Chung-hee, and Candidate Moon Jae-in is associated with former President Roh Moo-hyun, whether they desire it or not. The favorite presidents among voter panel respondents were Roh Moo-hyun and Park Chung-hee. The proportion of respondents who chose Roh Moo-hyun as their favorite president was 36.1%, and for Park Chung-hee, it was 32.2%. The response rate for Kim Dae-jung was 14.8%.

[Figure 9] Favorite Presidents Among Panelists (%)

■ Favorite presidents showed significant differences across age groups. Among those in their 20s and 40s, the proportion who chose Roh Moo-hyun was around 50%. Among those in their 50s and 60s, the proportion who chose Park Chung-hee as their favorite president was around 50%. For Kim Dae-jung, the response rate was consistently around 10% across all age groups. Consequently, clear differences in perceptions of favorite presidents are evident between generations, based on former presidents Roh Moo-hyun and Park Chung-hee.

[Figure 10] Favorite Presidents Among Panelists by Age Group (%)

- Supporters of Park Chung-hee favor Candidate Park Geun-hye.

- Supporters of Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun favor Director Ahn Cheol-soo.

■ The differences in support for presidential candidates based on favorite presidents were clear. In a multi-candidate race involving Park Geun-hye, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Moon Jae-in, 45.7% of voter panel respondents who named Roh Moo-hyun as their favorite president supported Ahn Cheol-soo. The support rate for Moon Jae-in was 26.5%, and for Park Geun-hye, it was 14.1%. Among panelists who favored Park Chung-hee, Park Geun-hye's support rate was an overwhelming 77.5%. The support rate for Ahn Cheol-soo was 10.9%, and for Moon Jae-in, it was a mere 2.4%. For those who chose Kim Dae-jung, Ahn Cheol-soo received 47.0% support, Moon Jae-in 17.2%, and Park Geun-hye 15.8%.

■ In a two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, the differences in support based on favorite former and current presidents became even more pronounced. Among panelists who favored Park Chung-hee, Park Geun-hye's support rate was 80.9%, overwhelming Ahn Cheol-soo's 16.1%. For those who favored Roh Moo-hyun and Kim Dae-jung, Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate was 76.5% and 77.7%, respectively, overwhelming Park Geun-hye's support rate.

[Figure 11] Favorite Presidents and Presidential Candidate Support (%)

2. Director Ahn Cheol-soo and Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo

1) One Challenge: To Run or Not to Run for President

- Should run: 39.4%; Should not run: 42.5%

- 71.5% of Park's supporters believe Ahn should not run.

■ If Director Ahn Cheol-soo is to become Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo and run for president, there are several challenges he will inevitably face. One of these is the question of whether Ahn Cheol-soo will run. Ahn began a nationwide tour of public sentiment in Jeonju on August 16, indicating that the deliberation over his presidential candidacy is reaching its peak. However, voter panel opinions on Ahn's presidential candidacy appear divided. 39.4% of voter panel respondents believe Ahn should run for president. Conversely, 42.5% believe he should not run.

■ Opinions on Director Ahn Cheol-soo's candidacy showed a relatively clear generational divide. Among those in their 20s and 40s, the opinion that Ahn should run was high, around 50%. In contrast, among those in their 50s and 60s, the opinion that he should not run significantly exceeded 50%. This suggests that the division of opinions on Ahn's presidential candidacy overlaps with the generational support for Candidate Park Geun-hye. Indeed, in a two-candidate race, 71.5% of Park Geun-hye's supporters responded that Ahn should not run, indicating they perceive him as a strong competitor.

[Figure 12] Opinions on Director Ahn Cheol-soo's Presidential Candidacy (%)

2) Second Challenge: Join the Democratic United Party or Form a Third Party?

- Should not form a third party: 62.5%

- 53.0% of Ahn's supporters also believe a third party should not be formed.

■ Another challenge Director Ahn Cheol-soo must face is how to manage his relationship with the Democratic United Party. This relationship can be broadly divided into two aspects. One is whether Ahn will join the Democratic United Party or form a new third party. The other is the unification of opposition candidates with the Democratic United Party candidate.

