[Public Opinion Briefing No. 119] The Clash Between the Park Geun-hye Phenomenon and the Ahn Cheol-soo Phenomenon: Factors of Support and Candidate Image Positioning Map

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 119] Joint Project by EAI and Korea Research

1. Presidential Election Support Rate Trends: Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in on the Rise, Ahn Cheol-soo Stagnant

2. Perceptual Map of Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo Images

3. August Political Indicators

1. Presidential Election Support Rate Trends: Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in on the Rise, Ahn Cheol-soo Stagnant

Park Geun-hye's Unification Efforts, Moon Jae-in Appears to Benefit from Primary Lead

1) Simple Multi-Candidate Choice: Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in Rising, Ahn Cheol-soo Stagnant

Compared to last month, Park increased by 3.2%p (35.1%→39.4%→42.6%), Ahn decreased by 1.6%p (21.4%→27.4%↓→25.8%)

● According to the regular survey results by EAI and Korea Research, the Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye continued her upward trend for two consecutive months in a multi-candidate scenario. Her support was 35.1% in the June survey and 39.4% in the July survey. In the survey conducted on August 31st and September 1st, her support rose to 42.5%.

● Conversely, Ahn Cheol-soo, who has not yet officially announced his candidacy, saw his support rate drop to 25.8%, a decrease of 1.6%p from the previous month. Considering the margin of error, his support rate can be assessed as stagnant. Meanwhile, despite the boycott by candidates such as Sohn Hak-kyu, Kim Doo-kwan, and Chung Sye-kyun, referred to as non-Moon candidates, and frequent issues during the mobile primary process, Moon Jae-in's support rate showed an increase, albeit within the margin of error. While his support was only 10.5% in the July survey, it rose to 14.8% in the current survey, an increase of 4.3 percentage points.

● Candidates Sohn Hak-kyu, Kim Doo-kwan, and Chung Sye-kyun remain below 3%, failing to break out of their low support levels. Given that support rates in a simple multi-candidate choice survey significantly reflect the size of a candidate's support base, these three candidates demonstrate a weak personal support base.

[Figure 1] Simple Presidential Election Support (Multi-Candidate Choice) (%)

[Table 1] Trend of Simple Support Rate Changes Since September 2011 (%)

Source: EAI･Korea Research Regular Survey, * March data is from EAI·SBS·JoongAng Ilbo·Korea Research General Election Panel 1st round, April data is from 2nd round panel survey

(* Percentage of unknown/no response not indicated)

2) 1:1 Hypothetical Matchup: Park vs. Ahn Neck-and-Neck, Park vs. Moon Gap of 13.8%p

Park Geun-hye 46.8% vs. Ahn Cheol-soo 45.2%, Park Geun-hye 52.2% vs. Moon Jae-in 38.4%

● In a hypothetical matchup between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, Park Geun-hye garnered 46.8% and Ahn Cheol-soo received 45.2%, indicating an extremely close contest. In the previous month's survey, Park Geun-hye had 44.1% and Ahn Cheol-soo had 47.8%. In the current survey, the rankings have shifted within the margin of error. Unlike the first phase of the 'Ahn Cheol-soo whirlwind' before the April 11th general election, when Ahn Cheol-soo led by more than 15%p, the current situation is a close balance with strong mobilization from both ruling and opposition parties, and progressive and conservative camps.

● Meanwhile, in a hypothetical matchup between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, Park Geun-hye secured 52.2% and Moon Jae-in received 38.4%, a gap of 13.8%p. This is a slight reduction from the 18.0%p gap in the July survey.

[Figure 1] Hypothetical 1:1 Matchup Support Rates: Park vs. Ahn, Park vs. Moon (%)

3) Reasons for Supporting Candidate: Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in Benefit from Anti-Park Geun-hye Sentiment

Park Geun-hye supporters - 7.5% due to dislike of Ahn Cheol-soo, 7.7% due to dislike of Moon Jae-in

Ahn Cheol-soo supporters - 24.2% due to dislike of Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in supporters - 31.5% due to dislike of Park Geun-hye

● When asked for additional reasons for supporting a candidate in a 1:1 matchup between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, 73.0% of Park Geun-hye's supporters stated they supported her because they liked her more, while 7.5% cited dislike of Ahn Cheol-soo. The remaining 19.6% were undecided/don't know/no answer. In contrast, among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, 65.9% supported him because they liked him more, and 24.2% cited dislike of Park Geun-hye, indicating that antipathy towards the opposing candidate played a relatively significant role.

● This trend is even more pronounced in a 1:1 matchup between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in. 76.7% of Park Geun-hye's supporters responded that they preferred her, while only 7.7% cited dislike of Moon Jae-in. On the other hand, among those who would support Moon Jae-in in a 1:1 matchup, only 59.6% stated they supported him because they liked him more than other candidates. The response citing dislike of Park Geun-hye as the reason for supporting Moon Jae-in was 31.5%.