■ Regarding the formation of a third party, voter panel respondents generally expressed that it is not necessary. 62.5% of voter panel respondents answered that forming a third party is not necessary. The proportion of those who believe it is necessary was 36.4%. A cautious stance on forming a third party was also evident among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters. Among voter panel respondents who supported Ahn in both the multi-candidate race and the two-candidate race against Park Geun-hye, 53.0% and 52.8%, respectively, believe that forming a third party is not necessary.

[Figure 13] Necessity of Forming a Third Party (%)

■ The fact that many voter panels hold a negative or cautious stance on the formation of a third party can also be attributed to the existing differences in policy stances between the Saenuri Party and the Democratic United Party. The proportion of respondents who answered that there were differences in the policies of the Saenuri Party and the Democratic United Party regarding unification with North Korea, chaebols, economic growth, and welfare exceeded the proportion who answered there were no differences. First, the opinion that there was a difference in North Korea unification policy reached 73.0%. Regarding chaebols, 67.8% answered there were differences, and 60.9% answered there were differences regarding economic growth. Finally, regarding welfare, 59.8% answered that there were differences in policy areas between the two parties.

[Figure 14] Perception of Differences in Policy Stances between Saenuri Party and Democratic United Party (%)

3) A Challenge: Unifying Opposition Candidates or Running Independently

- Support for Unifying Opposition Candidates 44.0% Should Run Independently 41.1%

- Unifying Opposition Candidates: As Candidate Ahn 41.5% As Democratic United Party Candidate 35.5%

■ Currently, the Democratic United Party is undergoing its presidential primary, and candidate Moon Jae-in continues his winning streak. Voter panels also hold the view that candidate Moon Jae-in is the most suitable presidential candidate for the Democratic United Party. The proportion of respondents who selected candidate Moon Jae-in among voter panels reached 50.1%, exceeding half, showing a significant gap with candidate Sohn Hak-kyu's approval rating of 23.7% and candidate Kim Doo-kwan's approval rating of 8.5%.

[Figure 15] Suitable Presidential Candidate for the Democratic United Party (%)

■ The more the Democratic United Party's primary progresses, the more limited candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's options become. The same applies to the issue of opposition party candidate unification. The opinions of voter panels were divided between supporting opposition party candidate unification and supporting candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's independent candidacy. The proportion of respondents who supported unification was 44.0%, while the proportion supporting candidate Ahn's independent candidacy was 41.1%.

■ There were also relatively clear generational differences in opinions regarding opposition party candidate unification. Among those in their 20s and those aged 60 and above, the proportion supporting candidate Ahn's independent candidacy was higher. Conversely, among those in their 30s to 50s, the proportion supporting opposition party candidate unification was higher. While the time for candidate Ahn's decision is approaching, the opinions of voter panels remain on parallel tracks.

[Figure 16] Support for Unifying Opposition Candidates (%)

■ The direction of opposition party candidate unification, i.e., who to unify under, is also a challenge. If opposition party candidate unification occurs, opinions were divided among voter panels regarding whether to unify under the Democratic United Party candidate or candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. The proportion of respondents who believed unification should occur under candidate Ahn Cheol-soo was 41.5%, while the proportion who believed unification should occur under the Democratic United Party candidate was 35.5%. This result shows that while many panels supported unification under candidate Ahn, a considerable number also opposed it.

[Figure 17] Direction of Unifying Opposition Candidates (%)

3. Supporters of the "Big Two"

1) Characteristics of Supporters

- The Paradox of Solid Support Base and Limited Expansion

■ Candidates Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo are the most prominent presidential contenders at this moment. These two frontrunners have built strong support bases, respectively, and continue to maintain high approval ratings. Furthermore, unless there is a highly unusual issue, the possibility of their support bases changing does not appear significant, as the supporters of candidate Park Geun-hye and candidate Ahn Cheol-soo are distinct.

■ In terms of generations, as explained in previous sections, those aged 50 and above tend to support candidate Park Geun-hye, while those aged 40 and below tend to support candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. The intensity of support also showed a clear difference. The older the age group, the higher the support for candidate Park, and the younger the age group, the higher the support for candidate Ahn.

■ Differences were also observed based on residential region. Candidate Park Geun-hye received higher approval ratings than candidate Ahn Cheol-soo in Daejeon/Chungcheong, Daegu/Gyeongbuk, and Gyeongnam/Busan/Ulsan. Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo garnered higher approval ratings compared to candidate Park Geun-hye in Seoul, Incheon/Gyeonggi, and Gwangju/Jeolla. The regional support patterns indicate a 3-3 tie, similar to the overall approval ratings of the two candidates.

■ Supporters of candidate Park Geun-hye and candidate Ahn Cheol-soo also showed differences in their subjective ideological leanings. Candidate Park Geun-hye received 64.1% support from conservatives (34.3%), whereas candidate Ahn Cheol-soo received 75.4% support from progressives (21.9%). An interesting point is the choice of voter panels who identified their ideology as moderate (41.9%). Among these moderates, 41.0% supported candidate Park Geun-hye, and 54.4% supported candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. This indicates that the preference of the numerically smaller progressive base is complemented by the moderate base, resulting in a close race between the two frontrunners.

■ Differences were also clear based on party affiliation. Candidate Park Geun-hye received support from 86.3% of Saenuri Party supporters, while candidate Ahn Cheol-soo received support from 82.5% of Democratic United Party supporters. From candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's perspective, there appears to be a significant potential to gain strong support from Democratic United Party supporters in the future.

[Figure 18] Supporters of Candidates Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo (%)

■ The situation where the support bases of candidate Park Geun-hye and candidate Ahn Cheol-soo are distinctly divided presents both advantages and disadvantages for both frontrunners. While the strong cohesion of their respective support bases is an advantage, the limitation in expanding their support base is a disadvantage. With the approval ratings between the two frontrunners remaining close, both candidates face the significant challenge of how to expand their support base.

■ Comparing the results of the second panel survey conducted immediately after the general election with the current third panel survey reveals the limitations in the support base expansion of the two frontrunners. Firstly, in terms of generational demographics, the difference between the second and third panel surveys was only about 1-2% for most groups. In terms of residential region, candidate Park Geun-hye's approval rating decreased by 5% in Incheon/Gyeonggi, and candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's approval rating decreased by 7.0% in Gwangju/Jeolla. The approval rating changes in other regions were all within 2%. Differences in approval ratings based on subjective ideological leanings and party affiliation were also not significant. Even if differences existed, they were within the margin of error, and consequently, no drastic changes in approval ratings occurred.

[Figure 19] Change in Supporters Compared to the 2nd Survey (%)

2) Voter Migration Paths

- Park Geun-hye ▷ Ahn Cheol-soo > Ahn Cheol-soo ▷ Park Geun-hye

■ We examined the movement of supporters by assuming a scenario where the two-way race between candidate Park Geun-hye and candidate Moon Jae-in, and between candidate Park Geun-hye and candidate Sohn Hak-kyu, shifted to a two-way race between candidate Park Geun-hye and candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. In the case where the contest between candidate Park and candidate Moon changed to one between candidate Park and candidate Ahn, 76.9% (592 individuals) of candidate Park's supporters continued to support candidate Park, while 19.4% (149 individuals) supported candidate Ahn. In the case where the contest between candidate Park and candidate Sohn changed to one between candidate Park and candidate Ahn, 70.6% (598 individuals) of candidate Park's supporters maintained their support for candidate Park, but 25.9% (219 individuals) shifted their support to candidate Ahn.

■ When the two-way race against candidate Park Geun-hye shifted from candidate Moon Jae-in to candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, 8.8% (55 individuals) of the voter panels who supported candidate Moon answered they would support candidate Park, and 88.8% (556 individuals) answered they would support candidate Ahn. When the scenario shifted from candidate Sohn Hak-kyu to candidate Ahn, 9.1% (45 individuals) of candidate Sohn's supporters shifted their support to candidate Park, and 89.2% (439 individuals) shifted to candidate Ahn. This result indicates that more voters shifted to candidate Ahn than to candidate Park in a direct contest between Ahn and Park, not only from candidate Moon and candidate Sohn's supporters but even from candidate Park's supporters.