[Figure 2] Reasons for Choosing Candidate in 1:1 Matchup: Park vs. Ahn (%)

[Figure 2] Reasons for Choosing Candidate in 1:1 Matchup: Park vs. Moon (%)

4) Public Opinion on Park Geun-hye's Unification Efforts and Ahn Cheol-soo's Political Path

Park Geun-hye's Unification Efforts: 56.1% view her as a leader embracing opponents, 62.7% believe she should continue these efforts.

● Park Geun-hye's upward trend appears to be influenced by positive evaluations of her post-Saenuri Party primary actions, including visiting the grave of former President Roh Moo-hyun and meeting with Lee Hee-ho, the widow of former President Kim Dae-jung, as well as her attempted visit to the Jeon Tae-il statue and foundation, although it was ultimately unsuccessful. When asked about her 'national unification efforts, such as visiting the grave of former President Roh Moo-hyun and attempting to visit the foundation honoring Jeon Tae-il, who sacrificed himself for the labor movement, after becoming the Saenuri Party's presidential candidate,' 56.1% evaluated these actions as 'qualities and efforts of a national leader seeking to include even opposing factions,' while 37.0% viewed them as 'insincere political maneuvers to become president.' Conversely, among Democratic Party supporters, critical attitudes were dominant at 65.4%, but 31.1% held a positive view, which is a considerable response given their opposition to Park Geun-hye.

● Regarding future unification efforts, the response favoring continuation was higher. As shown in [Figure 4], 62.7% urged her to continue these unification efforts, while only 28.7% believed they should be halted. Similarly, even among Democratic Party supporters, nearly half (45.7%) responded that Park should continue her unification efforts, confirming that public support for national unity is significantly widespread. While the opposition's criticism based on a lack of sincerity may rally some of their supporters, it also carries the potential for considerable backlash and defection.

[Figure 4] Attitude towards Unification Efforts such as Visiting Former President Roh's Grave and Attempting to Visit the Jeon Tae-il Foundation (%)

Ahn Cheol-soo: 34.6% support candidacy vs. 41.4% oppose candidacy; 'Unification' vs. 'Independent Candidacy' Neck-and-Neck

● Regarding public opinion on Ahn Cheol-soo's candidacy and the possibility of unifying with opposition candidates if he runs, opinions are divided, with a significant portion remaining undecided. For his candidacy, 34.6% believe he should run, while 41.4% believe he should not, with the latter slightly leading. However, 24.0% responded 'don't know,' indicating that a quarter of voters have yet to make up their minds.

● On the issue of candidate unification, 37.2% favor unifying with opposition candidates, while 38.1% favor running independently, resulting in a near tie. 'Don't know' responses accounted for 24.7%. Compared to the July survey, the proportion favoring unification decreased by 5.1%p to 37.2%, while the proportion favoring independent candidacy increased by 2.2%p to 38.1%. Notably, in the July survey, among those who supported Ahn Cheol-soo in a 1:1 hypothetical matchup, 65.5% favored unification with opposition candidates and 26.9% favored independent candidacy. However, in the current survey, only 55.5% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters favored unification, while 32.9% supported independent candidacy. This suggests that recent disappointment with the Democratic Party's primary process is strengthening the inclination towards independent candidacy among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters.

[Figure 4] Attitude towards Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy and Candidate Unification (%)

Reasons for supporting Ahn's candidacy: 76.4% expect 'new politics,' 13.9% are anti-Park/anti-Saenuri.

Reasons for opposing Ahn's candidacy: 43.5% believe he should contribute outside of politics, 42.5% believe he would be incapable of governing/politics.

● In this survey, respondents were asked for their reasons for supporting or opposing Ahn Cheol-soo's candidacy. Among the 277 respondents who supported his candidacy, the overwhelming majority (76.4%) cited 'expectations for new politics, believing he can realize values and visions different from existing politicians and parties.' Only 13.9% cited 'to prevent Park Geun-hye and the Saenuri Party from taking power,' and 6.0% cited 'because Moon Jae-in or the Democratic Party are insufficient in realizing reform/progressive values.'

● Conversely, among the 331 respondents who opposed his candidacy, the most common reason (43.5%) was 'believing he has more to contribute to society in areas outside of politics.' Another significant reason (42.5%) was 'believing he would be incapable of governing or politics as president.' The response 'it is regrettable that he would be hurt by entering politics' accounted for 9.7%, and 'because I hope for the election of another candidate I support' was only 2.6%. Considering that a considerable portion of the negative responses regarding Ahn Cheol-soo's candidacy came from Park Geun-hye supporters, a follow-up question was posed to the 73 individuals among those who would vote for Ahn Cheol-soo in a 1:1 matchup but preferred he not run. While the overall ranking of reasons remained the same, the distribution differed: 49.3% cited a desire for him to 'contribute in areas outside of politics,' and 25% expressed concern about his capability in governance/politics, a lower proportion than among all respondents. Concerns about him being hurt were higher at 17.4% compared to the overall responses.