[Table 1] Migration Paths of Moon Jae-in and Sohn Hak-kyu Supporters in a Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo Contest

■ We examined changes in supporter loyalty by comparing the second panel survey conducted after the general election with the third panel survey. Among the voter panels who stated they supported candidate Park Geun-hye in the second survey, 82.6% (559 individuals) also stated their support for candidate Park in the third survey. Among those who stated they supported candidate Ahn Cheol-soo in the second survey, 86.1% (617 individuals) maintained their support in the third survey. This suggests that the cohesion of candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters is slightly stronger than that of candidate Park Geun-hye's supporters.

■ Among the voter panels who supported candidate Park Geun-hye in the second survey, 13.7% (93 individuals) shifted their support to candidate Ahn Cheol-soo in the third survey. Among the voter panels who supported candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, 10.3% (74 individuals) shifted their support to candidate Park. Compared to the second survey, this indicates that candidate Ahn Cheol-soo absorbed relatively more supporters of the opposing candidate in the third survey.

[Table 2] Changes in Supporters in a Head-to-Head Contest

3) The Increase in Unaffiliated Voters and Their Preferences

- Proportion of Unaffiliated Voters Increased from 16.8% to 38.9%

■ One of the characteristics observed in the third panel survey compared to the second panel survey is the increase in undecided voters and the simultaneous decline in approval ratings for the Saenuri Party and the Democratic United Party. In the second panel survey, the proportion of undecided voters was 16.8%, which increased to 38.9% in the third panel survey, more than doubling. Conversely, the Saenuri Party's approval rating decreased from 39.1% to 33.7%, and the Democratic United Party's approval rating decreased from 31.9% to 22.4%.

[Figure 20] Changes in Party Support Rates (%)

- Younger Generations Have More Unaffiliated Voters

- Last General Election Party Support: Democratic United Party 39.7%, Saenuri Party 25.0%

■ Examining the increased proportion of undecided voters by generation, it was predominantly observed in age groups under 40, with 57.2% among those in their 20s, 44.8% among those in their 30s, and 42.1% among those in their 40s. In terms of residential region, it was relatively evenly distributed across the country, with over 30% in most regions. Regarding subjective ideological leanings, the proportions for progressive and moderate were high at 43.3% and 45.0%, respectively, while the proportion for conservative was relatively low at 29.1%. Based on party voting in the last general election, 25.0% voted for the Saenuri Party, while 39.7% voted for the Democratic United Party, which is higher.

[Figure 21] Characteristics of Unaffiliated Voters (%)

- Unaffiliated Voters' Presidential Support: Ahn Cheol-soo 64.3%, Park Geun-hye 29.5%

- Increased Unaffiliated Voters, Narrowed Position of the Democratic United Party

■ Examining the support for presidential candidates among the increased undecided voters, candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's approval rating was 64.3% in a two-way race, overwhelmingly surpassing candidate Park Geun-hye's approval rating of 29.5%. This indicates that a significant number of undecided voters support candidate Ahn Cheol-soo.

■ Regarding candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, who is supported by 64.3% of undecided voters, and related issues, the need for establishing a third party was considered unnecessary by 55.9% of respondents. Regarding candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's presidential candidacy, 48.1% responded that he should run, which is higher than the 3.18% who responded that he should not run. For opposition party candidate unification, support for unification was 41.7%, closely matched by 42.1% support for independent candidacy. Regarding the direction of opposition party candidate unification, 48.1% supported unification under candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, which is higher than the 31.8% who supported unification under the Democratic Party candidate.

■ The aforementioned results are likely to place a greater burden on the Democratic United Party. This is because, in a situation where the Democratic United Party candidates are showing weakness among the presidential contenders, they are also experiencing a decline in their party's approval ratings. The increase in undecided voters does not appear unrelated to this reality of the Democratic Party. It is also possible to interpret that the large number of undecided voters are demanding decisions not only from candidate Ahn Cheol-soo but also from the Democratic United Party.

[Figure 22] Perception of Unaffiliated Voters' Presidential Support (%)

4. Virtues of the Next President Desired by the Public

1) Favorability Ratings of Presidential Candidates

- Candidate Park Geun-hye 5.8 points, Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo 6.2 points

■ When asked to rate their favorability towards candidates Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in, and Ahn Cheol-soo on a scale of 10, candidate Ahn Cheol-soo received the highest favorability score. The average favorability score for candidate Ahn among voter panels was 6.2 points. Candidate Park Geun-hye received a favorability score of 5.8, and candidate Moon Jae-in received a score of 5.7.