[Figure 4] Reasons for Supporting Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy Among 277 Supporters (%)

[Figure 5] Reasons for Opposing Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy Among 331 Opponents (%)

2. Perceptual Map of Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo Images

Park Geun-hye Excels in Governance Capability, Ahn Cheol-soo in Personal Appeal

1) Image Analysis: Park Leads in 6 Categories, Ahn in 4

Park - Leads in Patriotism 68.8%, Recognition of National Issues 65.2%, Crisis Management Ability 57.8%, Predictability 57.5%

Ahn - Leads in Communication Skills 78.5%, Integrity 71.1%, Appearance Appeal 57.7%; Lack of Experience 76.2%

● This survey utilized political marketing techniques to compare the images of leading candidates Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo through a perceptual map generated using correspondence analysis. This study categorized images of political leaders into dimensions of governance capability and personal capability/appeal, partially adopting (6 items) and modifying a 14-item leadership image survey framework developed by the Anglo-American joint institution MORI, resulting in a total of 10 measurement items. For each candidate, respondents were asked whether they associated each measurement item with that candidate.

● [Table 2] summarizes the response rates for each measurement item, indicating agreement with Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo. Items related to governance capability include (1) Patriotism (MORI), (2) Understanding of Korea's Current Issues (MORI), (3) Crisis Management Ability (MORI), (4) Predictability and Stability in Governing Style, and (5) Ability to Handle North-South/International Issues. Dimensions of personal capability include (1) Integrity, (2) Appearance Appeal, (3) Communication with Subordinates/General Public (MORI), (4) Lack of Experience (MORI), and (5) Disdain for the Common People (MORI). The 'Lack of Experience' and 'Disdain for the Common People' items should not be confused with agreement/disagreement on negative statements. Expressing these response rates as a radial graph results in [Figure 6].

[Table 2] EAI Political Leader Image Perceptual Map Model (Modified MORI Model): Percentage Responding 'Yes'

[Figure 6] Agreement Rates by Measurement Item for Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo Leader Images (%)

2) Ahn vs. Park Image Perceptual Map via Correspondence Analysis

● Frequency analysis reveals that for components of governance capability such as patriotism, understanding of Korea's current issues, crisis management ability, and predictability/stability, Park Geun-hye not only received a majority of positive evaluations but also surpassed Ahn Cheol-soo. Conversely, Ahn Cheol-soo received very high ratings for communication skills with subordinates and the general public, and integrity, categorized under personal capabilities. Appearance, a topic of public discussion, also received positive evaluations for Ahn Cheol-soo. For the 'lack of experience' item, 76.2% of respondents agreed regarding Ahn Cheol-soo, identifying it as his biggest weakness, while only 30.4% agreed for Park Geun-hye. On the other hand, Park Geun-hye faced relatively more negative evaluations regarding communication skills.

● Using the respondent data for each item, correspondence analysis was performed to create a visual perceptual map of the images for each candidate, as shown in [Figure 6]. Similar to the frequency analysis results, voters' perceptions of patriotism, understanding of Korea's current issues, crisis management ability, and predictable/stable governing style are closely associated with Park Geun-hye. In contrast, Ahn Cheol-soo is relatively closer to communication skills with subordinates and the general public, appearance appeal, and integrity. The image of lacking experience is predominantly associated with Ahn Cheol-soo. Meanwhile, while Park Geun-hye holds a slight advantage in ability to handle North-South and security issues, both candidates appear distant from this dimension. The image of disdain for the common people also did not align with either candidate's image.

[Figure 6] Park Geun-hye/Ahn Cheol-soo Image Perceptual Map via Correspondence Analysis

3. August Political Indicators

Government Approval Rating Rises from 23.9% to 29.6% - Positive Response to Assertive Stance on Dokdo and Against Japan

Party Support Rates: Saenuri Party 46.2%, Democratic United Party 34.8%

● The government approval rating rose to 29.6%, halting the downward trend observed around the general election and showing an upward movement. President Lee Myung-bak's visit to Dokdo and subsequent firm response against Japan appear to have garnered public support. This situation is similar to April 2006 during the Roh Moo-hyun administration, when a strong statement against Japan led to a rise in approval ratings amidst a decline. However, that increase was short-lived, and the experience of a significant defeat in the May local elections demonstrated that rallying support through foreign policy tends to be a temporary event rather than a means to broaden the support base. It is unlikely that President Lee Myung-bak's government approval rating can sustain its upward trend solely through a hardline stance against Japan.

● Meanwhile, party support rates showed little change from the previous month. The Saenuri Party maintained a lead of 11.4%p with 46.2% support, compared to the Democratic United Party's 34.8%. The Unified Progressive Party has fallen below 5% following internal conflicts and violent incidents after the general election, where its support had briefly risen to nearly 10%. Since then, party support has shown a tendency to converge around these two major parties, with the Saenuri Party consistently maintaining its lead in party support since the April 11th general election.

[Figure 7] Changes in National Approval Ratings (%)

[Figure 8] Changes in Party Approval Ratings (%)