■ Compared to the second panel survey, there was no significant difference in favorability scores between candidate Ahn Cheol-soo and candidate Moon Jae-in. The candidate who showed a difference was candidate Park Geun-hye. Candidate Park Geun-hye's favorability score was 6.3 in the second panel survey, the same as candidate Ahn, but it decreased by 0.5 points to 5.7 in the third panel survey.

[Figure 23] Favorability Ratings of Prominent Presidential Candidates (Points)

2) Presidential Virtues and Candidate Support

- Core Factors for Support: Competence and Experience > Morality > Ideology and Pledges

■ Voter panels frequently cited 'competence and experience' and 'moral integrity' as key considerations when supporting presidential candidates. The proportion of respondents who cited competence and experience was 33.2%, and the proportion who cited moral integrity was 32.3%. Ideology and policy pledges accounted for 16.7%, electability for 7.1%, party affiliation for 5.3%, and place of origin for 0.5%.

[Figure 24] Key Considerations for Presidential Candidate Support (%)

- Importance of State Management Ability, Support for Candidate Park

- Importance of Communication Skills, Support for Candidate Ahn

■ Presidential candidate support was analyzed based on criteria such as state management ability, moral integrity, and communication skills. Firstly, in a multi-candidate race, 57.5% of voter panels who cited state management ability as a criterion stated they would support candidate Park Geun-hye. The proportion supporting candidate Ahn Cheol-soo was 16.2%, and the proportion supporting candidate Moon Jae-in was 9.6%. Among voter panels who cited moral integrity, a majority supported candidate Park, with a response rate of 38.6%. The proportions supporting candidate Ahn and candidate Moon were 31.0% and 13.6%, respectively. In terms of communication skills, the proportion supporting candidate Ahn was 40.1%, higher than candidate Park's 30.9% and candidate Moon's 16.8%.

[Figure 25] Presidential Virtues and Support for Candidates in Multi-cornered Contests (%)

■ When asked about their ability to manage state affairs in a two-way contest, 65.7% of respondents indicated support for candidate Park Geun-hye, overwhelmingly surpassing Ahn Cheol-soo's 30.5%. In terms of morality, the results were reversed compared to the multi-cornered contest, with 52.0% supporting Ahn Cheol-soo, higher than Park Geun-hye's 42.0%. Regarding communication skills, Ahn received 62.6% support, while Park received 34.0%.

[Figure 26] Presidential Virtues and Support for Candidates in Two-way Contests (%)

3) Evaluation Results by Domain by Voter Panelists

- Park Geun-hye for state management ability, Ahn Cheol-soo for morality and communication skills

■ Voter panelists were asked to evaluate four leading presidential candidates based on their favorability, ability to manage state affairs, morality, and communication skills. Ahn Cheol-soo received the highest evaluations for favorability, morality, and communication skills, while Park Geun-hye received the highest evaluation for ability to manage state affairs.

■ Examining the more specific evaluation results for the remaining three domains, excluding favorability as explained above: first, in terms of morality, Ahn Cheol-soo scored the highest with 6.7 out of 10 points. Moon Jae-in scored 6.1 points, and Park Geun-hye scored 6.0 points. For ability to manage state affairs, Park Geun-hye scored the highest with 6.6 points, followed by Moon Jae-in with 5.8 points, and both Ahn Cheol-soo and Sohn Hak-kyu with 5.4 points. In communication skills, Ahn Cheol-soo scored the highest with 6.6 points, Moon Jae-in scored 6.0 points, and Park Geun-hye scored 5.8 points.

■ Consequently, Park Geun-hye demonstrated strength in managing state affairs but showed relative weaknesses in favorability and communication skills. Ahn Cheol-soo showed strengths in favorability, morality, and communication skills, but many evaluations indicated weaknesses in managing state affairs. These results demonstrate that Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, who have shown differences in the characteristics of their supporters, also exhibit differences in the evaluation scores from voter panelists across various domains.

[Figure 27] Support for Candidates by Domain (Points)